A whole new game: the NPD (Quebec NDP) and its new MPs

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nicky

Does anyone have the linguistic and regional crosstabs for the most recent Crop poll?

DaveW

boy, NDG = NDP???

so many false dawns (1965 etc.), but that would really be something Cool

Ciabatta2

JeffWells wrote:

Ridiculous.  It's not May 2 so I know nothing is certain, but if these numbers hold - leading with 36% Quebec-wide and 40% in Montreal - then there will be revolutionary gains.

Maybe, but FPTP leaves nothing for certain and can certainly lead to significant disappointment, regardless of the overall vote results.

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Can Ignatieff save it with his appearance on "toul le monde en parle"?

I can't help but wonder if the media is setting us up for a 'roaring once-in-a-lifetime historic Liberal comeback' narrative over the next week in an attempt to promote a Liberal resurgence for May 2.

They'd love that storyline - Layton peaks but Ignatieff roars back with last-week momentum.

Anonymouse

Ignatieff's Easter resurrection?

Unionist

Ciabatta2 wrote:

I can't help but wonder if the media is setting us up for a 'roaring once-in-a-lifetime historic Liberal comeback' narrative over the next week in an attempt to promote a Liberal resurgence for May 2.

You mean, like a comeback starting Easter Monday?

That means we have our work cut out for us today (um Friday) ...

 

Unionist

You pretty well nailed it, Anonymouse!

 

adma

Yeah, so Iggy getting cought by a little electoral hocus pocus

Anonymouse

Francois Choquette, NDP candidate in Drummond, continues to rack up back to back media articles, this time about seniors issues

Robin Aubin, NDP candidate in Trois-Rivieres, rides the wave. Mulcair was present at his nomination a while back.

Christelle Bogosta, BQ MP, insists she doesn't regret having left the NDP to run with the BQ a few months ago: "I am happy with the BQ." Thank goodness the media hasn't asked the same question of Jean-Claude Rochelau, NDP star candidate in Hochelaga, who just a few months ago switched to the BQ only to lose the Point de L'Île nomination. As vice-president for NDP-Québec section, Rochelau is partly responsible for the success the NPD is enjoying right now, but won't be riding the NDP 40% in Montréal wave to a seat in the House of Commons if it happens.

Wilf Day

So this projection gives the NPD some more accidental MPs:

Laurier--Sainte-Marie: Hélène Laverdière

Repentigny: Jean-François Larose

Saint-Lambert: Sadia Groguhé who looks like a star.

Terrebonne--Blainville? Charmaine Borg (McGilll student, Secretary of the Young New Democrats of Quebec)

Sherbrooke: Pierre-Luc Dusseault (a university student)

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot: Marie-Claude Morin (another university student)

Shefford: Réjean Genest

Honoré-Mercier: Paulina Ayala (a leader in the Chilean student movement and in citizens' rights organizations under the Pinochet dictatorship)

(More to come) 

Wilf Day

So who are those candidates?

Westmount--Ville-Marie: Joanne Corbeil

Gatineau: Françoise Boivin

Hull--Aylmer: Nycole Turmel

Lac-Saint-Louis: Alain Ackad

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine: Isabelle Morin

Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel: Roberta Peressini

Saint-Laurent--Cartierville: Maria Florez

Jeanne-Le Ber: Tyrone Benskin

LaSalle--Émard: Hélène LeBlanc

Pierrefonds--Dollard: Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe

Bourassa: Julie Demers

Laval--Les Îles: François Pilon

Mount Royal: Jeff Itcush

Papineau? Marcos Tejada

Brossard--La Prairie: Hoang Mai (one of our stars)

Ahuntsic: Chantal Reeves

Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher: Pierre Nantel (this was a nomination worth fighting for almost a year ago, when he defeated another star Djaouida Sellah who then ran in Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert)

