The federal election, started June 21st, 2015

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Brachina

 Andrews doesn't have the full report, he never got to see it, I think.he only got to see the summary and that doesn't even mean he got to keep it.

felixr

One thing that people assume is that Mulcair would beat Harper in a debate. Harper would be no pushover though, and people should remember that.

NorthReport

Agreed.

Some people because they dislike Harper unfortunately underestimate him. 

Big mistake.

 

mark_alfred

NorthReport wrote:

Agreed.

Some people because they dislike Harper unfortunately underestimate him. 

Big mistake.

I don't think anyone underestimates Harper in the debates.  Often people refer to Harper, Mulcair, and Trudeau as "two men and a baby" when they refer to the upcoming debates.  So, there are high expectations for both the prime minister and for the leader of the opposition, anyway.

NorthReport

Gwynne Dyer: Islamic State massacres aren't really about the West

http://www.straight.com/news/479616/gwynne-dyer-islamic-state-massacres-...

Jacob Two-Two

felixr wrote:

One thing that people assume is that Mulcair would beat Harper in a debate. Harper would be no pushover though, and people should remember that.

It's not about Harper's competence, though. It's about his vulnerabilities. There are so many things to attack him over and all of them come off terrible. You're really spoiled for choice. I think Mulcair will beat Harper not because he's necessarily a better debater, but because he'll have better ammunition.

Brachina

 Harper is not a great debater, he has one effective tactic, ingore the others and talk straight to the camera. Mulcair knows Harper and will crush him.

mark_alfred

Harper not only ignores the others but also ignores the subject that's being discussed, veering off into irrelevent snipes instead.  To a degree, all politicians do this in debates, but it's particularly noticeable with Harper.

Precademic

Harper's rhetorical style is pretty predictable at this point. Perhaps Mulcair could challenge him to make a point without using the words "clearly" or "obviously" as it is rarely the case that what Harper says qualifies as clear or obvious unless one lives in a very myopic world. A few years back, I had my class count the number of fallacies in Harper's announcements or his performance in QP, and it quickly ballooned to the point that we lost count.

socialdemocrati...

Harper is not a great debater, he has one effective tactic, ingore the others and talk straight to the camera. 

That's actually the MOST effective tactic.

If the debate becomes Trudeau and Mulcair and May and Duceppe all bickering about who did what to who... Voters will start feeling more confidence in the guy talking straight into the camera. 

NorthReport

Senate's last day today - C377 vote.

Brachina

 Its a predictable tactic, all Mulcair has to do is disupt it.

Brachina

 Mulcair has sent a public letter to Steven Harper asking him to.defnd supply management against the TPP.

Sean in Ottawa

Actually Harper is already going with the most effective tactic.

1) damage the dabates -- have multiple ones so that no individual one gets much atention

2) Use the debates to find ammunition for out-of-context ads

3) get your CPC media hacks to say how great you were

Will it work?

Perhaps not. Social media means that CPC hacks are not the only voices being heard even if they dominate the MSM. Liberal hacks might agree with CPC hacks about the NDP but they will clearly do each other a fair bit of damage.

Many Conservatives in the media, while they may attack the NDP, are fed up with the Harper approach to the media, democracy and to the public. Come of those are liable to criticize and expose Harper. Harper will be getting some not-so-friendly fire fro people who actually are closest to him ideologically.

Pondering

Brachina wrote:

 Harper is not a great debater, he has one effective tactic, ingore the others and talk straight to the camera. Mulcair knows Harper and will crush him.

I think you are right.

mark_alfred wrote:

Harper not only ignores the others but also ignores the subject that's being discussed, veering off into irrelevent snipes instead.  To a degree, all politicians do this in debates, but it's particularly noticeable with Harper.

I suspect the reason Harper avoids the press and won't answer questions he hasn't prepared for is because he does not think fast on his feet.

Paul Wells has said that the Macleans debate will be designed differently and he plans on not letting them avoid his questions by veering off topic.

Harper may regret his choice to change the debate format.

socialdemocrati...

We'll see. One thing that the Conservatives do well is "message discipline". They don't answer questions. They just say what they were planning to say and leave it at that.

NorthReport
Pondering

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

We'll see. One thing that the Conservatives do well is "message discipline". They don't answer questions. They just say what they were planning to say and leave it at that.

Yup, but with a determined interviewer it will become obvious that he is avoiding the question.

NorthReport

Don't worry about Trudeau though as he will answer the questions but no one will believe more Liberal lies.

Pondering wrote:

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

We'll see. One thing that the Conservatives do well is "message discipline". They don't answer questions. They just say what they were planning to say and leave it at that.

Yup, but with a determined interviewer it will become obvious that he is avoiding the question.

socialdemocrati...

I hope it will be obvious. I think for most voters it will be.

The issue is how the rest of the candidates look. If they're all taking snipes, they just look negative and desperate, and get mud on each other. Harper might be the stubborn one, but he may easily look more steady than the alternatives. 

NorthReport

Maybe he will get his wish. Who knows.

