What will the NDP do when they finish third behind the Liberals and Conservatives?

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Adam T
What will the NDP do when they finish third behind the Liberals and Conservatives?

n/m

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Adam T

I don't really have much to add, but this seems to be the far more likely outcome.

trotwood73

Hmmmm.... I dunno. Maybe they could borrow a page from the Liberals' playbook when it happened to them:

Find some clueless, pretty-boy named Justin with tons of fans but no experience and make him their leader.  Yeah, that could work....

New NDP leader ?
[photo from the Windsor Star]

 I am sure the NDP appreciates your genuine concern, but they'll manage just fine.

Aristotleded24

The strange thing is, I've pointed out numerous times that Naheed Nenshi and Brian Bowman were both relative unknowns when they launched their respective mayoral bids, and barely registered as serious contenders in the polls until right before election day. Why hasn't anybody who gloats about the NDP finishing third (I'm thinking primarily of Debater and AdamT) acknowledged that little fact?

Adam T

Aristotleded24 wrote:

The strange thing is, I've pointed out numerous times that Naheed Nenshi and Brian Bowman were both relative unknowns when they launched their respective mayoral bids, and barely registered as serious contenders in the polls until right before election day. Why hasn't anybody who gloats about the NDP finishing third (I'm thinking primarily of Debater and AdamT) acknowledged that little fact?

I've actually never mentioned it before and I've certainly never 'gloated' about it. I don't disagree with you.  The NDP started out in 3rd in 2011. I didn't discount the possibility it could happen again, I merely pointed out that it is the less likely scenario.

Adam T

trotwood73 wrote:

Hmmmm.... I dunno. Maybe they could borrow a page from the Liberals' playbook when it happened to them:

Find some clueless, pretty-boy named Justin with tons of fans but no experience and make him their leader.  Yeah, that could work....

While I would have much preferred to have seen Marc Garneau or even Martin Cauchon chosen by the Liberals, and I don't deny that Justin Trudeau never would have won the leadership race without the dad and the last name, he was an M.P for 4 years prior to his election as leader. He hardly had 'no experience'.

swallow swallow's picture

The reason this thread isn't as interesting as the other is that a third-place NDP in a minority situation would clearly seek to work with the Liberals if possible - as has happened in the past. 

People are not at all sure which party the Liberals would seek to work with, in the (less likely) case that they finish third. 

clambake

*If* that were there to happen, i'd say they stay the course with Mulcair (especially in a minority situation) while highlighting Trudeau's austerity and broken promises to the public.

If they finish in third in 2015 and 2019 with 40 seats, then they should think about Nathan Cullen or Megan Leslie as leader. But that's the worst case scenario. And i'd probably be done with politics in either scenario.

Debater

Aristotleded24 wrote:

The strange thing is, I've pointed out numerous times that Naheed Nenshi and Brian Bowman were both relative unknowns when they launched their respective mayoral bids, and barely registered as serious contenders in the polls until right before election day. Why hasn't anybody who gloats about the NDP finishing third (I'm thinking primarily of Debater and AdamT) acknowledged that little fact?

I have not gloated or predicted that the NDP will finish 3rd.  I don't make those sort of predictions this far out about elections.

All I have said is that the trendlines have been very poor for the NDP for a long time in polling, by-election results, fundraising, & MP's quitting on Mulcair every few months.

Adam T

Debater wrote:

All I have said is that the trendlines have been very poor for the NDP for a long time in polling, by-election results, fundraising, & MP's quitting on Mulcair every few months.

I'm not sure the NDP is doing all that badly in fundraising.

Also, annoying grammatical correction: it should be MPs, not MP's, there is no apostrophe.

 

 

Adam T

swallow wrote:

The reason this thread isn't as interesting as the other is that a third-place NDP in a minority situation would clearly seek to work with the Liberals if possible - as has happened in the past. 

People are not at all sure which party the Liberals would seek to work with, in the (less likely) case that they finish third. 

I don't know why you would say that.  Every time there has been a Liberal or NDP minority government federally or provincially, (Canada 1972-1974, 2004-2006 Liberal minority governments) (Ontario 1985-1987, 2009-2013 Liberal minority governments) (Manitoba in the late 1960s early 1970s NDP minority government) (Saskatchewan 1999-2003 NDP minority government) the Liberals and NDP worked together, though some Liberals did join the 'Sask' Party in Saskatchewan.

