Who should replace Jack Layton?

105 posts / 0 new
Last post
Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture
Who should replace Jack Layton?

Layton will lead the NDP into the next election, but I'd like to start thinking about who should eventually replace him. I like Charlie Angus. Smile

Caissa

Brad Lavigne.

Unionist

Alexa McDonough.

 

Peter3

Charlie is an interesting possibility, for sure. Rural constituency, but strong connection to urban arts communities and anti-poverty groups; fantastic speaker and generally charismatic guy.

 Depending on how things shake out in Quebec next time, Thomas Mulcair may be in the mix with strong support.

 Judy Wasylycia-Leis? Libby Davies?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Peter3 wrote:
 Judy Wasylycia-Leis?

Judy is my second choice, after Charlie. I'd be happy with either. I think either one could do a good job of knocking Harper or Iggy off their game.

Caissa

I'd like someone who could actually achieve government.

Sarann

I like Judy!!! If winning government means the NDP changes their values and goals then don't do it.  NDP candidates, run on a positive note telling Canadians what you believe in and what your policies are at every opportunity.

robbie_dee

Bob Rae

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Laughing

ReeferMadness

Caissa wrote:

I'd like someone who could actually achieve government.

It's unrealistic to think the NDP is going to form a government anytime soon under FPTP.  Look to the future when we have PR and start thinking about NDP as part of a coalition.

STV is coming to BC and this could help pave the way for PR in the rest of Canada.

robbie_dee

Actually I really would like to see that. As Winston Churchill once said (upon switching from the Conservatives, to the Liberals, and then back to the Conservatives again): "Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain ingenuity to re-rat."

Stockholm

The people I'd like to see run next time (I don't know you yet which i would like best) would obviously include Tom Mulcair, Charlie Angus (as many have mentioned) and also Nathan Cullen (believe it or not the NDP has never had a leader from BC), Paul Dewar. I think Judy W-L is a great MP but I think she may be over 60 and the next leader should come from a younger generation. Another consideration is who is or is not bilingual.

With all due respect to boom boom, I think that it is 100% essential that anyone leading the NDP ALWAYS make it clear that they are running for Prime Minister - if you say right off the bat that you are not running to win, you will be treated accordingly. I was actually pleasantly surprised at how well Layton's "I'm running to be PM" lines worked in the last election.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Caissa wrote:

I'd like someone who could actually achieve government.

Are Canadians ready to be lead by the NDP? I don't see much evidence of that. I want a strong NDP to force a government to enact progressive legislation - in other words, a minority govt with a strong NDP holding the balance of power. That's going to be difficult as long as the CPC/LPC are about equal in current polls, and with the BQ holding more seats than the NDP. I don't want any more of Jack Layton's "I'm running to be Prime Minister" because that just makes folks (especially in the media) roll their eyes.

ETA:

I think the most effective message for the NDP is something like this: "Tired of the Conservatives and Liberals? Vote NDP, and we will hold the government to account."

First, it's an honest acknowledgement that the party likely will not form the government, but, secondly, that the party will fight to keep the government honest and on a progressive path.

 

Unionist

Judy Wasylycia-Leis is a shameless shill for the Israeli regime and its crimes. Maybe you could have Pat Martin as deputy leader and make the scandal complete. Or perhaps Michael Ignatieff.

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Oops. Embarassed Okay, so Charlie Angus, then.

robbie_dee

Does Niki Ashton (MP for Churchill, MB) speak french? I was impressed that she organized and knocked off anti-SSM MP Bev Desjarlais for the riding nomination in 2006. And at 27 years old she would certainly represent a generational shift.

I'd also put forward as a possibility Peter Julian, MP for Burnaby-New Westminster, BC, and former provincial secretary of the NDP Quebec Section. [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Julian]Wikipedia[/url] says he's "fluently bilingual and is also functional in American Sign Language."

Finally I might also mention Toronto mayor David Miller, who isn't currently a New Democrat but hasn't gone all the way over to the dark side the way Bob Rae has, either. Miller might be the most credible candidate who "could actually achieve government" given that he has actually achieved government, quite successfully by most accounts, running Canada's largest city (with a population larger than Manitoba and Saskatchewan combined) for the past six years. Given that he seems to enjoy being mayor of Toronto, though, its a big question whether he would want to give that up just to be leader of the fourth party in Ottawa.

