Latest polling thread Aug 21 2015

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MegB
Latest polling thread Aug 21 2015

Continued from here.

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josh
NorthReport

Aug 21 '15 

Just updated with the latest Forum poll showing phenomenal results for Mulcair & the NPD in Quebec 

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Aug 21 '15 - 

NDP achieving record support in Quebec, holding lead nationally, new polls showThe NDP leads the race nationally with 34 per cent support, with the Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual dead heat, a new Forum Research polls

The New Democratic Party is registering record support from Quebecers while maintaining a comfortable lead across the country, a pair of new public opinion polls show.

A CROP poll of Quebec voters, done exclusively for La Presse, suggests that, with 47 per cent support in the province, Thomas Mulcair’s party could exceed its surprising 2011 election haul of 103 seats, 59 of which were in Quebec.


http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/21/ndp-achieving-re...

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Aug 20 '15 -

CROP poll added to the Quebec  Regionals showing amazin' support for the NPD in Quebec

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Aug 18 '15 -

Just updated with the regionals for a new poll showing a significant NDP lead over 2nd place Cons, and Libs languishing behind in 3rd place.

NDP now leads in BC, Ontario, and Quebec, and the NDP is now second everywhere else.

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https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

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Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Pollsters Polling

4 Canadawide Non-Pollsters such as Aggregators Polling - Always remember: GarbageIin = Garbage Out

5 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

6 Regional Pollsters Polling

7 Canadawide Leadership Polling

8 Regional Leadership Polling

9 Political Trends Seats

10 Political Trends Popular Vote

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1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

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2 Latest polling details:

Intentions de vote fédéral au Québec: le NPD écrase la concurrence 

NPD - 47%

Libs - 20%

BQ - 16%

Cons - 13%

 

NDP increases lead, Libs continue to fade.

NDP / 35%, Up 3%

Cons / 29%, Unchanged

Libs / 26%, Down 1%

http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/


-------------------

 

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 21 '15 / Forum / 34% / 29% / 28% 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 35% / 29% / 26% / 3% / 6%

Aug 14 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 32% / 29% / 5% / 5%

Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%

Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% -  Conservative media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%,  Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% - 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% - 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

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4 Canadawide Non-Pollsters such as Aggregators Polling - Always remember: GarbageIin = Garbage Out

Date / Source / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ/ /Grns

Aug 21 '15 / CBC / 34% / 29% / 28% / 4% / 5%

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5 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

6 Regional Polling


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 22% / 60% / 14%

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Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 36% / 18% / 45%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

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Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 34% / 32% / 24% / 9%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

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Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

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Regional Polling MB/SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 26% / 47% / 24% / 

--------------------------------


 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 13 '15 / Insightrix / 35% / 39% / 21%

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Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 32% / 30% / 30% /

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

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Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / CROP /  47% / 13% / 20% / 16%

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 47% / 13% / 20% / 13%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

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Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

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7 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

 

 

8 Regional Leadership Polling

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9 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

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10 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

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Please post latest polling - thanks. 

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100

 

Pondering

Crop - La Presse Poll

20% - no idea which party is in power

32% - under 35 years cannot name governing party

8% - think Pierre Karl Peladeau leads the Bloc

Surprised

socialdemocrati...

People are uninformed. It doesn't mean they're stupid. It means they've decided there are better things to do with their time. And if/when they vote, it will be large issues like "who can stop Harper" or "who will stand up to the surveillance state", or a broad sense of "values". They are completely unaware of the daily political noise, and that makes them smarter than us in some ways.

Sean in Ottawa

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

People are uninformed. It doesn't mean they're stupid. It means they've decided there are better things to do with their time. And if/when they vote, it will be large issues like "who can stop Harper" or "who will stand up to the surveillance state", or a broad sense of "values". They are completely unaware of the daily political noise, and that makes them smarter than us in some ways.

I think this is a dangerous level of disengagement.

The parties are as a whole doing a poor job of engaging the public.

For all the angst about young people not voting there remains not a lot that addresses this generation directly with the attempts coming across as less than an afterthought in some cases, and "speaking at" rather than "engaging with" in others.

Political parties have not figured out how to talk to voters particularly the younger generation. The volume of commentary on stuff that matters little is part of it-- the refusal to speak clearly and directly and without so much spin that the delivery is confused is another. The parties do well trying to hurt each other but do not use the tools they have to effectively promote any vision.

The media itself is not doing a great job in terms of raising up and examining the impacts of what the parties are saying-- in part becuase the media is spending so much time spinning to promote their preferred parties.

