What'll take to move the NDP from its current 20% in the polls to 25% in the next election, Part 4

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NorthReport
What'll take to move the NDP from its current 20% in the polls to 25% in the next election, Part 4

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NorthReport
leftypopulist

I'm so glad RedRover came out of the closet to announce a preference for a more regressive party stance, mirroring the Libs and Cons on such issues prostitution, cannabis, Israeli policy and unions. Now we know exactly what the NDP should do - be more outspoken FROM THE LEFT on the issues RedRover would prefer they shift right on. Let's just do the opposite of what RedRover suggests.

1) If even the center-right Obama administration can criticize Israeli land grabs, the NDP should do so in a much more bold manner.

2) We've seen the USA accomodate and tolerate the Cannabis legalization movement, so the NDP should do so even stronger.

3) Prostitution ? Go Dutch.

4) Union support ? Strengthen those federal NDP party ties with unions and don't look back !

5) Elevate more women to the upper NDP ranks.

6) Elevate more minorities to the upper NDP ranks.

7) Get into those universities and colleges and embrace the next wave of YOUNG voters, and do the OPPOSITE of what RedRover does - ELEVATE and APPRECIATE young voters. Value them as a prime commodity.

St. Paul's Prog...

I'm not that supportive of the idea of special "labour delegates" but I really don't think this is the main issue that is stopping the NDP from a major breakthrough.  The Liberals have long been able to campaign like NDPers.  Ignatieff however can't really campaign at all - and his inclinations are centre-right.  The NDP ought to stress it is the party of actual liberalism in this country.

RedRover

Nice sucker punch Lefty.

Other than the unsubstantiated shots at me, thanks for at least bringing some ideas to the table.

NorthReport

Now that a second pollster has confirmed the NDP on the move at 20%, it seems that Canadians are waking up to the fact of a third choice between the Tweededee Conservatives and the Tweedum Liberals. Now that things are going so well for Layton what does he need to focus on to drive the NDP's support up to that 25% mark. 

NorthReport

The NDP are now within 7% of the Liberals.

I think it's time to kick some Liberal ass and drive the Liberals down to third place in the polls, mind you they seem to be doing a good job of it themselves. Laughing

Sean in Ottawa

I would not call this second pollster confirming since the NDP did not stay up there for the first pollster.

Still it is a good poll especially in the regionals which indicate where that support is coming from.

It is worth pointing out however that this is a big poll over 2 weeks so that is also encouraging.

These numbers are very different than the last time the NDP hit 20% in the polls.

Then, they did it with high numbers in Atlantic and Quebec regions-- not particularly efficient for seats. This time they have enough to hold what they have in Atlantic and Quebec -- perhaps gain a couple and then good numbers in Ontario. the real story is Sask and Manitoba and BC. The change there would deliver quite a few seats and puts the NDP into very efficient numbers for seats.

It is also a clear indication that this is being driven by ethics which explains why people don't go to the Liberals.

These are good numbers to start a campaign from. If these numebrs were to hold at the start of a campaign first palce at the finish would not be out of reach- provided the campaign went very well. In context another 4% from the Cons and 3% from the Liberals would be 1st place. This is not an impossible goal.

NorthReport

Which pollster was that Sean that dropped its 20% support for the NDP - do you have a link for that?

Sean in Ottawa

I am trying to find it-- I had heard vision critical had another poll since the March 29th at 20%--

In any case we do need to see a couple back to back from a couple different pollsters to call this a trend but it certianly is welcome.

The fact that Layton's personal numbers have edged past Harpers in some polls is a good sign as well.

The key to me is where the first place party is not the Liberals. The NDP being within 10 of the Cons is a very important number. I hope to see this tightening confirmed in the next couple polls.

NorthReport

So actually we have had 2 separate pollsters, in their most recent polling, showing the NDP at 20%.    

Augustus

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I am trying to find it-- I had heard vision critical had another poll since the March 29th at 20%--

In any case we do need to see a couple back to back from a couple different pollsters to call this a trend but it certianly is welcome.

The fact that Layton's personal numbers have edged past Harpers in some polls is a good sign as well.

