The federal election, started June 21st, 2015

431 posts / 0 new
Last post
mark_alfred

I just heard on the news that the election is going to be called on this weekend (likely Sunday).  It will still be on October the 19, but the campaign will be longer (78 days as opposed to whatever it normally is....38 or so).

link

Sean in Ottawa

Yes-- I predicted this a  few weeks ago when the Harper Pac was shut down. Why else would they do that?

The economic advantage will be huge. But the people may react negatively -- at least we hope.

NorthReport

The sudden mysterious rise of Thomas Mulcair

The third in a four-part series on the political challenges each federal party leader faces in the lead-up to the October election.

Mulcair has made the transition from Quebec provincial to Canadian national politics, painfully slowly at first and then with a sudden lift-off. As a seasoned street fighter in Quebec politics, he is unlikely to be wrong-footed by a reporter’s question, or a debate jab. Repeated efforts to provoke him to anger have failed since his arrival in Ottawa, and seem less likely now than ever. He can safely leave the Trudeau attack to the Tories. He will need to constrain a certain condescension towards the youngest and greenest of the national leaders, as he needs to woo Trudeau voters, not insult their leader.

Two key differences will separate this NDP national campaign from any before it. First, the paid artillery available to its campaign leaders is closer to a level playing field with their competitors than ever in party’s history. Not only will the national campaign spend to their ceiling, so will a greater percentage of riding campaigns than ever before.

But the transformational legacy that Layton bequeathed to his successor is their fortress in Quebec. Never before has an NDP leader enjoyed the strategic asset of having 50-75 ridings as a rock solid base. The gap between their current 100-member caucus and the 175 required for a majority is wide. But, as recent events have demonstrated, when the political stars align, not unbridgeable.

Mulcair’s challenge is that he is the first party leader in the CCF/NDP’s 82-year history to make a genuinely competitive run for victory. Expectations, sagging so badly only months ago, are now sky-high. Persuading Canadian voters for the first time to extend the party that trust will be the test of his leadership.

 

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/07/29/the-sudden-mysterio...

NorthReport

Ha! Ha! Ha!

Strategic voting in a nutshell.  Frown

When Mulcair has the lead Cooksley supports getting rid of Harper, but when Trudeau has the lead Cooksey support the Liberals. 

Strategic voting touted as key to defeating Stephen Harper’s Conservatives this fall

Back in June 2014, Jon Cooksey of GreenLibs said that his group picked Liberal leader Justin Trudeau over the NDP’s Tom Mulcair as its champion to get rid of Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

“Mulcair is by no means terrible on all fronts,” Cooksey told theStraight in a phone interview at the time. “He’s a good politician. We just don’t think he can beat Harper because, ultimately, Trudeau has the brand name.”

A little over a year later, Mulcair is polling even-Steven with Harper, and Trudeau is fading to third.

In a new interview, Cooksey, a filmmaker, acknowledged the possibility that Mulcair may be headed for the prime minister’s office, instead of Trudeau.

“With the rise of the NDP, obviously it changes that calculation,” Cooksey told the Straight by phone Tuesday (July 28). “And so for us, you know, we’ve shifted our priority back to where the real priority is, which is defeating Harper.”


http://www.straight.com/news/499011/strategic-voting-touted-key-defeatin...

NorthReport

 Norman Spector retweetedJohn Ibbitson ‏@JohnIbbitson  36m36 minutes ago

John Ibbitson retweeted Tom Mulcair

In over 40 years of watching politics, never have I seen the NDP this professional, this confident, this engaged.

John Ibbitson added,

1:49Tom Mulcair @ThomasMulcair"My friends, we're closer than ever to building the Canada of our dreams." Watch the latest #NDP video. #cdnpoli https://amp.twimg.com/v/64c6ebc5-7c08-42d7-a52d-2469ce0bee7f 

 

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  1h1 hour ago

! Last sentence: Flora MacDonald said she still considers herself a red Tory but now votes NDP. http://www.canada.com/News/canada/Harper+skip+Tory+Flora+MacDonald+funeral/11252235/story.html …

 

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  3h3 hours ago

Still no example under the fixed election date law of a majority PM doing what Jean Chretien did to Stockwell Day

  • RETWEETS3
  • DougPaul ObedaJoseph Fisher

3:17 PM - 29 Jul 2015 · Details

 

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Trudeau didn’t have to put his party through this defeat

http://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/5752643-trudeau-didn-t-have-to-pu...

What defeat? He didn't interfere in the campaign. He said the nominations were open. The right person won after he got whatever he wanted from Eve and her boyfriend.