Though it's not entirely relevent when there was a P.C minority government in Nova Scotia it was the NDP that propped them up.  The only time the Liberals propped the Conservatives up was nationally from 2006-2008 when they were in no position to force an election and really didn't have much choice (not that they were right to do so). 

BTW, is anybody else unhappy that the rightwing parties in Saskatchewan and Yukon are named after the province/territory?  In British Columbia it is illegal for a political party to have the phrase 'British Columbia' in the name of the party as it is seen as an endorsement by the province of that party.

Debater

Adam T wrote:

Debater wrote:

All I have said is that the trendlines have been very poor for the NDP for a long time in polling, by-election results, fundraising, & MP's quitting on Mulcair every few months.

I'm not sure the NDP is doing all that badly in fundraising.

Also, annoying grammatical correction: it should be MPs, not MP's, there is no apostrophe.

1.  The NDP fundraising numbers aren't bad historically, no.  In fact, both the Liberals and the NDP are raising more money than they used to because in the Harper era with the huge Conservative machine, the opposition parties have been forced to raise their fundraising game in order to compete.  But the problem for the NDP is that although their overall fundraising numbers are solid, they are still 3rd in that area as well.  The Conservatives remain ahead, and the Liberals are well ahead of the NDP.  The NDP needed to be 2nd in fundraising at least in order to have momentum.  By being 3rd in that area as well, it reinforces their lack of momentum.

2.  I was typing quickly and didn't realize I added the extra apostrophe.  I will watch my punctuation more carefully in the future. Wink

Debater

Adam T wrote:

While I would have much preferred to have seen Marc Garneau or even Martin Cauchon chosen by the Liberals, and I don't deny that Justin Trudeau never would have won the leadership race without the dad and the last name, he was an M.P for 4 years prior to his election as leader. He hardly had 'no experience'.

1.  Garneau is a smart man.  And obviously he has a unique background (astronaut! Cool).  But Garneau would have kept the Liberals in 3rd place if he had been leader.  He's an intellectual geek.  He's not a natural politician.  And he almost lost his own seat in 2011.  Chantal Hébert wrote about this 2 years ago during the Liberal leadership.  Trudeau was willing to do the hard work of running against a BQ MP, while Garneau wanted a safe seat.

--

Excerpt from: HEBERT: Is Marc Garneau’s Liberal leadership bid lost in space?

At the outset of a long-shot Liberal leadership bid, former astronaut Marc Garneau’s biggest liability is not that he is so strikingly different from the political rock star he seeks to beat but that he is too much like Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff.

In essence, Garneau — who launched his campaign in Montreal and Ottawa on Wednesday — is asking a party that was just brought to the edge of the abyss by two nerds to select a third one as leader.

. . .

Be that as it may, Trudeau and Garneau’s courses veered in slightly different directions after their offers to run in Outremont were rebuffed.

While the first set out to conquer the Bloc Québécois riding of Papineau, Garneau lobbied hard to run in the Liberal fortress of Westmount-Ville-Marie.

But in 2011, even one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada turned out not to be immune from the Quebec orange wave. Garneau was Ignatieff’s Quebec point man in the lead-up to and during the last election.

While Trudeau tripled his majority in Papineau, Garneau hung on to Westmount-Ville-Marie by only 642 votes.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/thenovascotian/209498-hebert-is-marc-garnea...

--

2.  There was a time when Cauchon would have been a good candidate. (eg. former Justice Minister, legalized gay marriage etc.)  But he had been out of politics for too long by the time he came back, entered the leadership race at the last minute for some reason, and had been unable to get elected in Outremont against Mulcair in 2011.  His time had past.

Adam T

Debater wrote:

1.  Garneau is a smart man.  And obviously he has a unique background (astronaut! Cool).  But Garneau would have kept the Liberals in 3rd place if he had been leader.  He's an intellectual geek.  He's not a natural politician.  And he almost lost his own seat in 2011.  Chantal Hébert wrote about this 2 years ago during the Liberal leadership.  Trudeau was willing to do the hard work of running against a BQ MP, while Garneau wanted a safe seat.