3Forward

grant me this: each NDP MP is a passionate, skilled and dedicated progressive community leader in her-his own right, like Obama in a way. they are themselves community organizers, and more. except Canada has more than one strong, progressive legislator, holding cons and libs' feet to the fire daily for decades now. currently we have 36. -untold story re. NDP

(Trudeau got Charter passed cause from what i heard: Ed and Blaikie line: if you don't include women's rights and first nations' rights in this charter we ain't budging, etc. -i am paraphrasing of course :) imagine where our country would be today if it weren't for NDP MPs tireless work over the years. Jack is doing a good job, we certainly need to continue to support his efforts and the work of all NDP MPs. did you know that NDP does most of the legislative etc. work on the Hill and tireless work in their riding offices to help citizens every day-with a fraction of the resources other parties including the separatist bloc. isn't that enough to move you and others? it's amazing what this group of Canadians has been doing day in day out. it really is. hats off to them.

my take-next NDP leader that would naturally follow Jack, after next election, needs to be an uncompromising/principled individual, inspiring to Canadians and to those beyond our borders, eloquent, strong, passionate, who believes that we activists/idealists are essential to the planet's health and humanity, that is peaceful and encourages others to be peaceful, a true-blue progressive social democrat/legislator, who recognizes the link between NDP and civil society, labour and environmental movements as an organic movement (wasn't the NDP from its inception the parliamentary wing of Canada's progressive social-labour movt? the sooner we all recognize that and spread the word re. NDP history, the better off our country and peoples will be), the real deal: how about the current NDP trade critic Peter Julian?

 

 

 

aka Mycroft

Stockholm wrote:

(believe it or not the NDP has never had a leader from BC),

Yes and no. Tommy Douglas actually represented a BC riding when he was leader - Burnaby-Coquitlam from 1962 to 1968 and then Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands.

Of course, he was "from BC" in the same carpet-bagging way that John Turner and Stockwell Day were "from BC" when they led their parties :)

babblerwannabe

perferably someone who is not a straight cisgender, heterosexual  white male.

Jerk Jaws

How come nobody mentioned Ms Chow-Layton as potential NDP leader?  Cool 

It's a fine line the NDP walks--  as power-hungry as any self-respecting political party and yet doing their best when holding government's feet to the fire...   

Bookish Agrarian

This thread is based on a stupid premise.  It is unlikely there will be any push for Layton to leave after the next election, whenever that might be.  The only way that would happen is if there is a real downward shift in seats and given declining Conservative numbers and a bit of a push back up for the Liberals there may be seats available that weren't in the last election even if the popular vote percentage is down.

Layton is staying and that is a very good thing for the NDP and for progressive issues in Canada.  The Liberals are ducking and covering on anything that even whiffs of the slightest progressive notion.

Stockholm

I am as big a supporter of Layton as anyone, but I don't think the question of who should succeed him is such a stupid premise. No one is there forever. I tend to think that unless the NDP lost over half its seats and the Liberals won a majority in the next election (unlikely) - Layton can lead the NDP for about as long as he wants to. That being said, being party leader is a tough grueling job and after a fourth election, he may decide that he's had enough.

All that being said, just because there is no vacancy at the head of the NDP doesn't mean that we can't speculate on potential "dauphins". At least its nice to know that there are so many good names being bandied about. It sure beats the situation in Ontario where Hampton quit and everyone looked at the people running to succeed him like the way you would look at a platter of pureed spinach!

thorin_bane

I like Mulcair for his oration. But I don't see us changing leader for at least one more election.

Bookish Agrarian

I agree Stockholm, but the premise that Boom Boom based his thread on is that Layton is some kind of drag on the NDP and MUST be replaced.  That's just wrong.

ottawaobserver

I think it looks like Layton is ready to launch a new strategic gambit (he's called a news conference for Monday morning to discuss their strategy for the rest of the session).  The caucus and party are in the process of staffing up and building towards the August convention in Halifax, and as mentioned in another thread, the Iggy tax comments and instant reversal of same, are just the latest indication that the bloom may be set to come off that rose.  So, I don't think Layton is near out of ideas yet.

