Latest polling thread Feb. 25th, 2015

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Nervous Debater? YES, YOU ARE!!!!

Sean in Ottawa

Debater wrote:

Hasn't Mulcair himself basically conceded that the NDP is unlikley to win the next election? (on its own anyway).

Why else keep floating the coalition idea this year?

Usually parties only do that if they don't think they can win outright.  Why do so 6 months before an election?

No. He hasn't he is saying that it is quite POSSIBLE that a coalition may be required to remove Harper. He did not concede the leadership role in that either.

Stop making stuff up.

Debater

Marco C wrote:

Progressives need to know that if the polls are saying minority they need to make sure the NDP have the strongest hand in parliament.

Everyone else needs to know that if you want to beat the Conservatives you don't have to vote Liberal.

Polls?!

Oh come on.  This is the same argument we heard 4 years ago.  In 2011, Jack Layton himself told people "You can vote NDP and you don't have to worry about a Conservative Majority".  That turned out to be totally wrong!  The Conservatives won a Majority.

We can't tell what the outcome is going to be just based on polls.  Harper may very well win another Majority.  He's already in Minority territory as it is. 

This may be the NDP talking point for this year, but that doesn't mean we have to accept it or that it is accurate.

takeitslowly

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Debater wrote:

Hasn't Mulcair himself basically conceded that the NDP is unlikley to win the next election? (on its own anyway).

Why else keep floating the coalition idea this year?

Usually parties only do that if they don't think they can win outright.  Why do so 6 months before an election?

No. He hasn't he is saying that it is quite POSSIBLE that a coalition may be required to remove Harper. He did not concede the leadership role in that either.

Stop making stuff up.

 

Yup, no way he should concede on anything.  Thomas Mulcair is the most competent candidate running to be PM.

Debater

1.  By raising the coalition issue, Mulcair is essentially acknowleding that the NDP can't win the next election on its own.  It also represents a total turnaround from the position he took 3 years ago when he said the NDP wanted to win outright without any involvement of any other parties.  Sean may feel that this is a mischaracterization of Mulcair, but it's definitely something the press is going to be asking him about more & more.  It's a valid criticism to make of his strategy.

2.  Mulcair actually has very questionable strategic instincts.  He has made a number of blunders since becoming NDP leader.  One of the most obvious was underestimating his principal opponents, something you are never supposed to do in politics.  That's one reason he ended up in 3rd place.  Where's the proof that he is the "most competent" person running for PM?

jjuares

Debater wrote:

Marco C wrote:

Progressives need to know that if the polls are saying minority they need to make sure the NDP have the strongest hand in parliament.

Everyone else needs to know that if you want to beat the Conservatives you don't have to vote Liberal.

Polls?!

Oh come on.  This is the same argument we heard 4 years ago.  In 2011, Jack Layton himself told people "You can vote NDP and you don't have to worry about a Conservative Majority".  That turned out to be totally wrong!  The Conservatives won a Majority..


Well of course, not enough Liberals came over to the NDP to stop Harper. Had enough Liberals believed in the strategic nonsense they were spouting and the need to defeat Harper they would have done so.

Sean in Ottawa

Debater wrote:

1.  By raising the coalition issue, Mulcair is essentially acknowleding that the NDP can't win the next election on its own.  It also represents a total turnaround from the position he took 3 years ago when he said the NDP wanted to win outright without any involvement of any other parties.  Sean may feel that this is a mischaracterization of Mulcair, but it's definitely something the press is going to be asking him about more & more.  It's a valid criticism to make of his strategy.

2.  Mulcair actually has very questionable strategic instincts.  He has made a number of blunders since becoming NDP leader.  One of the most obvious was underestimating his principal opponents, something you are never supposed to do in politics.  That's one reason he ended up in 3rd place.  Where's the proof that he is the "most competent" person running for PM?

1) It is a BS characterization on many levels. Just as much logic as to say that if you take out term life insurance it means an admission you will die during the term? No, it is simply prudent. The NDP are in it to win. Make no mistake.