Sean in Ottawa

NR the video link is not working -- do you have a link to the video?

NorthReport

NDP supporter, then no state funeral for you then!

Unfortunate mean-spirited behaviour by our PM who also said he will not be attending Flora's funeral.

 

NorthReport wrote:

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  1h1 hour ago

! Last sentence: Flora MacDonald said she still considers herself a red Tory but now votes NDP. http://www.canada.com/News/canada/Harper+skip+Tory+Flora+MacDonald+funeral/11252235/story.html …

 

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

NDP supporter, then no state funeral for you then!

Unfortunate mean-spirited behaviour by our PM who also said he will not be attending Flora's funeral.

 

NorthReport wrote:

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  1h1 hour ago

! Last sentence: Flora MacDonald said she still considers herself a red Tory but now votes NDP. http://www.canada.com/News/canada/Harper+skip+Tory+Flora+MacDonald+funeral/11252235/story.html …

I could have sworn Jack Layton was an NDP supporter.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Eve Adams crashes, grassroots repudiate Trudeau choice: Tim Harper

Justin Trudeau must wear a decision to bring a Conservative interloper into Toronto’s Eglinton-Lawrence riding.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/26/eve-adams-crashes-grassroo...

Eve Adams’s failed nomination bid casts doubts on Trudeau’s judgment

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/eve-adamss-failed-nominatio...

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Trudeau didn’t have to put his party through this defeat

http://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/5752643-trudeau-didn-t-have-to-pu...

What defeat? He didn't interfere in the campaign. He said the nominations were open. The right person won after he got whatever he wanted from Eve and her boyfriend.

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

The fall of Justin Trudeau 

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/29/the-fall-of-justin-trudeau

But the problem is media narratives create a false sense of certainty and predictability about politics, which is a chaotic system.

Think of all the media narratives we’ve told you over the years which turned out to be wrong or suspect. Here’s just a few of them.

* Angry Tom Mulcair could never become prime minister.

* Christian Conservative Stephen Harper, with his ‘hidden agenda”, could never become prime minister.

* Finance Minister Paul Martin would be the founder of a new Liberal * political dynasty, post Jean Chretien.

* “Yesterday’s man”, Jean Chretien, could never become prime minister.

* The NDP could never win a provincial election in Tory Alberta.

* The Liberals could never win a provincial election in Tory Ontario.

* Former teacher, ski instructor and golf club manager Mike Harris, would never become Ontario premier.

I’ve been predicting the politically corrupt Ontario Liberals couldn’t possibly win another provincial election ever since 2007, when Dalton McGuinty defeated John Tory.

Tory, whom I predicted was finished as a politician in 2007 after three significant political defeats, is now mayor of Toronto.

That’s the problem with media narratives about politicians. Often, they’re just wrong.

wage zombie

Pondering wrote:

What defeat? He didn't interfere in the campaign. He said the nominations were open. The right person won after he got whatever he wanted from Eve and her boyfriend.

Turns out Pondering was right on this one.

NorthReport

Only in your dreams wz

Eve Adams’ nomination loss puts end to harmful blunder by Justin Trudeau

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/stephen-maher-eve-adams-nomina...

wage zombie wrote:

Pondering wrote:

What defeat? He didn't interfere in the campaign. He said the nominations were open. The right person won after he got whatever he wanted from Eve and her boyfriend.

Turns out Pondering was right on this one.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Only in your dreams wz

Eve Adams’ nomination loss puts end to harmful blunder by Justin Trudeau

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/stephen-maher-eve-adams-nomina...

wage zombie wrote:

Pondering wrote:

What defeat? He didn't interfere in the campaign. He said the nominations were open. The right person won after he got whatever he wanted from Eve and her boyfriend.

Turns out Pondering was right on this one.

If you are meaning a defeat regarding Adams -- it most certainly is  a defeat -- where Trudeau can least afford -- the shreds of his credibility. Partisan Liberals will forgive him but he is looking like a goof to others. Joe was Joe Who? Justin is Justin Why?

mark_alfred

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

NR the video link is not working -- do you have a link to the video?

I believe this should work:  link

mark_alfred

Regarding Eve Adams, the riding's decision to go with someone else is a repudiation of Trudeau.  He directly involved himself in her decision to join the Libs and run for them.  In doing so he was announcing she was a great catch.  The riding rejecting her is directly disagreeing with him.  It's very similar to the repudiation of Prentice after Smith was rejected.

socialdemocrati...

