Thomas Mulcair... III

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KenS
Thomas Mulcair... III

becaue old goat said he couldn't wait for it

ottawaobserver

Unable to recognize sarcasm this early in the day, I see.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

It's New Year's Day. Cut him some slack, bro. Laughing

Unionist

Ya mean sis, bro. Kiss

Fidel

So Mulcair's no good. And Jack's all washed up. Tear up your cards, dippers!! There we're done with this thread. We're in, we're out, and nobody gets hurt.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

see what I mean? New Year's Day finds some of us (me) totally disoriented!Embarassed  Must have been bad eggnog.

 

ETA: going back to bed, have a computer headache. Frown

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

New Year's Day and another peaceful protester is killed by Israeli security forces at Bil'in, site of a long standing non-violent civil disobedience struggle over the so-called "security fence".

http://tinyurl.com/25n9rdx

Another year of occupation begins.

Sorry, but I've been to Bil'in, seen the field full of spent tear gas cannisters and I'm not impressed with aspiring NDP leadership candidates who choose to comfort the perpetrators of these kinds of crimes.

 

KenS

How dare you take this thread seriously.

Fidel

Boom Boom wrote:

see what I mean? New Year's Day finds some of us (me) totally disoriented!Embarassed  Must have been bad eggnog.

 

ETA: going back to bed, have a computer headache. Frown

Make sure to tell us what your doc says about those headaches, BB. Happy New Year!

Unionist

radiorahim wrote:

 

Sorry, but I've been to Bil'in, seen the field full of spent tear gas cannisters and I'm not impressed with aspiring NDP leadership candidates who choose to comfort the perpetrators of these kinds of crimes.

 

Likewise, rr. I posted the story [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/international-news-and-politics/zionist-crimes#c..., but I think you got the context right for Canadians.

KenS

Hey- I've got a serious problem.

I started this thread, and forgot that when I do, and no matter what I do with the various dialogue boxes in "New Forum Topic".... the lovely babble automata sends a message to my email for every post... and apparently every time someone edist their post.

How do I get rid of this?

Preferably, get rid of that happening again.

Or, at least, get rid of it for this thread?

oldgoat

The lovely babble automata, (pictured here...)

 

..is intended to discourage people from starting threads.  Bad business, thread starting.

 

Actually, I think you can set up your own account so that doesn't happen.  I'll look into your account and see if I can do anything.  If you suddenly find you can't post, or you've turned into a newt or something, email me.

KenS

Cant post, OK

Newt, might be a problem.

Especially today

oldgoat

Ok, I unchecked a couple of notification options.  See what happens now.

KenS

c

an

typ only

wit nose

send help

Fidel

If I go to this address: http://rabble.ca/subscriptions I can see which threads I've subscribed to by viewing the threads tab and check or uncheck them. I think you can stop email notifications on that page left-hand side.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Fidel wrote:

Make sure to tell us what your doc says about those headaches, BB. Happy New Year!

Got up and went for a walk with the neighbour's dog, and threw a load of firewood into the basement - feel better now.

Fidel

Good to hear.

Skinny Dipper

Personally, I think the next federal elction will be Jack Layton's last as leader of the NDP. While he has resilience, his battle with cancer has weakened him.  The NDP's electoral fortunes will depend on how Layton campaigns and how he frames the camapaign.  If he uses, the last election's "Putting working people first" cliché, he won't add more seats.  Also, Layton will need to make himself relevant in a media campaign that will be focused on Harper and Ignatieff.  In terms of issues, I think there will be less focus on the environment and more on the economy.

Thomas Mulcair will likely be a strong leadership candidate.  He is very intelligent and highly skilled in parliamentary politics.  I have heard that he does have a big ego.  How he controls it will affect his performance in a leadership race.  Yes, a lot of rabblers and other progressives do not like Mulcair's stance on Israel.  However, I don't the issue of Israel and Palestine will be minor in a campaign focused on the Canadian economy, environment, and heath care.  If Mulcair can keep the Middle East issue low key or at least offer to tip the balance scale so that the needs of the Palestinians will be recognized, he may diffuse this issue enough so that it won't become an irritant in the campaign.  Within Canada, while Mulcair could be an asset for the NDP in Quebec, he will need to improve the fortunes of the party in other parts of Canada where the NDP is currently lacking support such as inner suburban Toronto.

Paul Dewar could also become a strong candidate for leader of the NDP.  He is articulate and could unite the NDP members around him.  He doesn't seem to be as outspoken as Mulcair.  He will need to make his presence known to the public if he wants traction.

Libby Davies does have strong roots as a social democrat.  Die-hard progressives may support her.  However, will she be able to connect with Canadians across the country?

KenS

Whether Israel/Palestine is in important issue to Canadians does not determine how important a criteria it is to the members who are looking at Leadership prospects. I know that it is not anywhere near as crucial an issue to the braod membership, as it is here on Babble. But...

It is at least fairly important to the activists who in practive move the NDP. So just to look at hypotheticals- if Tom Mulcair were running for Leader with his current stand... I would confidently say he could not win the leadership. You cannot win the leadership while alienating a significant bloc of the cadre.

I am equally confident that wishing Libby to run is a vain hope. It's just not her style. Getting into Caucus ttends towrds the folks with large or at least strong egos. But even among them, its a limited number who who would engage in more than idle fantasies of themselves as Leader.

Skinny Dipper

Hi Ken,

I did make the point that if the Middle East issue did come up, Mulcair would have to moderate his opinion.  I do think a voting block on the Middle East issue is relatively small.  In a close leadership race, five percent could make a difference between winning or losing the leadership.

