Who are u supporting for NDP Leader, how will u mark your ballot, and why? #4

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NorthReport
Who are u supporting for NDP Leader, how will u mark your ballot, and why? #4

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DSloth

[url=http://www.mediafire.com/?xzxya1xcjcbgcgc]Babble Declared Preferences[/url]: Final Ballot Mulcair 25, Saganash 22

1st Ballot: Saganash 16, Mulcair 15, Nash 7, Cullen 7, Topp 4, Ashton 2, Dewar 1, Singh 1.

2nd Ballot: Saganash 16, Mulcair 16, Nash 7, Cullen 7, Topp 4, Ashton 2

3rd Ballot: Saganash 17, Mulcair 16, Nash 8, Cullen 7, Topp 4

4th Ballot: Saganash 18, Mulcair 16, Nash 9, Cullen 7

5th Ballot: Saganash 19, Mulcair 19, Nash 11

 

Mulcair had pulled ahead by the final ballot even before Saganash dropped out.  I'll be keeping Saganash's votes in at least for the moment, there's no reason to ignore the significant support he garnered here (and the preferential ballot means it won't change the final result unless he wins), but if Rabblers want to update their list without Saganash I'll change their individual rankings accordingly. 

flight from kamakura

wow, didn't realize how much support saganash had, that's pretty impressive.  also impressive that you took the time to compile those.

DSloth

If anyone's curious Mulcair dominates without Saganash on the ballot and clinches it in the 4th round: Mulcair 23, Nash 12, Cullen 7.

Unionist

I think it's time to remove Saganash's name, now that the figures have been compiled. Otherwise, why not write in some new names - like Libby Davies?

 

algomafalcon

DSloth wrote:

[url=http://www.mediafire.com/?xzxya1xcjcbgcgc]Babble Declared Preferences[/url]: Final Ballot Mulcair 25, Saganash 22

1st Ballot: Saganash 16, Mulcair 15, Nash 7, Cullen 7, Topp 4, Ashton 2, Dewar 1, Singh 1.

2nd Ballot: Saganash 16, Mulcair 16, Nash 7, Cullen 7, Topp 4, Ashton 2

3rd Ballot: Saganash 17, Mulcair 16, Nash 8, Cullen 7, Topp 4

4th Ballot: Saganash 18, Mulcair 16, Nash 9, Cullen 7

5th Ballot: Saganash 19, Mulcair 19, Nash 11

 

Mulcair had pulled ahead by the final ballot even before Saganash dropped out.  I'll be keeping Saganash's votes in at least for the moment, there's no reason to ignore the significant support he garnered here (and the preferential ballot means it won't change the final result unless he wins), but if Rabblers want to update their list without Saganash I'll change their individual rankings accordingly. 

 

Not opposed to your logic in looking at Saganash to evaluate his impact on the race, BUT, am I right in assuming that since he has withdrawn from the race, he won't be on the official ballot in March?

And Its too bad we don't have access to some web app ballot to simplify the tabulation of this "internal poll". That way it might be possible to see if there is any appreciable shifts in the final month of the campaign.

Caissa

I'm still undecided, although I think I have narrowed myself to 3 candidates.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

2nd choice (decided voters):  Paul Dewar 21.2%

 

That sounds like BS to me. I think this is a made-up poll. Dewar as NDP leader can kiss off any Quebec support.

oldgoat

Babble has some of the most intelligent and politically articulate people in the country. (you know who you are)  That's why reality is always so different than what would be reflected by the polls here.

 

My order of preference is kind of up in the air now.

 

1st and 2nd -  Topp or Nash, haven't made my mind up.

3rd etc. - Now we get into territory where I'm holding my nose a bit.  I dunno, maybe Cullen.  It's not like he'll really do that accord with the Libs stuff.  Maybe even Ashton.

Next - I'm assuming Singh will be a speed bump on the way to the second ballot, with Dewar not much after.

And then - Speaking of holding my nose, if I vote for Mulcair look for the guy at the convention with the really sore nose.  That would mean a Mulcair and Singh/Dewar final ballot, and how likely is that.

 

I recognize the reality that Mulcair may very well take this thing, and possibly even on a 1st ballot.  I do acknowledge his formidable skills, I just think he would be a divisive and polarizing figure in a leadership role, and I don't trust his campaign charm offensive.

 

As always, I am not utterly closed to the possibility of changing my mind.