Alfred-Pellan: Rosane Doré Lefebvre

Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert: Djaouida Sellah (A doctor from Algeria, president of the Association of Quebec Doctors Graduated outside Canada and the U.S.; and also co-president of the Quebec NDP Women's Committee)

Pontiac: Mathieu Ravignat

Laval: Jose Nunez-Melo

Châteauguay--Saint-Constant: Sylvain Chicoine

Drummond: François Choquette

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: Alain Giguère

Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie: Alexandre Boulerice (one of our stars)

Hochelaga: Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet

Vaudreuil-Soulanges? Jamie Nicholls

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles? Laurin Liu (Vice-President of Internet Communications, Young New Democrats of Quebec)

Verchères--Les Patriotes? Sana Hassainia

Laurentides--Labelle: Marc-André Morin

Chambly--Borduas? Matthew Dubé

Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel? Mylène Freeman

Anyone who recalls some of the accidental NDP MLAs in 1990 in Ontario will shiver ever so slightly. But many of them are going to have a remarkable impact. 

Anonymouse

In editorials, after days of scornful editorials Jean-Jacques Samson sits down with Mulcair and comes around considerably on the NDP.

Editorial cartoon running in the Journal de Québec chain of papers. Translation: NDP leads. Duceppe downplays the polls.

Duceppe is visiting Val D'Or and Jack Layton goes to church 

How many times has Gilles Duceppe gone to Val D'Or already?

NDP Quebec region candidates are feeling the momentum.

Gilles Duceppe fails to impress at Le Soleil's editorial board

This pro-NDP editorial in Le Soleil reports that the last CROP poll had the NDP at 45% among anglophones compared to 34% among francophones. With those numbers, the NDP would win every Liberal seat in Québec. Seems suspect.

François St-Gelais opines that despite the star power of Claude Patry no seats will change hands in the Saguenay region.

 

Wilf Day

What would it take for an NDP majority government? Just ask the UBC seat forecaster. Did you know it has a line for non-voters turning out?

So lets have 8% of non-voters -- that's only a 3.3% jump in turnout, very achievable -- vote NDP.

Then we'll look at the reent trend in Quebec and imagine what could happen across Canada. Have one-third of Liberals switch to the NDP, along with 1% of Conservatives, half the Greens, and 30% of Bloc voters.

Result: 158 NDP, 142 Conservative, 4 Liberals, 2 Bloc, 2 Independents.

Lets give the Liberals a break -- 74% Liberal, 26% switch -- but put turnout up by 5%. Result: 157 NDP, 138 Conservative, 11 Liberal, 1 Bloc, 1 Independent. (David McGuinty, Carolyn Bennett and Stephane Dion can duke it out for House Leader.)

Now, what happens in Quebec? The NDP has 61 seats, Conservatives 10, Liberals 3, Bloc 1 (Sadly, it's the old Tory Louis Plamondon elected in 1984, dean of the House).

What nine Quebec NDP MPs are in cabinet?

Thomas Mulcair

Françoise Boivin

Alexandre Boulerice 

Nycole Turmel

Tyrone Benskin

Hoang Mai

Raymond Côté 

Guy Caron  

Romeo Saganash 

(Hmm, need more women. Who? Not Anne-Marie Day; her riding is one of the ten Conservative wins.)  

NDPMajority

Is Duceppe's support for dollarization a viable avenue for the NDP to attack the BQ? Or is it something too fringe and haughty?

I could see it working to put nails in the BQ coffin. Juxtapose statements of Duceppe opposing an intercontinental ballistic missile shield and opposing Canadian involvement in Iraq with statements supporting our adopting the U.S. dollar and frame it in terms of sovereignty.

 

Why would anyone here want the NDP candidate to lose to some faux-left smoothtalker who wants us to hand over control of our fiscal policy to the Americans?

Anonymouse

Lesson in how to maintain momentum: Yvon Godin rocks in the Radio Canada debate on the economy. Everyone attacked him. Liberals send Marc Garneau (what planet are they on? his French is not francophone).

