Yet another Polling Thread

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ocsi
Yet another Polling Thread

The latest EKOS poll shows virtually no change from a year ago:

 

Debater

The numbers are certainly very similiar, although the NDP number is a point or two lower.

It also shows that Harper is beginning to poll in minority government territory again.

janfromthebruce

the numbers are within the margin of error thus no difference from the year before.

Stockholm

The latest Ekos is out:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full-report-november-12.pdf

Tories down another point 36.6%, Libs unchanged at 26.6% and NDp up half a point at 16.8%. Of course they also have the Green party at a fictitious 11.2% nationally - but after their average 3% in the four byelections this week - we know for a fact that this is just an inflated function of flawed polling methodology. Once we cut them down to 5%, I suspect that the actual numbers are more like Tories 38%, Libs 28%, NDP 18.5% or thereabout.

ottawaobserver

I posted that poll in what I thought was the current thread, and came to the exact same conclusion.

I think the latest pile-on against the Liberals will take a few weeks to work its way through the national numbers, as well.

bekayne

ottawaobserver wrote:

I think the latest pile-on against the Liberals will take a few weeks to work its way through the national numbers, as well.

Did the last one ever stop?

janfromthebruce

Actually Stock I wouldn't give the Green vote to the cons at all - they are well known as being anti-environment. Considering that the libs are falling and in various polls when they ask who they trust most on the environment, and the NDP is always way ahead on that question, one might be more prone to give the NDP the lion share of that Green vote. That would be that the NDP is actually polling in the early 20s.

bekayne

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually Stock I wouldn't give the Green vote to the cons at all - they are well known as being anti-environment. Considering that the libs are falling and in various polls when they ask who they trust most on the environment, and the NDP is always way ahead on that question, one might be more prone to give the NDP the lion share of that Green vote. That would be that the NDP is actually polling in the early 20s.

I think it's more that these potential Green voters don't show up at the polls rather than switch their votes. As a result, you bump the other parties up in the same proportion.

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

The latest Ekos is out:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full-report-november-12.pdf

Tories down another point 36.6%, Libs unchanged at 26.6% and NDp up half a point at 16.8%. Of course they also have the Green party at a fictitious 11.2% nationally - but after their average 3% in the four byelections this week - we know for a fact that this is just an inflated function of flawed polling methodology. Once we cut them down to 5%, I suspect that the actual numbers are more like Tories 38%, Libs 28%, NDP 18.5% or thereabout.

Looks like the Conservatives have peaked and are beginning to decline away from majority territory and back into minority level.

That appears to be the main trend this month.

ottawaobserver

I thought the research said that the Green vote *came* from other parties, but when it broke away, it broke 50% or more TO the NDP.  In fairness, though, I now forget where I read that at the time, but it was either during or just after the last election.

KenS

My memory about that shifting Green support is that its NDP first, but Liberals not far behind, and Cons in very distant third.

That could mean around 50% for the NDP, but I think just stating like that tends to be misleading.

That said, pure anecdotal observation tells me that this varies HUGELY from riding to riding- more than the variability the other parties get. For example, there are lots of Conservative ridings or where the Cons are strong where the GPC seems to be able to poach a lot of those votes... and not only where the Cons are virtually guaranteed the seat [like Alberta]. The GPC also seems to generally do very poorly in NDP or NDP contending seats [notable exception of Ottawa Centre]. Conversely, it does very well, occasionaly ahead of the NDP, in places like suburban 905 where the NDP is not remotely in contention. And I have a personal hunch that the GPC is more able to get or keep soft Liberal votes even where it is just as apparent as in the comparable 'NDP seats' that the Liberal MP/candidate needs those votes to win.

KenS

Follow-up suggestion:

That a very high proportion of the NDP/Green shifting is situated in ridings where the NDP has remote prospects of contending. While the Liberal/Green shifting is more spread across the board.

Debater

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually Stock I wouldn't give the Green vote to the cons at all - they are well known as being anti-environment. Considering that the libs are falling and in various polls when they ask who they trust most on the environment, and the NDP is always way ahead on that question, one might be more prone to give the NDP the lion share of that Green vote. That would be that the NDP is actually polling in the early 20s.

Let's be realistic here - the NDP is not likely to be polling in the 20's.

It may be the case though that a plurality of the Green vote will indeed go NDP, although Green voters are made up of people from across the political spectrum - NDP, Liberal AND Conservative.  Remember that in the last Ontario election, most of the increase in the Green vote was actually from unhappy PC supporters who didn't want to vote for Tory, McGuinty or Hampton.

adma

KenS wrote:
The GPC also seems to generally do very poorly in NDP or NDP contending seats [notable exception of Ottawa Centre].

