Who will be official opposition leader after the next election?

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NorthReport
Who will be official opposition leader after the next election?

+_+

NorthReport

Chantal Hebert suggested today that it will be Gilles Duceppe. I believe she may well be correct, unless.....

robbie_dee

Justin Trudeau.

remind remind's picture

LOLOLOL

 

Sean in Ottawa

Stephen Harper...

Sean in Ottawa

until their leadershit convention

Unionist

"Opposition leader" - isn't that an oxymoron?

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

If there actually was a gawd,the next opposition leader WOULD be Duceppe,followed by Ignatieff and,in this small distant corner,weighing in at one fake lake,wearing the tin foil head gear,Stephen Harper.

Sean in Ottawa

Dunno but the current one seems to be a regular moron.

JKR

Don Cherry

NorthReport

unless.....

Liberal Democrats eh!

Would Dippers be more receptive to a merger with the Liberals if Layton was to become the leader?

In that case my answer would be Harper. 

Red_and_Black Red_and_Black's picture

My money's on the Hamburglar. He carries alot of the youth vote

Sean in Ottawa

No-- I am assuming coalition not merger

I hope Canadians will get out on the streets demanding a coalition within hours of the vote coming out...

Caissa

Only if a stanley cup is won by a canadian team that night, Sean.

JKR

Celine Dion

Sean in Ottawa

Big organizations ought to be prepared to help mobilize and organize.

It should be managed like the prorogation rallies.

It should be possible to get thousands out with very little organizaing and get the ball rolling.

NorthReport

The most likely scenario at this point will be the Bloc becoming the official opposition after the next election so I doubt very much there will be much energy for a coalition.

After the election, the voters are out of the process, and the political parties will decide what happens according to their number of MPs.

Stockholm

I think the NDP is much likely to be the official opposition than the BQ (not that I expect that either).

If the Liberals do badly enough to get fewer than 50 seats then the NDP would be getting breakthroughs all over the place and grabbing a lot of formerly Liberal seats.

Sean in Ottawa

I think if the NDP and the Liberals do not forma  coalition the following campaign should break the Liberals forever.

The NDP should run a direct attack on them if they forgo an attempt at governing-- they would be the waste of space party.

Policywonk

Stockholm wrote:

I think the NDP is much likely to be the official opposition than the BQ (not that I expect that either).

If the Liberals do badly enough to get fewer than 50 seats then the NDP would be getting breakthroughs all over the place and grabbing a lot of formerly Liberal seats.

If the Liberal vote were to collapse further a number of formerly Conservative seats west of Ontario could go NDP too (in a best case scenario, in which Harper would be opposition leader, or perhaps still Prime Minister with a reduced minority at least until he resigns (voluntarily or otherwise as either Prime Minister, Conservative Party leader, or both)). However the worst case scenario is that many Liberal supporters wouldn't vote or vote Conservative, in which case the the official opposition could have less than 50 seats, and the Conservatives would have a majority. I guess who becomes Opposition Leader depends not only on what party or combination of parties has the most seats after the next election, but what the Liberals might do if they finish behind the NDP in a minority situation.

David Young

Can you imagine what would happen if there were 53 New Democrats, 52 Bloc Quebecois, and 51 Liberals facing 152 Conservatives after the next election?

 

Policywonk

David Young wrote:

Can you imagine what would happen if there were 53 New Democrats, 52 Bloc Quebecois, and 51 Liberals facing 152 Conservatives after the next election?

That's easy. The Liberals would hold the balance of power and support the Conservatives, at least until they get a new Leader and a backbone. In other words, essentially no change in the short term. Longer term who knows.

JKR

If the NDP and Liberals form a coalition after the next election, Steven Harper will be the leader of the opposition.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

JKR wrote:

If the NDP and Liberals form a coalition after the next election, Steven Harper will be the leader of the opposition.

 

I could live with that.

Hoodeet

The worst possible scenario would be a merger based on a surrender by the NDP of some of its core values (or at least its programs) to please the Liberals.  Hope it doesn't happen.

Funny thing, though:  in a merger, the name could reflect the reality of who the Liberal Party are and have been for years:  Neo-Liberals.

