Latest polling thread Feb. 25th, 2015

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MegB
Latest polling thread Feb. 25th, 2015

Continued from here.

Issues Pages: 
terrytowel

Just in case adma misses my response. adma wrote

Quote:

And a checkmate compounded by how P-HP was *not* one of the two.  (Essentially, it was a matter of heavy Tory support in Ward 13--which encompasses Swansea, Bloor West et al--cancelling out the Chow advantage in Ward 14.)

So, now that you know, why did you repeat that non-truth in the Federal NDP Candidate thread?

Did I say she won Parkdale-High Park? I said

"But the NDP can take comfort that Olivia Chow dominated Parkdale-High Park in the mayor's race."

She pulled in strong numbers and came within striking distance of winning that riding.

Dominating means "have a commanding influence on" as voters in that area rallied to Chow, but she still came up short.

Which bodes well for the NDP in that riding.

Debater

For what it's worth, Parkdale-High Park is currently projected to go back to the Liberals by Eric Grenier's model:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p2HLQA38dkA/VOypxdSzfSI/AAAAAAAAVWU/6N6tETy7s6...

Rokossovsky

Lol.

josh
Debater

Well now, a new Ipsos poll!  And it shows the Liberals overtaking the Conservatives, a 3-point gain from last month's Ipsos poll.

Since North Report has told us that Ipsos is the best pollster in Canada, these new numbers must indicate Liberal momentum. Wink

LPC 34% (+3)

CPC 33% (-2)

NDP 23% (-1)

BQ 6%

GPC 3%

-

Nationally, the Liberals are up three points since January, while the Tories are down two points, the poll says.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1850238/conservatives-liberals-virtually-tied-...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

It's still a Liberal scam.

Debater

Now that North Report has boxed himself in, I admit I'm going to enjoy watching him try to spin this one. Wink

terrytowel

Debater wrote:

Well now, a new Ipsos poll!  And it shows the Liberals overtaking the Conservatives, a 3-point gain from last month's Ipsos poll.

Poll numbers are irrelevant, it is the seat count that matters.

That is where the Cons have the upper hand. So while the Libs could win the popular vote, the Cons would will in the seat count.

Unless the Cons dip below 20% (which seems unlikely) we are stuck with them until Harper decides to step down.

Which could be in another 10 years.

Jacob Two-Two

But you, on the other hand, have maintained that Ipsos is unreliable, just like I have. So logically you agree with me that this poll is proof of nothing. Right?

Debater

It's not proof of anything.  But the fact that a pollster which usually leans Conservative is showing a Liberal increase and a Conservative decrease could tell us that the Conservative terrorism bump has subsided for now.

terrytowel

Again not the popular vote that matters, it is the seat count

Debater

And the Ipsos numbers on Quebec are kind of interesting, because they seem to back up CROP (& Abacus) that there isn't a major surge of Conservative support in Quebec yet.  So that could be discouraging for Con supporters.

And in Quebec, it’s a three-way race between the Liberals (31 per cent), the NDP (27 per cent) and the Bloc Quebecois (26 per cent). The Tories trail at 15 per cent, the poll says.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1850238/conservatives-liberals-virtually-tied-...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

terrytowel wrote:

Debater wrote:

Well now, a new Ipsos poll!  And it shows the Liberals overtaking the Conservatives, a 3-point gain from last month's Ipsos poll.

Poll numbers are irrelevant, it is the seat count that matters.

That is where the Cons have the upper hand. So while the Libs could win the popular vote, the Cons would will in the seat count.

Unless the Cons dip below 20% (which seems unlikely) we are stuck with them until Harper decides to step down.

Which could be in another 10 years.

There's the spin you were expecting,Debater.

ajaykumar

Regarding Quebec numbers, I think that after PKP is elected Leader, there will be  a  bump in the BQ support. Liberals will take Montreal, Cons will win in Quebec city,  NDP and BQ will each win half of the remaining ridings. 

welder welder's picture

Debater wrote:

Now that North Report has boxed himself in, I admit I'm going to enjoy watching him try to spin this one. Wink

 

Baghdad Bob should be along shortly....Laughing

welder welder's picture

Debater wrote:

It's not proof of anything.  But the fact that a pollster which usually leans Conservative is showing a Liberal increase and a Conservative decrease could tell us that the Conservative terrorism bump has subsided for now.