Radio Canada is ALL about the NDP right now, good and bad. This next week is going to be a rush.

Anonymouse

Hébert changes her tune. Now Layton was the uneven (tie) winner of the French debates after before she had said he exceeded expectations but Harper was on track for his majority. Expect more creative historical revisionism in the coming week. The polls have caught the English language media with their pants down.

Anonymouse

Articles about an NDP official opposition have made their translation into French. Mo' momentum.

Anonymouse

Shocker: Pauline Marois supports the Bloc Québecois and thinks a vote for Layton is a vote for the Conservatives

BQ is pulling out all the stops when their provincial politicians are forced to wade into "federal jurisdiction"

This also seems to signal that Duceppe is done. If he has to call on Marois to save his hide, his political ambitions (on the provincial scene) are very likely over.

Anonymouse

NDP prepares to gamble on a big rally in Duceppe's riding. Duceppe will be in the Montréal region but will circle but not enter the riding.

Radio Canada has a great video report on the David and Goliath mismatches between the NDP and BQ Montréal electoral machines. One thing the report doesn't mention is that while the NDP are badly outnumbered it looks like they are fairly well trained. Fight, néo-democrates fight!

ETA: For those that don't know Spanish, the Hispanic callers in the video are calling NDP supporters to tell them about the one o'clock rally in Laurier Sainte-Marie.

NorthReport

Time is 1 PM Saturday April 23

What is the actual address of the NPD rally Saturday in Montreal

Anonymouse

 

NDP momentum rally in Montreal

Watch it live online:

Date:
Saturday, April 23rd

Time:
10:30am PDT

 
11:30am MDT

 
12:30pm CDT

 
1:30pm EDT

 
2:30 ADT/3:00pm NDT

If you’re in the Montreal area, be there in person:

Time:
1:00pm - 2:30pm

Location:
Olympia – 1004 Sainte-Catherine E, Montreal, QC

ETA: Almost 500 confirmed guests on facebook

CanadianAlien

I would be perfectly happy if this NDP surge pans out. Prime Minister Layton is absolutely something I could feel good about.

=-------

Yes the Liberals will have to vote NDP to avoid Conservatives in their ridings. NDP voters have voted Liberal for many elections and now it is time to return the favour.

------
Maybe, but FPTP leaves nothing for certain and can certainly lead to significant disappointment, regardless of the overall vote results.

-----

Sage words from other posts.

But I just want Harper out and out of our lives.

So I appeal to people in closely held ridings to make sure that the Conservative candidate does not win. If you cannot tell, please do some research, if that still doesn't help, then vote your preference.

Bottom line is that Harper is toxic to our democracy. He is playing a strategically long game and has already made fundamental changes to what Canadians have so carefully built up, and what has been a subtle, but powerful and inspirational vision for the rest of the world.

 

NorthReport
samuelolivier

If the NDP was winning this election and be forming a minority government, which MPs from Quebec could be minister?

Thomas Mulcair - Outremont (montreal)
Françoise Boivin - Gatineau (outaouais)
Nycole Turmel - Hull-Aylmer (outaouais)
Alexandre Boulerice - Rosemont (montreal)
Romeo Saganash - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou (northern quebec)
Raymond Côté - Beauport-Limoilou (Quebec city)
Guy Caron - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques (Bas-Saint-Laurent)
Claude Patry - Jonquière-Alma (Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean)

and maybe...
Sadia Groguhé - Saint-Lambert (Montreal South Shore)
Jeff Itcush - Mount Royal (Montreal)
Hélène LeBlanc - LaSalle-Émard (Montreal)
Tyrone Benskin - Jeanne-Le Ber (Montreal - although his poor French wouldn't help)
Anne-Marie Day - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles (Quebec city)

Looking at this potential cabinet, it looks stronger than the actual Harper cabinet in Quebec.

kreed

Given the new NDP surge here in Quebec, vote swapping has become a reality. I have managed to trade my vote (I live in a die hard Bloc riding) for an NDP vote in Charlesbourg!