Wanted: Grown-ups for the Tory war room and better economic numbers

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/30/wanted-grown-ups-for-the-tory-war-room-an...

Pondering

 

Whatever the directorial vision for this might have been, it’s definitely memorable — charming, even. One can only hope there are more such strange and beautiful creations to come this election.

I have to agree.

NorthReport

How many Liberals left the Liberal Cancus when Martin was running for re-election in 2006?

Harper loses more than 25 per cent of caucus ahead of election

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/06/harper-loses-25-per-cent-caucus-ahead...

 

nicky
bekayne

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/andrew-coyne-the-harper-government-use...

It is the palpable sense of other ministers maintaining their distance, in rhetorical terms at least, unwilling to indulge in the harshly partisan attacks he demands of his subordinates. The undying loyalists, the ones whose careers he promoted on just this basis — the Pierre Poilievres, the Chris Alexanders — will stick with him to the end. But that is pretty much all that remains, a dwindling palace guard of zealous staffers and the callower ministers. “The Harper government” used to be a branding exercise. It is now an almost literal description.

jerrym

Even Andrew Coyne sees that the Cons are in trouble in the article Stephen Harper is Alone, with a Party Adrift

http://www.pressreader.com/canada/leader-post/20150702/281844347293965/T...

NorthReport

- written by a Liberal

How a rare case of Conservative restraint caught Trudeau off guard

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/so-far-the-election-campaig...

NorthReport

How Del Mastro fought back against whistleblower

http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/2015/06/24/how-del-mastro-fought-...

NorthReport

Jerry Diaz has an article on Senate in the globe today

NorthReport

Alberta after the political earthquake

Her role beyond Alberta will get very big very quickly, however, even as she struggles to get a grip on managing Canada’s third largest provincial economy. In July, the premiers are committed to delivering on a promised national energy strategy. Alberta will be a crucial hinge vote in how far they collectively go on climate change, carbon pricing, and national co-operation. That decision, and the sales efforts the premiers will collectively make to defend it against Ottawa’s very different vision will also feature the new Alberta premier.

Within weeks after that will come the federal election, during which New Democrats federally will look to their new star for support as they launch their first serious attempt at winning nationally.

And again, with a break of only weeks, Alberta will need to decide what role to play in the Paris meetings of world leaders seeking a consensus on climate change. She and her fellow premiers may be accompanying a new Canadian prime minister, himself with only weeks on the job. It is a mind boggling set of cross-pressures for any government, let alone one on a steep learning curve about how to govern, struggling to shore up a flailing economy, and joining a set of discussions when their partners are already well on their way to decision.

But it would be unwise to bet against this improbable Alberta premier.


http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/03/sears-alberta-after-the-political-earthqu...

Brachina

 I think Premier Notley has a strong vested interest in Mulcair winning, beyond partisanship, Mulcair is offering more resources to the provinces for healthcare, university tuitition, on enviromental issues, creating revenue streams, simular vision on the enviroment, plus Mulcair will be able to sell the oilsands, where Harper never could and even the Liberals had a hard time as Mulcair has crediblity on the enviroment, and possibly other concerns. Plus he's not an asshole like Harper.

jerrym

Bank of America and the Japanese Namura Bank say there is enough evidence to show that Canada is in recession (officially two successive quarters of negative growth) without waiting for the official May and June economic numbers. When Canadian banks and Joe Oliver were asked about this they said we have to wait for the official numbers before we can say what the situation is. That is, Canadian banks are following the official Con line. Surprise! Surprise! In other words, the Cons and Canadian banks are not even denying what is about to become obvious.

Quote:

The Canadian economy is likely headed for recession, two major banks said Thursday, predicting a successive contraction in the second quarter.

Canada, the world's fifth-biggest oil producer, has been hard hit by tumbling global oil prices and its economy shrank 0.6 percent at an annualized rate in the first quarter. ...

Nomura bank said it expected the Gross Domestic Product to contract by 0.5 percent in the second quarter, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch said a 0.6 percent decline in that period was likely.

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Canadian-economy-heading-for-recession-...

 

A recession will have a major impact on the election because economics, as well as security (alias fear), were the two trump cards the Cons were counting on. After the second quarter report comes out, there will be only one more quarter before the election. Since the third quarter ends at the end of September, the third quarter report may not even be out before the election, although you can expect the Cons to do everything in their power to get it released if things are starting to improve economically, and to suppress its immediate release if things look bad. However, others, such as the international banks above, will make their own analysis of what is happening in the third quarter.  Nevertheless, history has shown that even if an economy starts to recover from a recession immediately before an election, it takes time for the people to feel it and to feel the government is doing a good job. One example of this was George Bush Senior who got no help from an economy that had been starting to recover for several months and lost to Clinton whose campaign strategist, James Carville, used the phrase "The economy, stupid" to help win the election. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It's_the_economy,_stupid)

In other words, things keep getting worse for Harper and economic attacks on the Cons could well be highly effective. Especially, because it is Harper's extreme focus on the fossil fuel industry that has made Canada so vunerable to a recession due to oil prices falling by one half. 