 

 

 

NorthReport

Poll results just released at www.PaulDewar.ca

NDP membership poll shows 3 way race with Dewar leading on second ballot support

February 13th, 2012

New poll of 6,373 NDP members provides clear information on the state of the race

OTTAWA – Today the Paul Dewar Campaign is releasing the results of a large Interactive Voice Response (IVR) poll of 6,373 NDP members from every region of Canada. The poll, conducted from February 8-9th asked respondents to select their first and second choice for leader of the NDP. Respondents were provided with a list of all the candidates to choose from.

Using the most up to date NDP membership list (February 2nd, 2012) 56,522 NDP members were called and a total of 6,373 NDP members responded, with participation from every province and territory. The poll has a margin of error of 1.19% 19 times out of 20.

The results of the poll have been weighted to accurately reflect the current (February 2nd) NDP membership numbers in every province and territory.

Results

First choice (decided voters):

Thomas Mulcair 25.5%
Peggy Nash 16.8%
Paul Dewar 15.1%
Nathan Cullen 12.8%
Brian Topp 12.7%
Nikki Ashton 9.5%
Martin Singh 4.1%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%

2nd choice (decided voters):

Paul Dewar 21.2%
Peggy Nash 19.4%
Thomas Mulcair 16.7%
Nathan Cullen 14.4%
Brian Topp 12.4%
Nikki Ashton 10.7%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
Martin Singh 1.8%

 

DSloth

Boom Boom wrote:
2nd choice (decided voters):

Paul Dewar 21.2%
That sounds like BS to me. I think this is a made-up poll. Dewar as NDP leader can kiss off any Quebec support.

 

Well it would be really helpful to know which candidate he is the second choice of, if it's just of the people outpolling him in the first number it won't amount to much.
That said if Dewar was going to fix the poll, he might as well have gone for something better than distant third. The release of the poll was less about his chances and more about changing the story from his performance in Quebec City.

NorthReport

The last poll I saw showed the following:

Mulcair - 35%

Nash- 18%

Topp - 12%

And I'm not getting the impression much has changed since then except for Ashton perhaps improving her position

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Dewar (and maybe a couple of others), knowing their French is substandard, will drag the party back down to third place - because Quebec will never vote for someone so clearly incompetent in their language. If Dewar stays in the race, knowing this - then, in my opinion, he's an asshole.

DSloth

NorthReport wrote:

The last poll I saw showed the following:

Mulcair - 35%

Nash- 18%

Topp - 12%

That looks a lot like the numbers for the last "NDP voter poll,"  the Dewar poll is interesting because, to my knowledge, it's the only poll of the actual NDP membership.  That said any internal poll has to be viewed extremely skeptically and with the caveat that the actual membership totals will still be fluid until the 18th.

Also interested in how the language barrier was tackled. 

NorthReport

The Liberal Toronto Star would like nothing better than to see Dewar win the NDP Leadership race

 

 

 

NDP leadership: Thomas Mulcair ahead on first ballot, internal poll suggests

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1130523--ndp-leaders...

flight from kamakura

thanks for the link.  i think these numbers could well be solid, it's definitely how i'd see the race, though that level of dewar second vote (not second ballot, note) support does frighten me.  nothing here makes me think it's not mulcair/nash on the final ballot.

Stockholm

For all the talk about "Anyone but Mulcair"...I think that there is far more of a sentiment of "anyone but Dewar" among people who don't want to forever destroy the NDP in Quebec.

JeffWells

Stockholm wrote:

For all the talk about "Anyone but Mulcair"...I think that there is far more of a sentiment of "anyone but Dewar" among people who don't want to forever destroy the NDP in Quebec.

 

Fingers crossed there are enough such people.

Oy, I'm not going to enjoy the next six weeks.

Winston

Boom Boom wrote:

Dewar (and maybe a couple of others), knowing their French is substandard, will drag the party back down to third place - because Quebec will never vote for someone so clearly incompetent in their language. If Dewar stays in the race, knowing this - then, in my opinion, he's an asshole.

AGREED!

"Ce tu wla gwassidewar"

janfromthebruce

right on here! omg - kiss our seats good-bye!

 

JeffWells wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

For all the talk about "Anyone but Mulcair"...I think that there is far more of a sentiment of "anyone but Dewar" among people who don't want to forever destroy the NDP in Quebec.

 

Fingers crossed there are enough such people.

