Who would you like to see lead the LPC?

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Lord Palmerston
Who would you like to see lead the LPC?

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Lord Palmerston

I'm thinking of someone like Martha Hall Findlay - who has stated that she'd never support an NDP-Liberal merger and identifies as a "blue Liberal" that is socially liberal/fiscally conservative.

Or maybe someone like Amanda Lang or Sarah Thomson. 

Mr.Tea

Findlay lost her seat and Sarah Thompson has lost two elections in the past year (mayor and MPP). I don't see either of them exciting too many people.

The reality is that the current caucus is pretty thin in terms of talent. They really sorta screwed themselves when Paul Martin forced out all of his rivals and eliminated any real "bench strength". The next wave of leaders would likely have been drawn from among John Manley, Sheila Copps, Alan Rock, Brian Tobin, etc. but instead they got stuck with second and third tier types like Dion and Iggy.

Of the current caucus, Domenic Leblanc strikes me as most impressive. For the last while, they've tended to alternate between Anglophone and Francophone leaders so a Francophone would tend to be next in line. Of them, I guess there's Denis Coderre. Maybe Marc Garneau but he's getting on in years and may not want to stick around for what could be a long rebuilding period. Justin Trudeau is a cringe-inducing dilletante who got his mother's brains, not his father's.

I think the next leader will come from outside the current caucus. Maybe Dalton McGuinty. Maybe Robert Ghiz (does he speak French?).

adma

In leadership competence, Sarah Thomson would make Kim Campbell look like Margaret Thatcher.  She's like a real life version of what elements of the MSM accuse Ruth Ellen Brosseau of being.

Thank me, I suppose, for planting the "Amanda Lang" mindworm in another thread.

dacckon dacckon's picture

The bluest liberal possible.

genstrike

dacckon wrote:

The bluest liberal possible.

Sorry, I don't think Ignatieff is coming back

dacckon dacckon's picture

Whatabout brenda stolinch? or whatever her name was.

 

There is an urgent need to split the right.

Lord Palmerston

Exactly.

wage zombie

Scott Brison.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Evan Solomon. :ducking

Lord Palmerston

Isn't he the communications director for Bob Rae?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

@Lord Palmerston:

LOL!!!

Well, if I have to offer a choice either Scott Brisson, or "Beaker", John Manley. Talk about Stephen Harper number 2!

But really, my preferred answer is who cares???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ottawaobserver

The Liberals' preferred leadership candidate is someone from out of the new Canadian pool - like a Naheed Nenshi type. Highly educated, economically blue-ish very urban/suburban Liberal, possibly from Quebec. That profile would appeal perfectly to their remaining base - but alas make it difficult to grow too much from. The other option is an easterner with colourful language. Leblanc is dour, but bilingual and ambitious, and his seat isn't the one most in danger in New Brunswick, though he'd add little to the party's growth potential where they need it next time around.

Lord Palmerston

Ralph Goodale...they need to do better in Saskatchewan and Alberta!  The NDP couldn't take Palliser even though Noah Evanchuk received more of the popular vote than Dick Proctor ever did (in other words, the Liberals polled too low).

I think LeBlanc is the most likey though. But ottawaobserver is correct in who would make an ideal candidate for what remains of the support base of the LPC.

ottawaobserver

Goodale is in his 70s, isn't he? He's in good shape, but that's asking a lot. Plus he speaks zero french.

Lord Palmerston

He's 62.

Winston

Kevin Lamoureux!  Laughing

 

ottawaobserver

I hope they pick Lamoureux; that would be the end of them.

Doug

ottawaobserver wrote:

The Liberals' preferred leadership candidate is someone from out of the new Canadian pool - like a Naheed Nenshi type. Highly educated, economically blue-ish very urban/suburban Liberal, possibly from Quebec. That profile would appeal perfectly to their remaining base - but alas make it difficult to grow too much from. The other option is an easterner with colourful language. Leblanc is dour, but bilingual and ambitious, and his seat isn't the one most in danger in New Brunswick, though he'd add little to the party's growth potential where they need it next time around.