The key to me is where the first place party is not the Liberals. The NDP being within 10 of the Cons is a very important number. I hope to see this tightening confirmed in the next couple polls.

That is unlikely to be the case.  I don't expect to see those numbers last.

ottawaobserver

Augustus, based on what?  If you're going to participate, you need to put your money where your mouth is, or no-one will take you seriously.

Sean in Ottawa

I also don't see those numbers lasting.

I think over the next few weeks with the Guergis/Jaffer controversy still at the Cons; the issue of contempt of parliament; the detainee issue and the HST that these numbers won't last.

I suspect the NDP will go up further, the Cons will dip further and the Liberals will become more frustrated.

It is also possible that the Liberals could go up as well-- It is possible that all three of the biggest parties will end up within the margin or error of each other. Bu Augustus I agree, these numbers won't last.

Sean in Ottawa

We might even see annoying little threads from North Report about how the NDP can go from "the current" 25% to 30%...

A good result for the third party in the UK might not do the NDP any harm either... People might want to look at the NDP to see if it can give the alternative people lack from the top two.

Augustus

ottawaobserver wrote:

Augustus, based on what?  If you're going to participate, you need to put your money where your mouth is, or no-one will take you seriously.

Based on the fact that over the past half-century the NDP has never been able to get over 20% of the vote in a federal election.

Btw, I don't always expect to be taken seriously.  Smile  I don't always take other people seriously.  Wink

ottawaobserver

Augustus wrote:

ottawaobserver wrote:

Augustus, based on what?  If you're going to participate, you need to put your money where your mouth is, or no-one will take you seriously.

Based on the fact that over the past half-century the NDP has never been able to get over 20% of the vote in a federal election.

Btw, I don't always expect to be taken seriously.  Smile  I don't always take other people seriously.  Wink

OK, so no-one can come up with any other reason than "it's never happened before".  Not to get all pollyanna-ish, but we won a Quebec seat in a general election, and formed a majority government in Nova Scotia, neither of which had ever happened before.

You'll have to do better than that.

ottawaobserver

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

We might even see annoying little threads from North Report about how the NDP can go from "the current" 25% to 30%...

Hey, come on.  NR starts a lot of interesting threads that get us all talking, Sean.  I for one appreciate that.

NorthReport

Here's another issue that is going to damage Harper, and keep his numbers down. Abortion.

 

Prentice drops another Jaffer bombshell;
Tories reignite abortion debate

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/prentice-dr...

Stockholm

BTW: If the UK election goes the way it seems to be going - the NDP can exploit the results in three ways:

1. Third party that always gets 18/19% of the vote surges to as much as 30%

2. Very strong possibility of some sort of accord/coalition involving LibDems and Labour to keep the Tories out - how can "coalition" be such a bad thing if they are doing it in the "mother of all parliaments"?

3. Lib Dems will almost certainly demand and get some type of electoral reform as part of the deal - again good role model for Canada.

Augustus

It's up to Canadians to decide whether or not they want a Liberal-NDP coalition.

Polls appear to show that many Canadians are against the idea because it is viewed as overturning the results of an election.  The party that wins the most seats in Canada is considered the party that has the greatest right to govern.

You can expect Stephen Harper to campaign against the coalition in the next election.

Sean in Ottawa

ottawaobserver wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

We might even see annoying little threads from North Report about how the NDP can go from "the current" 25% to 30%...

Hey, come on.  NR starts a lot of interesting threads that get us all talking, Sean.  I for one appreciate that.

Hey now-- that was a joke since the content of my post clearly supports NR's point of view-- even the idea of the numbers not staying the same -- but actually increasing I think NR would have no trouble with!

Sean in Ottawa

Stockholm wrote:

BTW: If the UK election goes the way it seems to be going - the NDP can exploit the results in three ways:

1. Third party that always gets 18/19% of the vote surges to as much as 30%

2. Very strong possibility of some sort of accord/coalition involving LibDems and Labour to keep the Tories out - how can "coalition" be such a bad thing if they are doing it in the "mother of all parliaments"?

3. Lib Dems will almost certainly demand and get some type of electoral reform as part of the deal - again good role model for Canada.

