The federal election, started June 21st, 2015

431 posts / 0 new
Last post
NorthReport
NorthReport

New voices, new approaches expected in 2015 campaign coverage

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/07/13/new-voices-new-approaches-...

NorthReport

Bloomberg-Nanos Economic Banner

Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

 

The forward looking expectations on the Canadian economy has slid for the third week in succession with a full point drop in the latest week of tracking.

 

"Consumer sentiment on both the future strength of the Canadian economy and the value of real estate realized negative pressure in the last week," said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

 

"Oil prices dropped 6 percent in one day in the last week and are down 13 percent from their recent high. Capacity utilization appears to have peaked, manufacturing shipments and total exports continue to fall, and the Bank of Canada reports that 'hiring intentions are still weak', all of which have prompted talk of another rate cut," said Robert Lawrie of Bloomberg Economics.

 

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 56.13 compared with last week's 56.61. The twelve month high stands at 60.60.

 

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 60.42 this week compared to 60.28 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 51.84 this week (compared to 52.93 last week).

 

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 57.00 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 55.77 this year.

 

To view the weekly tracking visit our website

Methodology

 

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

 

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

 

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.  Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Consumer Confidence Index Data Summary for July 10th, 2015:

 

BNCCI

This week

56.13

Last week

56.61

2015 high

56.87

May 22

2015 low

53.63

Feb 27

2015 average

55.77

2008 average

49.21

Worst full year

2010 average

59.13

Best full year

Dec 31, 2008

43.28

Record low

Dec 31, 2009

62.92

Record high

Overall index average

57.00

Individual Measures:

Positive ratings

This week

Last week

Average 2015

Average 2008-2015

Personal finances

16.78

15.96

20.52

19.65

Canadian economy

14.05

15.42

16.56

20.94

Job security

70.37

70.15

70.07

66.56

Real estate

37.25

37.97

34.54

36.53

Full Ratings

Better off

Worse off

No change

Don't know

Personal finances

16.78

23.79

57.75

1.69

Stronger

Weaker

No change

Don't know

Canadian Economy

14.05

30.07

47.60

8.28

Secure

Somewhat secure

Somewhat not secure

Not secure

Don't know

Job security

51.99

18.39

6.21

7.08

16.34

Increase

Stay the same

Decrease

Don't know

Real estate

37.25

45.46

13.87

3.42

 

 

n 
Nik Nanos, FMRIA 
Chairman  email: nnanos@nanosresearch.com  web: http://www.nanosresearch.com  

 

NorthReport

Don't Underestimate Religion's Role This Election

Fast changing faith has forged a whole new campaign playing field in Canada.

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/07/13/Religions-Role-This-Election/

NorthReport

+

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

On teasers

Yes, this will do nicely as the trailer for the long-awaited film The Fall of the Harper Conservatives:

https://youtu.be/CmmSV1jtK3s

http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.ca/2015/07/on-teasers.html

NorthReport

Cunning Tories may plan early election call — with aim of draining opponents' finances

John Ivison: It seems extremely likely that Harper will drop the writ sometime in mid-August, then launch a lopsided advertising war using his greater financial firepower

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-cunning-tories-may...

NorthReport

Canada ranked as 'most admired' country in the world

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-ranked-as-most-admired-country-in-th...

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Cunning Tories may plan early election call — with aim of draining opponents' finances

John Ivison: It seems extremely likely that Harper will drop the writ sometime in mid-August, then launch a lopsided advertising war using his greater financial firepower

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-cunning-tories-may...

 

Likely.

Of course it is possible that sucha lopsided ad war may backfire -- espeically as these ads will be sourced in a political culture that is quite out of touch.

It may work to get the vote out but likely it will alienate the people they need to win. If they just want to spend the money to save the furniture (and a Kim Campbell-style debacle) then it could work. But I don't see the CPC getting out of this mess with ads.

NorthReport

Madison Avenue exists for a reason. 

-----------------------------------

Ha! Ha! Ha!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bank-of-canada-s-stephen-poloz-calls-the...

NorthReport
Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/07/17/gary-adams-green-party-li_n_7819.... A poster down thread on the HP page pointed out the NDP is actually best seated to defeat the Tory but the Greens are supporting the Libs. If anyone here thinks the Greens care about anything other then taking down the NDP, you should get your heads examined. "Progressive Liberals and Greens"? THERE'S an oxymoron!

bekayne

Arthur Cramer wrote:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/07/17/gary-adams-green-party-li_n_7819.... A poster down thread on the HP page pointed out the NDP is actually best seated to defeat the Tory but the Greens are supporting the Libs. If anyone here thinks the Greens care about anything other then taking down the NDP, you should get your heads examined. "Progressive Liberals and Greens"? THERE'S an oxymoron!

