A whole new game: the NPD (Quebec NDP) and its new MPs

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Wilf Day
A whole new game: the NPD (Quebec NDP) and its new MPs

Opening post.

Issues Pages: 
Regions: 
Wilf Day

The NDP takes the lead in Quebec.

Quote:
According to Yuri Rivest, vice president of CROP . . . With such results, the NDP could get their hands on ridings in Montreal, including Jeanne-Le Ber, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine and Westmount-Ville-Marie, says Rivest.
Quote:

And a number more in Metropolitan Montreal, where the NDP is at 40%. But among francophones in the whole province, it is at 34%. This means that, in the half of Quebec outside metro Montreal, it is at 28%, higher in the Outaouais, lower elsewhere. Not many new prospects outside metro Montreal that we don't already know about. But who may get elected in metro Montreal?

Wilf Day

With such a big Liberal swing to the NDP, the NDP sweeps English Montreal as well as a lot more, getting as many as 35 seats:

Outremont

Westmount--Ville-Marie 

Gatineau 

Hull--Aylmer

Lac-Saint-Louis

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine

Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel

Saint-Laurent--Cartierville 

Jeanne-Le Ber

LaSalle--Émard

Pierrefonds--Dollard

Bourassa

Laval--Les Îles

Mount Royal

Papineau?

Brossard--La Prairie

Ahuntsic

Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher

Alfred-Pellan

Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert 

Pontiac 

Laval

Châteauguay--Saint-Constant 

Drummond

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

Shefford?

Brome--Missisquoi?

Compton--Stanstead?

Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia?

Louis-Hébert?

Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine?

Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles?

Beauport--Limoilou?

Those last eight look unlikely. But instead we could very easily add:

Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie

Hochelaga

Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

Verchères--Les Patriotes

Laurentides--Labelle

Chambly--Borduas

Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel

Any comment?

Anonymouse

I think it is easier to guess which seats the NDP wouldn't win as opposed to the ones it would win with the current CROP poll numbers in Québec. PR is still needed.

samuelolivier

Based on democraticspace.com, electionprediction.org, projetdemocratie.com, the candidate effect in the riding and sometimes, regional polls, here is a list of the ridings the NDP can potentially win in Quebec:

SURE NPD WIN

1. Outremont
2. Gatineau

MOST LIKELY WILL BE NDP

3. Hull-Aylmer
4. Jeanne-Le-Ber

POTENTIAL NPD WIN

5. Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou (local poll indicated strong NDP votes, he was 3rd though but the poll might have underestimated the First nations/Cri votes
6. Westmount-Ville-Marie
7. Alfred-Pellan
8. Brossard
9. Notre-Dame-de-Grace
10. Ahuntsic
11. Drummond
12. St-Lambert
13. Laval
14. Lasalle-Emard
15. Beauport-Limoilou
16. Charlesbourg-Haute-St-Charles
17. Repentigny

AND IF THE WAVE IS AS BIG AS THOSE POLLS SAY (THESE ONES WOULD CAUSE A SURPRISE)

18. Compton-Stanstead
19. Shefford
20. Marc-Aurele Fortin
21. Jonquiere-Alma (local star candidate, but he has to beat an JP Blackburn...)
21. Chambly-Borduas
22. Portneuf (3 candidates race...)
23. Longueuil
24. Chateauguay-St-Constant
25. Abitibi-Baie-James
26. Quebec
27. St-Hyacinthe
28. Pontiac (the NDP is strong in the Gatineau region, although, I would be surprised if they could beat LCannon)
29. Rosemont (really strong NDP candidate competing against a really really strong BQ incumbent)
30. Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
31. Louis-Hebert
32. St-Bruno
33. Vercheres
34. Pierrefonds-Dollard
35. Laval-les-Iles
36. La-Pointe-de-L'Ile
37. Lac-St-Louis
38. Riviere-des-Milles-Iles
39. Brome-Missisquoi

As for the rest, at this stage with the polls that high, everything could happen for the NDP in Quebec ;)

NorthReport

Got a call tonite from a friend in Mount Royal who said she was voting NPD. Smile 

samuelolivier

Thanks for sharing. It's nice to look at other people NDP list of potential winning ridings. Our lists are kinda similar. Althought, there are some ridings you have on yours that I would be really surprised if the NDP wins them. Like I said, everything is possible at this point, but a few of this list are really unlikely. ;)

Wilf Day wrote:

So who are those candidates?