The Toronto seats are also a notable exception--generally speaking, the poaching is more likely in the "urban champagne socialist" types of seats than the blue collar/resource economy types of seats.  (Though not Outremont, which is a special case.)

ottawaobserver

The Green vote is also declining in Ottawa Centre as Paul Dewar becomes more entrenched as our incumbent M.P.

ottawaobserver

Debater wrote:

Let's be realistic here - the NDP is not likely to be polling in the 20's.

Well, while we're being realistic here ... let's be honest that the last time you said something about how we should all be realistic, it was that Ignatieff could never fall below Dion in Quebec.  If only wishing made it so, eh, Debater.

melovesproles

I noticed that too.

KenS

KenS wrote:
The GPC also seems to generally do very poorly in NDP or NDP contending seats [notable exception of Ottawa Centre].

adma wrote:
The Toronto seats are also a notable exception--generally speaking, the poaching is more likely in the "urban champagne socialist" types of seats than the blue collar/resource economy types of seats.  (Though not Outremont, which is a special case.)

Plus the comment that as Dewar gets entrenched in Ottawa Centre, the GPC vote has declined.

That said, I think adma's comment characterizes this exception of a small number of seats where the GPC vote is more insulated against the effect of the NDP being contendors.

That is, if my bootstrap observation is correct that the high number of voters who go from the NDP to the GPC is very concentrated in ridings where the NDP is not a contendor. As to, comparatively speaking, going from the Liberals to the GPC even if the Liberals are contendors.

adma

KenS wrote:
That is, if my bootstrap observation is correct that the high number of voters who go from the NDP to the GPC is very concentrated in ridings where the NDP is not a contendor. As to, comparatively speaking, going from the Liberals to the GPC even if the Liberals are contendors.

 

cf. Edmonton vs Calgary.

KenS

Didn't understand that

Are we talking politics, or hockey, or both?

Laughing

Do more people abandon the GPC in Edmonton?

jrootham

Given that a political nickname for Edmonton is Redmonton, I'd say yes.

 

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

I suspect adma meant that the Green Party has, on occasion, posted some decent results in Calgary, but fewer in Edmonton.  This supports Ken's theory (which I think is true) that the Greens tend to do better in areas where the NDP has little, if any, ground campaign. 

There are exceptions to this theory, May did well in Guelph and Central Nova, and I expect her to have a strong showing in Saanich.  However, in those cases the Greens put in more resources because it's their leader's seat, and the NDP generally gets shuffled to the side.  Taking aside the effect of running a leader in a riding, GP vote tends to wither away to nothing when there is a strong NDP campaign present, and it tends to be stronger when there isnt.

Centrist

Latest Nanos:

Con: 38% (-1.8%)

Lib: 28.8% (-1.2%)

NDP: 17.9% (+1.3%)

BQ: 9.3% (+0.4%)

Grn: 5.9% (+1.3%)

Undecided: 19%

Extrapolated from the "Vote Profile" in this poll from today:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S09-T397.pdf

 

adma

Lou Arab wrote:
I suspect adma meant that the Green Party has, on occasion, posted some decent results in Calgary, but fewer in Edmonton.  This supports Ken's theory (which I think is true) that the Greens tend to do better in areas where the NDP has little, if any, ground campaign. 

Exactly.  Calgary's known to be less competitive for non-Tories than Edmonton, so voters feel more obligated to plump their conscientious vote in the Green column...

ottawaobserver

Also referred to in John Ivison's column of late this afternoon on Full Comment, entitled "Ignatieff slips closer to Dion territory".

bekayne
ocsi

Angus Reid

Conservatives 38

Liberals 23

NDP 17

BQ 11

remind remind's picture

NDP and Liberals could be tied if  the margin of error is 3, though ones does not know as they do not  say what it is...

Stockholm

The sample size for a telephone poll of 1,000 is 3.2%, but ARG's poll is an online poll and you aren't supposed to quote a margin of error on an online sample because it isn't derived from a totally random sample of the population. (I'm not saying its less accurate, just that strictly speaking you cannot describe a margin of error on an online poll)

remind remind's picture

Okay I get it....

Sean in Ottawa

In fact their record has them being more accurate.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Liberals at 23%!??!?!?

That's pretty stunning. 

Iggy's leadership numbers are also rock bottom.

Stockholm

If this trajectory continues, at some point we will see IL SORPASSO* - where the NDP overtakes the Liberals for the first time in a poll.

*In Italy, IL SORPASSO is often used to describe the day that the per capita income in Italy overtook the UK about 15 years ago.

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

If this trajectory continues, at some point we will see IL SORPASSO* - where the NDP overtakes the Liberals for the first time in a poll.