 

Cool!!!

 

Now on to the economy...

Rokossovsky

It's amazing how much time people have to spend over discussions of "leads" well within the margin of error, and poll to poll results that also demonstrate changes within the margin of error.

Only trend lines over time count for anything, and in this case the major shift over the last 6 months has been a major decline in the polled preference numbers for the Liberal Party, matched with an increase in Conservative vote intention, the NDP maintains its solid position in third without much change, since Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party.

So much bandwidth wasted discussing trivia in the intervening period.

Debater

Actually, the major trendline over the past 2 years has been the decline in the NDP vote under Mulcair.

Mulcair was polling in the 30's in 1st place in Spring 2012, ahead of Harper for a few months.  Then by Fall 2012 he had fallen into 2nd place.

When Trudeau took over the Liberal leadership in 2013, the NDP fell to 3rd place into the high 20's.

Then in 2014 the NDP slipped a little more down into the mid-20's.

Now as we move through 2015 the NDP has slipped down to around a 20% National average.

Therefore, the most consistent trendline has been the the major decline of the NDP since Mulcair took over the NDP in March 2012, 3 years ago.  From 30-35% down to about 20%.

I know you are a big Mulcair fan (as you made clear in your exchange with Brian Topp a few months ago), but the NDP's numbers have gone down a great deal under his tenure, thus far.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The main thing is that NDP numbers are holding over 20, which is a historically high level for the party since about 1988. This means that both the Liberals and the Conservatives are denied a majority, which is a good thing.

The left-liberal vote is not going back to Justin Trudeau, which is what he needs if he is going to overtake the Conservatives. After Chretien, Martin, Dion, Ignatieff, Rae, and now Trudeau, the left-liberal voter has no more reason to trust the Liberal Party.

The other problem is that Justin Trudeau has become the issue, and not Harper. People are now just as determined to vote Conservative to block Trudeau as they are to vote Liberal to block Harper, which explains why they are equal in the polls.

Had the Liberals picked a more educated and less egotistical-type personality who did not grow up in economic and government privilege, they would not be rubbing so many people the wrong way.

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

Actually, the major trendline over the past 2 years has been the decline in the NDP vote under Mulcair.

Mulcair was polling in the 30's in 1st place in Spring 2012, ahead of Harper for a few months.  Then by Fall 2012 he had fallen into 2nd place.

That is irrelevant. What is at issue is the competition between the parties, when they both had the leaders that they will run with in the next election. Not surprisingly that NDP took a hit when the Liberals found a leader who had name recognition.

What has transpired since then is the collapse the right wing Liberal vote, and Harper's remergence of the Conservatives, as a contender. That is the important part.

As it stands, all they have managed to do is act as a spoiler for a consolidated anti-Harper vote. Sad.

Centrist

montrealer58 wrote:
The left-liberal vote is not going back to Justin Trudeau

Don`t know about that. Today`s Ipsos poll does not seem to indicate that from what I see. Unfortunately. Caveat. Ipsos is an opt-in online panel pollster and I put the least weight on this polling methodology. Why? They tend to have recruiting problems with their panels, esp. here in BC. Leads to understating the `right-wing` vote. Both Ipsos and ARS corroborating polls in BC confirmed that during the May, 2013 BC election.

But when I see today`s Ipsos poll and the BC results, I see things may be more problematic (as Cons likely higher):

  • British Columbia: Conservatives lead at 39 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 34 per cent, and the NDP at 21 per cent;

If that result held up on election day, the NDP would only see 2 or 3 seats of BC`s 42 seats in 2015. Not saying that will happen and campaigns mean everything. In any event, the Cons and Libs have had radio ads out here in Metro Vancouver periodically for months. Nothing from Tom or the NDP. Why? Just don`t understand it. A countering folksy radio ad by Tom could do wonders.