Westmount--Ville-Marie: Joanne Corbeil

Gatineau: Françoise Boivin

Hull--Aylmer: Nycole Turmel

Lac-Saint-Louis: Alain Ackad

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine: Isabelle Morin

Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel: Roberta Peressini

Saint-Laurent--Cartierville: Maria Florez

Jeanne-Le Ber: Tyrone Benskin

LaSalle--Émard: Hélène LeBlanc

Pierrefonds--Dollard: Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe

Bourassa: Julie Demers (Denis Coderre is one of the strongest if not the strongest liberal voice in Quebec. I don't think he is going anywhere)

Laval--Les Îles: François Pilon

Mount Royal: Jeff Itcush

Papineau? Marcos Tejada (IMO, this is still a LIB vs BQ, eventhough the polls are low for liberals in MTL. If someone can beat Justin Trudeau here, it's the BQ)

Brossard--La Prairie: Hoang Mai (one of our stars)

Ahuntsic: Chantal Reeves

Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher: Pierre Nantel

Alfred-Pellan: Rosane Doré Lefebvre

Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert: Djaouida Sellah

Pontiac: Mathieu Ravignat

Laval: Jose Nunez-Melo

Châteauguay--Saint-Constant: Sylvain Chicoine

Drummond: François Choquette

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: Alain Giguère

Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie: Alexandre Boulerice (one of our stars) (but against a big BQ star)

Hochelaga: Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet

Vaudreuil-Soulanges? Jamie Nicholls

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles? Laurin Liu

Verchères--Les Patriotes? Sana Hassainia

Laurentides--Labelle: Marc-André Morin

Chambly--Borduas? Matthew Dubé

Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel? Mylène Freeman

Anyone who recalls some of the accidental NDP MLAs in 1990 in Ontario will shiver ever so slightly. But many of them are going to have a remarkable impact,

 

 

Greg Morrow

We'll have to wait and see if the CROP and Ekos regionals are mirrored by the other pollsters -- the current polling avg for 9 QC polls ending Apr 15-20 (incl CROP and Ekos) are as follows:

BQ 32.5
NDP 24.4
LIB 20.4
CON 18.6
GRN 3.3

At these numbers, the NDP still only wins 2 seats (Outremont, Gatineau). But there are 9 ridings where the NDP are b/w 5-10 points behind:

Abitibi--Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Alfred-Pellan
Beauport--Limoilou
Brome--Missisquoi
Brossard-La Prairie
Laval
Louis-Hébert
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier
Westmount--Ville Marie

And 5 ridings are within 5 points:

Drummond
Hull--Aylmer
Jeanne--Le Ber
Pontiac
Saint-Lambert

Vansterdam Kid

Hi Greg, I was reading the description of your model on your website and I wasn't quite clear how you weight everything on it you say:

Quote:
Among our most popular features is our seat projections. Using recent regional polling data and historical trends, as well as on-the-ground reports from our regional correspondents, we make vote projections for every riding.

Fair enough, it seemed to be accurate for the 2008 federal election. But it didn't seem very accurate in some of the more volatile elections like Quebec 2007.

Have you done anything along the lines of what Nate Silver in the US tries to do in regards to do to predict election results. In particular steps 3 through 6. Granted, some of the differences with the US are obvious, but seeing as there isn't a whole lot of information on your website about methodology I'm not entirely clear on how you'd come up with your numbers as your description is less than informative (i.e. polling counts for X %, historical trends count for Y %, on the ground reports count for Z %, incumbency/demographics count for R %, etc, etc). Basically, I'm curious as to how things are weighted and whether or not individual riding polls if they're available are added into your weighting formula (and if they are - will it matter if they were conducted on behalf of a campaign or not).

KenS

Whatever comes next, this is interesting.

It's a very interesting development to emerge in any election, let alone in what has been so far looking like a reprise of the last snoozefest.

Leave it to Quebec.

Ciabatta2

I don't disagree that this is fun, but even if those numbers hold vote spltis and regional trends would likely mean only a couple of extra seats, at best.  So probably best to not get too excited. :)

JeffWells

Ciabatta2 wrote:

I don't disagree that this is fun, but even if those numbers hold vote spltis and regional trends would likely mean only a couple of extra seats, at best.  So probably best to not get too excited. :)

 

Ridiculous.  It's not May 2 so I know nothing is certain, but if these numbers hold - leading with 36% Quebec-wide and 40% in Montreal - then there will be revolutionary gains.

George Victor

And it will be good if the phenom does not "save" Conservative seats from the Bloc by splitting the social-democratic elements.

Sean in Ottawa

Don't worry about this -- the effect on the national will be to give enough momentum to turn enough seats out of Quebe in compensation.

