Latest polling thread Feb. 25th, 2015

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Debater

jjuares wrote:
mark_alfred wrote:

Re: post #45

Mulcair thinks of others, Harper is experienced, and Trudeau represents change.

Hmm. Seems Mulcair is perceived as the "nice guy", which really is a cast-away comment when you don't know what else to say. Unfortunately, nice guys often finish last.

Yes, if this poll is accurate Trudeau represents modern and change. That is worrying.

No, that's a good thing.  You want Harper beaten, yes?  Then it's good that Trudeau represents the future to many voters.

Mulcair is 60 years old, and will be 61 in October 2015.  He's older than Stephen Harper.  It's hard for Mulcair to represent change when he's been in politics for longer than the PM has.

NorthReport

What an absurd comment.

Debater

On the contrary, it is backed up by the ABACUS poll on impressions of the leaders that someone quoted above.

Modern        Trudeau 79% Mulcair 58% Harper 50%

Future         Trudeau 76% Mulcair 65% Harper 52%

New Ideas    Trudeau 74% Mulcair 60% Harper 49%

Mulcair is 21 points behind on "Modern", 11 points behind on "Future", and 14 points behind on "New Ideas".

---

Btw, the latest EKOS poll which came out on Friday March 6 showed the NDP at 19.9%.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/03/06/the-ekos-poll-canadians-divided-on-se...

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Modern, new ideas, innovative, etc. appeal to youth. The challenge for Trudeau's supporters is to convert that youth support into votes.

Sean in Ottawa

ageism is not modern

NorthReport

 

Bingo!  

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

ageism is not modern

Debater

montrealer58 wrote:

Modern, new ideas, innovative, etc. appeal to youth. The challenge for Trudeau's supporters is to convert that youth support into votes.

Not really, because Trudeau doesn't rely on "youth support" to the extent that you mean.  Trudeau & the Liberals are showing strength amongst all age groups right now (although Harper's focus on terrorism has given him a lead in the 65+ category).  While Trudeau does have some youth supporters, that's not the most important demographic.

And thus far, it has been Mulcair that has had a challenge getting votes at the ballot box.  Mulcair will need to change his mobilization strategy in the general election as opposed to the low turnout the NDP got during the by-elections.

adma

Jack Layton was also 60/61 and in politics for a lot longer than Harper, remember.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Age is not going to win or lose the election. I think that's the last thing voters care about.

NorthReport

Not a poll, but there seems to be more and letters like this cropping up all over the place now.

Mulcair stance on terror bill will be his finest hour

http://www.nanaimodailynews.com/mulcair-stance-on-terror-bill-will-be-hi...

Sean in Ottawa

Young people tend to idealism.

We have a leader who says he voted for a law he says is a bad law for political considerations.

Young people often pride themselves on having great bullshit detectors.

I can't see that being a hit among youth.

The question of course is will they get to the ballot box or tune out.

 

 

Debater

People can also detect when a leader claims to be both a liberal & a new democrat at the same time.

People can also detect when a leader says one thing in French to BQ voters  and another thing in English outside Quebec.

People can also detect when a leader pretends to be in contention to form government when he's really not.

Etc.

NorthReport

Well said.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Young people tend to idealism.

We have a leader who says he voted for a law he says is a bad law for political considerations.

Young people often pride themselves on having great bullshit detectors.

I can't see that being a hit among youth.

The question of course is will they get to the ballot box or tune out.

 

 

Debater

New CRA poll - Atlantic Canada - March 11, 2015

Federal Liberals Continue to Hold Comfortable Lead over Other Parties

Liberals 56% (+1)

Conservatives 26% (NC)

NDP 14% (-2)

Greens 4% (+1)

---

Don Mills of CRA Polling

Latest CRA federal voting intentions now aviailable on our website. Results continue to show #Liberals and #Trudeau with big lead.

https://twitter.com/DonMillsCRA/status/575658451239567360

http://cra.ca/federal-liberals-continue-to-hold-comfortable-lead-over-ot...

http://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/15-1-Federal-Press-Release-1567...

NorthReport

Opinion polling for the 42nd Canadian federal election

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

welder welder's picture

Debater wrote:

People can also detect when a leader claims to be both a liberal & a new democrat at the same time.

People can also detect when a leader says one thing in French to BQ voters  and another thing in English outside Quebec.

People can also detect when a leader pretends to be in contention to form government when he's really not.