*In Italy, IL SORPASSO is often used to describe the day that the per capita income in Italy overtook the UK about 15 years ago.

They were tied at 21% in an Angus Reid poll during last year's election. If the NDP passed the Liberals, then the Conservatives would probably have a lead of over 20%

 

Debater

bekayne wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

If this trajectory continues, at some point we will see IL SORPASSO* - where the NDP overtakes the Liberals for the first time in a poll.

*In Italy, IL SORPASSO is often used to describe the day that the per capita income in Italy overtook the UK about 15 years ago.

They were tied at 21% in an Angus Reid poll during last year's election.

In one poll - which turned out not to be an accurate predictor of voting intentions since on election night the Liberals beat the NDP by a large margin.

What I am more interested in seeing is whether the Conservatives will drop in the next poll with the new controversy over the torture scandal and their refusal to do anything about it.

Stockholm

NOW, we're talkin'!!

Ipsos - which usually has the most consistently dismal numbers for the NDP - reports the following:

Tories - 37% (down 3)

Grits - 24% (down 1)

NDP - 19% (up 6!!)

Greens - 8% (down 1%)

BQ - 9%

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Federal+making+gains+Liberal+Tory+expe...

Bookish Agrarian

Gotta like these Ontario numbers

 

 

In Ontario, 39 per cent of decided voters said if an election were held today, they would cast their ballots for the Conservatives (down two points since October); the Liberals would attract 29 per cent support (down three points); the NDP 21 per cent, up eight points; and the Greens eight per cent, down six points.

 

 

Shows that Horwath instincts on the HST and other issues have been bang on as well.

bekayne

So the two polls released today were taken at the same time?

Stockholm

I believe the ARG was Nov. 16-18 and the Ipsos was Nov. 17-19. You can't get more recent than that.

Debater

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

Gotta like these Ontario numbers

 

 

In Ontario, 39 per cent of decided voters said if an election were held today, they would cast their ballots for the Conservatives (down two points since October); the Liberals would attract 29 per cent support (down three points); the NDP 21 per cent, up eight points; and the Greens eight per cent, down six points.

 

 

Shows that Horwath instincts on the HST and other issues have been bang on as well.

Dalton McGuinty was crazy to impose another tax hike on Ontarians.  He escaped the wrath of the people last time because of a badly-run Conservative campaign and John Tory's ineptitude.  You would have thought he'd learned his lesson and yet he went ahead and did it again.

adma

I'd wonder how much these numbers are a byproduct of the byelections as well...

janfromthebruce

Sure do like those Ontario numbers - I'm thinking that the NDP and lib numbers meet in the 3% margin of error for sure > 22/21 <

Go NDP

West Coast Lefty

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

Gotta like these Ontario numbers

  In Ontario, 39 per cent of decided voters said if an election were held today, they would cast their ballots for the Conservatives (down two points since October); the Liberals would attract 29 per cent support (down three points); the NDP 21 per cent, up eight points; and the Greens eight per cent, down six points.

 Shows that Horwath instincts on the HST and other issues have been bang on as well.

This is the trend that will take the NDP to IL Sorpasso if sustained - ARG had the NDP strong in BC, which is consistent with provincial NDP polling here and the NWC by-election result, but weak in Ontario.  If the IR trend is confirmed and the Lib vote in Ontario starts bleeding to the NDP, then we're starting to talk about 50+ seats in the next general and passing the BQ and even the Libs if they continue to slide.

ARG also has the Greens very high and we know that is classic "Astroturf" polling Wink it won't show up at the ballot box and Jack is well positioned to win that vote with his strong climate change positioning and Iggy championing the tar sands and joining Harper to block the NDP's climate change bill.

I'm really keen to see the next CROP or Léger poll from QC to see if the Rochelau NDP momentum is sustained on the Island of Montreal - i.e. is the NDP becoming the federalist alternative to the BQ in Montreal?

bekayne

The regionals are in for the Ipsos poll, so we can compare the 2 polls-taken at the same time:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2009/11/new-ipsos-poll-13-pt-conservative-lead.html

 

BC:

Ipsos Angus

Con 37% 44%

NDP 34% 25%

Lib 17% 19%

Grn 12% 12%

 

Alberta:

Ipsos

Con 63% 61%

Lib 14% 15%

NDP 9% 12%

Grn 13% 11%

 

Prairies:

Con 56% 55%

Lib 18% 16%

NDP 15% 27%

Grn 10% 2%

 

Ontario:

Con 39% 43%

Lib 29% 29%

NDP 21% 15%

Grn 8% 13%

 

Que:

BQ 38% 42%

Con 20% 19%

Lib 24% 19%

NDP 12% 14%

Grn 7% 7%

 

Atlantic:

Con 31% 33%

Lib 24% 33%

NDP 24% 29%

Grn 21% 6%

 

 

Stockholm

I guess averaging the regionals from the two polls would tell us something. I suspect that the folks at Ipsos must be pretty embarrassed about that absurd Green number in Atlantic Canada. I wonder if they got the decimal point in the wrong place and they meant 2.1%. If there is one place in Canada where I can assure you, Green party support is virtually non-existent - its in Atlantic Canada - esp. now that Elizabeth May has picked up her toys in Central Nova and left nothing behind. 