By this point it was already too late for Trudeau. If he intervened, it would have been breaking his promise about open nominations, and the highest profile example of that yet. But he didn't intervene, and she lost. So now the media is talking about how he blew it for recruiting Eve Adams in the first place. It was such an obviously bad idea to recruit a vicious conservative with a ton of baggage. The only thing that makes sense is they wanted the dirt from Dimitri Soudas, and he did try to do that hatchet job earlier this summer, with no success.

Sean in Ottawa

mark_alfred wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

NR the video link is not working -- do you have a link to the video?

I believe this should work:  link

This is what I meant by a message that leaves me uncomfortable. This is an appeal to the middle class -- and not the nobody left behind more inclusive one I prefer. I am part of the middle class he speaks of but this is not how I see my aspiration for the country. Sorry I am not fond of this messaging-- even if it works. Nothing for people who have effectively fallen out of the so-called middle class or who can't claw their way in. I think an inclusive message can work as well and this is not that. Anyway I spoke of this before. This ad could be from the Liberals or Conservatives -- not even a direct statement to the effect that the Canada of our dreams is one where everyone is better off. I look for more than self interest. The NDP has done better ads than this.

-- and this was a video messaging us - the people who have long supported the party. Not the general voters. Does nto pick up my motivations anyway. Not inspiring from me. -- Sorry.

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

Regarding Eve Adams, the riding's decision to go with someone else is a repudiation of Trudeau.  He directly involved himself in her decision to join the Libs and run for them.  In doing so he was announcing she was a great catch.  The riding rejecting her is directly disagreeing with him.  It's very similar to the repudiation of Prentice after Smith was rejected.

Nonsense. Trudeau accepted her into caucus when she crossed the floor as an elected MP. Based on open nominiations she was permitted to compete for a riding which she lost because the original candidate already had a substancial following.

I don't think people are nearly as naive as you think they are. Most get that she was accepted due to the information she and her boyfriend might have about the inner-workings of the Harper regime.

NorthReport

Eve Adams = Trudeau Fail

 Just another in what is becoming a very long list of Trudeau failures. 

It is truly staggering how far the Liberal party has fallen and changed since Paul Martin ousted Chretien in a putsch in 2002. 

And even more bad news for Trudeau, Paul Martin and his cronies, Herle, Reid, etc., are still around, dragging the Liberals down further still.

Very discouraging to think that even one Canadian voted for a prime minister who who put his companies offshore to avoid Canadian taxes, to avoid Canadian labour legislation, and to avoid Canadian environmental laws.

 

https://books.google.ca/books?id=LITNdiHQPnwC&pg=PT395&lpg=PT395&dq=paul...


NorthReport

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair visits region key to party’s hopes of forming government

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/07/30/ndp-leader-tom-mulcair-visit...

NorthReport

Of course I don't always agree with everything Norm says but he is often a breathe of fresh air compared to the same old tired nonsense in both the Liberal and Conservaive media complexes which comprise Canada's mainstream media.      

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  53m53 minutes ago

Norman Spector retweeted David Akin

It's actually quite courageous for @ThomasMulcair given his QC base to point out the obvious about Toronto

Norman Spector added,

David Akin @davidakinWpg Sun’s @tombrodbeck calls out @ThomasMulcair for Toronto-pandering http://bit.ly/1Iufmnu 

 

JeffWells

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

-- and this was a video messaging us - the people who have long supported the party. Not the general voters. Does nto pick up my motivations anyway. Not inspiring from me. -- Sorry.

I felt the same, and was too embarrassed by the video to even share it. Given the title "Closer Than Ever" I expected a second or two callback to the party's heritage. A brief glimpse of Douglas, maybe. It's supposedly pitched to folks already onboard, right? I think "Closer Than Ever" begs for a signpost as to how long we've been waiting.

And again with the "middle class." I understand, though don't care for, the jargon to a broader audience. But repeating it, and repeating it, to core supporters makes me wonder whether HQ knows who we are, and why we're New Democrats.

The French version is superior, IMO.

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  48m48 minutes ago

The attacks on Mulcair for 'Toronto-pandering', dual citizenship [he'll give up] and Energy-East [a misquote] have been pitifully weak

 

Sean in Ottawa

JeffWells wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

-- and this was a video messaging us - the people who have long supported the party. Not the general voters. Does nto pick up my motivations anyway. Not inspiring from me. -- Sorry.

I felt the same, and was too embarrassed by the video to even share it. Given the title "Closer Than Ever" I expected a second or two callback to the party's heritage. A brief glimpse of Douglas, maybe. It's supposedly pitched to folks already onboard, right? I think "Closer Than Ever" begs for a signpost as to how long we've been waiting.