Etc.

Or conversely,let's hope Canadians realize a leader(and a party) that pretends to be a social democrats and "progressive" but supports:

Current levels of corporate taxation

CETA

FIPA

Keystone XL

The status quo in The Senate

Eve Adams

Going along with The Harper Government* on Bill C-51

Using the CPP as a slush fund to finance infrastructure projects (yippee Triple P's)

Debater

Okay, we'll get back to that debate later. 

Let's try to keep this thread focused on polling, which is the title of this thread. Smile

Debater

Interesting chart from CRA on Page 2 of their poll showing the changes in Atlantic Canada since the 2011 Election:

http://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/15-1-Federal-Press-Release-1567...

---

Other Details:

Sample: 1501 Atlantic Canadians

Interview Dates: February 9 to March 2, 2015

---

Newfoundland & Labrador

Liberals: 64%

Cons: 22%

NDP: 14%

-

Nova Scotia

Liberals: 60%

Cons: 22%

NDP: 13%

-

New Brunswick

Liberals: 44%

Cons: 34%

NDP: 16%

-

Prince Edward Island

Liberals: 59%

Cons: 20%

NDP: 18%

NorthReport

Still showing the NDP with mid-twenties support. Smile

Opinion polling for the 42nd Canadian federal election

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

 

Debater

NDP has a current National Average of 21%.

So it's not in the mid-twenties yet.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

Debater

Federal Greens campaigning for B.C. wins

National polls shows 21% of B.C. voters now support the Green Party of Canada.

Mar 9th, 2015

Excerpt:

---

Later, laughing and glad-handing supporters, Elizabeth May, 60, demonstrated the energy of a youthful campaigner. She sees a modest breakthrough for the party in the 2015 federal election, and a new national poll suggests she might be right.

EKOS researchers found 21 per cent of British Columbians now support the Greens, with polling between February 25 to March 3.  It’s a result up from the week before.

“In my view the Green Party has a very good chance of electing multiple MPs in B.C.,” said EKOS pollster Frank Graves in Ottawa on Sunday. 

"If they can rise even a couple more points they could surprise a lot of people,” he added.

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/national-observer/federal-greens-campai...

Sean in Ottawa

Debater wrote:

NDP has a current National Average of 21%.

So it's not in the mid-twenties yet.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

I agree. Especially with the qualifier "yet."

NorthReport

A voter’s guide to political polling in this 2015 federal election year

Who pays the piper?

Most media polls these days, especially before the election campaign starts, are done for free by polling companies as a promotional or marketing exercise. The days of wealthy media companies paying for political polling are almost gone — which may, in part, explain the shift toward lower cost methodologies and less reliable results.

"A lot of it is like asking the dog to fetch the stick you're going to beat it with," pollster Frank Graves of Ekos Research says of offering freebie political surveys.

Largely overlooked, says Carleton's Adams, is that the paying clients of polling companies tend to be corporations and government, which raises the potential for "massive" conflicts of interest.

Accurate political polling can embellish a pollster's reputation "but that's not their only interest," says Adams. "They have other interests and they have more direct commercial interests."

Just as news consumers want to know if an academic's chair was endowed by a big corporate interest, or whether a journalist was paid handsomely for industry appearances, he says, so pollsters should be revealing their client base

So do I trust political polls or not?

Pollsters will howl but research scientists without a dog in the hunt are adamant only truly randomized surveys predictably and repeatedly measure public opinion accurately.

Most polls don't do that, but go ahead and sample them — and feel free to pour on a few grains of salt.


http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/03/14/a-voters-guide-to-political-...

NorthReport
NorthReport

I wonder how many Canadian polling firms would get an "F" with this kind of analysis

Canada needs something similiar to this.

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each firm’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, a firm’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race, and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

Slumberjack

This is an unofficial poll, but I know that when I talk to my Mom by telephone I hear slightly more hissing between her teeth and more god damns when she is referring to Harper than when she is referring to the other guys. But she will often say, 'SJ you know they're all the god damned same.' Politically speaking the apple doesn't roll very far in our family.

NorthReport

Stability in the polls, or Liberal decline?

At the moment, the only pollster giving us regular updates on the political situation in Canada is EKOS Research. The firm is reporting every week on Fridays via iPolitics. This far out from the election, the week-to-week changes have been usually quite marginal. But this may be masking a wider trend that is not a good one for the Liberals.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/03/stability-in-polls-or-liberal-d...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Hopefully Trudeau will have the brains to cooperate with the NDP.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201503/...