 

The thing is the election is still far enough away and the Cons mostly control the airwaves-- so much can change.

I hope people will get perspective and work becaue all the other parties will see this and get to work

Caissa

So what appears to be driving these high numbers for the NPD in Quebec? Is jack simply considered superior to Iggy or is there more going on below the surface?

Wilf Day

Okay, this is nuts.

I just averaged the CROP poll and the EKOS poll together. But EKOS has the Bloc dropping even lower than CROP does. So the outcome on the UBC Forecaster is NPD 44, Bloc 17, Conservative 8, Liberal 5 (including Coderre and Dion).

And that's failing to take account of local candidates in Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou (which it gives the Bloc by a 0.1% margin) and Jonquière--Alma (which it calls a safe Conservative seat).

On the other hand, considering the NPD's concentration in metropolitan Montreal, winning Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine and Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia might seem even less plausible than some of the other seats. Although then again, who knows what consensus might develop when the young folks come home from Montreal for the Easter weekend?

But look what this does to the House of Commons? The rump of the Bloc still likely holds the balance of power. With Duceppe losing his seat, they are led by Pierre Paquette from Joliette, their best seat is Montcalm next door, and they are lucky if they hold even one seat on the island of Montreal. (The Forecaster gives them a 2% margin over the NPD in La Pointe-de-l'Île, likely to evaporate given the concentration in Montreal.)

This reminds me of 1979. The Creditistes, shrunken to six rural seats and petrified of another election, supported Joe Clark. (Until, in a fit of confusion, they astonished everyone by letting his government fall, dooming him and them, and giving us all a Charter of Rights and Freedoms. But I digress.)

So the Bloc lets Harper stay in power, leaving the real victors, Layton and Ignatieff, to fume at them?

Anonymouse

Forum Research has the BQ at 25, how does that change your projections Wilf? Sounds like the projection model is starting to fall apart.

 

NDP 34 BQ 25 Lib 18 CPC 16

 

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I suspect that voting NDP in Quebec will have the consequence of taking away BQ votes, with the NDP not necessarilly getting more seats other than the three projected (Mulcair's seat, Gatineau, and Aylmer) while at the same time the BQ will lose some seats due to vote splitting, and allowing the Libs or Cons or both to take advantage. Not a great picture. Looks like I'll be campaigning against the NDP this time.

Sean in Ottawa

People need to not count chickens early-- those are some fragile eggs

Sean in Ottawa

Boom Boom how high does the NDP have to be to consider they are the better alternative to beat the Cons or Liberals?

I'd be careful about approaching Quebec strategically-- political earthquakes in Quebec is how change happens-- if you want o know for sure -- don't vote in an advance poll and wait and see how it is going but if those numbers hold the BQ could be the vote splitter not the NDP depending on where you are.

Wilf Day

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Wilf Day

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Wilf Day

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Wilf Day

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Anonymouse

Yowza. Yet another poll confirming abysmal Liberal numbers. If we take the lowest numbers for the non-NDP parties, it looks like the Libs have lost half their support, the BQ more than a third, and the Conservatives about a quarter.

I'm disappointed in Boom Boom, against all evidence he is sticking with the sinking BQ ship, when it is clear there is only one party with momentum in Quebec and this is the only party that can probably displace the Conservatives because both compete for the same federalist votes. If on election day, the CPC elects MPs with the NDP in close second, my disappointment will turn to outrage.

bekayne

OK, here's what's puzzling me. The differences between the province wide polls & the local riding polls, especially ones done at the exact same time. For example, CROP puts out a poll showing the Liberals at 11%, 12% behind the Conservatives. A week later they do a poll in Lac-St-Louis showing the Liberals with a 20% lead on the Cons & a 34% lead on the NDP. Then their latest poll has the Liberals at 13% & the Election Forecaster spits out an NDP win for Lac-St-Louis (45.4%>25.5%). Then there's CROP's Quebec City polls which were conducted the SAME WEEK as last night's poll (UBC forecaster results based on the CROP poll in brackets)

Beauport-Limolou   Con 35 (28.4) BQ 32 (26.5) NDP 20 (34.1) Lib 11 (7.9)

Louis-Hebert      BQ 37 (29.4) Con 28 (21.7) Lib 17 (13.9) NDP 14 (33.9)

Portneuf    Ind 37 (32.2) BQ 32 (26.1) NDP 17 (26.9) Lib 9 (9.0)

And here's Leger's riding polls, also done at the same time

Abitibi Baie James   BQ  30 (32.3) Con 24 (23.4) NDP 22 (31.9) Lib 20 (10.9)