 

Yes, I agree that's what the Liberals really should be going for. As for my preference, Bob Rae has been nicely invisible so I'm fine if he keeps the job permanently.

Uncle John

Leblanc has the royal Liberal jelly. He does not seem to have stirred up any controversy. And the party has its powerbase in Atlantic Canada. And he is young enough to sit it out while the Conservatives expend their political capital on the social counterrevolution, the neoliberal agenda, and throwing bones to their Bible base.

Stockholm

I think the Liberals should make John McCallum their new leader.Cool

Lord Palmerston

Questions to think about: How much lower does the Liberal vote need to go from an NDP point of view (if at all)?  What proportion of the Liberal voters are "progressive" and would seriously consider voting NDP?  Which Liberal MPs would switch?

Hunky_Monkey

Curious... do we want a Liberal leader who pretends to be like a New Democrat or do we want a blue business Liberal?

It may seem that we'd want the blue Liberal but what happens to many former Liberal voters who went Tory if Harper drops in popularity? Where would old and new red Tories go?

adma

If the NDP can have Brian Topp, the Liberals can have Warren Kinsella;-)

edmundoconnor

Adma, you do know that Kinsella has breathlessly announced he is running for the federal Liberal nomination for Beaches-East York, don't you? Be careful what you wish for. That said, I don't think Kellway's campaign will hurt for funds or volunteers if Kinsella does get it (it all depends how desperate the local Liberal riding association is, I suppose).

edmundoconnor

Ralph is not bad for a Liberal, but he's running on personal vote now, not the Liberal brand. The moment he retires (not too far in the future), Wascana instantly flips to being a Tory-NDP battle, although a residual Liberal vote could upset things either way in such an election.

The Liberal brand is dead on the Prairies. Bob Rae visited Saskatoon during the election campaign out of a sense of obligation and to let those few Liberals know that they hadn't been totally abandoned (just mostly). Although making a visit to SRB, where the Liberal eventually garnered less than 700 votes was a curious choice.

edmundoconnor

Winston wrote:

Kevin Lamoureux!  Laughing

Excellent! So next election, the Liberal leader can lose his own seat – again!

vermonster

edmundoconnor wrote:

The Liberal brand is dead on the Prairies. Bob Rae visited Saskatoon during the election campaign out of a sense of obligation and to let those few Liberals know that they hadn't been totally abandoned (just mostly). Although making a visit to SRB, where the Liberal eventually garnered less than 700 votes was a curious choice.

I'd argue that in addition to a token showing the flag in Saskatchewan, Rae's visit served another purpose - a deliberate attempt to sabotage the surging NPD's chance in a number of close races in the provinces. At that point in the campaign, the Liberals still viewed themselves as being in a contest for Official Opposition with the NPD - so undercutting any NPD potential gains in the prairies was an unstated, but clear, part of the Liberal strategy. 

The party that for years tried to poach NPD voters with a "strategic voting" argument wanted to stop Liberal leaning voters from casting a strategic vote for a New Democratic candidate - so they sent turncoat Bob Rae to try to stop that from happening.

If you take Wascana out of the calculations, the Liberals received barely 5% of the vote in Saskatchewan - even with Goodale, they only won 8%. But the Liberal vote exceeded the Conservative margin of victory in 3 ridings (including SBR, where it may have been enough to cost Nettie Wiebe a seat....). 

West Coast Greeny

Nobody raising the name of Trudeau?

edmundoconnor

Vermonster, I don't doubt that, especially given the person involved. He was also probably salting away brownie points for when Iggy got destroyed: "See, what a loyal Liberal I am!"

Having worked on Wiebe's campaign (in a minor capacity), I don't know what else the campaign could have done to squeeze out the remaining Liberals. Once you get down to death-or-glory bedrock Liberals (I'm guessing 700 or so is a reasonable amount for a riding the size of SRB), then no amount of convincing will make them vote anything but Liberal. 700 votes is pretty woeful, though, even bearing in mind the Liberal record in non-Wascana SK.

edmundoconnor

West Coast Greeny wrote:

Nobody raising the name of Trudeau?