Wilf Day

samuelolivier wrote:

If the NDP was winning this election and be forming a minority government, which MPs from Quebec could be minister?

Thomas Mulcair - Outremont (montreal)
Françoise Boivin - Gatineau (outaouais)
Nycole Turmel - Hull-Aylmer (outaouais)
Alexandre Boulerice - Rosemont (montreal)
Romeo Saganash - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou (northern quebec)
Raymond Côté - Beauport-Limoilou (Quebec city)
Guy Caron - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques (Bas-Saint-Laurent)
Claude Patry - Jonquière-Alma (Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean)

and maybe...
Sadia Groguhé - Saint-Lambert (Montreal South Shore)
Jeff Itcush - Mount Royal (Montreal)
Hélène LeBlanc - LaSalle-Émard (Montreal)
Tyrone Benskin - Jeanne-Le Ber (Montreal - although his poor French wouldn't help)
Anne-Marie Day - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles (Quebec city)

Looking at this potential cabinet, it looks stronger than the actual Harper cabinet in Quebec.

You left out Hoang Mai . And we don't have enough star women? Otherwise, good list. But another "maybe" is François Choquette, who looks pretty decent (M.A.) and might be the only NPD MP elected from the whole Estrie-Centre-du-Québec-Mauricie.

samuelolivier

Wilf Day wrote:

samuelolivier wrote:

If the NDP was winning this election and be forming a minority government, which MPs from Quebec could be minister?

Thomas Mulcair - Outremont (montreal)
Françoise Boivin - Gatineau (outaouais)
Nycole Turmel - Hull-Aylmer (outaouais)
Alexandre Boulerice - Rosemont (montreal)
Romeo Saganash - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou (northern quebec)
Raymond Côté - Beauport-Limoilou (Quebec city)
Guy Caron - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques (Bas-Saint-Laurent)
Claude Patry - Jonquière-Alma (Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean)

and maybe...
Sadia Groguhé - Saint-Lambert (Montreal South Shore)
Jeff Itcush - Mount Royal (Montreal)
Hélène LeBlanc - LaSalle-Émard (Montreal)
Tyrone Benskin - Jeanne-Le Ber (Montreal - although his poor French wouldn't help)
Anne-Marie Day - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles (Quebec city)

Looking at this potential cabinet, it looks stronger than the actual Harper cabinet in Quebec.

You left out Hoang Mai . And we don't have enough star women? Otherwise, good list. But another "maybe" is François Choquette, who looks pretty decent (M.A.) and might be the only NPD MP elected from the whole Estrie-Centre-du-Québec-Mauricie.

True. I forgot Haong Mai. I've meet him today and the rally and he is a pretty decent guy. His background could help him become a minister. I could see him starting with a small minister (I.e. Minister of state - youth OR sports) as for francois choquette, he would be a minister just based on the regional representation. He doesn't have a real minister background. So maybe something like Minister of tourism (the guy was involved in theater troups and touristic/festival promotion in his region.

I made a whole Layton cabinet this afternoon, trying to get the strongest member. I know it's insane, but I've been dreaming of an NDP government for so long now. And honestly, if Layton is forming a minority government, Guy Caron from Rimouski is a must (a decent and credible minister of Industry). My only problem was to find a strong and credible Minister of Finances. I put Thomas Mulcair but I think he would be a much stronger Ministre des affaires internationales. Is there any economist running for the NDP or someone with a really strong and credible background for this?

autoworker autoworker's picture

Am I to understand that the "NPD (Quebec NDP)" is more than simply the French language abbreviation of the New Democratic Party of Canada?  Moreover, will they be running against the PQ and Quebec Solidaire in the next Quebec election?