Many of the party policies do not speak in significant ways to large groups of people. All the parties have gone into this previously Conservative habit of micro targeting.

The over focus on polls over substance has led to little understanding of the differences between parties. Even the websites that say they will help people decide are somewhat okay at left-right splits between Conservatives and everyone else but they are downright incompetent in sorting among the opposition parties. This is partly the failure of the parties themselves to distinguish their policies and partly a failure of reporting those differences. (According to Isidewith you can agree over 90% with the NDP, Greens, Liberals and Communists -- clearly they are asking the wrong questions.)

We hear we have stark choices but really when it comes to policy, people see a difference between the Conservatives and the rest of the field, but not much between the other parties.

Different approaches to jobs, public transit, education, taxation, healthcare, trade deals, labour regulation, corporate control of the economy, resources, even foreign policy are difficult to find and on closer look often come down to little more than spin.

Sure I have a favorite party but I cannot say that it is light years away from the others on very much or that it is taking the risk of being different on much at all.

What exactly are we wanting people to be informed about? -- beyond CPC bad and this cacophany of similar sounding alternatives?

When the highlight of the last debate between the NDP and Liberals was a discussion of an approach to a hypothetical question about a non-existant referendum vote rather than ANYTHING that has to do with the severe difficulty many of are finding ourselves in, and the real worry from many about what comes next, I ask: are these guys all inarticulate, out of touch or what?

So the NDP, so far, has provided in my view a poor campaign that looks fantastic in light of the dismal absolutely crap campaigns of the Conservatives and the Liberals. The problem for the NDP is that a poor campaign will not engage in the higher turnout many conisder essential for an NDP victory. If the NDP do not want to let the middle aged white guys -- who always vote -- decide the next government -- they better start speaking in ways other people can relate to. There is a reason why many Canadians react to the politicians like they are speaking in tongues thrashing on the floor -- they may as well be if you are looking for substance.

I believe in voting and the individual responsibility to research who is best to vote for. But I also believe in the responsibility of the political parties, not only to have policies that people can relate to, but to share those in ways that are accessible, not full of BS, and are proportionate to their entire campaigns. Don't expect people who are not engaged to wade through craploads of unimportant pandering, spin, and pettiness to find the gems of differences voters are looking for. Make the campaigns focus on things that matter and you will get attention.

I have long said that politicians keep talking when they have nothing to say. If they shut up and thought of something important to say and then said it, they would get coverage on something people are interested in. Instead they seek limelight and then waste it with garbage. Most of the parties are hiding significant parts of their plans becuase they don't have the guts to debate them in detail -- while they propose small changes as if they are meaningful -- while spending even more time looking for micro scandals to hilight their micro policies for their micro target markets.

socialdemocrati...

The parties and candidates can only do so much. You can see what the excitement of a figure like Jack Layton can do for politics, or the flipside, the controversies of Stephen Harper. But at best, they're worth a bit of extra turnout in a highly politicized elections. Something like proportional representation could help too, because now you might feel that your vote would actually accomplish something. And even then, I wouldn't presume that improving the way we elect MPs would help things by more than a few points of turnout.

Fact is, our political system is behind even the choices we have as consumers, let alone internet users. For a decade, we've been able to vote for things like the American Idol in almost real time. That's so unbelievably disappointing, but it's not just the product of marketing and rabid consumerism. It's also about technology and responsibility. An American TV show has given better and more frequent opportunities for the public to voice their opinion, and that's a huge failure on the part of our system of government. A little more direct democracy and technology could do wonders for our political system, and is probably going to be a requirement as "millenials" start getting into positions of power.

Until that happens, I don't fully blame people for tuning out. 

Misfit Misfit's picture

Yeah but, election dirt is fun...especially when it is Harper squirming on live TV. Yes, where is the public transit, affordable housing funding commitments, etc. no one seems to be talking yet. However, this is a very long campaign, and the opposition parties are likely waiting until school starts and many oeople will start to engage more in following the election.

NorthReport

CROP is the gold standard for polling in Quebec and actually the reason CROP was initially formed was because English pollsters from the ROC like Toronto, etc, didn't have a clue how to properly do a poll in Quebec.

 

So the rumours about the possibility of the NPD winning 70 or so seats out of 78 in Quebec may be more than just rumours. If so, then there is a possibility that Trudeau might even lose his seat.