Um, yes, yes and well damn straight yes.

This election in the UK may be more relevant to Canada than any other in the last few decades.

Stockholm

Augustus wrote:

It's up to Canadians to decide whether or not they want a Liberal-NDP coalition.

Polls appear to show that many Canadians are against the idea because it is viewed as overturning the results of an election.  The party that wins the most seats in Canada is considered the party that has the greatest right to govern.

You can expect Stephen Harper to campaign against the coalition in the next election.

GOOD!! I really hope that Harper spends the entire election campaign attacking the idea of a coalition government - that way when the Liberals, NDP and BQ get far more seats than the Tories get - it will give the coalition wayyyy more legitimacy!

Can you produce ANY recent poll that actually says that Canadians have any objection to parties in a minority parliament forming accords or coalitions with each other?? NO, you can't because they don't exist!

Augustus

In the polling done on this subject in late 2008 and early 2009, most Canadians outside of Quebec were against the idea of a coalition.

There still remains a lot of opposition to it today.  I'm not sure how you can claim with such confidence that as of present time Canadians do not have any objection to coalitions.  That remains to be seen in future polls.

NorthReport

I don't know any party that is running on a coalition platform, do you?

If Harper's numbers keep dropping the way they have been, the Conservatives may well be looking for a coalition partner themselves?

Who do you think that would be?

 

 

British election reveals the new normal

 

 

It's all very Canadian, really.

The Conservatives -- the "nasty party" -- remain a distinctly minority preference, there and here. Two-thirds of the electorate want a different government, there and here. But in the absence of some sort of further evolution in the political system, the Conservative minority seem set to rule -- there and here.

Liberal Democratic leader Clegg was musing this weekend that he might actively help make that happen by supporting the Tories should they come first in the popular vote.

This was a canny piece of maneuvering, designed to inoculate his party against the Tory claim "Vote Clegg, get Brown." It was a reminder that Mr. Clegg comes from the right wing of his party. And it underlined (as do those numbers up above) how poorly a first-past-the-post electoral system reflects the will and votes of citizens in a multi-party democracy. Labour seems set to come in third in the popular vote, but in some scenarios could still have the most seats.

There is, however, no suggestion in Britain that the debate over who-will-work-with-whom is somehow unconstitutional or undemocratic. The British -- even their conservative newspapers and pundits -- understand that electing a minority Parliament obliges the political parties within it to work together in some combination.

Whatever happens, the British Parliament will be taking its place at the centre of British politics after the next election. Setting a fine precedent for the former colonies.

 

 

Stockholm

All we know is that in December 2008, most Canadians outside Quebec didn't like the idea of Stephane Dion becoming a lame duck PM less than two months after leading his party to a terrible results and after he had announced his plan to resign.

There has never been any polling that shows that Canadians have any problem at all with "the idea of a coalition". In fact I seem to recall one poll from about a year ago that showed that given a choice between a stable coalition guaranteed to last several years and with an agreed upon program or an unstable single party minority government where every day is a game of Russian roulette - people prefer a coalition!

Anyways, the proof will be in the pudding. Harper can declare that the next election is a referendum on whether or not to have a coalition. If the Conservative party gets over 50% of the vote and a clear majority of seats - he wins. Anythingt less then he has to admit that most canadians rejected his argument and he should do the honourable thing and resign.

ottawaobserver

NorthReport wrote:

If Harper's numbers keep dropping the way they have been, the Conservatives may well be looking for a coalition partner themselves?

Who do you think that would be?

I think it would be the blue Liberals, to be honest with you, although that depends on how many of them there are left (to mix up my metaphors).

It will definitely be one factor to consider, the extent to which remaining Liberals are prepared to negotiate any arrangement with the NDP other than supine deference.  The two parties' relative bargaining strengths will undoubtedly be decided based on how many seats each would win in the next election, and where they are located.  If the NDP has a stronger position than the blue Liberals are comfortable with, I could see some of them throwing in their lot with the Conservatives.

From what we know of their basic modus operandi, they would instantly begin to plot to oust Harper, and advance their own candidate for leader.