And again with the "middle class." I understand, though don't care for, the jargon to a broader audience. But repeating it, and repeating it, to core supporters makes me wonder whether HQ knows who we are, and why we're New Democrats.

The French version is superior, IMO.

Of course I feel this in the context of the party not having its phone answered by a live person. Out of touch with membership is a concept that comes to mind.

Maybe some are too filled with visions of victory dancing in their heads to remember who we are.

NorthReport

Ha!

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  3h3 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted John Ibbitson

Accountability not always what it's cracked up to be in newspaper editorials!

Norman Spector added,

John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitsonThere is no evil more foul than dredging up a columnist's misprognostications. Temps one to do same with pollster. https://twitter.com/voiceoffranky/status/626591951274569729 

 

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  3h3 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted Paul McLeod

+ 10

Norman Spector added,

Paul McLeod @pdmcleodWidely mocked upon release, the Conservatives’ ‘job interview’ ad is now cited as what buried Justin Trudeau. http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/07/29/cash-rich-tories-carpet-bomb-trude...

 

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  4h4 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted Stephen Maher

+ 10

Norman Spector added,

Stephen Maher @stphnmaherUseful bit of pundit humility from @sunlorrie http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/07/29/the-fall-of-justin-trudeau 

 

NorthReport

Mysterious is a diplomatic choice of adjective.

The overriding reason that anyone is surprised is because of the crap (read: anti-NDP, pro Lib & Con) Canadians are spoon-fed 24/7 by the right-wing Liberal and Conservative media complexes in Canada. Canada's mainstream media have been deceiving voters since they began. But a tip of the hat, particularly to our younger generations who, with the help of the 'net, have been able to cut through the bs, and who have a better handle than others, which political party best represents their interests, and this is the reason for the NDP's strong showing in the polls.

The sudden mysterious rise of Thomas Mulcair

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/07/29/the-sudden-mysterio...

JeffWells

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Maybe some are too filled with visions of victory dancing in their heads to remember who we are.

 

Could be. There's quite a distance between making life a little more affordable for the middle class and "the Canada of our dreams." Perhaps I wouldn't have been so bothered by this video if either one or the other hadn't been mentioned.

NorthReport
  1. Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide  11m11 minutes ago

    This is super-important for #NDP in current context, since dbl-long writ still operates on same indiv contrib limits, so need *new* donors.

     0 retweets0 favorites Reply Retweet FavoriteMore

  2. Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide  12m12 minutes ago

    What I find interesting is that the #NDP's Q2 donor count beats nearly all quarterly #CPC donor counts except elxn qtrs and the rare Q4.

    2 retweets2 favoritesReply Retweet2 Favorite2More

  3. Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide  13m13 minutes ago

    On the other hand, the #CPC has rarely fallen *below* that NDP fundraising benchmark, though it has occasionally since 2011.

    0 retweets0 favoritesReply Retweet FavoriteMore

  1. Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide  17m17 minutes ago

    The #LPC has only beaten the #NDP's fundraising benchmark 3 times recently: 2006-Q4, 2013-Q4, 2014-Q4. And has never beaten donor count.

BREAKING: #NDP Q2 fundraising numbers are in. They're huge - & we want you to be the first to know. #cdnpoli #elxn42  https://amp.twimg.com/v/43dd5332-708d-4000-ab95-964e4d774648 …

  1.  4 retweets1 favoriteReply Retweet4 Favorite1More
  2. Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide  35m35 minutes ago

    McGrath is right. The $4.5M Q2 figure is 50% or so higher than #NDP raised in 2011-Q2 and 48.3K donor count is over 50% higher than 2014-Q4.

  Pundits' Guide retweetedNDP_HQ ‏@NDP_HQ  1h1 hour ago

Sean in Ottawa

JeffWells wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Maybe some are too filled with visions of victory dancing in their heads to remember who we are.

 

Could be. There's quite a distance between making life a little more affordable for the middle class and "the Canada of our dreams." Perhaps I wouldn't have been so bothered by this video if either one or the other hadn't been mentioned.

Yes, it was the combination that left me so irritated. This is not my dream. Mine is a lot more comprehensive. 

Made it sound like a CPC or Liberal ad.

NorthReport

More good news for the NDP

NDP raised record $4.5 million in second quarter: campaign director

The NDP raised nearly $4.5 million in the second quarter, more than any other quarter in its history, according to new numbers released by the party.

In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, NDP national campaign director Anne McGrath revealed the fundraising numbers one day ahead of Elections Canada’s quarterly financial reports for each federal party.