What is also even more problematic is this story that I read from the TorStar from yesterday. The NDP needs to have this resolved, one way or another, prior to October. Period. Seriously.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/02/24/alleged-ndp-misuse-of-taxp...

      Marco C

      Online polling isn't that big of a deal, they're at least as unrealable as IVR and telephone polling.

       

      Eric at threehundredeight.com quickly talked about how they work; the just of it is that online polls have hundreds of thousands of participants whose answers are radomly taken and formed into representative samples.

       

      So in the case of this poll Ipsos randomly selected a smaple of 2,650 out of mayby 200,000-300,000 opt-in panalists, the odds are you might have some people trying to rig the poll but then your pool is in the hundreds of thousands you should be ok. That being said yes there are huge methodology problems with all canadain pollsters over the last dacade and I don't buy anything they are selling.

       

      E-day is the only poll that's correct (minues the fraud) and the campaign will mater.

      Debater

      Rokossovsky wrote:

      Debater wrote:

      Actually, the major trendline over the past 2 years has been the decline in the NDP vote under Mulcair.

      Mulcair was polling in the 30's in 1st place in Spring 2012, ahead of Harper for a few months.  Then by Fall 2012 he had fallen into 2nd place.

      That is irrelevant. What is at issue is the competition between the parties, when they both had the leaders that they will run with in the next election. Not surprisingly that NDP took a hit when the Liberals found a leader who had name recognition.

      What has transpired since then is the collapse the right wing Liberal vote, and Harper's remergence of the Conservatives, as a contender. That is the important part.

      As it stands, all they have managed to do is act as a spoiler for a consolidated anti-Harper vote. Sad.

      Are you serious?

      If it wasn't for Justin Trudeau & the Liberals, Harper would probably already be on his way to another Majority.

      In 2011, even with a huge wave and a popular leader, and Liberal support below 19%, the NDP was not able to beat the Conservatives, or even keep them to a Minority.

      Since the NDP can't seem to win any province except Quebec and is even fading in Quebec now, there is no evidence that the NDP can beat Harper.

      And yet you are trying to blame Justin Trudeau & the Liberals as being a spolier that is helping Harper?

      Mulcair has never had staying power.  I know you like him, but that is the truth.  He was only ahead in the polls for a few months in 2012.  He got a leadership convention bump but long before Trudeau became leader he had fallen behind Harper again.

      Since then Mulcair has not been able to stay competitive with Harper the way Trudeau & the Liberals have.  That's not to say that there are any guarantees for the Trudeau Liberals either, but at least they have a history of being competitive with the Conservatives.

      Stockholm

      Here is an interesting teaser from Ekos (details behind a pay wall)

      http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/02/27/the-ekos-poll-the-new-democrats-are-b...

      "It’s well short of a wave, but the NDP seems to be the only thing moving in an otherwise frozen polling landscape.

      Whether this new Orange Hiccup will develop into anything more impressive remains to be seen but the New Democrats have risen from the depths of the high teens to 22 points. And there's evidence they may be doing a bit better than that; our live interviewer test shows that they receive more of the Bloc vote than is recorded by our automated polling system."

      The only thing that has happened since the last poll has been a ton of good publicity for Mulcair over his brave opposition to Bill C51

       

      Debater

      But it's at odds with yesterday's Ipsos Reid poll showing the Liberals going up & the NDP dropping.

      So who knows which one is accurate?  EKOS probably had NDP too low to begin with since it's unlikely NDP was down in the teens where EKOS had them.

      Still, at least it shows EKOS isn't anti-NDP like some people have claimed in the past.  They are giving them a positive score tonight.

      Brachina

      Stockholm wrote:

      Here is an interesting teaser from Ekos (details behind a pay wall)

      http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/02/27/the-ekos-poll-the-new-democrats-are-b...

      "It’s well short of a wave, but the NDP seems to be the only thing moving in an otherwise frozen polling landscape.