Oy, I'm not going to enjoy the next six weeks.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

janfromthebruce

my sweet "intelligent and politically articulate" head is swelling Kiss That said, and all joking aside oldgoat, I absolutely agree with you.

 

oldgoat wrote:

Babble has some of the most intelligent and politically articulate people in the country. (you know who you are)  That's why reality is always so different than what would be reflected by the polls here.

 

My order of preference is kind of up in the air now.

 

1st and 2nd -  Topp or Nash, haven't made my mind up.

3rd etc. - Now we get into territory where I'm holding my nose a bit.  I dunno, maybe Cullen.  It's not like he'll really do that accord with the Libs stuff.  Maybe even Ashton.

Next - I'm assuming Singh will be a speed bump on the way to the second ballot, with Dewar not much after.

And then - Speaking of holding my nose, if I vote for Mulcair look for the guy at the convention with the really sore nose.  That would mean a Mulcair and Singh/Dewar final ballot, and how likely is that.

 

I recognize the reality that Mulcair may very well take this thing, and possibly even on a 1st ballot.  I do acknowledge his formidable skills, I just think he would be a divisive and polarizing figure in a leadership role, and I don't trust his campaign charm offensive.

 

As always, I am not utterly closed to the possibility of changing my mind.

 

 

 

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

KenS

I think the Dewar poll is probably reasonably accurate.

I think that statistically speaking, and considering there are 6 weeks and lots of undecideds, there are 4 after Mulcair grouped together. Which is pretty much what I would expect.

If I was the Topp campaign, with what the likely long term strategy would be, I could hope to have been in a better place.... but not concerned about showing 5th in a poll, given the grouping.

You cannot win a race like this with a significant block of people opposed to you. Even if Babble is not very representative, it is representative enough to show evidence of that. And if the perceptions of Dewar's French do not improve, he's a long shot for making it to the last round, and its virtually impossible for him to win.

Up until now I would have said the same is true for Cullen, because of deep opposition to his joint nominations idea. But Jeff Wells made an interesting point about the 'hold your nose' level of making a choice.... which comes into play for him after his first two choices. I only have one choice right now of who I'd be happy enough with. It's an interesting point, and might bring Cullen into play for a lot of us as a final round choice we could live with. I'm mulling that one over.

 

JeffWells

KenS wrote:
But Jeff Wells made an interesting point about the 'hold your nose' level of making a choice.... which comes into play for him after his first two choices. I only have one choice right now of who I'd be happy enough with.

Don't think that was me. I don't believe I have one choice now I'm happy enough with...

Winston

janfromthebruce and oldgoat:

What makes you think Nathan Cullen's French is adequate? As much as I like the guy (what a great personality!) the only reason his and Singh's French were given a pass was that Dewar's was so horrendous!

Further to that, Niki far outperformed Peggy in my view yesterday.  She may have just clinched my number 2 spot.

After yesterday, I think the race is down to 4: Mulcair, Topp, Ashton and Nash - and that only with the caveat that Nash had better have her A-game out for the last French debate.

 

Stockholm

Winston wrote:

What makes you think Nathan Cullen's French is adequate? As much as I like the guy (what a great personality!) the only reason his and Singh's French were given a pass was that Dewar's was so horrendous!

Cullen is very comfortable in his own skin when he speaks French - and that can go a long way. His grammar and vocabular may not be perfect, but he is able to joke around and be kind of endearing. If Dewar's French was comparable to Cullen's it would make a big difference.

CanadaApple

I wouldn't say Dewar is an "asshole", he seems like a nice guy from what I've seen. could it be that he just really thinks he is the best person for the job, and is also a tad ignorant about his skill with french?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I don't think Dewar is up to the job.

KenS

It was that old goat who made the comment that got me thinking:

oldgoat wrote:

1st and 2nd - Topp or Nash, haven't made my mind up.

3rd etc. - Now we get into territory where I'm holding my nose a bit. I dunno, maybe Cullen. It's not like he'll really do that accord with the Libs stuff. Maybe even Ashton.

Currently, I only have a first choice, and after that its "I don know".

And maybe Cullen [distant] second for me. I was not only concerned about his clunker plan itself. It makes me question his political judgement. But I have the same questions about Mulcair and Nash, so why not Cullen as my #2 if I have to go there? He has advatnages to my mind over Mulcair, and I think his public personna is at least as engaging. I also think he'll win Quebeckers over with his approach, and does not have what I think are the big question marks around how Mulcair will fare under scrutiny in the ROC.

