What will the third-place Liberals do?

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Malcolm wrote:

I doubt the Liberals would risk the possibility of defeating Harper but leaving the NDP unsupported.  They cannot afford (financially or politically) to have an election within a matter of months - which is entirely possible in the scenario described.

Malcolm wrote:
On some further thinking - I believe that ALL the parties (except us) will desperately need a period of stability with no election because all three (Lib. Con, Bloc) will be lecting new leaders in the next 12 - 20 months.

Therefore, if (as theorized above), the Harperites were defeated but neither the Libs nor the Bloc wanted to establish a formal relationship, it is possible that an NDP ministry governing from second place in the House might be able to find a year or so worth of confidence.

Exactly. And pretty straightforward to put into play.

The NDP is going to vote against the Throne Speech. If the Liberals choose to do so, and dont want to be saddled with the junior governing role, thats it. What is the NDP going to do?...Say, "We dont it, thank you."  ??

The Liberals will desperately not want an election. But if they have the controlling block of seats- then the timing is up to them.

If the Bloc has enough seats with the Conservatives, then the whole question is moot... this scenario could not even get off the ground. Conversely, if the NDP and Libs have a majority together, and the Libs make it clear they will not support the government... it could make sense that even the "make my day" Harper would simply resign rather than try to force a Throne Speech vote. There would be optics and stratgeic advantages to the NDP being forced to immediately step into the breech. [And the Conservatives and Liberals would have a shared interest in making life miserable for the NDP government, while knowing the plug is not going to be pulled.]


Malcolm wrote:

... it is possible that an NDP ministry governing from second place in the House might be able to find a year or so worth of confidence.

I think I suggested earlier that if the Libs let Harper continue governing, the leadership race vote would be scehduled for after the 2012 Spring Budget confidence vote. Same thing for this scenario.

Even if life in the next year was lovely for the LPC, they need time and money. If the opportunity has already come that they would like another election- it can wait till after the Budget vote. It very unlikey they will be so fortunate anyway, and the vote on the new Leader after the 2012 Budget vote insulates him/her from a forced tough choice.

Then the Liberals choose the best time in the following year for pulling the plug- or not, if they deem it better to bide their time.... which would be conceivable even in the optimistic scenario of having recovered enough strength that they could face an election.

David Young

It's possible we could see a real schism in the Liberal Party should the results hold on May 2nd.

One-third of the party would want to support the NDP to get rid of the Conservatives, one-third would want to continue supporting the Conservatives and prevent the NDP from taking power, and one-third would want to stay the course, find a new leader, and rebuild.

The first sign would be any Liberal MP doing an 'Emerson' and jumping to the Conservatives (I am totally opposed to the NDP taking in any Liberal floor-crossers who aren't willing to resign and face their constituents in a by-election!)

Stay tuned!



I think this is a really good article by Delacourt even though she just does not get it, and that you start wondering mid-article which point she is making.

What went wrong for the Liberals

Message to Susan:

When your message is vacuous for years- even for Liberals- and your shift of positioning goes from being merely cynical to utterly aimless and hard to follow even for people who are not trying to diss you.... that just might catch up with you.

Even the great and wonderful Oz.


So yah, the bottom totally falling out after the LPC finally seemed to be getting their act together on all the campaigning, fundraising, and other fundamentals.... its just all too late.


Closed for length.


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