Abitibi Temiscamingue  BQ 45 (38.9) NDP 21 (32.9) Lib 16 (11.4) Con 15 (14.6)

Not to mention Leger's provincial poll of over 1000, conducted April 15-17 (CROP was done April 13-20)

BQ 34% (31% CROP), NDP 24% (36%), Lib 20% (13%) Con 20% (17%)

2 polls by Quebec's top 2 pollsters done the same week. 

bekayne

If you haven't heard EKOS Quebec numbers have changed from last night's poll:

NDP    31.4%

Bloc    27.2%

Con    18.4%

Lib     15.5%

Threads

The discrepancy between the results forecast by province-wide polls and the results indicated by riding-level polls (in the specific case where the two sets of polls are conducted by the same company) can be explained by looking at the algorithms that public election forecasters use, which are applied equally to all ridings in the region being forecast. It's entirely possible that there's a larger vote shift from the BQ to the NDP in ridings outside the three CROP polled than there is in those three ridings.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Now continued from here.

Wilf Day

I'll finish my projection from CROP/EKOS averaged. Then I'll go back and add Forum to the average.

Compton--Stanstead: Jean Rousseau

Québec: Annick Papillon (why haven't we heard more about her?)

Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques: Guy Caron (cabinet material)

Brome--Missisquoi: Pierre Jacob

Louis-Hébert: Denis Blanchette

Beauport--Limoilou: Raymond Côté

Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine? Philip Toone

Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia? Joannie Boulet

knownothing knownothing's picture
Lachine Scot

I agree with posters on this thread who are saying to take these numbers with a grain of salt.  However, I hope this will make "strategic voters" in Quebec and elsewhere SERIOUSLY reconsider voting for "Safe" Liberals or BQ in order to keep out tories.  It would be a shame for natural NDP voters to slow down the momentum of the party out of some misplaced "strategic" impulses. 

Anonymouse

Absolutely. Federalists supporting ultra-separatist, conservative BQ MPs like Gérard Asselin over progressive, innovative, First Nation success stories like Jonathan Genest-Jourdain would make no sense.

bekayne

Wilf Day wrote:

Sherbrooke: Pierre-Luc Dusseault (a university student)

New poll today, Bloc 59%, NDP 15%

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OfQ6W7U-Uyw/TbB3hRqdbmI/AAAAAAAAE3Q/xM60xzEGfKw/s1600/Riding+Poll.PNG

Anonymouse

There is clearly a disconnect between the local riding polls and the Québec-wide numbers but frankly, this is probably a good thing. It means the NDP support may be starting to cluster, which means fewer seats lost by the NDP by 3% of the vote.

Also, the methodology and way the questions are asked on these polls is really important. For one, if the pollster uses typical phone polling, they are likely to miss out on the NDP surge among youth, lower income voters, and FNs. If the pollster uses previous turnout statistics to weight their samples, they may drastically underestimate NDP support. Furthermore, if the pollster prompts for the name of the candidate, a massive gap between the name recognition for the incumbent and the NDP upstart may bias the response. Even if there is no bias in the response from name-prompting, this implies that the stronger NDP candidates are soaking up more of the NDP's province-wide support and thus the party would be electing its stronger candidates while the weaker ones finish second or lower (smart voters!).

It may be that the NDP is not at 36% or 31% or whatever provincially. But there are three polls now putting the NDP well in front. The chance that three unbiased polls would all be wrong (given a MOE correct 19/20 times) is 1.25/10,000

Wilf Day

Adding the Forum results (34 NPD, 25 Bloc, 18 Lib, 16 Con, 4 Green) into my average, it keeps getting better, since that pulls the NPD up and the Bloc down.

I get NPD 53, Bloc 7, Con 8, Lib 6.

Now the NDP has MPs from:

Montcalm: Manon Perreault (nice, a former municipal councillor) 

Rivière-du-Nord: Pierre Dionne Labelle (looks well-grounded) 

La Pointe-de-l'Île: Ève Peclet (?)

Beauharnois--Salaberry: Anne Minh Thu Quach

Saint-Jean: Tarik Brahmi

Abitibi--Témiscamingue: Christine Moore

Berthier--Maskinongé? Ruth Ellen Brosseau (who lives in, umm, Hull)

Trois-Rivières: Robert Aubin

Saint-Maurice--Champlain: Lise St-Denis (?)