Any good leader does her/his best to recruit possible successors and give them opportunities to widen their own experience, and lots of potential leaders are being given plenty of chance to broaden their exposure and deepen their experience in the caucus right now.

But the big event that any consideration of next steps would have to take into account is the retirement of Gilles Duceppe.  It has to come eventually, and although there are many capable MPs in the Bloc Caucus, I wonder if any of them have the strategic chops Duceppe has (that guy has nine lives).  If that succession doesn't go well, and the NDP is well positioned, we may be looking at a very different landscape.

Frank Graves was claiming that yesterday's Ekos numbers were around the same levels that Chretien won majorities with.  But, Chretien did so with two right-wing parties, the Bloc in Quebec, and a very weak NDP.  The math is hard for the Liberals right now, but if the Conservatives split up again, or if the Bloc disappears, there is a potentially very disruptive situation in the making.

I think we're well positioned with Layton, but looking down the road a Mulcair bid could be quite interesting.

Michelle

I didn't see Boom Boom say that.

Bookish Agrarian

In the polling thread

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/new-polling-thread-0

 

 

I think Layton's "best before" date has expired, especially after that hilarious shot of him in the last election with Parliament Hill in the background and Layton declaring he's running to be Prime Minister. I like the guy, really, I do, but it's time for a change.

meades meades's picture

My choice would be Carol Hughes, MP for Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing.
Strong labour ties as a former CLC organizer, articulate, fluently bilingual (she's franco-ontarienne), strong class politics, down to earth, and a proven fighter (she's largely responsible for the NDP's growth in Algoma. Before her, Algoma was seen as a safe liberal seat, federally). Not sure if she would run, though.

As for who I'm sure would:
Pat Martin
Thomas Mulcair
Charlie Angus

Linda Duncan would be an interesting possibility, if the isolation of being the lone New Democrat in Alberta doesn't make Parliament seem less palatable in the long run.

no1important

Gary Doer

nussy

Thomas Mulcair. Layton's best days are behind him.

Debater

nussy wrote:

Thomas Mulcair. Layton's best days are behind him.

Mulcair will probably be defeated by the Liberals in the next election.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Bookish Agrarian wrote:
In the polling thread

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/new-polling-thread-0

I think Layton's "best before" date has expired, especially after that hilarious shot of him in the last election with Parliament Hill in the background and Layton declaring he's running to be Prime Minister. I like the guy, really, I do, but it's time for a change.

 

I thought it was fairly obvious that I started this thread as an outgrowth of the polling thread. Well, guess I was wrong.Kiss

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Debater wrote:

nussy wrote:

Thomas Mulcair. Layton's best days are behind him.

Mulcair will probably be defeated by the Liberals in the next election.

Who's the Liberal running against Mulclair? I thought Mulclair won quite easily last time. Tom is a gem, a great MP.

ottawaobserver

Mulcair got a bit of a fight towards the end, but it is true that many Liberals did not want to run against him.  This time there was talk about Martin Cauchon running again, but after that Vancouver Sun story on the weekend ...

By the way, for the record, I do not agree with premise of the posters who are looking to replace Layton now.  Remember, Harper was written off by the media and punderati the summer before he won the 2006 election.  They somehow missed that he was going back to basics and rebuilding a better campaign machine.

Debater

Boom Boom wrote:

Debater wrote:

nussy wrote:

Thomas Mulcair. Layton's best days are behind him.

Mulcair will probably be defeated by the Liberals in the next election.

Who's the Liberal running against Mulclair? I thought Mulclair won quite easily last time. Tom is a gem, a great MP.

I don't think a Liberal candidate has been nominated, but whichever Liberal is nominated will probably win.  Mulcair won the seat by a large margin in the by-election, but he only won it by a small margin in the general election.

Now that the Liberals are high in the polls under Ignatieff, they will likely re-take traditional strongholds like Outremont that a bumbling leader like Dion could not.

Bookish Agrarian

Muclair won by 6 1/2 per cent.  A pretty healthy win.  Anyone with any experience will tell you incumbents, regardless of party are hard to beat unless you see a sweep happening either nationally or regionally.