      Whether this new Orange Hiccup will develop into anything more impressive remains to be seen but the New Democrats have risen from the depths of the high teens to 22 points. And there's evidence they may be doing a bit better than that; our live interviewer test shows that they receive more of the Bloc vote than is recorded by our automated polling system."

      The only thing that has happened since the last poll has been a ton of good publicity for Mulcair over his brave opposition to Bill C51

       

       

       I wonder if the Bloc  is seeing the same thing as this poll and the live interviews and that is why they unleashed that vile ad now?

      Debater

      The NDP has been on the decline in Québec in most polls, so I don't think it's something the BQ just came up with this week.  They've probably been planning to go after the NDP for a while and just decided to use the latest controversy involving Muslim women as an opening.

      While EKOS is showing an NDP increase in Québec, it probably had the NDP too low to begin with.  These numbers bring the NDP more in line with some of the other pollsters.

      Debater

      Full EKOS poll now available:

      http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_february_27_2...

      Some unusual regional numbers (eg. Libs leading in Sask), so who knows how accurate EKOS is right now.

      Rokossovsky

      If it's not a rogue poll, then its a very good poll for the NDP, since Ekos, always, always, always deflates the NDP numbers.

      Stockholm

      The Quebec numbers give the NDP a significant lead in Quebec with 29% to the Liberals 24% and the Tories at 21% and the BQ at 18%...since the Liberals get almost unanimous support from the 20% of Quebecers who are non-francophones, those numbers suggest that among francophone Quebecers the liberals are likely in single digits. A popular vote split like that would deliver the NDP at least 40 seats in Quebec.

      Debater

      Stockholm wrote:

      The Quebec numbers give the NDP a significant lead in Quebec with 29% to the Liberals 24% and the Tories at 21% and the BQ at 18%...since the Liberals get almost unanimous support from the 20% of Quebecers who are non-francophones, those numbers suggest that among francophone Quebecers the liberals are likely in single digits. A popular vote split like that would deliver the NDP at least 40 seats in Quebec.

      LOL!  Are you kidding?  This wins the award for the most outrageous statement made about a poll so far in 2015. Surprised

      There was just a CROP poll out last week putting the Liberals only 3 points behind the NDP among Francophones!!

      Francophones

      NPD - 32%

      LPC - 29%

      BQ - 20% 

      CPC - 15%

      http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201502/...

      Stockholm

      I said that IF the Ekos poll is right and the Liberals are at 24% in Quebec as a whole, once you take away the monolithic support for boy Justin among Anglo and allophone québécois there isn't much left among francophones.

      Btw another thing that may be starting to hurt the federal Liberals in Quebec is the growing unpopularity of the Couillard govt with its saved cuts and scandals...when charest was hated it also caused some collateral damage to the federal Liberals

      Debater

      1.  CROP obviously knows Québec better than EKOS, so the former is likely to have more reliable numbers.  And Eric Grenier wrote an article on the Quebec polls this week saying the EKOS numbers for the Liberals are probably off.

      2.  Justin is not a boy.  He now has 2 boys of his own.

      3.  Couillard still leads the polls in Quebec.  Sure there are always some risks when one party is in power provincially.  But Couillard is still fairly popular compared to Selinger in Manitoba.

      Brachina

       Debater were not talking chronologically being a boy, we're talking about maturity and experience.

      Stockholm

      I respect CROP a lot as a pollster but they were in field before Trudeau got raked over the goals for his incomprehensible weak kneed position on Bill C 51 and maybe that is causing francophone quebecers to drop him like a hot potato

      Northern-54

      Latest EKOS: 

       

      Not sure if reported elsewhere

       

      Liberal 31.9

      Conservative 31.1

      NDP 22.1

      Green 7.5

      Bloc 4.5

      Other 2.9

       

      http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/02/27/the-ekos-poll-the-new-democrats-are-b...

       

      Pondering

      Brachina wrote:

       Debater were not talking chronologically being a boy, we're talking about maturity and experience.

      And I think it is very insulting to teachers to suggest that a boy can do their job.