Not since Justin said he didn't want the job.

Uncle John

Re: B-EY (my current home). Kellway, noted NDP union bureaucrat. Kinsella, noted Liberal lawyer. Tories really hate Kinsella, especially as he called Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader Tim Hudak out as a misogynist lying scumbag fratboy racist Teabagger. Kellway, then, should ask for the provincial PC mailing list (which he will probably get). All he has to do is call them and say "Even if the Tories were to run Rob Ford, they wouldn't win. Vote for me! Do you HONESTLY want Kinsella as your MP?"

edmundoconnor

Kinsella will crash and burn. If I can help that along, all the better.

Stockholm

2015 is a long way away...the next Liberal leader may or may not even want a bottom feeder like Kinsella running for their party.

flight from kamakura

i'd like to see rae stay on, the better to expunge/recast his disastrous term (which, btw, will have been over for 20 years by the time of the next vote, meaning that it probably matters very litte now).  my guess is that i'll get my wish.

Uncle John

Unless, of course, Dalton runs for leader of the federal Liberal Party, which is not outside the realm of probable future time-lines. (Warren is tight with Dalton.) Which brings us back to the topic quite nicely.

SO here is a possible time-line:

LeBlanc wins Liberal leadership 2013

Harper or the NDP wins minority government 2015

LeBlanc steps down & Dalton wins Liberal leadership 2016

Dalton runs for the Liberals 2017

ottawaobserver

If Harper loses to an NDP minority in 2015, what happens to the Conservative Party leadership in that timeframe, Uncle John? Because that would at least factor into the Liberals' perceptions of their ability to rebuild in that environment, and/or what kind of leader to go after.

Stockholm

Reading Chantal Hebert today - who cares who leads the Liberals?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1068560--hebert-have...

Threads

Stuart, a correction: your "UBC—Shaughnessy—West Point Grey" riding is more descriptive of Vancouver Quadra than it is Vancouver Centre.

StuartACParker

Sorry I meant Quadra.

StuartACParker

Great Hebert column!

As I was observing to a friend the other day, this is what the terminal phase of liberal parties looks like. This is what the party was like in BC in the 60s and 70s and this is what Nick Clegg's liberals look like: a caucus representing ridings composed of rich people who are too educated, too bourgeois to comfortably vote Tory. The Liberal caucus outside of the Maritimes basically represents a bunch of universities surrounded by wealthy neighbourhoods and/or condos. Ridings like UofT-Ryerson-Rosedale-Distillery District (aka Toronto Centre), UBC-Shaughessy-West Point Grey (aka Vancouver-Quadra), Queens-Kingston-Pricey Cottages (aka Kingston and the Islands), etc. will stay Liberal for a long time. There might even be Liberal resurgence in Calgary-Varsity and West Van-Sunshine Coast but as a national force, the party is not coming back unless some fool re-legalizes corporate donations.

EDIT: Changed to incorporate correction below.

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

I hope they pick Lamoureux; that would be the end of them.

Why do you hope for the end of the Liberals?

Do you want to see Conservative dominance of Canada?

Debater

Mr.Tea wrote:

 Justin Trudeau is a cringe-inducing dilletante who got his mother's brains, not his father's.

That is such an ignorant comment.  First of all, it's not true.  And second of all, the person who came up with that quote thought they were being devastatingly clever, but was actually pretty foolish.  

The most important thing in politics is not intellect or how many degrees one has.  That is something Ignatieff learned the hard way.  It is whether you can connect with people and understand them.  Remember the best-selling book by Dr. Daniel Goleman a few years ago, Emotional Intelligence?  Emotional intelligence is essential in life, and especially to a politician.  Justin has lots of that - it's why he has been able to get elected twice when many others have not.  And it's why he is one of the top politicians in the polls of favourite MP's and has one of the best Twitter followings.  It's also why he has supporters amongst every ethnic community in his riding.  He makes the effort to understand and connect with people.  Perhaps if Ignatieff had bothered to do that he wouldn't have lost his own riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

In any event, Justin will not be running for leader until his children are older.  He and his wife have just had 2 young children, and that is their priority.  But if he does run some day, he has potential.  He isn't guaranteed to be the Messiah some want him to be, but he could do very well.  He appeals to many people - racial minorities, women, gay men, and NDP voters!