--

Excerpt from: HEBERT: Is Marc Garneau’s Liberal leadership bid lost in space?

At the outset of a long-shot Liberal leadership bid, former astronaut Marc Garneau’s biggest liability is not that he is so strikingly different from the political rock star he seeks to beat but that he is too much like Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff.

In essence, Garneau — who launched his campaign in Montreal and Ottawa on Wednesday — is asking a party that was just brought to the edge of the abyss by two nerds to select a third one as leader.

2.  There was a time when Cauchon would have been a good candidate. (eg. former Justice Minister, legalized gay marriage etc.)  But he had been out of politics for too long by the time he came back, entered the leadership race at the last minute for some reason, and had been unable to get elected in Outremont against Mulcair in 2011.  His time had past.

1.Stephane Dion and Ignatieff were 'arts' nerds (I never thought of Ignatieff as a nerd either, more like a bully) while Garneau is a 'science' nerd. I find many Canadians don't like 'arts academics' but do like 'science academics'.  Carl Sagan and then later Steve Jobs and less so Bill Gates has made science 'cool'.

2.I hope Cauchon's time hasn't past, he's only 52.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I'd like to ask the mods to change the word "when" to "if" in the thread title.

It's not as if the outcome that title predicts is already a certainty, and flatly stating that it is is simply arrogant.

If the NDP finishes third, it will take a hard look at its choices over the last four years, and, hopefully, make better choices in the future.

The party has come back from far worse.  Twenty-one years ago, it was reduced to nine seats.

Debater

1.  Polls showed that Garneau would have had trouble getting the Liberals out of 3rd place, whereas Trudeau would take the Liberals way up in the standings.  The polls turned out to be accurate on the latter, so I don't see why they wouldn't have been accurate on the former.  As Hébert said above, Garneau just isn't a natural politician and hasn't been able to demonstrate that he can even do well in his own seat.  Luckily for him he is running in a better-distributed riding in 2015 and will have Trudeau to help boost his numbers.

2.  52 is old in political terms when you've been out of elected office for a decade and when you've failed in your recent attempts to get back into it.

Cauchon can go back to his law career at Gowlings, and so has plenty of professional years left in the regular work world, yes, but probably not in politics.

Unless he's really planning on carrying through with what he said he would do during the Liberal leadership - run in his original hometown of Charlevoix instead of running in Outremont again.  But Charlevoix hasn't been Liberal territory in many years, and I haven't heard anything about his plans lately.

onlinediscountanvils

Ken Burch wrote:

I'd like to ask the mods to change the word "when" to "if" in the thread title.

It's not as if the outcome that title predicts is already a certainty, and flatly stating that it is is simply arrogant.

I think the "when" is a well-deserved poke at the many threads this board has seen that have proclaimed with equal certainty the inevitable demise of various Liberal governments/leaders and the inevitable triumph of the NDP. [see: Christy Clark is toast and Andrea Horwath WILL be the next premier threads, etc.] Those threads are just as arrogant, not to mention embarrassingly wrong.

Debater

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

I'd like to ask the mods to change the word "when" to "if" in the thread title.

It's not as if the outcome that title predicts is already a certainty, and flatly stating that it is is simply arrogant.

I think the "when" is a well-deserved poke at the many threads this board has seen that have proclaimed with equal certainty the inevitable demise of various Liberal governments/leaders and the inevitable triumph of the NDP. [see: Christy Clark is toast and Andrea Horwath WILL be the next premier threads, etc.] Those threads are just as arrogant, not to mention embarrassingly wrong.

Exactly.  And that's something I've been trying to point out for some time, too.

There are constant threads here predicting huge NDP victories, and the demise of various Liberal governments (and occasionally a Conservative one), and yet there is rarely any acknowledgement afterwards of how far off base they are.

I was looking through the Liberal leadership thread from 2012 a few days ago (something I'll come back to at another time) and througout the thread it is full of 2 main predictions.

1.  Christy Clark is finished and Adrian Dix will be guaranteed to win the 2013 B.C. Election  (That sure turned out to be wrong).