2) Liberal deflection form that party's inept strategies that are becoming clearer and clearer these days.

 

Centrist

Too much partisan bickering on here. Here is the REAL reason:

`Over the past few weeks, Mulcair has repeatedly floated the possibility of forming a coalition with the Grits.

It’s a strategy designed to ward off voters who think they need to vote Liberal in order to avoid another Stephen Harper Conservative government, an NDP strategist said. The message is designed to make potential New Democrat voters more comfortable with the idea of casting a ballot for the NDP, the adviser explained.`

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/03/17/ndp-liberal-coalition-mulcair-tr...

And, I can see, certainly good strategy from the NDP`s perspective.

Jacob Two-Two

Backs the Liberals into a corner, too. Aren't they committed to ending this Conservative government? Given that a minority is the outcome the polls are currently suggesting, why won't they speculate on this scenario? The Liberals don't want give the NDP the credence of calling them a potential partner, but ruling it out exposes their hypocrisy. The truth is they only want Harper gone if they replace him. In any other scenario, they'd just as soon leave him there.

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

1.  By raising the coalition issue, Mulcair is essentially acknowleding that the NDP can't win the next election on its own. 

He is signalling that he and the NDP are reasoned sensible people who can read poll results, just like the rest of Canadians, and that, in the case of a minority government, he is willing to defeat the Conservatives at the earliest possible opportunity -- precisely what the great majority of Canadian want: sensible people who can read and count, and have the will to boot this prick.

Not a preened selfish peacock who is trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes by suggesting he is ready to win power, and that his party is ready to defeat Stephen Harper outright, which it isn't.

wage zombie

Debater wrote:

Hasn't Mulcair himself basically conceded that the NDP is unlikley to win the next election? (on its own anyway).

Why else keep floating the coalition idea this year?

Because it's a vote-getter.  Duh.

Brachina

Debater wrote:

1.  By raising the coalition issue, Mulcair is essentially acknowleding that the NDP can't win the next election on its own.  It also represents a total turnaround from the position he took 3 years ago when he said the NDP wanted to win outright without any involvement of any other parties.  Sean may feel that this is a mischaracterization of Mulcair, but it's definitely something the press is going to be asking him about more & more.  It's a valid criticism to make of his strategy.

2.  Mulcair actually has very questionable strategic instincts.  He has made a number of blunders since becoming NDP leader.  One of the most obvious was underestimating his principal opponents, something you are never supposed to do in politics.  That's one reason he ended up in 3rd place.  Where's the proof that he is the "most competent" person running for PM?

 

 The purpose of talking about the coalition is because its extremely popular idea amoung NDP-Liberal swing voters, Mulcair knows Trudeau is too extreme rightwing to agree, he's using it as a wedge issue against Trudeau and Justin was foolish and arrogant enough to fall into the trap, look at Alan, who has repeated said he's not going to defend the liberals anymore after Trudeau said no, that's the effect Mulcair wanted in Liberal  NDP swing voters.

Rokossovsky

It would really just take one little bubble in NDP support in Quebec at the Liberals expense to state making the NDP look more competitive, and the Liberals less so.

Winston

For those who missed yesterday's Ekos poll here are the numbers:

 

(Sub)sample  C/N/L/B/G

 

Federal  32/23/28/5/9

 

Atlantic  30/18/44/-/6

Québec  20/27/23/20/7

Ontario  37/21/32/-/8

Manitoba  33/20/25/-/20

Saskatchewan  42/26/22/-/6

Alberta  46/20/23/-/6

British Columbia  26/28/27/-/16

 

Men  38/19/27/4/8

Women 26/27/30/6/9

 

18-34  23/28/26/6/14

35-49  32/22/28/6/8

50-64  34/23/31/4/6

> 65  41/19/30/3/5 

Centrist

Winston wrote:

For those who missed yesterday's Ekos poll here are the numbers:

18-34  23/28/26/6/14

35-49  32/22/28/6/8

50-64  34/23/31/4/6

> 65  41/19/30/3/5

With the 18-34 demographic, the NDP would win the 2015 election. Problem is that with the remaining age demographics, not so much. And the 18 - 34 age demographic has the worst voter turn-out while those over 65 have almost triple their turnout.