Mulcair is showing some real leadership.

NorthReport

So in the following possible scenario, realistically what would happen:

2015 Election Results 

Cons - 140 seats

NDP - 115 seats

Libs - 80 seats

Other - 3 seats

Total - 338 seats

(170 seats required for majority)

 

alan smithee wrote:

Hopefully Trudeau will have the brains to cooperate with the NDP.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201503/...

Mulcair is showing some real leadership.

Brachina

 My favourite part was "Justin Trudeau's proirty is Justin Trudeau" Anither reason Justin isn't fit to be Prime Minister

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

NorthReport wrote:

So in the following possible scenario, realistically what would happen:

2015 Election Results 

Cons - 140 seats

NDP - 115 seats

Libs - 80 seats

Other - 3 seats

Total - 338 seats

(170 seats required for majority)

 

alan smithee wrote:

Hopefully Trudeau will have the brains to cooperate with the NDP.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201503/...

Mulcair is showing some real leadership.

Which realistically would reduce the Conservatives to the Opposition if the Liberals and NDP allied together like Mulcair has proposed.

NorthReport

Well the Liberals bowed out last time, and look how long Harper has been in power now.

But that was then, and this is 2015, so what has to happen in the above scenario to remove the Conservative government after this election?

What would be the specific steps:

What would Harper do to try and stay in power? How long can he hold off?

What would Mulcair do to oust the Cons?

And finally what would Trudeau do?

 

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Mulcair has extended the olive branch to the Liberals so the ball is in their court.

He recognizes that the priority is to defeat the Conservatives. Having the 2 parties allied has been something I've been waiting for.

If it happens...BYe Bye Harpo and let the celebrations begin.

nicky

New CROP poll today on Federal voting intentions

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201503/...

NDP has regained narrow overall lead
Liberal down 6% among Francophones
trudeau down 8% since December as best PM
Cons have strong lead in Quebec City Region

Debater

Couillard's austerity obsession has not just hurt the provincial Liberals, but probably the federal Liberals as well.  It is causing an erosion in support.

Still, the Liberals are at twice the level of support that they had in 2011 and the NDP is down about a dozen points, so while the NDP has the advantage, it's not as overwhelming as it was 4 years ago at this time.

The other thing to keep an eye on is those Conservative numbers in Quebec City.  If they keep a big lead there, that will mean a gain in CPC seats and a loss in NDP seats.

That will affect the overall total as well.

Debater

CROP

NPD - 30%

PLC - 29%

PCC - 18%

BQ - 18%

-

Francophones

NPD - 33%

PLC - 23%

BQ - 21%

PCC - 18%

-

https://o.twimg.com/2/proxy.jpg?t=HBhTaHR0cDovL3BsdXMubGFwcmVzc2UuY2Evc2...

nicky

So now that The Liberals are on the skids in Quebec, Debater, I guess you must be advocating voting NDP there to keep the Conservatives out?

nicky

debater, Bellevance's article says that Trudeau's preformance as leader, as well as the austerity progrm of the provincial Liberals, is what is hurting the federal Liberals in Quebec, causing a 4% drop in a month.

It is noteworthy that Trudeau is now running behind his party in the province that knows him best. 21% as best PM vs 29% indicating a present Liberal voting intention.

Political scientists often say say leadership approval is a leading indicator of voting intention. You Liberals may yet regret that you chose such a vacuous leader.

Stockholm

The challenge for Trudeau in Quebec is that in English Canada a lot of people still desperately want to believe in the Trudeau fantasy - so they remain in denial about what a goof he is and they make excuses for his abysmal performance because they still live in this fantasy world where he is some second coming of his father. In francophone Quebec, the Trudeau name is more controversial and there is little or no reservoir of goodwill for Trudeau - if anything Quebecers deep down want him to fail so they can get in the kick at his father they never got a chance to give when Trudeau quit in 1984

NorthReport

Precisely.

alan smithee wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

So in the following possible scenario, realistically what would happen:

2015 Election Results 

Cons - 140 seats

NDP - 115 seats

Libs - 80 seats

Other - 3 seats

Total - 338 seats

(170 seats required for majority)

 

alan smithee wrote:

Hopefully Trudeau will have the brains to cooperate with the NDP.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201503/...

Mulcair is showing some real leadership.