It might be tough, but Muclair has all the advantage.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Mulclair is by far the most dominant personality on Newman's 'Politics' broadcast, when he appears. No one comes close, in either the CPC or LPC caucus. I think Liberals and Conservatives alike are afraid to debate him, for good reason.

Bookish Agrarian

Basing a by-election vote comparison to a general election is a muggs game. 

Debater

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

Muclair won by 6 1/2 per cent.  A pretty healthy win.  Anyone with any experience will tell you incumbents, regardless of party are hard to beat unless you see a sweep happening either nationally or regionally.

It might be tough, but Muclair has all the advantage.

 

I disagree.  The Liberals almost beat him on October 14 even though they ran a bad campaign with a last-minute candidate.

 

I note that his vote fell about 8 points and that the Liberals went up by 4 points:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outremont_(electoral_district)

 

With the Liberals likely to go up several more points in the next election in Quebec and the NDP down (based on current polls), it will be hard for Mulcair to win.  Chantal Hebert has written about this as well.

Debater

The analysis is based on the polling trends discussed by Quebec analysts and pollsters that the Liberals have recovered in Quebec and that they are going to re-take areas that basically only were lost because of Dion.

ottawaobserver

Welcome to Babble, Debater.  You'll learn that people here take polling trends discussed by analysts with the grain of salt they deserved.  If all the polls and pundits were right, John Turner, Kim Campbell and Paul Martin would all have won large majority governments.  As others have pointed out, it's a bit early now to start writing the story of an election that won't be held for a good long time.

madmax

I actually felt that the NDP September Election Campaign was the best of all 3 major parties. The Liberals was a train wreck. The Conservatives was flat, boring, and hopeful, in that they were hoping if they said nothing, the public would give them a majority while the Liberals self destructed.

I don't believe that Layton suggesting that he was running for Prime Minister backfired. It could have but it didn't, and it didn't because the media had always suggested that the Federal NDP doesn't run to win. There was some mud slinging by the media shortly after, but it was ineffectual as few people were tuned into the election campaign.

There is little doubt the NDP ran the best campaign of the bunch, and possibly one of their best. Everyone I know liked their commercials, even if they weren't voting for them, and in Liberal Ridings, there were many Partisan letters suggesting that people not be taken in by these slickly produced adds. Ofcourse the Liberal adds were shit, and about as professional as Dions personal media address in November. Yes, desperate and flop city.

However, the Canadian Public doesn't watch alot of Canadian Television or Canadian networks, so many people missed the adds of all the parties as well as the daily media coverage. It is surprising how many people don't even follow Canadian News.

I still believe the NDP has to rid itself of the December stench.  I see Ignatieff is pulling in large crowds in many cities, especially across the "Rust Belt", where people believe he will save the economy.  Is Mr Layton being displaced by Ignatieff? And is Harper being displaced? It appears so... and perhaps the public has had enough of Harpers Political games during this horrific downturn.

 

I don't think the NDP should consider replacing Layton until after the next election. He has lead the NDP from Oblivion, and with success comes criticism. And lots of it. Right now it is not the NDP policies that are holding it back, it is the image of the party and the image of the Leader. The policies can be adopted by the LPC and sold by Ignatieff during his honeymood period. The Image of the LPC has almost changed overnight. Corruption and incompetence is forgotten. How much of this is to be set on the doorstep of Mr. Layton?  Alot of it is shared by two leaders. Harper for instigating a crises, and Layton for trying to create a coalition. And this could be why they have more negative numbers (See polling thread), and Ignatief played no part in the LPC misfortunes of this period.

If Mr Layton cannot reform his image as well as  meet more of the people who would benefit the policies of the NDP to be implemented, and win their support, then the NDP will be stuck with a media savy, photogenic and interesting personality that could be completely rejected in the next election.  The NDP will not be able to hold ground on "Jack Layton" or spiffy adds, but require "goin back to basics, and rebuilding a better campaign machine.

 

If the NDP are wiped off the map in the next election, I would be hard pressed to name a replacement.

Mulcair, Doer sound interesting but I know little about them.

 

 

Judy Wasylycia-Leis, isn't there a limit on the length of the name and being a party leader? I think its 9. Anymore then nine letters in your last name and you can't run Tongue out

 

THere are NDP MPs that I do like, but I don't know if they have leadership capacity.