In BC, if you combine the two polls you would get Tories at 40.5% (down 4% from last election) and NDP at 29.5 (up 3.5 from '08) and the Liberals still pushing up daisies at 18% (down 1%) and the Greens (up 3% at 12) - apart from the fact that we know that Green support is as WCL so aptly described - pure astroturf - and will never materialize - that trend for BC would confirm the pattern we saw in the NWC byelection where a 3% NDP margin on election night last year turned into a 14% blow out!

Debater

One thing that is important to keep in perspective is how much volatility there has been over the past year.

It was only a year ago during the coalition crisis when people were predicting that Stephen Harper was finished politically and that the government would fall and he would be done.

Harper survived, and over the course of this year Harper recovered and has moved back up into a strong position.

Meanwhile, Ignatieff started out in a strong position and overtook Harper in the polls for a while and remained tied with him up until the end of the Summer.  Then Ignatieff collapsed and over the past few months people have been predicting his political demise.  However, like Harper, he could come back and recover as well.

That won't necessarily happen since Ignatieff may be now too damaged to win the next election or become PM, but the current polling trends and political dynamic we are seeing may change again by the time of the next election.

ottawaobserver

That's true Debater.  But the trick is to figure out what strategy is required to pull that off.  Thus far the Liberals haven't found the formula, and they have a lot of pretty smart strategic minds in that party.  I just think the world view they're all operating inside now has limited usefulness going forward, and they haven't found a new way of looking at things yet which is more relevant to their current situation.

adma

Though remember, too, the potentiality of their bluffing into something, even mid-election--cf John Turner in '88...

NorthReport

It's not a new poll but is this a new West Coast publication?

 

 

NDP inches closer to Grits in new poll

After taking repeated hits from the right flank by the Harper Conservatives, it now appears that the NDP are moving in to attack Michael Ignatieff's Liberals on the left flank, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and
Global Television.

In a political pincer attack, the NDP have charged ahead to 19% support nationally while the Liberals have retreated to 24% support, a new low for the Grits under Michael Ignatieff.

A relatively poor showing in the recently-held by-elections underscores the problems that opposition leader Michael Ignatieff is having resonating with the public.

Recent attacks on the government for partisan appointments and stimulus hand-outs, as well as allegations that Canadian Forces knowingly handed over Afghani detainees to certain torture, have failed to propel the faltering Liberals.

 

http://www.vancouverite.com/2009/11/21/ndp-inches-closer-to-grits-in-new...

ocsi

Here's the latest EKOS poll.  Totally unrealistic so far as the Green Party goes and one has to wonder what the numbers would look like without them being counted.

 

Sean in Ottawa

What is the point posting polls if we do not believe them? You can't take them selectively and say well I like that number but not the other number-- if you already have in your head what you want to believe then a poll won't inform--

There is a range for polls-- and people find them entertaining-- kinda like the astrology section in the paper, great until you start believing in it and then you are certifiable.

The only thing polls can tell you is an established trend over a long time-- like the Liberals are below the Cons and the NDP is in third place. If you get all excited as some did last week about the poll with the NDP and Liberals 4 points apart you'll only feel foolish when the next poll comes out (or you should feel foolish). That's why I downplayed the impact of that poll in another thread.

I have seen the NDP really on a move-- twice and it looks different. Once was in 1987-1988 when it went way up to around 40%. The other time was coming back up to traditional territory from single digits after Layton took over. These were things you could hear, see and feel not only in the polls but on the streets, in conversations. This last poll-- that's another thing.

I'll admit, a smaller trend just recently was observable: the NDP decision not to force an election went down well and the party reversed its declining support to around where it was before the last election.

Any other excitement is the product of people taking their entertainment too seriously or being sucked in to a media trying to manipulate that there is a story when there is not or trying to shove a stick in the eye of the Liberals (which may have its own entertainment value but can't be taken seriously either). We will wake up tomorrow and those New Dems who want something big to happen will still have their work cut out-- will still need to come up with a communications plan and platform that work. Nothing has changed yet but you won't need a single poll to tell you when it has.

Now we can go back to reading the polls and astrology pages for entertainment- ok?

 

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