Sean in Ottawa

JKR-- read post 4-- I was there first...

I can't see the Liberals losing any support to the Cons right now-- People currently holding their noses tight enough to support the Liberals want to remove Harper.

They could lose votes to the NDP. They could also lose some to the Greens.

I can't see the Cons going above 33%

Therefore it is more likely that the Cons could end up around 120, the Liberals around 75, the NDP with 60 and the BQ with 50.

This result would be devastating for the Liberals-- the following election they would switch places with the NDP.

In this scenario there should be one heck of a fight calling for a coalition

JKR

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Therefore it is more likely that the Cons could end up around 120, the Liberals around 75, the NDP with 60 and the BQ with 50.

This result would be devastating for the Liberals-- the following election they would switch places with the NDP.

 

If the Liberals think they might fall behind the NDP, that might be enough for them to support fair voting. With fair voting the Liberals would still get a substantial amount of seats in the House of Commons even if they fell below 20%. With 20% support the Liberals could count on having 60 seats. With 15% they could count on 45 seats.

If the Liberals became the 3rd party, they would likely be the king makers in most coalition governments. The NDP and Conservatives would take turns leading governments with the Liberals as their junior coalition partners,

ghoris

Quote:
Who will be official opposition leader after the next election?

My guess is interim Liberal leader Ralph Goodale.

Stockholm

I think that unless the Tories win a majority there will be some sort of Liberal/NDP coalition or accord government and the next opposition leader will be an interim Tory leader - I don't know who.

ghoris

Unless the Liberals and NDP command a majority of seats between them (and are therefore not dependent on Bloc support) I do not see a coalition getting off the ground. The Liberals seem to have cooled on the idea of a coalition - I do not know how the 'blue Grits' would countenance a coalition with the NDP when they are ideologically closer to the Tories. The Liberals' current predicament is very much like the position the party found itself in the 1980s under Turner - broke, no direction, unable to get traction against a scandal-ridden government, dropping in the polls, and at risk of being eclipsed by the NDP as the opposition - and yet they bounced back. I would argue that in fact the Liberals were in worse shape in the mid-80s than they are now, and I suspect that a lot of Liberals feel the same way and will thus resist any attempt at coalition or merger with the NDP.

Stockholm

I disagree. Chances are the Liberals and NDP will NOT have a majority - and neither will the Tories. That means that if the Tories want to pass a Throne speech - Harper will have to humiliate himself by holding a summit with Gilles Duceppe and giving the BQ veto power or his government, or he can try to form a formal coalition or accord government with Ignatieff's Liberals (a distinct possibility that doesnt get discussed enough - it would be just like the Con/Dem regime in London), or he can resign.

The Liberals are desparate to be back in power and i think that after the next election they will be willingt to sacrifice their first born son - if it means being back in power in any form. The "blue grits" could have all joined the Tory party in 2008 if they had wanted to. I think that they will look at what happened in 1972-74 and 1985-87 in Ontario and conclude that as long as the Liberals afre the stronger party and occupy the PM's office - they can easily outfox the NDP and win a majority in the following election.

I think there will be mammoth sentiment in the Liberal party after the next election to do whatever it takes to regain power - they don't want to let a Harper throne speech pass in exchnage for nothing and then spend yet another 3 or 4 years in opposition again in exchnage for nothing!

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Stockholm wrote:

I think that unless the Tories win a majority there will be some sort of Liberal/NDP coalition or accord government and the next opposition leader will be an interim Tory leader - I don't know who.

Normally, I'd have loved to see some kind of Liberal/NDP arrangement, except these new far right neocon Liberals can't be trusted. At all. Period.

Caissa

Has anyone suggested Canada's best Parliamentarian, John Baird?

adma

Well, if John Baird's re-elected, that is.  (He's actually one of the more vulnerable Ontario cabmins out there.)

JKR

Jim Prentice or Peter MacKay.

NDPP

Right Wing Agenda Slips Through Canada's Political Deadlock

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52181

"Canada's parliament is so broken and disfunctional that the country is in danger of becoming 'the laughing stock' of the world.."