 

wage zombie

KenS wrote:

I think the Dewar poll is probably reasonably accurate.

Is there any chance the caller id on the survey would've said "Paul Dewar"?  I've gotten several calls from the Paul Dewar campaign over the lastfew weeks and I never answer.

Quote:

Up until now I would have said the same is true for Cullen, because of deep opposition to his joint nominations idea. But Jeff Wells made an interesting point about the 'hold your nose' level of making a choice.... which comes into play for him after his first two choices. I only have one choice right now of who I'd be happy enough with. It's an interesting point, and might bring Cullen into play for a lot of us as a final round choice we could live with. I'm mulling that one over.

I think Cullen may be the only candidate who can win enough late ballot support to compete with Mulcair.  I'd be leaning Mulcair in this scenario.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Robert Chisholm is shining at QP today. Smile

KenS

I think that its still wide open for any of the next 4 to break out and be on the last ballot- excepting Dewar if the wide assessment of his French stays that way.

And it may come down to who can put the most callers on the phones.

oldgoat

no-one's called me yet.  Frown

Howard

CanadaApple wrote:

I wouldn't say Dewar is an "asshole", he seems like a nice guy from what I've seen. could it be that he just really thinks he is the best person for the job, and is also a tad ignorant about his skill with french?

Dewar wants to be the leader of a party that won 59/75 seats in Québec last election and almost half of the popular vote. He wants to be the Prime Minister of a country that includes Québec and is about 30% francophone. He represents possibly the most bilingual city in Canada, one of the most bilingual ridings in Canada, constantly name drops about his famous politician family to remind everyone of his pedigree, and spent virtually his whole life growing up in the shadow of Parliament Hill. That being said, he hasn't bothered to learn the language of the 30% of Canadians or 80% of Québeckers (almost 60% of the NDPs seats) to a level befitting a Prime Minister. He likes to brag about how he knows Spanish (which is also a gross exaggeration), he's got his priorities all wrong and is not fit to be leader. If he had any respect, he would quit, but I think he is too busy looking at his reflection in a stream.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Howard wrote:

Dewar wants to be the leader of a party that won 59/75 seats in Québec last election and almost half of the popular vote. He wants to be the Prime Minister of a country that includes Québec and is about 30% francophone. He represents possibly the most bilingual city in Canada, one of the most bilingual ridings in Canada, constantly name drops about his famous politician family to remind everyone of his pedigree, and spent virtually his whole life growing up in the shadow of Parliament Hill. That being said, he hasn't bothered to learn the language of the 30% of Canadians or 80% of Québeckers (almost 60% of the NDPs seats) to a level befitting a Prime Minister. He likes to brag about how he knows Spanish (which is also a gross exaggeration), he's got his priorities all wrong and is not fit to be leader. If he had any respect, he would quit, but I think he is too busy looking at his reflection in a stream.

You said it far better than I.

wage zombie

Howard wrote:

Dewar wants to be the leader of a party that won 59/75 seats in Québec last election and almost half of the popular vote. He wants to be the Prime Minister of a country that includes Québec and is about 30% francophone. He represents possibly the most bilingual city in Canada, one of the most bilingual ridings in Canada, constantly name drops about his famous politician family to remind everyone of his pedigree, and spent virtually his whole life growing up in the shadow of Parliament Hill. That being said, he hasn't bothered to learn the language of the 30% of Canadians or 80% of Québeckers (almost 60% of the NDPs seats) to a level befitting a Prime Minister. He likes to brag about how he knows Spanish (which is also a gross exaggeration), he's got his priorities all wrong and is not fit to be leader. If he had any respect, he would quit, but I think he is too busy looking at his reflection in a stream.

Why you attack of me that way?  You no hear I has organizer genius?

flight from kamakura

he thinking to the making the point that.  leader musting to considering biggest image, and making decide base on best for party, not best for own inflate seeing of personal quality.

gunder
mark_alfred

From what I've heard of Nash's healthcare statement at the last debate, I've moved her down.  Ashton has moved up.  So, for me, it's Topp, Ashton, Mulcair, Nash.  I still feel Nash has very good credibility on both labour and the economy, but I'll have be reassured about the healthcare stuff before I can move her back up again.  Ashton's site seems good.  Her prioirties look good.  If she can flesh out her tax policy a bit more -- she does say she wishes to address the poverty gap, but doesn't say how she'll do that -- it would be helpful to me to be confident about maintaining my support for her.  Singh may get first nod for being strong on pharmacare, though this would be as a toss away vote.