 

NorthReport
mark_alfred

It was right around the debate that the NDP and Cons numbers dipped a bit, and the Libs numbers rose a bit.  Things seem to be returning back.  But hopefully Mulcair will do better in the next debate.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

CROP is the gold standard for polling in Quebec and actually the reason CROP was initially formed was because English pollsters from the ROC like Toronto, etc, didn't have a clue how to properly do a poll in Quebec.

 

So the rumours about the possibility of the NPD winning 70 or so seats out of 78 in Quebec may be more than just rumours. If so, then there is a possibility that Trudeau might even lose his seat.

 

Using the CROP poll, Papineau is #73 of 78 (followed in order by St.Leonard, Beauce, St.Laurent, Megantic, Mont-Royal)

NorthReport

Mulcair-led NDP are doing exceptionally well considering all the mainstream right wing Liberal and Conservative mainstream media are against them

Folks need to stop focusing on the election fog and all the accompanying noise and just encourage voters to support the politica party that best represents their interests

NorthReport

&

knownothing knownothing's picture

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

CROP is the gold standard for polling in Quebec and actually the reason CROP was initially formed was because English pollsters from the ROC like Toronto, etc, didn't have a clue how to properly do a poll in Quebec.

 

So the rumours about the possibility of the NPD winning 70 or so seats out of 78 in Quebec may be more than just rumours. If so, then there is a possibility that Trudeau might even lose his seat.

 

Using the CROP poll, Papineau is #73 of 78 (followed in order by St.Leonard, Beauce, St.Laurent, Megantic, Mont-Royal)

In 2011 The Libs took 37% and the NDP took 29%.

Only thing is...the NDP don't have a candidate in Papineau as theirs had to step down due to sovereigntist comments.

If Mulcair can recruit a star candidate Trudeau could conceivably lose and the Liberals would be in big trouble in the future.

Sean in Ottawa

knownothing wrote:

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

CROP is the gold standard for polling in Quebec and actually the reason CROP was initially formed was because English pollsters from the ROC like Toronto, etc, didn't have a clue how to properly do a poll in Quebec.

 

So the rumours about the possibility of the NPD winning 70 or so seats out of 78 in Quebec may be more than just rumours. If so, then there is a possibility that Trudeau might even lose his seat.

 

Using the CROP poll, Papineau is #73 of 78 (followed in order by St.Leonard, Beauce, St.Laurent, Megantic, Mont-Royal)

In 2011 The Libs took 37% and the NDP took 29%.

Only thing is...the NDP don't have a candidate in Papineau as theirs had to step down due to sovereigntist comments.

If Mulcair can recruit a star candidate Trudeau could conceivably lose and the Liberals would be in big trouble in the future.

Actually they might be in more trouble if Trudeau wins

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Trudeau will retain his seat

adma

bekayne wrote:
Using the CROP poll, Papineau is #73 of 78 (followed in order by St.Leonard, Beauce, St.Laurent, Megantic, Mont-Royal)

Btw/no incumbent and the train-disaster aftermath, I'd demote Megantic.

NorthReport

Is the question "Can the NPD defeat the Cons in Mégantic-L'Érable"?

And the answer is that it will be challenging but isn't that what politics is all about! 

Jean-François Delisle devient candidat pour le NPD

http://www.lanouvelle.net/Actualites/Politique/2015-08-14/article-424644...

 

NorthReport

How much does Quebec love Thomas Mulcair?

A lot, it seems. A new poll puts his NDP miles ahead. Bad news for the Tories and even worse for Trudeau’s Liberals.

The big splash today comes from La Presse, which published a poll suggesting Tom Mulcair might actually be a proper heir apparent to Jack Layton—in Quebec, anyway. Conducted by the Montreal-based firm CROP, the poll suggests Mulcair’s NDP has 47 per cent of voter support in the province—and 51 per cent of its Francophone voters support the party. To put that in perspective, that equals the party’s high-water mark in Quebec under Layton (in the rose-coloured months after the 2011 election) and four points higher than the party scored in the election itself, when the party won a breakthrough 59 seats.

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The poll arguably augurs worst for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in Quebec. Some 41 per cent of Quebecers believe Mulcair would make the best prime minister, which is more than triple Trudeau’s own score. The Liberals stand at 20 per cent—a decrease of 19 points from its high point roughly a year ago, according to poll aggregator ThreeHundredEight.com. What, exactly, the issue here is can be difficult to pinpoint, because it could be a number of factors. As I wrote last year, there has been considerable upheaval within the Quebec wing of the party, with many longtime organizers unhappy with what they say is a top-down, Ontario-centric structure that stifles the party’s traditional Francophone voice.