2.  Justin Trudeau will just be a flash in the pan and will only have a brief honeymoon period atop the polls in April 2013 before plumetting down to 3rd. (Boy did that ever turn out to be wrong!)

It's fine for people to have their own predictions & opinions and to root for their favourities, but there has been an arrogance and a sense of entitlement by some in the NDP over the past few years that reminds me of the way the Paul Martin Liberals behaved a decade ago.  I would have thought the NDP would learn from that.

NorthReport

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Wh am I missing?

 

onlinediscountanvils

I don't think you remember much of anything, NR.

NorthReport

who do you think you are kidding?

onlinediscountanvils

Obviously not you, Encyclopedia Brown.

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Wh am I missing?

That's offensive. I should be first in that line, or at least second. I wonder how many of us in that list consider ourselves "Liberals" as opposed to voters who are planning to vote Liberal in 2015. I consider myself the second because I am supporting the Liberals with Trudeau at the helm not the Liberals in general. If Iggy or Rae came back I would flip to the NDP or protest vote for the Greens.

trotwood73

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Wh am I missing?

That's offensive. I should be first in that line, or at least second. I wonder how many of us in that list consider ourselves "Liberals" as opposed to voters who are planning to vote Liberal in 2015. [...]

I often wonder how many people here are posting from 110 Cremazie W in Montreal or 81 Metcalfe Street in Ottawa? Wink

onlinediscountanvils

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Wh am I missing?

That's offensive. I should be first in that line

Well, if you recall some of the conspiracy theories from when you first joined the board, you supposedly are. Wink

pookie

NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Wh am I missing?

 

Sigh.  I might as well be invisible.

onlinediscountanvils

Also, great strategy for winning support, Dippers; tell people you're keeping a list of names of people who you suspect don't support you enough. That's sure to get them to vote for you. Who wouldn't want to elect a party that keeps an enemies list?

Pondering

pookie wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Wh am I missing?

 

Sigh.  I might as well be invisible.

I see you Pookie.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

Also, great strategy for winning support, Dippers; tell people you're keeping a list of names of people who you suspect don't support you enough. That's sure to get them to vote for you. Who wouldn't want to elect a party that keeps an enemies list?

C'mon, man. As you well know, N.R. doesn't speak for anyone but him/her self. To pretend that his/her posts reflect anything about any other "Dippers" is disingenuous at best.

onlinediscountanvils

Michael Moriarity wrote:

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

Also, great strategy for winning support, Dippers; tell people you're keeping a list of names of people who you suspect don't support you enough. That's sure to get them to vote for you. Who wouldn't want to elect a party that keeps an enemies list?

C'mon, man. As you well know, N.R. doesn't speak for anyone but him/her self. To pretend that his/her posts reflect anything about any other "Dippers" is disingenuous at best.

I don't know about that. The people who tend to challenge him on some of the ridiculous stuff he posts seem to be the same ones he's decided are Liberals. If there are dippers who are embarrassed by his posts, I rarely see them speaking up about it.

Rokossovsky

Those are in-jokes, really. That is the way I read those. Counter-trolling, trolls.

Adam T

Though I am a federal Liberal, as a B.C resident I would vote for the following NDP M.Ps candidates

1.Bill Sundhu, ,Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo

2.Nathan Cullen, Skeena-Bulkley Valley

3.Richard Cannings, South Okanagan-West Kootenay

4.Jasbir Sandhu, Surrey Centre

5.Carol Baird Allen or Michael Charrois, Burnaby North-Seymour

6.Kennedy Stewart, Burnaby South

7.Peter Julian, New Westminster-Burnaby

8.Fin Donnelly, Port Moody-Coquitlam

9.Don Davies, Vancouver-Kingsway

10.Gord Johns, Courtney-Alberni

11.Hilary Abbott, Georgia Collins, Alistair MacGregor, Ian Morrison, Ellen Oxman or Nick Wade, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford

12.Randall Garrison, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke

13.Sheila Malcomson, Nanaimo-Ladysmith

14.Rachel Blaney, North Island-Powell River

15.Murray Rankin, Victoria

All of the above are either excellent candidates/M.Ps and/or are the best chance to beat the Conservatives. 

I'd also vote for Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands.

