Who should lead the federal NDP after Layton?

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Erik Redburn
Who should lead the federal NDP after Layton?

Peggy Nash and Bill Siksay still look pretty good to me.  Any other possibilities, some with less exposure so far?   Anyone West of the Ontario perhaps?  

NorthReport

I think you should Erik.

janfromthebruce

You know, why are you posting this? We are in the middle of a possible election and personally I think it is demeaning. Right now, it is irrelevant.

Erik Redburn

'The Ontario...border" I meant.   Activists outside the party should be eligeable for consideration too.  

Erik Redburn

No interested in that kind of thing North Report, even if I had all the requisite resources, but thanks for asking. 

Not at all 'demeaning' Jan, just a free and fair question posted on an free and usually fair message board.  Not like it'll have any impact in any meaningful way but these kind of questions are always relevant IMO.  Any other potential candidates, after the next election defeat? 

Unionist

janfromthebruce wrote:

... I think it is demeaning.

One usually reserves that strong adjective for worse forms of personal attack than speculating on who should lead a party which democratically elects its leaders.

Erik Redburn

Thank you. If this is seen as inappropriate by most members right now, this thread can always be picked up again post-election.  I'm in no hurry. 

Fidel

janfromthebruce wrote:

You know, why are you posting this? We are in the middle of a possible election and personally I think it is demeaning. Right now, it is irrelevant.

Ya! I'm still trying to figure out whether Count Iggy's received the nod from banksters for a stooge-off with Harper yet, or is it all just a bluff?

But personally, I think both old line parties will be shopping for new stooges if they can't shake the NDP and win a phony one soon. 

 

Debater

Erik Redburn wrote:

Peggy Nash and Bill Siksay still look pretty good to me.  Any other possibilities, some with less exposure so far?   Anyone West of the Ontario perhaps?  

Peggy Nash is a good candidate as she is articulate and bilingual, but which seat would she run in?  I also wonder whether the NDP will have another woman leader for a while since it had 2 women leaders in a row and they both were treated pretty roughly by some voters.

Bill Siksay is a decent constituency MP and certainly did a good job jumping into the fray pretty quickly in order to keep Burnaby-Douglas for the NDP after Svend's sudden departure, but I don't think he is bilingual and I'm not sure if he the leadership type.  He would also probably be judged for being openly gay - even in a pro-gay jurisdiction like Quebec, a leader like Andre Boisclair faced discrimination.

remind remind's picture

I agree Jan!

David Young

Why does anyone think that the next election will be Jack's last?

He's only been the leader for 6 years.  Ed Broadbent had to wait 13 years before his fourth election, (1988) and that was the best result the NDP has ever had.

Given the steady growth in M.P.'s since he took over in 2003 (13-19-29-37), and with the quality of candidates running in winnable ridings, I can see the NDP potentially winning another 15+ seats, passing the Bloc for third place in the House of Commons.

Thinking about who should follow Layton as leader is like asking someone which team they'd want to win the Stanley Cup if their team doesn't make the playoffs....and the season hasn't even started yet!

The job is Layton's until he decides otherwise.

 

Stockholm

Debater wrote:

Peggy Nash is a good candidate as she is articulate and bilingual, but which seat would she run in?  I also wonder whether the NDP will have another woman leader for a while since it had 2 women leaders in a row and they both were treated pretty roughly by some voters.

Gee, I wonder why the Liberals went with another man as leader after having had two men leaders in a row who were treated pretty roughly by some voters.??

I actually this a very sexist analysis. Its as if the performance of any woman in politics immediately reflects on ALL women, while if a male politician screws up its seen as just him screwing up and not as representing some sort of a weakness that applies to all men. It makes me think of something from the Diary of Anne Frank, where Anne writes about how any Christian can do all kinds of evil things and its always just seen as a personal failing that says nothing about Christians as a whole. But anytime anyone Jewish does something bad - suddenly it reflects on every single Jewish person in the world.

martin dufresne

By that standard, any acknowledgment of sexist bias in society can be dismissed as sexist itself. Another Stockholmism...

Unionist

David Young wrote:
... I can see the NDP potentially winning another 15+ seats, passing the Bloc for third place in the House of Commons.

WHAT!!?? You mean Jack isn't running to be PM?