 

later edit:  Okay, I read the link in gunder's post above, and that's reassured me.  So, to revise once again:

Singh, Topp, Nash, Ashton, Mulcair.

janfromthebruce

oh old goat, it pains me to see you so sad - send me your number privately and I'll phone you - I promise! Kiss

 

oldgoat wrote:

no-one's called me yet.  Frown

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Lord Palmerston

I'm liking Niki Ashton but I think I will be supporting Peggy Nash.  In spite of her flub at the QC debate I think she is the left candidate and offers a more traditional redistributionist social democratic approach combined with support for social movements.  I hope she stays on until the last ballot.  If it's Dewar and Mulcair at the end I don't think I would be able to support either.  

Stockholm

The ideal scenario for Mulcair is to be up against Dewar on the final count. If its him vs. Nash its much riskier for him because she seems inoffensive and all things being equal - a lot of NDP members will like the idea of a woman as leader.

Lord Palmerston

I agree with that - I think a lot of NDPers of all stripes will pick Mulcair over Dewar.  Even if they are reluctant about some things about Mulcair (whether ideological or personal), they'll be thinking strategically and realize that Dewar would be a disaster.  

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I think Mulcair is close to unbeatable if he is on the final ballot, but that's just a guess.

Lord Palmerston

There's no way he won't be on the final ballot, barring some extraordinary circumstances in the next few weeks.  

This is Mulcair's to lose.  

wage zombie

I think Topp supporters are likely to break to Mulcair, as part of Topp's appeal is as a Quebecer.  I don't see many of Topp's supporters going to Dewar at all.

Hunky_Monkey

I think people, including myself, need to relax a bit :)

They're all fine New Democrats running for leader. And come March 25, we should all be supportive, as New Democrats, of the party and the new leader. Building a strong caucus and party isn't just the responsibility of the leader but of every single one of us.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

LP, I'm happy to hear that, because I'm convinced Mulcair is the only candidate that can consolidate and grow the NDP's gains both in Quebec and the ROC.

Lord Palmerston

wage zombie wrote:

I think Topp supporters are likely to break to Mulcair, as part of Topp's appeal is as a Quebecer.  I don't see many of Topp's supporters going to Dewar at all.

Probably supporters of ALL camps would go to Mulcair over Dewar if that's the final ballot choice.  Incidentally though I could see Topp's supporters giving more support to Dewar than those of the other candidates.  He is running the most "anti-Mulcair" campaign and he seems to be serving as hatchet man for the Ontario establishment that doesn't want "their" party to be taken over by Mulcair's forces.

DSloth

I think a lot of people are confusing nothing changing in the campaign during those long boring months where nothing much was happening to an actual equilibrium in the electorate.  I imagine quite a few dynamics will change once the final membership numbers are released.  There are still plenty of undecided voters out there, anyone could end up on the final ballot and we've still got a few more days to sign up new members. 

 

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
I think people, including myself, need to relax a bit :) They're all fine New Democrats running for leader. And come March 25, we should all be supportive, as New Democrats, of the party and the new leader. Building a strong caucus and party isn't just the responsibility of the leader but of every single one of us.
Here, here. 

 

wage zombie

wage zombie wrote:

I think Topp supporters are likely to break to Mulcair, as part of Topp's appeal is as a Quebecer.  I don't see many of Topp's supporters going to Dewar at all.

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Probably supporters of ALL camps would go to Mulcair over Dewar if that's the final ballot choice.  Incidentally though I could see Topp's supporters giving more support to Dewar than those of the other candidates.  He is running the most "anti-Mulcair" campaign and he seems to be serving as hatchet man for the Ontario establishment that doesn't want "their" party to be taken over by Mulcair's forces.

Topp's high profile endorsers make up a very small amount of his first ballot voters.  I am saying I think that a higher number of Topp voters will put a high priority on the French than supporters of other candidates.  First ballot voters for Nash, Cullen, and Topp are willing to let the French slide...maybe less so for Nash than for Cullen or Dewar.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
I think people, including myself, need to relax a bit :) They're all fine New Democrats running for leader. And come March 25, we should all be supportive, as New Democrats, of the party and the new leader. Building a strong caucus and party isn't just the responsibility of the leader but of every single one of us.

Would you really support Dewar if he won this race? I sure as hell  won't.

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