 

PrairieDemocrat15

clambake wrote:
*If* that were there to happen, i'd say they stay the course with Mulcair (especially in a minority situation) while highlighting Trudeau's austerity and broken promises to the public.

If they finish in third in 2015 and 2019 with 40 seats, then they should think about Nathan Cullen or Megan Leslie as leader. But that's the worst case scenario. And i'd probably be done with politics in either scenario.

Yeah, just give up. Or maybe the NDP could just join the governing party?

Adam T

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

 

Yeah, just give up. Or maybe the NDP could just join the governing party?

That would be unprecedented, I don't believe that's ever happened in Canada and maybe not even the entire world.

Rokossovsky

Adam T wrote:

I don't really have much to add, but this seems to be the far more likely outcome.

What is the purpose of this thread other than trolling?

I guess its a response to the other thread about the "if the Liberals come in third". It's a reasonable question: will the Liberals use their portion of the balance of power to put the NDP into governance or let the Conservatives rule?

Such an outcome would be a defining point in the history of the Liberal party, since they would have to make a choice to back a "progressive" government, or a "conservative" government.

Seems like a pertinent discussion point, and one that isn't covered a lot.

The operative word in the other thread was "if", not "when". Seems like you are just being a jerk, unless I missed something.

It is completely obvious that the NDP would back the Liberals in government, and Mulcair has even indicated that potential in public statements. The NDP is certainly not going to back the Harpercons. We know this.

What we don't know is what the Liberals would do if the tables were turned.

My guess is that they would back Harper, at least tacitly.

PrairieDemocrat15

Adam T wrote:

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

 

Yeah, just give up. Or maybe the NDP could just join the governing party?

That would be unprecedented, I don't believe that's ever happened in Canada and maybe not even the entire world.

You don't get much news from Alberta, I guess.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Wh am I missing?

 

NorthReport, I should have known that a great Skywalker like yourself would be able to uncover the identities of the local membership of the Liberal Stampede who have joined the dark side. I'll come clean, we on the dark side have pledged our allegiance to Darth Trudeau who will undoubtedly become Canada's Emperor in just 10 short months. NorthReport, you too can join the dark side! Just look at the opinion polls showing the increasing Liberal strength and you can feel the glorious power of the dark side! Yoda Harper and Obi-Wan-Mulcair will tell you to use "The Force" to defeat the dark side but at over 30% in the polls, the dark side has become too powerful! The Force is with us, the Liberal Stampede! Mu, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha. Nothing can destroy the Liberal Death Star now. Not even a well placed missile aimed at a tiny area at the centre of the death star during the climactic 2015 Election debate by Yoda Harper or Obi-Wan-Mulcair! Mu, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

P.S. You are missing a name or two from your list. Luckily, we will never reveal Dark Lord Judy Rebick's identity to you or anyone opposed to the Empire. Mu, ha, ha, ha.

Unionist

NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Wh am I missing?

 

You don't know where your "at" is at.

Other than th"at" - is that a serious question? Would you like us to start a list?

KenS

Wh about me?

Wh am I not on the list?

 

[Sorry to distract from the Point unionist is making. But I can't ignore my hurt over being left out.]

Unionist

Why didn't we keep this prophetic thread alive?

I'm asking the rest of my comrades on the Liberal stampede hit list.

 

KenS

I'm still sulking about not being named on the list.

 

swallow swallow's picture

I miss onlinediscountanvils.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

Who am I missing?

About 7 million people who voted Liberal?

KenS

Just tools. The stampeedees.  The stamped-ed.

gadar

JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Who else is part of the Liberal stampede. Let's remeber these names after the election

Debater

Adam T

Josh

onlinediscountville

Unionist

Summer

Pondering

JKR

 

 

Who am I missing?

 

About 7 million people who voted Liberal?

I think people misunderstood NR's point. He never meant the Oct 19, 2015 election. He meant the election when "Mulcair is going to be the next Prime Minister of Canada". And that could be the next election or the one after that, or maybe the one after......, or whenever that happens. And after that election we shall all remember you all Liberal Stampeders.

Unionist

swallow wrote:

I miss onlinediscountanvils.

Me too. It's been a while. Hope he's ok. I'll try a PM.

terrytowel

N/A