Wilf Day

autoworker wrote:
Am I to understand that the "NPD (Quebec NDP)" is more than simply the French language abbreviation of the New Democratic Party of Canada?

I actually meant the Quebec Section of the party, but I used the French initials out of respect and to remind the reader that this is how it is referred to in French; it's a good thing to remember when looking for news stories in Google News. Yes, the Quebec Section has its own executive, like any provincial section, and this thread is just about Quebec.

autoworker wrote:
Moreover, will they be running against the PQ and Quebec Solidaire in the next Quebec election?

No. The Quebec Section operates on the federal level only.

autoworker autoworker's picture

@ Wilf Day: Thank you for the clarification regarding the 'Quebec NDP'.  To my knowledge, there is no provincial NPD/NDP in Quebec.

Wilf Day

I expect my old friend Phil Authier is getting ready to write about "the accidental New Democrats" if the NDP elects unexpected candidates. I often refer to his piece "Call them accidental Tories:"

Quote:
"I had a terrific team," Boucher, the new MP of Beauport-Limoilou, said when her win over Bloc MP Christian Simard was confirmed shortly after midnight.

"It consisted of my two daughters and a family friend."

But when you look at the 15 cabinet propects named in this thread -- and I expect we've missed a couple of able women -- the NPD has nothing to be ashamed of.

Unionist

Wilf Day wrote:

No. The Quebec Section operates on the federal level only.

That's true today. There was a provincial party which ran candidates in the 70s, then disbanded (I think), then was revived in the late 80s, then got turfed by the federal party. It ended up, through some twists and turns which I don't recall offhand, as an affiliate of the UFP, which was one of the founding affiliates of Québec solidaire.

Politics here is "interesting"...

Unionist

samuelolivier wrote:
My only problem was to find a strong and credible Minister of Finances. I put Thomas Mulcair but I think he would be a much stronger Ministre des affaires internationales.

God forbid. Although I do love my MP dearly, he is one of the most rabid pro-Israel propagandists in the party - cf. his uncontrolled rage against Libby Davies last year. Any other portfolio will do, thank you very much.

Quote:
Is there any economist running for the NDP or someone with a really strong and credible background for this?

Where is Paul Summerville when we may finally need his unparalleled experience?

[NOTE: "Unparalleled" means getting one's lines crossed all the time.]

Anonymouse

The NDP has a few economists (like Guy Caron) in the race. One of them is in a three-way race in Saint John. He is an econ professor from UNB-SJ and former prez of the Atlantic Canada Economics Association.

bekayne

Unionist wrote:

That's true today. There was a provincial party which ran candidates in the 70s, then disbanded (I think), then was revived in the late 80s, then got turfed by the federal party. 

After Paul Rose was nominated as a candidate in the early 1990s

samuelolivier

Anonymouse wrote:

The NDP has a few economists (like Guy Caron) in the race. One of them is in a three-way race in Saint John. He is an econ professor from UNB-SJ and former prez of the Atlantic Canada Economics Association.

Thank you! I didn't know St-John is a three-way race.

Anonymouse

samuelolivier wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

The NDP has a few economists (like Guy Caron) in the race. One of them is in a three-way race in Saint John. He is an econ professor from UNB-SJ and former prez of the Atlantic Canada Economics Association.

Thank you! I didn't know St-John is a three-way race.

Here is a profile on the Saint John race. All three candidates are strong. In the 2010 provincial election the Liberal vote in Saint John collapsed to the Conservatives and NDP. The NDP was runner-up in two of the roughly four ridings that compose Saint John. It is traditional stronghold of the provincial party and used to be represented by Elizabeth Weir. Rob Moir is the strongest candidate the NDP has run in Saint John in recent memory and the party is running a vigorous local campaign. The Conservative incumbent spent the last week defending himself against critiques from Moir in the media.

takeitslowly

we need to have huge stadium obama change rallies if we want to have Jack as PM...jack should host a huge CHANGE rally in BC

 

Ontario is a lost cause, forget us, we are lame.