Nobody has a chance in Kelowna-Lake Country. The NDP would win this if they won, say 250-300 seats.

NorthReport

THE MONCTON TIMES@TRANSCRIPT - GOOD AND BAD

A CRTICIAL REVIEW, WHETHER POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE, OF THE MONCTON TIMES& TRAUNSCRIPT.

 

Luckily, in our times of deepest stress, humanity produces inspirational leaders like Desmond Tutu, Mahatma Ghandi, Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump.

http://time.com/3963767/donald-trump-john-mccain-apology/

I'm not sure that it any longer matters who wins an American election. But an ignorant, irresponsible and greedy egoist like Trump still scares the hell out of me

http://themonctongrimes-dripdrain.blogspot.ca/2015/07/july-19.html

Precademic

@NorthReport: it is split as to whether Trump is a bigger gift to the dems or the GOP. His buffoonery might make the republican candidates appear more sane, or might serve the dem interests. If Trump became prez, civil war in six months, guaranteed.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I think this garbage about ABC is simply a front for vote Liberal. Its like the Libs and Greens want to be spoliers and re-elect Harper before they'll allow a NDP government. ABC is a lie; ABC means vote Liberal! Period!

NorthReport

All this shows is:

1- the stupidiy of the Greens

and

2 - another right-wing Green attack on the NDP.

This will result in the Cons keeping the seat. 

It's obvious this is a setup from the get-go, and May is probably enginerering the whole thing.

mark_alfred

Didn't various opposition parties in Alberta's election, like the Alberta Party and the Libs, do something similar?  Gerrymandering, of a sort?  Seems it didn't work.  People prefer a solid choice like the NDP.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

bekayne wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/07/17/gary-adams-green-party-li_n_7819.... A poster down thread on the HP page pointed out the NDP is actually best seated to defeat the Tory but the Greens are supporting the Libs. If anyone here thinks the Greens care about anything other then taking down the NDP, you should get your heads examined. "Progressive Liberals and Greens"? THERE'S an oxymoron!

Nobody has a chance in Kelowna-Lake Country. The NDP would win this if they won, say 250-300 seats.

That isn't the point. The Greens won't support the NDP when they are in the lead; they should stop pretending they aren't Liberals. Period!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

DP - sorry

Brian Glennie

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Cunning Tories may plan early election call — with aim of draining opponents' finances

John Ivison: It seems extremely likely that Harper will drop the writ sometime in mid-August, then launch a lopsided advertising war using his greater financial firepower

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-cunning-tories-may...

 

Likely.

Of course it is possible that sucha lopsided ad war may backfire -- espeically as these ads will be sourced in a political culture that is quite out of touch.

It may work to get the vote out but likely it will alienate the people they need to win. If they just want to spend the money to save the furniture (and a Kim Campbell-style debacle) then it could work. But I don't see the CPC getting out of this mess with ads.

2007: McGuinty Majority

2011: Harper Majority

2011: McGuinty Majority

2013: Wynne Majority

2015: Harper Majority

Watch the CPC get out of this mess.

 

 

 

 

NorthReport

Nervous nellies. Yes of course it will be Harper who will be the biggest threat to Mulcair, as that was obvious two years ago, the moment Liberals annointed Trudeau as Leader. The Liberal media complex has been quite efficient keeping Trudeau in the limelight but the problem with his foot and mouth disease, is Liberals would have been better off if they had kept him out of sight until the election is over. The one thing the Liberal media complex cannot hide is that Liberal support is kilometres wide but only a centimeter deep. Voters have been fooled way too often by the Liberals, so voters know now what to do - they need to vote for the party which best represents their interests, which obviously includes defeating the Cons.

The Leger poll out tonite shows Trudeau dropping the Liberal support by 22% against the NDP since March, 2015, a short few months.

NorthReport

Mulcair jumps election starting gun, launches campaign-style tour of Ontario

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/07/19/mulcair-jumps-election-start...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  3h3 hours ago

While Mulcair is playing offence in Ontario, more evidence that Justin is playing defence in the safest of ridings

Embedded image permalink

 

--------

3,200

 

NorthReport

Why isn’t Harper’s record on democracy an election issue?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/why-isnt-harpers-record-on-...

terrytowel

On Power & Politics today NDP commentator Robin MacLachlan just said since the NDP is leading, progressives must get behind the NDP.

The only way to defeat the Conservatives, is to support the NDP.