Quote:

The job is Layton's until he decides otherwise.

So much for OMOV.

 

Stockholm

martin dufresne wrote:

By that standard, any acknowledgment of sexist bias in society can be dismissed as sexist itself. Another Stockholmism...

Good grief, you just can't help yourself. Even when I denounce sexism, you try to claim that attacking sexism is sexist. There's is no point having any dialogue with you. If I say black, you'll find a way to say white.

Erik Redburn

Looks like I'm on the same side Stockholm on this one, well, that's politics for you.  :)  

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

Debater wrote:

Peggy Nash is a good candidate as she is articulate and bilingual, but which seat would she run in?  I also wonder whether the NDP will have another woman leader for a while since it had 2 women leaders in a row and they both were treated pretty roughly by some voters.

Gee, I wonder why the Liberals went with another man as leader after having had two men leaders in a row who were treated pretty roughly by some voters.??

I actually this a very sexist analysis. Its as if the performance of any woman in politics immediately reflects on ALL women, while if a male politician screws up its seen as just him screwing up and not as representing some sort of a weakness that applies to all men. It makes me think of something from the Diary of Anne Frank, where Anne writes about how any Christian can do all kinds of evil things and its always just seen as a personal failing that says nothing about Christians as a whole. But anytime anyone Jewish does something bad - suddenly it reflects on every single Jewish person in the world.

Most leaders are men and so they don't get judged by gender as harshly.  When women are leaders they stand out more and are more easily attacked.  Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin were both given a rough time last year for different reasons.  There's actually an article written by a woman journalist about that called "The Bitch and the Ditz" you might be interested in reading.

I just think that women leaders, particularly in Canada, are given a rough time of it.  Chantal Hebert talked about this a few years ago in her book on politics.  I may even be able to find the interview clip of it if you are interested.

A few years ago Suhana Meharchand of CBC said she also finds it suspicious that women are usually elected leaders of parties that aren't expected to win and she mentioned Audrey MacLachlin, Alexa McDonough and Kim Campbell in her examples.

But it certainly would be impressive if the NDP elected another woman leader federally - they are already way ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives on that count.

thorin_bane

Stockholm wrote:

Good grief, you just can't help yourself. Even when I denounce sexism, you try to claim that attacking sexism is sexist. There's is no point having any dialogue with you. If I say black, you'll find a way to say white.

Now now, lets not start getting races involved Tongue out

 

On the thread though..I like the thought of Mulcair even if some veiw him as too old. He is very articulate in both languages and would certainly help out with the seat count in quebec having one of their own as leader.(i'm french BTW so don't get started.)

Debater

thorin_bane wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

Good grief, you just can't help yourself. Even when I denounce sexism, you try to claim that attacking sexism is sexist. There's is no point having any dialogue with you. If I say black, you'll find a way to say white.

Now now, lets not start getting races involved Tongue out

 

On the thread though..I like the thought of Mulcair even if some veiw him as too old. He is very articulate in both languages and would certainly help out with the seat count in quebec having one of their own as leader.(i'm french BTW so don't get started.)

Mulcair has to win his seat first. Wink

Stockholm

I wouldn't say that Mulcair is too old. He's 55 - that makes him about 6 years younger than Iggy right now.

He seems to have all the qualities I would be looking for in a leader. He is PERFECTLY bilingual, he has experience in government, he's very articulate and strategic - what more can we want in a leader? I can't think of anyone else in the NDP that offers those things - unless Gary Doer snapped his fingers and learned French overnight and decided that being leader of the NDP was a better job than being ambassador to Washington.

The only thing Mulcair would need to do would be to brush up on Canada outside Quebec. When you've spent your whole political career as a Quebec politician, there can be a big learning curve to get to know the rest of the country.

Erik Redburn

DY: "Why does anyone think that the next election will be Jack's last?"

 

Not his last, but if he keeps dogpaddling in the wrong direction other names will start receiving praise among latte tasters and champagne testers everywhere...at least outside of the GTA.   ;)

Debater

I agree that age is not much of an issue for Mulcair.  He's younger than most of the current and recent federal party leaders.

ottawaobserver

Well, I think Layton's been doing a terrific job the past couple of weeks, handling the strategic pivot and lead up to the beginning of the Parliamentary session.  The communications are excellent, and if the Conservatives have to leak something to Bob Fife on a Sunday night, you know that things are moving somewhere.  Plus, the Liberal bloggers are throwing hissy fits right now.  I love it.