RedRover

NorthReport wrote:

Which pollster was that Sean that dropped its 20% support for the NDP - do you have a link for that?

Well only two have put the party over 20% in the last year - one time each.

So...maybe this thread should be more realistically titled...'What can the NDP do to maintain 20% in the polls for two weeks running'

I say that acknowledging that there is still a lot of upside if the cards are played right on scandal, HST, detainees, etc.

BTW - The Lib Dems are takng support from the Conservatives as much or more than from Labour, so finding good wedges like the ones above and in earlier posts is probably a good place to start 'securing' 20% on a regular basis.

adma

Augustus wrote:

It's up to Canadians to decide whether or not they want a Liberal-NDP coalition.

Polls appear to show that many Canadians are against the idea because it is viewed as overturning the results of an election.  The party that wins the most seats in Canada is considered the party that has the greatest right to govern.

You can expect Stephen Harper to campaign against the coalition in the next election.

But also remember Ontario in 1995 (though that was a case where the provincial Liberals got more votes yet fewer seats).

And when it comes to "acceptability of an idea", it may depend on how many fewer seats the Liberals might have--remember that there was a yawning seat-total gap btw/Dion and Harper, but if it isn't so yawning btw/Iggy + Harper and there's enough Layton caucus to make a coalition entity, then it's more likely that Canadians might be okay with giving it a try.

Under such a circumstance, Harper "campaigning against a coalition" could well backfire--that is, unless a similar coalition in Britain backfires in the interrim...

NorthReport

It's obvious now that the angry ole men in the Conservative caucus would remove abortion rights for women if they ever got a majority government. Harper needs to be removed from office soon.

JKR

Augustus wrote:

You can expect Stephen Harper to campaign against the coalition in the next election.

 

Layton can defend against this in much the same way Clegg has in the UK. Layton could just announce that he's willing to work with anyone, even "the man on the moon" as long as they don't come in third place in the vote.

Nick Clegg will work with 'man from moon'

So Layton could say that he would work with either Harper or Ignatieff as long as they don't come in third place. That would diffuse Harper's campaign against coalitions.

Stockholm

But surely if Ignatieff and the Liberals came in third, Layton would be more than happy to work with the Liberals as they offered their support for an NDP minority government!

melovesproles

I disagree with Clegg that third matters that much.  Parliament should respect the will of the majority of it's elected representatives.  That's far more important than partisan seat counts.  Harper has shown he can't work with others and he's prorogued and bullied his way through several short term minority governments.  It's time to give someone else a chance.  I can't stand Iggy and if he doesn't play serious ball with the NDP than it would be better to endure another Harper minority just to get rid of such an incompetent Liberal leader.  The Conservative should run an election on how they can't get along with the majority of Canada's elected MPs, I'm sure that will win them a lot of new support...that said they just might be stupid enough to do it if their jaw droppingly idiotic abortion antics this week are any indication.

NorthReport

I'm not sure shouting back is the answer.

 

Why aren't Canada's lefties ready to rumble?

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/arts/television/john-doyle/why-arent...

Augustus

ottawaobserver wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

If Harper's numbers keep dropping the way they have been, the Conservatives may well be looking for a coalition partner themselves?

Who do you think that would be?

I think it would be the blue Liberals, to be honest with you, although that depends on how many of them there are left (to mix up my metaphors).

It will definitely be one factor to consider, the extent to which remaining Liberals are prepared to negotiate any arrangement with the NDP other than supine deference.  The two parties' relative bargaining strengths will undoubtedly be decided based on how many seats each would win in the next election, and where they are located.  If the NDP has a stronger position than the blue Liberals are comfortable with, I could see some of them throwing in their lot with the Conservatives.

From what we know of their basic modus operandi, they would instantly begin to plot to oust Harper, and advance their own candidate for leader.

I doubt the Liberals would want to form a coalition with the Conservatives.  I think they would only do it with the NDP.  Working with the Conservatives would not be considered acceptable with their left-wing base in Toronto or in Quebec where they want to make more gains.

In any event, the Conservatives are against a coalition anyway.

Sean in Ottawa

The last comment is right on. Almost a third of Canadians want a Conservative government. They are the bedrock of opposition to a coalition. The rest who want to remove the Conservative government are not so opposed and many are for the idea.