The party also supported Bill C-51, the Conservative’s anti-terrorism legislation. Initially popular in Quebec—the Bloc Québécois considered voting for it—Bill C-51 lost its lustre in Quebec as time wore on. By March, less than two months after its first reading in Parliament, an EKOS poll suggested three out of four Quebecers were against the legislation. Finally, there is Trudeau’s pointed stand on the Clarity Act, which he brought up unprompted during the recent Maclean’s National Leaders Debate. Trudeau is dead-set against a simple majority to separate Quebec (or any province) from the rest of Canada. This has never sat well with Quebec’s intelligentsia. Perhaps it is the same for the voting hoi polloi.

 

 

 

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/how-much-does-quebec-love-mulcair/

NorthReport

Le NPD pourrait (presque) balayer le Québec

 

Balayer = sweep

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Attacks A Sign Of 'Desperation': Mulcair

Thomas Mulcair

 

sherpa-finn

Since the CARP constitency is primarily better-off retired people, I would have thought this result of their internal polling would be a little worrying to the Libs and Cons....  #OldFogiesUnite

 

Stockholm

Not opnly that but CARP is an exclusively anglophone organization so this is a poll of retired people excluding Quebec. If they included the 25% of seniors who are Quebecers - NDP support would be much higher

sherpa-finn wrote:

Since the CARP constitency is primarily better-off retired people, I would have thought this result of their internal polling would be a little worrying to the Libs and Cons....  #OldFogiesUnite

 

NorthReport

s-f

Do you have a link? Thanks.

sherpa-finn wrote:

Since the CARP constitency is primarily better-off retired people, I would have thought this result of their internal polling would be a little worrying to the Libs and Cons....  #OldFogiesUnite

 

mark_alfred

link  The electoral preference is at near the end of this poll.

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  11h11 hours ago

I think the bigger factor than leadnow are polls like this one @poneilinOttawa @keithbaldrey

Embedded image permalink

 

bekayne
Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

So is Nanos saying the NDP have taken a massive tumble and he Libs are in second, the NDP in third?

mark_alfred

Seems that Lib and Cons have 30%, and NDP has 29%.  I'm not sure how previous Nanos polls were, so I don't know if this is significantly different or not.  I'm not sure if Nanos ever had the NDP out in front like some of the others.  Regardless, seems the NDP are down in Ontario in this one, and not nearly as out in front in Quebec or BC as other polls have shown.

nicky

Nanos is out of line with every other poll because it combines of rolling weekly sample of 250. It is therefore always out of date..

mark_alfred

nicky wrote:

Nanos is out of line with every other poll because it combines of rolling weekly sample of 250. It is therefore always out of date..

Thanks.  Good to hear.  I'll wait for the other polls then.

bekayne

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So is Nanos saying the NDP have taken a massive tumble and he Libs are in second, the NDP in third?

No, the Conservatives took a mini-tumble, which caused the Liberals to rise.

Sean in Ottawa

bekayne wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So is Nanos saying the NDP have taken a massive tumble and he Libs are in second, the NDP in third?

No, the Conservatives took a mini-tumble, which caused the Liberals to rise.

Not saying I agree with the poll as accurate -- but this cannot be true

A first place party canno move to third due to changes between the second and third -- (all that could happen is it could go to second if one party went far enough ahead of another).

A first place party would ahve to tumble if a movement between second and third could allow it to go from first to third.

That's just math.

That said, this poll is too small to really suggest much.

Northern-54

http://www.insightswest.com/news/british-columbians-moving-away-from-con...

 

The above is a recent poll of British Columbians (significant sample size).

NDP 41%

Liberal 24%

Conservative 22%

Green 12%

Other 1

adma

nicky wrote:

Nanos is out of line with every other poll because it combines of rolling weekly sample of 250. It is therefore always out of date..

 

But the trouble here is: the NDP has been going *down* (esp. in  Ontario) with each passing week  That means, *currently*, with Nanos, they must be in their *teens* in Ontario.

Which, somehow, doesn't compute.  And makes me wonder whether Nanos is going back to old tricks and massaging the Liberal numbers.  (Though IIRC at their 2011-campaign-period "nadir", Layton might have been flirting with single digits in Ontario according to Nanos.  So, there you go.)

mark_alfred

Yeah, the Ontario numbers in the Nanos poll are worrying.