As a result, the NDP is very well positioned, no matter what the outcome.  If there's an election, Iggy and the PM wear it.  And I think it's becoming evident that this could be one time the public does care about having one and who caused it.  Think David Peterson in 1990.

If there's not, it will have been because Layton was successful in extracting meaningful concessions from Harper that the Liberals, even after supporting him all those many times, just could not obtain.  Either that, or because the Bloc caved (although that's not my reading of where they're at these days).

So, with all due respect to Erik, I am not looking that far down the road yet.  I hope Layton stays a good long time, because I have a funny feeling that things have only just started to get interesting around here ...

adma

Funny how the thread's gone this long without the requisite mention of Nathan Cullen, Charlie Angus, Paul Dewar, etc...

Sean in Ottawa

The thread is totally premature.

When Layton goes we could ahve a different crop-- who knows who will get elected in the next election-- I'd at least wait for that as Layton will lead the party into it-- then a look at who is elected might be helpful.

Erik Redburn

Oh it's very premature if we were actually thinking of a leadership challenge Sean, but no reason not to speculate about other potential leaders or talk up personal favourites.  Another of Layton's failings so far is not allowing other players a small share of the limelight. 

Stockholm

I'm not sure what you mean by that. Mulcair gets lots of limelight and I tend to see a lot of Paul Dewar as well. The thing is that when ou're the fourth largest party in parliiament there isn't all that much "limelight" to share.

remind remind's picture

Yes, I agree Stock, in the last few weeks, I have seen Dewar on the news, Libby was on last night, Mulcair, Comartin, and Peter Julian was on around the first of Sept talking about BC Fisheries.

 

madmax

The NDP has more fighting spirit then people here give it credit for.  Because of this, Jack Layton has at least 2 election cycles in the tank.  No doubt, with the strong caucus surronding him, compared to the dead wood in the other parties, Layton does need to show strength of caucus as much as strength of the leader.  The NDP needs a bigger caucus, and the leader shouldn't be appearing to do it on his own.  

Compare this to the Ignatieff party.  Considering the size and focus on Ignatieff, they do have a few pawns to push around, Like Rae, McCallum, etc.

Same goes for Harper and his party. While the Leader is always a point of focus, strength on the bench is needed.

I think alot of the leadership focus occurred last year, because the ballot question was one of leadership.  At the time, Layton showed the highest leadership ratings, above Harper, and Dion was in the cellar.

It won't be so easy this time around to convince the public that the NDP leader is head and shoulders above the others.

So... Who is going to replace Harper and Ignatieff and May? People on babble may as well go for the clean sweep. LOL 

 

 

 

 

Caissa

Next leader should be Olivia Chow.

remind remind's picture

Oh ya, I have seen Olivia on the news recently too.

Layton sure is hogging the spotlight! :rolleyes:

Debater

madmax wrote:

The NDP has more fighting spirit then people here give it credit for.  Because of this, Jack Layton has at least 2 election cycles in the tank.  No doubt, with the strong caucus surronding him, compared to the dead wood in the other parties, Layton does need to show strength of caucus as much as strength of the leader.  The NDP needs a bigger caucus, and the leader shouldn't be appearing to do it on his own.  

Compare this to the Ignatieff party.  Considering the size and focus on Ignatieff, they do have a few pawns to push around, Like Rae, McCallum, etc.

Same goes for Harper and his party. While the Leader is always a point of focus, strength on the bench is needed.

I think alot of the leadership focus occurred last year, because the ballot question was one of leadership.  At the time, Layton showed the highest leadership ratings, above Harper, and Dion was in the cellar.

It won't be so easy this time around to convince the public that the NDP leader is head and shoulders above the others.

So... Who is going to replace Harper and Ignatieff and May? People on babble may as well go for the clean sweep. LOL 

Unfortunately not.  At no point did Layton ever top Harper on the leadership ratings.  Harper remained ahead on the leadership ratings throughout the campaign.  Dion did fare poorly though - Latyon did often place ahead of him on the rankings.

janfromthebruce

Actually, Layton was way ahead of Dion, and pretty well placed 2nd in leadership. I beleive near the very end of the last election campaign, he did top Harper once, and also noted that the after the election, MSM folks stated that the NDP ran a great campaign.