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou: Romeo Saganash

(But not from a few seats listed earlier)

Basement Dweller

After looking over the names, the potential NDP MPS are mostly female. Especially the top ten most likely. Just interesting to note.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Been looking at polls and comments all day today - if the NDP surge continues right up to May 2nd, we could very well be looking at Prime Minister Jack Layton. Holy cow!!!! Laughing

janfromthebruce

Yes we can Boom Boom Kiss

 

Boom Boom wrote:

Been looking at polls and comments all day today - if the NDP surge continues right up to May 2nd, we could very well be looking at Prime Minister Jack Layton. Holy cow!!!! Laughing

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

NorthReport

 I agree.

 

Politics is a lot more fun now. Laughing

 

 

New polls may push even more Quebecers toward Layton camp

While new polls will confirm, contradict or mitigate the NDP's sudden surge, there's another thing Duceppe must be worried about: that the numbers that came out this week, as much as they might be overestimating NDP support, could end up influencing still more Quebecers to give Jack Layton a try.

 http://www.montrealgazette.com/Jos%C3%A9e+Legault+polls+push+even+more+Q...

Wilf Day

Okay, we now have the new Ipsos also showing the NPD first. That's four polls to average together and pop into the forecaster.

NPD 42, Bloc 14, Con 9, Lib 9.

That includes Duceppe losing to the NPD which I hope he doesn't, and Justin Trudeau losing narrowly to the NPD which seems not too likely. It also includes the NPD narrowly winning Terrebonne--Blainville with token candidate Charmaine Borg, co-president of the McGill NDP, and winning Chambly-Borduas with her co-president Matthew Dubé, which both seem improbable. Also student Pierre-Luc Dusseault narrowly winning Sherbrooke. Also McGill student (and Project Montreal borough council candidate in Outremont) Mylène Freeman being a successful parachute candidate in Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel. Also McGill student Laurin Liu in Rivière-des-Mille-Îles. Also Hull pub manager Ruth Ellen Brosseau parachuted at the last minute into Berthier--Maskinongé. Also unknown Joannie Boulet in Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia.

Deducting those nine, we get the more plausible:

NPD 33, Bloc 22, Con 9, Lib 10.

And hopefully add a few more like Romeo Saganash.

If we can add 37 MPs from the rest of Canada, the NDP caucus of 70 may or may not be the Official Opposition, but it is certainly unlike any NDP caucus ever seen.

Now, if the rest of Canada gets on the bandwagon -- vote strategically, vote NDP -- who knows? 

Anonymouse

Catchfire asked that QC news be moved to this thread and we oblige:

Mulcair stumping in Saint-Hippolyte 

NDP candidate Dany Morin talks about pocketbook issues in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

Nycole Turmel, NDP candidate in Hull-Aylmer in the news

On political TV in QC, it is all NDP all the time. Interesting stuff. E.g. "I am 71 years old and this is the first time I am going to vote in a federal election and I am going to vote for Jack Layton." Jean-Guy Couture

 

Anonymouse

Veteran CTV political analyst Craig Oliver calls NDP 1st place finish in QC, worst possible news for Harper and Jane Taber makes a fool of herself.

Craig Oliver says we may be looking at an NDP-led NDP/Liberal coalition.

Life, the unive...

So I guess it is time for Liberals to put their money where there mouth has been all these years and start promoting a strategic vote for the NDP

bekayne

Anonymouse wrote:

Craig Oliver says we may be looking at an NDP-led NDP/Liberal coalition.

Won't be enough seats between them, Liberals will probably lose too many to the Conservatives

 

Rob8305

This is just beyond extraordinary news. Watching the National At Issue Panel was the first I heard of the NDP first place surge in Quebec. My jaw literally dropped and I like almost got high on the news. This is a REVOLUTIONARY development on so many levels and may mean the end of Harper and the separatists. WOW! Jack Layon, thank you for (if this knock on wood holds potentially) saving Canada. You are legendary.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Yes the Liberals will have to vote NDP to avoid Conservatives in their ridings. NDP voters have voted Liberal for many elections and now it is time to return the favour.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Can Ignatieff save it with his appearance on "toul le monde en parle"?

knownothing knownothing's picture

I heard that show is hard on its guests. I wonder if they will savage Ignatieff.

Anonymouse
Left Turn Left Turn's picture

I think a large part of the abysmally low numbers for the Liberals in Quebec is carry over from what I understand is the massive unpopularity of Jean Charest's Quebec Liberals. That in turn is atributable not only to Charest's neo-liberal policies, but also the strength of the social movements in Quebec, which are much stronger than in the ROC.

The left in the ROC would be well advised to start paying a LOT more attention to Quebec.

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