NorthReport

Mulcair NDP has gained 35% on the Trudeau Libs and 30% on the Harper Cons since May 19. Not too shabby!!! Smile 

The CARP poll states:

Most members expect the Conservatives to win the next election (46%), followed by the NDP (33%) and the Liberals (21%). The NDP is rapidly increasing their performance on this measure and may overtake the Conservatives.


Which party do you EXPECT to win the next election?

Party / May 19 / June 4 / June 16 / June 30 / July 14 / Aug 14 / Change

NDP / 11% / 17% / 18% / 27% / 32% / 33%/ Up 22%

Cons / 54% / 48% / 51% / 46% / 44%/  46% / Down 8% 

Libs / 34% / 32% / 30% / 26% / 23% / 21% / Down 13%

 

http://www.carp.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Accessibility-Report-JUly-...

NorthReport

Aug 25

Just updated with Leadership Polling

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Aug 25

Just updated with Insights West Regional Poll for BC

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https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Pollsters Polling

4 Canadawide Non-Pollsters such as Aggregators, etc. Polling - Always remember: Garbage In = Garbage Out

5 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

6 Regional Pollsters Polling

7 Canadawide Leadership Polling

8 Regional Leadership Polling

9 Political Trends Seats

10 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:

NDP - 41%

Cons - 22%

Libs - 24%

Grns - 12%

British Columbians Moving Away from Conservatives in Canadian Campaign

PR Image - Thomas Mulcair by Laurel L. Russwurm

The lead for the federal New Democrats is consistent across both genders and three age groups. The Conservatives currently get their best numbers among voters aged 55 and over (29%, with the NDP at 41%), while the Liberals do best among voters aged 35-54 (27%, with the NDP at 42%).

In Metro Vancouver, the New Democrats are clearly ahead with 43%, followed by the Liberals with 25% and the Conservatives with 23%. On Vancouver Island, support for the Greens has increased markedly—from 20% in May to 32% in August—placing the party just seven points behind the NDP (39%).

----------------------------------------

When asked who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, Mulcair is now in first place with 27% (+5), followed by Trudeau with 20% (+1), Harper with 19% (-8) and May with 9% (+3).

http://www.insightswest.com/news/british-columbians-moving-away-from-con...

-------------------------

 

 

3 Canadawide Pollster Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

 

Aug 21 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 30% / 30% 

Aug 19 '15 / Forum / 34% / 29% / 28% 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 35% / 29% / 26% / 3% / 6%

Aug 14 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 32% / 29% / 5% / 5%

Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%

Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% -  Conservative media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%,  Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% - 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% - 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

 

4 Canadawide Non-Pollster Polling such as Aggregators , etc. - Always remember: GarbageIin = Garbage Out

Date / Source / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ/ /Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19%

 

Aug 25 '15 / CBC / 32% / 29% / 28% / 4% / 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 21 '15 / CBC / 34% / 29% / 28% / 4% / 5% - Liberal media complex

------------------------------------------


 

5 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

6 Regional Polling


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 22% / 60% / 14%

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 36% / 18% / 45%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

 

Aug 25 '15 / Insights West / 41% / 22% / 24% / 12%

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 34% / 32% / 24% / 9%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

--------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB/SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 26% / 47% / 24% / 

--------------------------------


 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 13 '15 / Insightrix / 35% / 39% / 21%

---------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 32% / 30% / 30% /

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

---------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / CROP /  47% / 13% / 20% / 16%

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 47% / 13% / 20% / 13%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

--------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------

 

 

7 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau


Aug 19 '15 / Forum / 29% / 24% / 21%

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

 

 

8 Regional Leadership Polling

---------------

 

 

9 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


10 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

 

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

1,600 (+1,500)

nicky

Today's Angus Reid: NDP 36, Con 32, Lib 23. In Quebec its NDP 51!!!, triple the Liberals. Trudeau may well lose Papineau with these numbers

josh

Would think NDP would take at least 70 seats there with those numbers.

bekayne

nicky wrote:
Today's Angus Reid: NDP 36, Con 32, Lib 23. In Quebec its NDP 51!!!, triple the Liberals. Trudeau may well lose Papineau with these numbers

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2015.08.26_Fed_New.pdf

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  8h8 hours ago

The #NDP #s in @angusreidorg poll all the more stunning in that Mulroney's 58 seats came in 3-way split and #elexn42 will be 4-way in QC

 1 retweet0 favoritesReplyRetweet 1Favorite More

 

NorthReport

Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid are the two most accurate Canadawide federal pollsters by far based on the results of the two previous elections.