 

 

 

Bookish Agrarian

If I had a dollar for every time the 'experts' were dead wrong I would be able to afford to get myself something rather nice and shiny with all the dough I had.

melovesproles

The NDP really shouldn't get too skittish about the polls right now.  I think, the Cons have been wounded far worse.  People are very sick of Harper and right now Ignatieff has that 'newness' sheen and some people are so eager to give Harper the boot that voting strategically for Liberal is more palatable than it was.  That said, there is also a sense out there that Iggy is twofaced and a warmonger.  The NDP could do quite well in fortifying and expanding their position with the right message.

I think Layton has been an alright leader, a B-, which has been significantly better than what the Liberals have fielded and not that much less competent than Harper.  He definitely grates on some people, I've always thought he was way better when he is a bit off the cuff, he has gotten pretty good at handling hostile interviews which can't be easy.  I think the NDP could certainly do a lot worse.

I think Cullen would be an interesting choice, I like what I know about Angus too.  Siskay and Davies are probably my favorite MPs.

Bookish Agrarian

Down the road I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Comartin take another run,

ottawaobserver

Actually I think Comartin may be a leading candidate to replace Milliken as Commons Speaker.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I don't bleieve Layton will be replaced before the next election, which could happen as early as this fall. We're talking about his eventual successor.

Daedalus Daedalus's picture

Boom Boom wrote:
Are Canadians ready to be lead by the NDP? I don't see much evidence of that. I want a strong NDP to force a government to enact progressive legislation - in other words, a minority govt with a strong NDP holding the balance of power. That's going to be difficult as long as the CPC/LPC are about equal in current polls, and with the BQ holding more seats than the NDP. I don't want any more of Jack Layton's "I'm running to be Prime Minister" because that just makes folks (especially in the media) roll their eyes.

ETA:

I think the most effective message for the NDP is something like this: "Tired of the Conservatives and Liberals? Vote NDP, and we will hold the government to account."

Aim high, let them roll their eyes. The NDP should be out to win every election, regardless of their electoral history or chances. And they should keep coming back saying they want to win. I think part of the reason the NDP kept gaining seats in the last few elections is precisely because of that stance.

I simply won't vote for a party that doesn't want to deliver a government to me. Keep the government honest? Yeah, right - you don't think any eyes will roll over that?

Strategic voters are really primed for the NDP this time round, I think moreso than even the last couple of elections, with Iggy - a neocon weasel - at the helm of the Liberal party and little threat of another Conservative government (in name, anyway). I think the Libs must be looking to pick up Con/Lib swing votes in this next one and won't have much time to focus on appealing to swing votes on the left.

melovesproles

I agree with that. 

An aunt of mine has been a strategic Liberal voter in the last several elections at the Federal level(at the provincial level she is a big NDP supporter and loathes Gordon Cambell)-try as I might to point out what a rightwing fuckhead Paul Martin was, she was so petrified Stephen Harper would get us involved in WW3 and that her son would be drafted that she refused to consider voting for the NDP.  I was kind of surprised after all the fawning press Ignatieff has received that without any prompting on my part she thinks he is just another war mongerer like Stephen Harper and wouldn't consider voting for him.  I'm not exactly sure where she gets her biases, I don't think Martin was significantly better than Ignatieff, but I do think there will be real potential for peeling more centre-left voters from the Liberals in the next election.  The NDP needs to really get serious about foreign policy though, hopefully they get a competent and principled replacement for Dawn Black, someone feisty who really knows their stuff.  Maybe Siskay?

Coyote

Siskay does not appeal to the centre-left, on any issue.

Polls are a mugs game, so are leadership debates - fun as they are. Not a lot of people would have seen Layton coming in early prognostications about Alexa's successor. Everyone in Saskatchewan was convinced for years that Andrew Thomson was chomping at the bit to pick up after Calvert.

I think there are a lot of talented New Democrats in provincial legislatures, on City councils, and in civil society who should give it a thought, when Layton sends signals he's leaving.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

For a very brief moment I thought about starting a similar thread about Stephen Harper, but dismissed it just as quickly, because who gives a shit about who replaces Harper? (I think it eventually will be Peter Mackay or John Baird) LaughingLaughingLaughing

Pages

Topic locked