Anonymouse

Jean-Jacques Samson seems to be pulling for Roméo Saganash in Abitibi-Baie James. Roméo Saganash seems to have made a big splash in the Québec media as his name keeps coming up in relation to the NPD.

The NDP firestorm set off by Layton's visit to the Québec region still shows no signs of settling down. It seems like the media likes the NDP's chances best in the Conservative held ridings of Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles and Beauport-Limolou.

LaPresse has also been pulling to pieces some of the Liberal attacks on Jack Layton.

Anonymouse

Montréal rally - English

Montréal rally - French (Check out 3:06, Layton says something and the crowd explodes, a similar thing happens in the English clip at 1:26)

ETA: Chantal Hébert calls Jack's performance at the Montréal rally "pitch perfect."

Anonymouse

Media is now saying close to 2000 people at the Montréal NDP rally. Lol.

Anonymouse
Anonymouse

It's pretty clear what the people of Québec want from the NDP, they want Jack to become Prime Minister. It is the line that gets the biggest response at his Québec rallies and its backed up in the polls where more than twice the number of people that think Ignatieff and Harper would be the best PM, pick Layton for Prime Minister.

I think this is the reason for the "big change" in Québec. They want a voice in picking the Prime Minister and their preference, whether they are sovereigntist or not, is Layton.

gyor

takeitslowly wrote:

we need to have huge stadium obama change rallies if we want to have Jack as PM...jack should host a huge CHANGE rally in BC

 

Ontario is a lost cause, forget us, we are lame.

Not all of Ontario. The north appears to be going ndp and word is maybe the southwest too. Hamilton will most likely stay NDP and we may even pick up some seats in TO. It mostly just the GTA with few exceptions for and against and maybe most of Ottawa. This is the heart and soul of todays Liberal Party and just as sticking a wooden stake through the heart of a vampire turns it to dust, the NDP beating the liberals in the GTA would finish the Liberals off. Still most certainly go do a rally in BC, it'll help tempt Ontario as a bonus.

Anonymouse

Don't kid yourself gyor. The Liberal Party has won 75% or more of the elections since Confederation. They might do badly in this election but they will be back.

gyor

Anonymouse wrote:

Don't kid yourself gyor. The Liberal Party has won 75% or more of the elections since Confederation. They might do badly in this election but they will be back.

I just meant for this election. Weather the libs came back or not is up to Canadians.

Aristotleded24

Additionally, in Northern Ontario, the threat to incumbent NDP MPs, to the extent that there is one, is coming from the Conservatives, not the Liberals.

NDPMajority

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-day31.html?re...

Duceppe deploys Parizeau.

Why that idiot? How will deploying the Grand Dragon of the Quebec Klux Klan convince social democrats to abandon the BQ for the NDP anymore than running P.W. Botha acolyte Rob Anders convinces minorities to vote Tory? Is Jack paying Duceppe to lose this election ? :P

 

bekayne

NDPMajority wrote:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-day31.html?re...

Duceppe deploys Parizeau.

Why that idiot? How will deploying the Grand Dragon of the Quebec Klux Klan

That's way over the top

gyor

bekayne wrote:

NDPMajority wrote:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-day31.html?re...

Duceppe deploys Parizeau.

Why that idiot? How will deploying the Grand Dragon of the Quebec Klux Klan

That's way over the top

Parizeau or the comment?

Still I do not believe that this will get Gilles votes. Parizeau is an emmbarrassment to the Bloc.

NDPMajority

bekayne wrote:

NDPMajority wrote:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-day31.html?re...

Duceppe deploys Parizeau.

Why that idiot? How will deploying the Grand Dragon of the Quebec Klux Klan

That's way over the top

The Bloc Quebecois is pissing away years of hard work (much of it successful) in becoming one of the most diverse political movements in Canada. How can I not point and laugh at their political incompetence?

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