      Debater

      Stockholm wrote:
      I respect CROP a lot as a pollster but they were in field before Trudeau got raked over the goals for his incomprehensible weak kneed position on Bill C 51 and maybe that is causing francophone quebecers to drop him like a hot potato

      One of the contradictions in that argument is the fact that the anti-terror bill is actually very popular in Québec.

      And EKOS's numbers have been at odds with what not just CROP, but other polls have shown in Québec, as well.

      Debater

      ABACUS

      March 3, 2015

      Newfoundland & Labrador

      LIBERAL - 58%

      CONSERVATIVE - 23%

      NDP - 16%

      ----

      Provincial and Federal Liberals have a big lead in Newfoundland and Labrador

      Federally, the Liberal Party of Canada holds a commanding 35-point lead over the Conservative Party in Newfoundland and Labrador among committed voters.  58% of committed voters said they would vote Liberal if an election was held at the time of survey, compared with 23% for the Conservatives and 16% for the NDP.

      ---

      http://abacusdata.ca/provincial-and-federal-liberals-have-a-big-lead-in-...

      http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-...

      NorthReport
      Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

      Debater wrote:

      ABACUS

      March 3, 2015

      Newfoundland & Labrador

      LIBERAL - 58%

      CONSERVATIVE - 23%

      NDP - 16%

      ----

      Provincial and Federal Liberals have a big lead in Newfoundland and Labrador

      Federally, the Liberal Party of Canada holds a commanding 35-point lead over the Conservative Party in Newfoundland and Labrador among committed voters.  58% of committed voters said they would vote Liberal if an election was held at the time of survey, compared with 23% for the Conservatives and 16% for the NDP.

      ---

      http://abacusdata.ca/provincial-and-federal-liberals-have-a-big-lead-in-...

      http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-...

      Yes, Debater we all know Martimers have been duped by your party.

      mark_alfred

      NorthReport wrote:

      So at week's end this is where we are at:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

      Hmm.  Cons and Libs tied for first at low 30s, NDP stuck at 20.  I still think it will change by election time.

      NorthReport

      Well if we take a look at what appear to be Canada's most accurate pollsters from the 2 previous elections:

      Pollster / Total Difference

      Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

      Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

      Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

      EKOS / 11%

      Nanos / 11%

       

      And then look at their most recent polling for the NDP we see:

      Ipsos Reid - 23%

      Angus Reid - 22%

      Harris /Decima - 23% 

      EKOS - 22%

      Nanos - 23%

       

      Not too shabby! Smile

       

       

       

      mark_alfred

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-mulcair-top-harper-in-approval-r...

      The link above is an analysis of poll results for what people think of the three main leaders.  Harper scores lowest.  Trudeau second.  Mulcair first.  Meaning, a higher proportion of people when asked say that they feel Mulcair is doing a good job than those who say likewise for either Trudeau or Harper.  This is overall -- of course in the regions it varies. 

      Harper and, to a lesser extent, Trudeau, have a relatively even split between approve and disapprove, whereas Mulcair doesn't, meaning he has more room for growth.  Trudeau also has some room for growth, whereas Harper (according to this analysis) doesn't. 

      BUT, when the option of having a neutral impression of the leaders is given (IE, approve, disapprove, or neutral), then Mulcair scores much higher here, meaning people just don't really have any impression of him at all.  So, that will be a challenge for the NDP. 

      It's sobering that the NDP are still in third.  Mulcair currently outscores the NDP, but that could change, I think.  The NDP have the greatest room for growth, according to the analysis on this site

      nicky

      New poll from Abacus onleadership attributes. Tom Mulcair ahead on most factors:

       

      Experienced         Harper 74% Mulcair 64% Trudeau 40%
      Modern        Trudeau 79% Mulcair 58% Harper 50%
      Future            Trudeau 76% Mulcair 65% Harper 52%
      New Ideas        Trudeau 74% Mulcair 60% Harper 49%
      Even tempered    Trudeau 71% Mulcair 67% Harper 64%
      Good guy        Mulcair 78% Trudeau 78% Harper 62%
      Competent         Mulcair 74% Trudeau 64% Harper 64%
      Good ideas         Mulcair 69% Trudeau 64% Harper 55%.
      Trustworthy         Mulcair 68% Trudeau 61% Harper 52%
      Thinks of others    Mulcair 63% Trudeau 54% Harper 44% 