Of course, one didn't hear that till after the election. Gee, msm and their corporate backers don't really want the NDP to get ahead!

Debater

At no point did Layton place ahead of Harper on the Nanos leadership index - Harper maintained a clear lead on all the leaders throughout the campaign.  Layton did place ahead of Dion for most of the campaign though, apart from on a few occasions where Dion managed to finish 2nd such as after the time of the French debate.

Because he was able to beat the leader of the official opposition on the leadership index, it did make Layton come across as a stronger leader.  The challenge this time though will be to beat Ignatieff on that leadership index - that will be a harder task than it was beating Dion.

St. Paul's Prog...

I think Mulcair would make a great leader.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I think that the NDP should make Libby their next leader.  As House Leader she has proven her self capable of leading the party in the House and she has the ability to speak about progressive policies and articulate them in a manner that garners both support and respect. I also believe that a Libby leadership bid would have Bill Siksay and his people jumping on board early and with enthusiasm.  They like many of the people who supported Jack's leadership bid thought they were getting more of a progressive than he has turned out to be.  

If the NDP does not make any major breakthroughs in this time of economic meltdown then it will be time to ditch Jack and get a true voice of the people speaking as the leader.

 

Libby for Leader Go Libby GO

Stockholm

She doesn't speak any French - instant disqualification - GONG!

St. Paul's Prog...

Which NDP MPs can speak French?

Debater

David Young wrote:

Why does anyone think that the next election will be Jack's last?

He's only been the leader for 6 years.  Ed Broadbent had to wait 13 years before his fourth election, (1988) and that was the best result the NDP has ever had.

Given the steady growth in M.P.'s since he took over in 2003 (13-19-29-37), and with the quality of candidates running in winnable ridings, I can see the NDP potentially winning another 15+ seats, passing the Bloc for third place in the House of Commons.

Thinking about who should follow Layton as leader is like asking someone which team they'd want to win the Stanley Cup if their team doesn't make the playoffs....and the season hasn't even started yet!

The job is Layton's until he decides otherwise.

Jack Layton is not Ed Broadbent.  He's not necessarily going to be leader for as long.

SCB4

Jack will be around for one more election unless the NDP loses seats in the upcoming one.

Stockholm

St. Paul's Progressive wrote:

Which NDP MPs can speak French?

As far as i know, the following NDP MPs can be described as being bilingual to a greater or lesser extent:

Yvan Godin

Thomas Mulcair

Paul Dewar

Jack Layton

Joe Comartin

Chris Charlton (I think)

Carol Hughes

Claude Gravelle

Charlie Angus

Nikki Ashton

Peter Julian

Denise Savoie

Alex Atamanenko (he actually speaks the best French of any of the non-francophones)

There may be more but those are the ones i know of.

Stockholm

"Jack Layton is not Ed Broadbent.  He's not necessarily going to be leader for as long."

That's true - first of all Broadbent was only 39 when he became NDP leader while Jack was already over 50.

I think its a bit simplistic to say that Jack continues as leader or not based on some arbitrary seat count. I tend to think that that after the next election, it will come down to the following factors:

1. Does he WANT to stay in the job?

2. How did the NDP do and what was the conventional wisdom on how good a campaign he ran under the circumstances and how the NDP did compared to expectations. (keep in mind that Broadbent's greatest campaign was in 1984 and yet in the 1984 election the NDP actually dropped from 33 seats in 1980 to 30 seats! - but he was seen as having saved the NDP from possible annhilation in the big Mulroney landslide.

3. What is the configuration of the next H of C? What if the NDP lost a bit of ground and had 30 seats instead of 37, but let's say the Liberals have 130 and the math is clearly there for a Liberal/NDP accord of some sort and the NDP becomes more influential than ever despite having somewhat fewer seats.

4. lastly, is there anyone waiting in the wings who wants the job and who people in the party genuinely think would do better than Jack?

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

St. Paul's Progressive wrote:

Which NDP MPs can speak French?