 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

The election will be upon us sooner than many realize. First of all it's summer, the focus is off politics, and secondly I'd be curious to know what percentage of voters now vote at the advance polls which are usually one to two weeks before October 19th. It seems that much higher percentages now vote in the advance polls. Also more and more voters aren't even waiting until the advance polls are open, as they are going directly to the Returning Officer's office and voting there, and that is usually open within a day or two of the writ being dropped. So voters may be looking at voting as early as mid-September. So everything else being equal, are we going to see significant changes now? Possibly, but probably not. 

 

 

bekayne

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/harper-urges-voters-to-avoid-risk...

CALGARY— Prime Minister Stephen Harper is warning voters that a victory by the New Democrats or Liberals in this fall’s election would bring European-style economic calamity to this country and open the door to an increased security threat from jihadist terrorists.

Image result for halloween

NorthReport

 

As for the Liberals, it is still a party in rebuilding mode after three general election disasters in a row. Justin Trudeau can rightly point to improved fundraising numbers and swelling memberships.

But when the House of Commons broke for the summer, there were just two members of his caucus from anywhere between Markham, Ont., and BC Place in downtown Vancouver. That would be Kevin Lamoureux in Winnipeg North and Ralph Goodale’s lonely Liberal outpost in southeast Regina.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/04/the-easy-ride-in-the-west-may-be-ov...

 

felixr

Brachina wrote:

 I think Premier Notley has a strong vested interest in Mulcair winning, beyond partisanship, Mulcair is offering more resources to the provinces for healthcare, university tuitition, on enviromental issues, creating revenue streams, simular vision on the enviroment, plus Mulcair will be able to sell the oilsands, where Harper never could and even the Liberals had a hard time as Mulcair has crediblity on the enviroment, and possibly other concerns. Plus he's not an asshole like Harper.

Alternatively, Brian Topp has a vested interest in Mulcair losing, as he would/could be the heir apparent.

Stockholm

felixr wrote:

Alternatively, Brian Topp has a vested interest in Mulcair losing, as he would/could be the heir apparent.

That's totally ludicrous...Topp is an extremely partisan, loyal New Democrat and i think he recognizes that this election is likely a once in a lifetime opportunity for the NDP to win. I also don't think he would ever run for the leadership again...realistically there is a whole new cast of characters who would come out of the woodwork whenever the NDP needs a post-Mulcair leader and Topp would not be on anyone's list. 

jerrym

Topp is and will not be heir apparent. One can debate his backroom skills, but he showed little in the way of ability to attract voters in the leadership campaign and is not running, as he promised, in this election, which would give him a chance to develop these skills. 

Sean in Ottawa

I doubt anyone who cared enough about the NDP to want to lead it would want the party to lose. That's absurd.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

bekayne wrote:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/harper-urges-voters-to-avoid-risk...

CALGARY— Prime Minister Stephen Harper is warning voters that a victory by the New Democrats or Liberals in this fall’s election would bring European-style economic calamity to this country and open the door to an increased security threat from jihadist terrorists.

Image result for halloween

Pathetic yet predictable.

Sean in Ottawa

alan smithee wrote:

bekayne wrote:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/harper-urges-voters-to-avoid-risk...

CALGARY— Prime Minister Stephen Harper is warning voters that a victory by the New Democrats or Liberals in this fall’s election would bring European-style economic calamity to this country and open the door to an increased security threat from jihadist terrorists.

Image result for halloween

Pathetic yet predictable.

Probably people believe that as much as they believe that we are not in a recession just becuase a Harper Finance Minister says we aren't.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

bekayne wrote:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/harper-urges-voters-to-avoid-risk...

CALGARY— Prime Minister Stephen Harper is warning voters that a victory by the New Democrats or Liberals in this fall’s election would bring European-style economic calamity to this country and open the door to an increased security threat from jihadist terrorists.

Image result for halloween

Pathetic yet predictable.

Probably people believe that as much as they believe that we are not in a recession just becuase a Harper Finance Minister says we aren't.

About 30% of the populace.

NorthReport

Dismay Voiced by Firebrands Who Helped Put Harper in Power

Reform party stalwarts wonder what happened to ideals of their populist revolt.

 

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/07/06/Firebrands-Power-Harper/

NorthReport
Pondering

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/close-election-race-could-force-conserva...

Close election race could force Conservatives to reconsider media relations Media avoidance may not work in race with no clear frontrunner

Why wouldn't it work? The press accepted the rules. They haven't given the Conservatives a hard time over the limited access.

 

NorthReport

That is just Liberal hype
We know what the parties represent
Liberals and Tories, same ole right-wing story
NDP represent what Canadians want which is change

NorthReport

The debate about democracy (whatever that means)

Paul Wells on Greece’s bailout vote and the ‘essentially contested concept’ of democracy

 

http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/the-debate-about-democracy-whatever-th...

NorthReport
NorthReport

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