      Significantly Trudeau's lowest score, after "experience", is "thinks of others."

      http://us6.campaign-archive1.com/?u=a3a66dd8178a73f2959b28910&id=816c0f6...

      mark_alfred

      Re: post #45

      Mulcair thinks of others, Harper is experienced, and Trudeau represents change.

      Hmm. Seems Mulcair is perceived as the "nice guy", which really is a cast-away comment when you don't know what else to say. Unfortunately, nice guys often finish last.

      nicky

      I think it is an encouraging breakdown for Tom.

      Two other categories that were buried and which I did not post above:

      Brilliant Mulcair 69% Trudeau 65% Harper 61% 

      Reasonable: Mulcair 62%  Harper 60%  Trudeau 50% 

      I'm somewhat baffled that so many people think Justin is brilliant. Sort of takes the glitter out of Tom winning in that category.

      Nevertheless, the poll shows that the "angry Tom" stuff is not widely perceived and that Tom leads in the important categories of brains, competence, trustworthiness, and empathy.

      Although Trudeau leads in "new ideas" Tom is ahead in "good ideas."

      jjuares

      mark_alfred wrote:

      Re: post #45

      Mulcair thinks of others, Harper is experienced, and Trudeau represents change.

      Hmm. Seems Mulcair is perceived as the "nice guy", which really is a cast-away comment when you don't know what else to say. Unfortunately, nice guys often finish last.


      Yes, if this poll is accurate Trudeau represents modern and change. That is worrying.

      Pondering

      40% and above on anything the poll considers bad, but as Harper has proven it's not how many people think you're a jerk, it's what your potential supporters think. On that score all the leaders do fine in every category. Harper is well over his base on all positive attributes. Thinks of others is still at 44%, young at heart is at 46%.He doesn't need more than that. But, overall impression does sway swing voters.

      It would have been interesting to see if they had been pitted directly against one another.

      The radical versus reasonable number is very amusing: Harper-40%, Trudeau 50%, and Mulcair 40%. I can only guess that is based on marijuana legalization.

      Radical, self-centered, bad ideas, past, not trustworthy, old fashioned, and old ideas. It gives me hope.

      Sean in Ottawa

      Pondering wrote:

      40% and above on anything the poll considers bad, but as Harper has proven it's not how many people think you're a jerk, it's what your potential supporters think. On that score all the leaders do fine in every category. Harper is well over his base on all positive attributes. Thinks of others is still at 44%, young at heart is at 46%.He doesn't need more than that. But, overall impression does sway swing voters.

      It would have been interesting to see if they had been pitted directly against one another.

      The radical versus reasonable number is very amusing: Harper-40%, Trudeau 50%, and Mulcair 40%. I can only guess that is based on marijuana legalization.

      Radical, self-centered, bad ideas, past, not trustworthy, old fashioned, and old ideas. It gives me hope.

       

      Looks like the methodology of this poll is seriously flawed.

      Take some examples: the choice between whether Harper is serious or fun. The responses add up to 101% (with rounding). Apparently people are offered a scale or choice from one to the next. What would you do? I don't think he is either fun or serious.

      How about reasonable or radical? I don't think he is either. Even his nastiness is hardly particularly innovative.

      What about good and bad ideas? Good for whom? Is good something that will succeed or something that should succeed?

      I don't think Trudeau or Harper are brilliant but nor do I think either lacks intelligence. Other characteristics like how articulate, judgment, ability to perceive, political skills etc. are all more relevant than a simple measure of intelligence.

      Harper clearly is not failing personally in many respects but his government by my perspective is. Which do I pick?

      How much do you value competence in the person who is trying to destroy all you believe in? Would you say that is a good trait?

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