As far as i know, the following NDP MPs can be described as being bilingual to a greater or lesser extent:

Yvan Godin

Thomas Mulcair

Paul Dewar

Jack Layton

Joe Comartin

Chris Charlton (I think)

Carol Hughes

Claude Gravelle

Charlie Angus

Nikki Ashton

Peter Julian

Denise Savoie

Alex Atamanenko (he actually speaks the best French of any of the non-francophones)

There may be more but those are the ones i know of.

I think that's a pretty good list, although I'm not sure if Paul Dewar and Chris Charlton are considered fluent to the same extent as the others.

Pogo Pogo's picture

I picture Jack Layton as leader for a long time.  I think he truly enjoys the job and he brings a parliamentary negotiation skill that was missing in previous leaders.  When he leaves the party will be taking a step backward.

SCB4

Stockholm wrote:

"Jack Layton is not Ed Broadbent.  He's not necessarily going to be leader for as long."

That's true - first of all Broadbent was only 39 when he became NDP leader while Jack was already over 50.

 

Also keep in mind that, with the upcoming election, Layton will have fought as many electoral battles (4) as Broadbent did during his entire 13 year term as leader. Broadbent spent the first four years of his leadership waiting for the clock to run out on Trudeau's 1974-1979 majority gov't.

One wonders if the fatigue factor (4 elections in 6 years) could influence Layton's decision to stay on, but he strikes me as someone who's in it for the long haul.

Debater

Well Gilles Duceppe has certainly stayed leader for longer than people expected, so it's possible.

adma

The thread question is plausible on a different count: who knows what kinds of Grant Notleyesque "acts of god" might strike Jack.  Think of it as emergency planning...

V. Jara

If any of the francophone MPs ran, they would have my knee-jerk support:

Denise Savoie

Yvon Godin

Claude Gravelle

Next, among the bilingual anglophones:

Tom Mulcair

Carole Hughes

Peter Julian

Peggy Nash

Alex Atamanenko


In my books, the leadership frontrunners should be Denise Savoie and Tom Mulcair. They are both from major media markets, fluently bilingual, from opposite ends of the country, possess strong environmental credentials, worked or collaborated with other parties, politically skilled, and demonstrate leadership abilities. Carole Hughes and Yvon Godin are possible dark horse candidates because of their charisma.

 

West Coast Lefty

Denise Savoie is my MP and would be an incredible leader for the party, but I am quite certain she's not interested.  She is one of those rare politicians who is truly in the arena purely out of commitment to the issues and public service, not for personal advancement or ego.  She is very dedicated to environmental issues and commands respect across partisan lines both in Ottawa and in the riding.  Denise brings tremendous strengths to the caucus and we are very proud to have her as our MP from Victoria. 

I think Mulcair has many qualities - he is intelligent and a hard worker and he has helped build a solid team of candidates and organizers in Quebec.  Rocheleau's 20% in Hochelaga this week would not have been possible without Mulcair's Outremont breakthrough and sustained media profile in Quebec.  That said, in contrast to Savoie, Mulcair is extremely partisan and sometimes comes across as more about the style and messaging than substance - maybe an unfair perception but that is what I perceive in him at times.  I also don't know if he could keep a team together and bring in folks from various perspectives the way Jack has done so well over the last 6 years.  That said, he is a huge asset to the party and I am fine with him as Deputy Leader and prominent Finance Critic, just not sure if he is the right choice for leader.

Peggy Nash is (sadly) no longer an MP but I have thought of her as a strong candidate for leader for a long time.  She has the strong labour background that Savoie and Mulcair don't have but also very credible environmental credentials.  I think Peggy has the potential to bring together NGOs and social movements, labour and the NDP in a way that very few other candidates could do.  She is bilingual and I hope to see her back in the House after the next election.

The other MPs listed are all great but I don't see any of them as leadership material at this point.  In the caucus, Megan Leslie has enormous potential for growth and could be a future leader if she can develop her French skills over time.

 

autoworker autoworker's picture

Unite the Left, then find a new leader...or find a leader who can unite the Left?  Either way, she/he would need to be an outsider, I think.  Does that broaden or narrow the search?

ottawaobserver

Why are people even talking about throwing out a leader with a 10 year strategic plan who's made so much progress implementing it?  This is nuts.

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