Which realistically would reduce the Conservatives to the Opposition if the Liberals and NDP allied together like Mulcair has proposed.

NorthReport

It's great to have all these Canadawide polls published in one place thanks to wikipedia, but Canadians may well be misled about what is really going on in Quebec, because CROP, Quebec's most accurate pollster, is not included in these stats.

I may have missed it, but I have not seen the CROP poll mentioned anywhere in the English media, at least so far, and although have not checked, my hunch is, it is not even mentioned at 308.

Also if other pollsters publish stats that are at odds with CROP in their Quebec polling, what does that say about the accuracy of their polling Canadawide? 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

 

CROP today

CROP - La Province de Quebec  Meilleur Premier Ministre

 

Chef / Oct 20 '14 / Nov 17 '14 / Dec 15 '14 / Feb 15 '15 / Mar 21 '15 / Change 

Harper / 12% / 13% / 12% / 15% / 16% / Haut 4%

Mulcair / 22% / 29% / ?% / 25% / 29% / Haut 7%

Trudeau / 28% / 22% / ?% / 23% / 21% / Bas 7%

 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201503/...

 

 

 

nicky

Does anyone have a link to the full CROP poll? Not just a media report.

NorthReport

Here is their website:

 

http://www.crop.ca/fr/

 

nicky wrote:

Does anyone have a link to the full CROP poll? Not just a media report.

nicky

Thanks NR but I can't find anything about today's poll on that site.

Debater

LEGER

Liberals - 35

Conservatives - 34

NDP - 20

---

Harper and Trudeau tied in latest poll

Monday, March 23, 2015

The Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck in the latest poll, according to Sebastien Dallaire of the Leger polling firm, who shared the numbers on a visit to CTV Montreal Monday.

According to Dallaire, his company has polled Liberal support at 35 percent, one point ahead of the fast-rising Conservatives who now have 34 percent. The NDP is lagging well behind with 20 percent.

The virtual tie between the Harper Conservatives and the Liberals is the first time that the two rivals have been tied since Justin Trudeau became leader.

In Quebec, the New Democratic Party leads with 30 percent, while the Liberals are not far behind with 28 percent support and the Conservatives have 22 percent. The Bloc Quebecois is well behind with 15 percent support. Thomas Mulcair is seen as the strongest leader by Quebecers, according to the survey. 

In Ontario it's a two-way race between Liberals,with 40 percent and the Conservatives with 38 percent. The NDP has 20 percent support.

In British Columbia the Liberals lead with 32 percent versus 29 percent for the Conservatives and 20 percent for the NDP. The Green Party has 16 percent support in B.C.

---

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/harper-and-trudeau-tied-in-latest-poll-1.2293444

josh

The worst news in the poll is the Cons at 22% in Quebec. They'll at least double their seat total in the province at that number.

Debater

Yes, although the Cons are at 18% in CROP, so it's hard to know which poll has the correct number.  Maybe it's 20%?

What Sebastien Dallaire of Leger said is that the NDP is holding onto a core vote in Québec, but the bad news for the NDP is they are not much of a factor in the overall National race.

Sean in Ottawa

Debater wrote:

Yes, although the Cons are at 18% in CROP, so it's hard to know which poll has the correct number.  Maybe it's 20%?

What Sebastien Dallaire of Leger said is that the NDP is holding onto a core vote in Québec, but the bad news for the NDP is they are not much of a factor in the overall National race.

So far.

Debater

Hasn't Mulcair himself basically conceded that the NDP is unlikley to win the next election? (on its own anyway).

Why else keep floating the coalition idea this year?

Usually parties only do that if they don't think they can win outright.  Why do so 6 months before an election?

Marco C

Debater wrote:

Hasn't Mulcair himself basically conceded that the NDP is unlikley to win the next election? (on its own anyway).

Why else keep floating the coalition idea this year?

Usually parties only do that if they don't think they can win outright.  Why do so 6 months before an election?

 

What a load of horse hockey.

 

The reason the NDP is floating the idea now, 6 months in advance, is because that last time we tried to remove the CPC in a minority parliament your oh so great Liberals ran away from that deal. Between the Tory lies about a coalitions and Liberal cowardice the public need to be told in clear terms that a coalition is on the table.

Progressives need to know that if the polls are saying minority they need to make sure the NDP have the strongest hand in parliament.

Everyone else needs to know that if you want to beat the Conservatives you don't have to vote Liberal.

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