Lord Palmerston

I think Forest Hill-Casa Loma-Yonge & Eglinton (a.k.a. St. Paul's) is the last Liberal riding in the country. Being chock full of affluent, highly-educated socially liberal urban professionals, it's a good fit for the likes of Dr. Carolyn Bennett and Eric Hoskins, MD, Ph.D. 

 

toronto_radical

Thomas Mulcair. Clearly he's running for the job after today's announcement.

Lord Palmerston

StuartACParker wrote:
As I was observing to a friend the other day, this is what the terminal phase of liberal parties looks like. This is what the party was like in BC in the 60s and 70s and this is what Nick Clegg's liberals look like: a caucus representing ridings composed of rich people who are too educated, too bourgeois to comfortably vote Tory.

It's also what the Manitoba Liberals look like - the River Heights Party.

dacckon dacckon's picture

Debater wrote:

Why do you hope for the end of the Liberals?

Do you want to see Conservative dominance of Canada?

Wait what? Last time I checked, those liberals in the UK propped up the conservatives there. When looking at second choices(I'm recalling from my rusty memory) the NDP would get around 55% of all votes. There are more progressives than conservatives in Canada.

Unionist

ottawaobserver wrote:

Goodale is in his 70s, isn't he? He's in good shape, but that's asking a lot. Plus he speaks zero french.

Rather than flag this as offensive, let me simply point out that we let women, gays, the disabled, and persons of colour run for office these days... why not old folks? Or are they only up to non-elected office, like the Pope?

Mr.Tea wrote:
Justin Trudeau is a cringe-inducing dilletante who got his mother's brains, not his father's.

Ditto.

What's the matter with folks in this thread? Forgot where we are??

Debater

dacckon wrote:

Debater wrote:

Why do you hope for the end of the Liberals?

Do you want to see Conservative dominance of Canada?

Wait what? Last time I checked, those liberals in the UK propped up the conservatives there. When looking at second choices(I'm recalling from my rusty memory) the NDP would get around 55% of all votes. There are more progressives than conservatives in Canada.

What does the UK have to do with Canada though?

And yes, "progressives", or perhaps more precisely non-Conservatives, do outnumber Conservatives in Canada.  Harper didn't even crack 40% of the vote in May.  But not all of those remaining 60% are going to vote NDP.  The NDP may not be able to attract voters from both the left and the right, eg. red tories, blue liberals etc.  Only the Liberals have been able to do that historically, and that may still be the case, despite the fact that the NDP is in 2nd place at the moment.

If you look at today's Nanos poll, the NDP is at only 29% and the Liberals are at 25% (with the Cons at 39%), so there is no guarantee that the NDP has the numbers to beat the Cons.

Stockholm

One thing we know for sure isw that the Liberal brand is TOXIC in francophone Quebec and TOXIC across most of western Canada. Face it, a party that is HATED in two thirds of the country will never again mount a credible challenge. The parrot is DEAD!

Debater

That is your opinion, Stockholm.

The Liberal brand is not toxic in Francophone Quebec, (it holds many ridings there provincially) but it does need to re-build there.  It had good numbers there until just a few years ago.  Remember, when Ignatieff first became leader, he was tied with and head of the BQ in the polls for a while.  A new Liberal leader can bring those numbers up again.

Parts of Western Canada definitely remain a problem, and that remains more difficult.  The Liberals are going to have to apologize for their previous misdeeds in that region.

You do realize that large sections of the country remain a wasteland for the NDP too, right?  The NDP couldn't even win a single seat in Eastern Ontario last week.

So you see the dilemma both parties are in?

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