As well, many did not want a government toppled within weeks of gaining power. That no longer applies.

ottawaobserver

Sorry, perhaps I didn't make my point clearly.  I was speculating that if the Liberals and NDP did come to an arrangement, it might peel enough blue Liberals away from that party to join the Conservatives ... .either formally or in another kind of coalition.

David Young

ottawaobserver wrote:

Sorry, perhaps I didn't make my point clearly.  I was speculating that if the Liberals and NDP did come to an arrangement, it might peel enough blue Liberals away from that party to join the Conservatives ... .either formally or in another kind of coalition.

I've always wondered if the more right-wing Liberals (Alan Tonks, etc.) would rather jump to the Conservatives rather than see a Liberal minority depending on NDP support for power.

The apparent boost in NDP support could also be from the list of candidates that Jack Layton has assembled so far.

Should the NDP continue to show a gain in support, and the Liberals show no growth, will there come a point where some Liberals M.P.'s may decide it's time to abandon ship?

 

Sean in Ottawa

I doubt the Candidate list is known publicly enough to affect polling.

I think this is in large part a reaction to the scandals and things the NDP has said before that is resonating.

There are a lot of people that may be open to a message from the NDP but I assume that will come in an election and this bump in the polls is a geture of faith from an electorate that is listening-- If I'm right then on the one hand the NDP has done little recently to get this support and is benfitting from long term investment and this is just the start of it if things are managed well. The real moves would be in a campaign.

Ottawa Observer is suggesting that the Liberals could be open to erosion from left and right if they fall much further and is clear they need to jump one way or another in a coalition situation. It is a reasonable idea and we may see some of that, On the other hand since Ignatief is right wing enough the greater erosion could be to the NDP. If the Liberals were to fall below the NDP the damn could break on the left side and those on the right may have so little left that they just walk to the conservatives.

This is of course the NDP's wish- no Liberals and a more polarized electorate with more honest and clear choices. This is a long shot but as I have said elsewhere, this is the kind of political change that allows almost no warning when it happens. This could happen through a single campaign.

NorthReport

This scandal appears to be escalating. Maybe it is time to start thinking election especially with the Speaker's ruling coming possibly today on who has supremacy, the pm or Parliament.

 

New revelations in Jaffer controversy

 

CTV News reports on allegations Jaffer had made overtures to Industry Minister Tony Clement's office, and an associate of Jaffer's made a business pitch to Science Minister Gary Goodyear's office.

 

 

http://www.570news.com/news/local/article/48875--new-revelations-in-jaff...

 

Stockholm

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Almost a third of Canadians want a Conservative government. They are the bedrock of opposition to a coalition.

I don't think that people who vote Conservative have any real issue with the idea of coalition government - they just have an issue with anything that means the Tory party being out of power. If the Conservatives found some way to form a coalition of their own that meant that Harper remained PM - Tories would suddenly be the world's biggest fans of coalition government. Imagine if the Canadian Alliance and the PCs had not merged in 2003 and that in the 2004 election, the Liberals were the biggest party but the CA and the PCs combined had mofre seats than the Liberals - how much does anyone want to bet that in that scenario, the CA and PCs would form a coaltion and all the pundits on the right would be lecturing us about how coalition government is perfectly acceptable etc...etc...look at Australia - either you have a Labor Party gov't or you have a rightwing COALITION government of the Liberals and the National Party.

There is no grand principle behind the Tory opposition to coalition government - its just a reflection of the fact that at this particular point in time - coalition means - the Liberals and NDP coalescing to dump the Tories - so of course Tories don't like it. But down the road - Tories would be the biggest fans in the world of coalition gov't if it meant them being in power.

NorthReport

I know it is scuzzy tactics,  but I kinda sympathise with the Cons here. Canadians are just sick of the political bias shown by the CBC and their political news department which needs to be shut down or seriously revamped instead of acting as a mouthpiece for the Ignatieff Liberals.