JKR

Arthur Cramer wrote:

I think this garbage about ABC is simply a front for vote Liberal. Its like the Libs and Greens want to be spoliers and re-elect Harper before they'll allow a NDP government. ABC is a lie; ABC means vote Liberal! Period!

I think that unlike most people on Babble, many people in the general population think the NDP, Liberals, Greens, and BQ are similar to each other and different from the Conservatives. So it makes sense that many people support "ABC" without being clandestine agents of the Liberal Party.

terrytowel

JKR wrote:

 So it makes sense that many people support "ABC" without being clandestine agents of the Liberal Party.

But the NDP is now saying the only way to vote ABC strategically is NOT TO VOTE Liberal.

JKR

terrytowel wrote:

JKR wrote:

 So it makes sense that many people support "ABC" without being clandestine agents of the Liberal Party.

But the NDP is now saying the only way to vote ABC strategically is NOT TO VOTE Liberal.

That makes sense considering that the NDP is now back in the top-2. That's how FPTP politics is played. Thankfully the NDP supports establishing MMP.

NorthReport

But what do u think tt?

Although it sounds nice and as much as I would prefer for the NDP to win the election whatever that means I believe people should vote for the party that best represents their interests

Now it depends what a persons interest are

If defeating Harper is included in a persons interest then they will take that into consideration

But if someone wants to vote green or vote liberal that's their business
Some people might think voting for a party they support is the way to go and that is their business
Others might have other issues and based on those other issues such as wanting to ensure Harper is defeated then they might choose another approach to voting but again that is their business

Everyone is different and we all have different interests

terrytowel wrote:

On Power & Politics today NDP commentator Robin MacLachlan just said since the NDP is leading, progressives must get behind the NDP.

The only way to defeat the Conservatives, is to support the NDP.

terrytowel

JKR wrote:

That makes sense considering that the NDP is now back in the top-2. That's how FPTP politics is played. Thankfully the NDP supports establishing MMP.

As I said "IT'S OVER" for the Liberals, no way they turn things around on this sinking ship

BUT posters here slammed the Liberals when they advocated tactical voting.

Saying strategic voting means one thing "Vote Liberal"

But now you guys (and the NDP) are advocating strategic voting, now that the NDP is in the drivers seat?

What happened to "Don't vote out of fear"?

Brachina

 I am not advocating, and I control no one other then myself, so don't blame me if some people in the NDP are acting hypocritical.

 I don't support the behavior, I have far better reasons to vote NDP.

JKR

Brachina wrote:

 I am not advocating, and I control no one other then myself, so don't blame me if some people in the NDP are acting hypocritical.

 I don't support the behavior, I have far better reasons to vote NDP.

Unfortunately the NDP has to play the FPTP game. The problems we have with vote splitting and wasted votes are caused by FPTP. Reasonably many voters practice tactical voting to try to overcome FPTP's inherent weakness. In supporting electoral reform, the NDP is acting in good faith in trying to finally end tactical voting in future elections.

mark_alfred

tt, I haven't heard any New Democrat advocate strategic voting.  Certainly Mulcair is not saying anything as inane as "there's only an Orange Door or a Blue Door," (IE, to imply that to beat the evil Harper, you must choose the Orange Door, because a vote for anything else leads nowhere).  Think about it.  A Liberal leader actually used the "Red Door/Blue Door" analogy.  You don't hear such horseshit from New Democrats.  The focus is on better policy and better government.  Gerrymandering in any form (strategic voting, pre-election arrangements between parties like what the Greens and Libs have done in the past) is unacceptable to New Democrats.  It is and always should be the people's choice.

terrytowel

mark_alfred wrote:
tt, I haven't heard any New Democrat advocate strategic voting. 

As far back as 2012 Mulcair has been saying "Only the NDP can defeat Stephen Harper's Conservatives."

http://www.dailyheraldtribune.com/2012/12/12/mulcair-says-progressives-s...

Also said it at the CUPE conference

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-brings-election-promises-to-...

In June a press release issued saying "We are the party best positioned to defeat Stephen Harper"

http://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-ready-to-replace-conservatives

On several incumbents websites they have a page called "Defeating Harper" saying Only the NDP can defeat the Conservatives in FILL IN RIDING HERE. Like Kennedy Stewart

http://www.kennedystewart.ca/defeating_harper

And finally just yesterday NDP commentator Robin McLaughlan was on Power & Politics saying the NDP is the only choice to oust the Conservatives.

socialdemocrati...

The quote is: "The next election is going to be about a clear choice between the Conservatives and the NDP, the only party that's standing up to them and offers an alternative."

