What will it take to move the NDP from 20% to 25% in the polls?

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Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Jack has been (and is) a great leader. I think at some time in the not-too-distant future I'd like to see Mulclair succeed him. How old is Mulclair, anyone know? He looks a youngish middle-age to me.

Stockholm

he's 55

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

DaveW wrote:

back to Quebec:

if anywhere CAN produce a huge electoral swing, wiping out a party and its history, it is Quebec, as we have seen it 2-3 times in my life, the first time with the dynamic Rene Levesque who helped found and shape a young party and took -- from its founding to taking power -- eight (8) years total; not bad

but granted, the 1970s PQ had 2 elements the NDP and/or NDP-Quebec does not have today: a giant-sized issue generating lots of enthusiasm, and a charismatic leader who everybody could identify with, to some  degree

the second  model, and no doubt this is the first and only time Mulroney ever gets any praise on this board, is of course the federal Tories in 1984+ , who transformed a super-solid Liberal red bastion into a blue sea; I lived in Outremont riding in 1988 and it swung Tory for the first time .... since Confederation(!), so that is a BIG swing;

how did they do it?

a weak leader for Liberals, electorate finally tired of them after Trudeau, a social-economic opening (nationalism, free trade) that Liberals could not match, add a glad-handing happy-warrior Conservative leader and, shazzam!

some elements match today's Quebec, but I don't see the NDP making headway without that kind of once-a-generation alignment of political events  -- but you never know, eh?

 

 

You forgot the previous "great wipe-out" in Quebec-the PC landslide/Liberal collapse of 1958.  The factor THAT shared with 1984 that you didn't mention was that it was the first time in a long-period in which the Liberals didn't have a francophone leader(1958 was the first election after St. Laurent's retirement).  Quebec Liberal loyalty was often more to the leader than the party(and in 1984, this was made more complex by the fact that Mulroney was the first bilingual Quebecer ever to lead the PC's)  One pattern that emerges in Quebec is that, when neither "old party" has a francophone as leader, the voters tend to shop around more.  It would be interesting to imagine(it won't happen, but it's interesting to think about)what might occur if Layton were replaced by Mulcair as leader in this regard.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

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