McGrath said the party raised $4,491,938 in the second quarter, compared to $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2015. She added that more than 48,000 people donated to the party this quarter, another record-breaking number for the party.

“Because of that extraordinary grassroots effort, we are closing the gap with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. Today’s numbers prove that momentum for change is growing,” said McGrath in the one-minute video.


http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ndp-raised-record-4-5-million-in-second-q...

mark_alfred

Great news.

NorthReport

CBC, which is part of the Liberal media complex, is concerned that the latest Harper attack ad will not damage Mulcair. 

Some you win and some you lose, eh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmmSV1jtK3s

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  2h2 hours ago

Prime minister not an entry-level job, and Mulcair passes the test

8 retweets4 favoritesReply Retweet8 Favorite4More

 

NorthReport
NorthReport
Pondering

Now that was hilarious.

NorthReport

Unfortunately that's how you win elections by staying on script.  Frown

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Unfortunately that's how you win elections by staying on script.  Frown

Part of the problem for me lies in the formula approach to dirty politics -- much of it US republican by design. There are simply no rules to the nastiness. I'll compare again to the Sponsorship scandal becuase this is the last time there was a government with ethical lapses. First the Sponsorship scandal as bad as it was came nowhere near as close as to what this government has done. And three Liberal MPs were so upset they resigned -- two on this issue and voted against the government -- effectively toppling Martin.

Do you see any sliver of shame from the CPC -- no matter how clearly dirty they became?

The attacks on the democratic process from Harper is compeletely unprecedented in Canadian history. And their MPs are fine with it.

NorthReport

Worthy of reading.

Tom Mulcair: The NDP leader on security, inequality and hope

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/christophermajka/2015/07/tom-mulcair-ndp...

Stockholm

Hey isn't Paul Lynde supposed to be in the middle square?

Pondering

JeffWells wrote:

I felt the same, and was too embarrassed by the video to even share it. Given the title "Closer Than Ever" I expected a second or two callback to the party's heritage. A brief glimpse of Douglas, maybe. It's supposedly pitched to folks already onboard, right? I think "Closer Than Ever" begs for a signpost as to how long we've been waiting.

And again with the "middle class." I understand, though don't care for, the jargon to a broader audience. But repeating it, and repeating it, to core supporters makes me wonder whether HQ knows who we are, and why we're New Democrats.

The French version is superior, IMO.

I think it would be more accurate to say "who you were" rather than "who you are".  This is the New NDP which is as center left as the Liberals are. Clues are disassociating from socialism instead of emphasizing that medicare is socialist, refusing to allow a vote on marijuana legalization, strong support for Israel, pledge not to touch personal income taxes and pledge to run a balanced budget.

The NDP has become a middle class party. Since Jack Layton and 2005 the primary purpose of the NDP is to win as many seats as possible.

NorthReport

Harper skipping Flora MacDonald’s funeral suggests party rift, pundit says

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/harper-skipping-flora-ma...

Sean in Ottawa

The key issue is the demographics. If the young people cannot be convinced to vote then Harper has a chance. And this is where this election is going to turn.

The NDP probably should consider investing at least something into a campaign to get the younger vote that prefers them -- to actually get out and vote.

An ad putting out any data that shows that Harper only got his majority becuase the 18-24 year old voters only voted at 38%.  Is part of it.

A specific youth platform should be prepared and released -- giving the reasons the youth should get out and vote for the NDP -- including:

- environment

- economic and social sustainability and opportunity

- jobs

- inequality

- daycare (the 18-24 group are the generation that will actually get the most benefit as they become parents)

- education

- transit (more youth use it than any other age

NDP national office -- if ANY of you are on this site -- prepare a YOUTH PLATFORM -- release it on a microsite, put it on youtube get it out there. If you cannot speak directly to this generation they will not come out and vote for you and if they do not, Harper will win. You don't need new policies -- you just need to pakage these in a direct appeal to young voters. Not a lot of effort to have a specific youth platform and promote it.

Of course I would call the NDP national office if they answered their phone but they don't -- Fucking stupid -- the party going into the election disconnected from the outside not even answering the phone. Having ideas to help the NDP is almost useless as there is no indication that they are listening or even have a mechanism to listen to what grass roots people are saying.

and no-- senidng them emails when they do not answer the phone does not give any confidence that they read them. This is why a phone call means something -- you know someone heard you and that person if well trained, can have the judgement to know what needs to be passed up the chain.

Let's be clear if the NDP lose this election -- this is why. The election is there to win.

 

NorthReport

The Liberals always campaign on the left and govern on the right, and hopefully the NDP will do the opposite. 

----

5,600

Pages

Topic locked