 

Tory culture warriors target CBC 'vested interests'

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tory-cultur...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The CBC in BC seems to give the government MP's in BC an easy ride and they are not really all that nice to Ignatieff.  Of course they are just plain nasty to the NDP but that has always been the way.  I think the Cons complaining about bias in the news media is laughable. 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

I know it is scuzzy tactics,  but I kinda sympathise with the Cons here. Canadians are just sick of the political bias shown by the CBC and their political news department which needs to be shut down or seriously revamped instead of acting as a mouthpiece for the Ignatieff Liberals.

 

Tory culture warriors target CBC 'vested interests'

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tory-cultur...

If the Conservatives have such a problem with Ekos, why have they given them 99 polling contracts since they came to power?

http://www.scribd.com/doc/30565935/99-Canadian-Awards-EKOS

 

NorthReport

Thanks Bekayne.

 

Yes!!!

 

Afghan records denial breaches privilege: Speaker
Milliken gives government 2 weeks to find compromise over document release

 

 

The federal government breached parliamentary privilege with its refusal to produce uncensored documents related to the treatment of Afghan detainees and must provide the material to MPs within two weeks, Speaker Peter Milliken has ruled.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/04/27/afghan-detainee-documents-sp...

NorthReport

Who else is sick of this windbag - let's call their right wing bluff and have an election!

 

 

Odds of an election have increased

 

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/spector-vision/odds-of-an-e...

 

NorthReport

Humm.....what's going on here?

 

Un membre de l'association libérale porte plainte... contre Marc Garneau

 

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...

Sean in Ottawa

Stockholm wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Almost a third of Canadians want a Conservative government. They are the bedrock of opposition to a coalition.

I don't think that people who vote Conservative have any real issue with the idea of coalition government - they just have an issue with anything that means the Tory party being out of power. If the Conservatives found some way to form a coalition of their own that meant that Harper remained PM - Tories would suddenly be the world's biggest fans of coalition government. Imagine if the Canadian Alliance and the PCs had not merged in 2003 and that in the 2004 election, the Liberals were the biggest party but the CA and the PCs combined had mofre seats than the Liberals - how much does anyone want to bet that in that scenario, the CA and PCs would form a coaltion and all the pundits on the right would be lecturing us about how coalition government is perfectly acceptable etc...etc...look at Australia - either you have a Labor Party gov't or you have a rightwing COALITION government of the Liberals and the National Party.

There is no grand principle behind the Tory opposition to coalition government - its just a reflection of the fact that at this particular point in time - coalition means - the Liberals and NDP coalescing to dump the Tories - so of course Tories don't like it. But down the road - Tories would be the biggest fans in the world of coalition gov't if it meant them being in power.

Indeed, that was my point in saying that the split on this coalition is along party lines about power -- not about coalitions in general. when we say coalition -- we mean one that removes Harper as PM but it is possible that he may want to float a coalition to keep himself in power but he has mismanaged relations with the other parties such that this would be a unproductive initiative.

Sean in Ottawa

Augustus wrote:

It's up to Canadians to decide whether or not they want a Liberal-NDP coalition.

Polls appear to show that many Canadians are against the idea because it is viewed as overturning the results of an election.  The party that wins the most seats in Canada is considered the party that has the greatest right to govern.

You can expect Stephen Harper to campaign against the coalition in the next election.

On your first point -- absolutely not. You get to vote for the party you choose not for the arrangement they make or even for the potential arrangement. This keeps coming up where pundits say voters voted for a minority government. No, in many cases they did not -- they voted for majorities but just could not agree as to the party.

Many polls have showed that an NDP-Liberal coalition is quite popular. You are fiddling with facts to suggest that the poll results which were in fact not overwhelming from December 2008 apply to today.

The party that wins the most seats is not considered the party with the greatest right to govern. That was a fiction Harper tried to peddle with at best temporary success but over time people have come to realize that was not true-- it took time for people to become educated. Most of those who actually vote know better. The party that can command the support of the majority of seats in parliament has the right to govern. We have been down this road before -- Ask David Peterson and Bob Rae since they are both Liberals now I am sure they can explain it.

 

NorthReport

This does not look good for Harper.

 

Jaffer 'lied his ass off': NDP

 

 

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/04/28/13751346-qmi.html

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