There is a Liberal party you can vote for. But they're not standing up to the Conservatives, or offering a meaningful alternative or clear choice. That's always been true, no matter what the polls have said.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Terry Towel, Tom isn't saying vote strategically, he's saying, vote NDP. There's a big difference!

NorthReport

I am the undertaker, hear me squeak  

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/i-am-the-undertaker-hear-me-squeak/

 

 

takeitslowly

terrytowel wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:
tt, I haven't heard any New Democrat advocate strategic voting. 

As far back as 2012 Mulcair has been saying "Only the NDP can defeat Stephen Harper's Conservatives."

http://www.dailyheraldtribune.com/2012/12/12/mulcair-says-progressives-s...

Also said it at the CUPE conference

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-brings-election-promises-to-...

In June a press release issued saying "We are the party best positioned to defeat Stephen Harper"

http://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-ready-to-replace-conservatives

On several incumbents websites they have a page called "Defeating Harper" saying Only the NDP can defeat the Conservatives in FILL IN RIDING HERE. Like Kennedy Stewart

http://www.kennedystewart.ca/defeating_harper

And finally just yesterday NDP commentator Robin McLaughlan was on Power & Politics saying the NDP is the only choice to oust the Conservatives.

 

Thats not advocating strategic voting.

takeitslowly

Carol Goar from Toronto Star says the Liberal's plan for unviersal child care is "fairer". wtf

 

The NDP leader would simply deliver Harper’s enriched benefit, while giving parents a chance to get in on the ground floor of his eight-year plan to develop a $15-a-day national child care system.

The Liberal leader would scrap Harper’s assortment of payments and tax breaks (the Universal Child Care Benefit, the Canada Child Tax Benefit, the National Child Benefit Supplement and a parental income-splitting scheme) and introduce a single, tax-free Canada Child Benefit targeted at middle-and lower-income families. He would also launch a yet-to-be-unveiled national child-care strategy.

Both proposals trump Harper’s election goody. But they send different messages. Mulcair is offering low-risk, incremental change. Trudeau is offering a fairer, more coherent approach.

 

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/07/21/tories-roll-out-taxpayer-funded-payola-goar.html

NorthReport

Justin Trudeau’s rigour problem

The second in a four-part series on the challenges each federal party faces in the lead-up to the October election.

Patrick Brazeau they ain’t.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/07/22/justin-trudeaus-rig...

NorthReport

Liberal candidate investigated for failing to report all nomination expenses

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/07/23/liberal-candidate-investigat...

NorthReport

The new faces of the Liberals. Yikes!  Frown

Like to see the NDP take this seat.  

Dimitri Soudas buys Liberal membership ahead of Eve Adams's nomination vote

Adams, rival Marco Mendicino vie Sunday for party's nomination in Eglinton-Lawrence riding

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dimitri-soudas-buys-liberal-membership-a...

NorthReport

From the Libera media complex

Liberal Ad Says Harper Can't Stop Talking About Trudeau's Hair

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/07/23/liberal-ad-harper-trudeau-hair_n...

NorthReport

Bingo!

Andrew Mitrovica - now that's a journalist who actually knows his trade. 

This is the kind of stuff the CBC in this case, and other media in other cases use to make noise when they wish to divert attention from what is really going on.

Mainstream media election coverage is off to a slow start

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think many Canadians woke up in a cold sweat yesterday morning worrying about the whereabouts of obscure staffers in the Prime Minister’s Office.

Still, that was the breaking news out of the nation’s capital Wednesday, courtesy of Postmedia’s Kady O’Malley, who informed readers she’d discovered the names of several PMO political staffers who had mysteriously “vanished” (or not) from the government’s online directory — apparently, more not-so-subtle proof that Stephen Harper plans to drop the writ in early August.

O’Malley’s ‘scoop’ (she later confirmed — or didn’t — that nine staffers had taken leave of the PMO for “unstated reasons”) was the top story on the National Post’s homepage for an embarrassingly long time yesterday.

--------------------


http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/23/mainstream-media-election-coverage-is-off...

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  2h2 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted Stephen Maher

Mulcair-mania!

Norman Spector added,

Stephen Maher @stphnmaherMulcair signs a shirt for a supporte after speech. He’s mobbed by people seeking pictures.

 

NorthReport

  FollowNorman Spector‏@nspector4

Oh, Justin! [Front page of the Financial Post]

Embedded image permalink

 

NorthReport

Why would folks think the E-L process is rigged?

IMG_1923 (1)

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/why-would-folks-think-the-e-l-process-...

Pages

Topic locked