This may be off topic, but I was looking at the UBC Election Forecaster.  In the next federal election, I believe that the NDP will need different strategies to get votes from Conservatives and Liberal supporters.  It's not enough to go after Liberal voters.  This leaves the Conservatives open to win a majority government because of a vote split between the Liberals and NDP.  Jack Layton and the NDP will need to target the mythical "Tim Hortons" Conservative voter with a frame that focuses on home-family economic needs.  For example, a message that the Harper Conservative government spent $1 billion on the G8/G20 summits won't have the same impact as Harper spent $114 of your hard-earned family's income for his wasteful fete.  A better example might be Harper spent $114 of your family's income on a G20 photo-op for himself.  Now, he wants to spend another $2,400 of your family's money on the puchase of untendered jets and the maintenance of them.  $21 billion is a meaningless number; $2,400 makes sense to most families.

Regionally, if I were Jack Layton, I would focus the campaign on BC, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia.  In these provinces, the NDP can make great gains.  Layton can take pit stops in the other provinces, give media interviews, and meet the locals.  Leave Quebec alone as the marginal gains of winning that province's seats will be very low.  Yes, visit Mulcair's riding and the ones in Gatineau.  The NDP can achieve official opposition status after the election.  The Bloc Quebecois is not a threat to that status.  In Ontario, the NDP can expand out of downtown Toronto and gain a couple of extra seats in Toronto.  The party can get into small city southwestern Ontario.  There may be seats available in London, Kitchener, and Guelph.

ottawaobserver

The UBC Election Forecaster is a wonderful piece of software, but it still has limitations. It assumes that things will be as they were, and doesn't account for incumbency vs. open seats, just for two examples.

Stephen Harper has succeeded - and Jack Layton too, to a lesser but perhaps not yet fully realized extent - for the very reason that they see things differently than they were, and make moves to bring about new realities.

Go back and try to use the UBC forecaster to try and predict the St. John's East or Edmonton-Strathcona or even Gatineau results of 2008 based on 2004 results.

Ah, but those are unique examples, you say. Well, then, you're making my point for me, because it was candidate recruitment by Jack Layton that made all of those possible.

We might have projected upwards from 17% in Outremont to 20% or 22%, but by recruiting Mulcair we suddenly won the seat with over 40% of the vote.

So, to argue where Layton should travel next campaign based on the UBC Forecaster would be wrong-headed I believe. The leader's tour is of course the most strategic expenditure of the campaign (also the largest), so it should have some well-conceived strategic basis, alright. But give Layton a bit of credit for moxy. I think his performance to date merits at least that.

Skinny Dipper

I will agree that no campaign should exclusively rely on the UBC election forecaster.  However, any party should have a feel for which seats they may gain.  If a party received only 5% in a particular riding, I would not expect that party to win that seat unless it had some Mulroney-esque messiah to gain converts.  Unfortunately for the Progressive Conservatives, those converts left for the Bloc and Reform parties in 1993.

ottawaobserver

Skinny Dipper wrote:

I will agree that no campaign should exclusively rely on the UBC election forecaster.  However, any party should have a feel for which seats they may gain.  If a party received only 5% in a particular riding, I would not expect that party to win that seat unless ...

OK, but there's a fair bit of room between 5% of the vote and a 5% margin. Some non-5% margin ridings have other things going for them (candidate, party history, the right demographics, a good issue, etc.). They'll have started off with more than 5% in all likelihood, but would not otherwise show up in a UBC predictor-type of simulation.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Skinny Dipper wrote:
 The NDP can achieve official opposition status after the election. 

 

my prediction: not gonna happen.

 

Skinny Dipper wrote:
 The Bloc Quebecois is not a threat to that status.

 

 my prediction: The BQ will continue to have more seats after the next election than the NDP unless something truly dramatic happens.

 

 ETA: There's something to be said for raising expectations  - but you also set yourself up for crushing disappointment.

 

 ETA: Here's Mulcair recently: Mr. Mulcair said polling shows no party stands to gain now from an election.

Lens Solution

Boom Boom wrote:

 my prediction: The BQ will continue to have more seats after the next election than the NDP unless something truly dramatic happens.

But why is that?  Shouldn't the NDP be able to beat the BQ in seat count by now?  It's not the 1990's anymore when the party was struggling to keep official party status.  The NDP is almost back to its full power.

And isn't it going to be difficult to challenge for Official Opposition if we still have the NDP stuck in 4th place in the House?  Every day when I watch Question Period, the NDP is always the last party to speak, and it makes it difficult to convince Canadians that we can be influential if the NDP is always last in party size.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I'm feeling generous today, so I'll be optimistic (finally...) that the NDP can conceivably beat the BQ in seat count.... either in the next election or the one after that. I base my feeling on my perception that the Liberals are sinking - and are probably desperate, and desperate people do irrational things. I don't see the Liberals getting good press anywhere, and Iggy continues to underwhelm. While the electorate deserting the Liberals will likely move to the Cons, all of the hardcore anti-Harper vote will likely go to the NDP.

 

(by the way, if you see the Liberals actually getting good press these days, please post it - it's been so long since I've seen a 'good news' Liberal story Laughing )

remind remind's picture

Lens Solution wrote:
...when I watch Question Period, the NDP is always the last party to speak, and it makes it difficult to convince Canadians that we can be influential if the NDP is always last in party size.

Do you really think most Canadians know that the NDP speaking last means they are the last in party size?

In reality, the last speaker in any type of venue usually gets the 'last word' and is actually heard.

ottawaobserver

It was reported towards the end of CTV Power Play today that NDP federal office has just had a big upgrade/renovation in order to be a state-of-the-art election nerve centre (I hate the term "war room"), to meet or beat what the Conservatives have. They also just re-activated their @NDP_ElectionHQ Twitter account.