The NDP has gained 12% against the Cons and 25% against the Libs, while the Greens have lost 1/3 of their support

Party / Sep 19 / Dec 13 / Jun 7 / Aug 24 / Change

NDP / 22% / 22% / 36% / 36% / Up 14%

Cons / 30% / 34% / 31% / 32% / Up 2%

Libs / 36% / 34% / 23% / 23% / Down 11%

BQ / 4% / 4% / 5% / 4% / Unchanged

Grns / 6% / 5% / 5% / 4% / Down 2%

 


 

adma

The discrepancy btw/ Angus Reid and Nanos makes me wonder whether something's up.  (With whom?  You decide.)

 

Re Quebec, looks like it's headed to a "UK SNP finish"--so with one survivor apiece, it'd be Plamondon, Max Bernier, and...whom?  Justin?  Stephane Dion?  Housefather?

NorthReport

Aug 26: - 

Just updated with Angus Reid Canadawide and Regional  Polling

-------------------------------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Pollsters Polling

4 Canadawide Non-Pollsters such as Aggregators, etc. Polling - Always remember: Garbage In = Garbage Out

5 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

6 Regional Pollsters Polling

7 Canadawide Leadership Polling

8 Regional Leadership Polling

9 Political Trends Seats

10 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:


NDP / 36%

Cons / 32%

Libs / 23%

BQ / 4%

Grns / 4%

 

Election 2015: NDP leads, but CPC’s base is most solid

August 26, 2015 – As the 2015 general election in Canada closes out the first month of campaigning, the New Democratic Party (NDP) carries momentum – and the lead – among likely voters.

 

http://angusreid.org/federal-election-2015-august26/

 

----------------------------------------

 

 

3 Canadawide Pollster Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 36% / 32% / 23%

Aug 21 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 30% / 30% 

Aug 19 '15 / Forum / 34% / 29% / 28% 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 35% / 29% / 26% / 3% / 6%

Aug 14 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 32% / 29% / 5% / 5%

Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%

Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% -  Conservative media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%,  Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% - 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% - 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

 

4 Canadawide Non-Pollster Polling such as Aggregators , etc. - Always remember: GarbageIin = Garbage Out

Date / Source / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ/ /Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19%

 

Aug 25 '15 / CBC / 32% / 29% / 28% / 4% / 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 21 '15 / CBC / 34% / 29% / 28% / 4% / 5% - Liberal media complex

------------------------------------------


 

5 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

6 Regional Polling


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 21% / 58% / 13%

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 22% / 60% / 14%

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 30% / 25% / 39%

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 36% / 18% / 45%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

 

Aug 26 '15 / Angus Reid / 37% / 32% / 22%

Aug 25 '15 / Insights West / 41% / 22% / 24% / 12%

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 34% / 32% / 24% / 9%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

--------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB/SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 26% / 47% / 24% / 

--------------------------------


 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '125 / ASngus reid / 31% / 48% / 18%

Aug 13 '15 / Insightrix / 35% / 39% / 21%

---------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 24% / 44% / 27%

----------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 33% / 35% / 28%

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 32% / 30% / 30% /

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

---------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 51% / 14% / 17% / 17%

Aug 17 '15 / CROP /  47% / 13% / 20% / 16%

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 47% / 13% / 20% / 13%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

--------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------

 

 

7 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau


Aug 19 '15 / Forum / 29% / 24% / 21%

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

 

 

8 Regional Leadership Polling

---------------

 

 

9 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


10 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

 

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

1,900 (+300)

 

NorthReport

Election 2015: NDP leads, but CPC’s base is most solid

http://angusreid.org/federal-election-2015-august26/

bekayne

adma wrote:

The discrepancy btw/ Angus Reid and Nanos makes me wonder whether something's up.  (With whom?  You decide.)

It's hard to get a read on Reid, as this is only the 2nd poll they've done in 2015

Jacob Two-Two

Good to see these numbers from AR, who are always more accurate than other pollsters. So far my predictions are holding. Liberals keep sinking while NDP rise. Cons hold strong and wind up the official opposition.

nicky
josh

nicky wrote:
forum NDP 40 lib 30 con 23 !,,,,
">http://t.thestar.com/#/article/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-r...

Don't believe it. Especially Conservatives at 23.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I would like to believe it,it would be excellent but I agree with josh.

But on the bright side...

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/economy-poll-half-of-canadians-say-harper...

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