In any event, Ekos has always been a junk pollster in my books. Do not understand why it is referred to so much in many circles.

Rokossovsky

Ekos reliability seems good in the upper ranges for the main contenders for first and second, but begins to get wonky in the bottom percentiles that is the way it seems to me: Greens usually do way better in the Ekos polls then they do in the final analysis or among competing pollesters.

NorthReport

This election race is far from over but Canada's Official Opposition Leader has had a good couple of weeks. If it continues, as Graves says, then the non-Conservative voters voters will start giving consideration to the NDP as the alternative to the Cons. Not counting the Liberals out of things yet by a long shot, as the Liberals have money, a lot of the media behind them, and the Trudeau name, but at some point we will probably reach a tipping point, and my hunch is voters will start to coalesce around the party they think can best defeat Harper. 

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

This election race is far from over but Canada's Official Opposition Leader has had a good couple of weeks. If it continues, as Graves says, then the non-Conservative voters voters will start giving consideration to the NDP as the alternative to the Cons. Not counting the Liberals out of things yet by a long shot, as the Liberals have money, a lot of the media behind them, and the Trudeau name, but at some point we will probably reach a tipping point, and my hunch is voters will start to coalesce around the party they think can best defeat Harper. 

In my opinion the media has been leaning hard on Trudeau and favoring Mulcair. 

NorthReport

It must be comedy hour again.

For example where is the coverage of the most recent CROP, Abacus and EKOS polls in the English msm?

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

This election race is far from over but Canada's Official Opposition Leader has had a good couple of weeks. If it continues, as Graves says, then the non-Conservative voters voters will start giving consideration to the NDP as the alternative to the Cons. Not counting the Liberals out of things yet by a long shot, as the Liberals have money, a lot of the media behind them, and the Trudeau name, but at some point we will probably reach a tipping point, and my hunch is voters will start to coalesce around the party they think can best defeat Harper. 

In my opinion the media has been leaning hard on Trudeau and favoring Mulcair. 

nicky

Gee it's so unfair Pondering:

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

It must be comedy hour again.

For example where is the coverage of the most recent CROP, Abacus and EKOS polls in the English msm?

I don't see a lot of articles about polls except when the publications themselves ordered them.

Responding in a new thread

http://rabble.ca/babble/rabble-reactions/intellectual-honesty-bias-and-a...

 

Pondering

nicky wrote:

Gee it's so unfair Pondering:

.

And when was that published?

NorthReport

In other words the msp are covering up for the Liberals by not publishing those polls.

Thank you.

nicky

Pondering ponders, "And when was that published?"

Pretty much every day:

 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

In other words the msp are covering up for the Liberals by not publishing those polls.

Media publishes the polls they pay for. Not the polls other media pays for.

Pondering

nicky wrote:

Pondering ponders, "And when was that published?"

Pretty much every day:

 

Really, they print the same cartoon every day. I highly doubt that. 

bekayne

Many media organizations have their own pollster. For example, ipolitics publishes Ekos polls. They don't publish polls from other pollsters. Is that censorship? 

ajaykumar

NDP's position on Iraq and c51 destroys liberals:
According to a latest poll, NDP is on track to win the largest majority in Canadian history. Here's the data:
NDP 88%
CPC 7%
Lpc 3%
GPC 2%.
Elections night headlines preview!
mulcairs orange wave sweeps every seat!
Orangemania on the way! People dance to orange on the streets!
Trudeau resigns after historical defeat!
Mulcairs popularity unprecedented in political history!

Pondering

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Backs the Liberals into a corner, too. Aren't they committed to ending this Conservative government? Given that a minority is the outcome the polls are currently suggesting, why won't they speculate on this scenario? The Liberals don't want give the NDP the credence of calling them a potential partner, but ruling it out exposes their hypocrisy. The truth is they only want Harper gone if they replace him. In any other scenario, they'd just as soon leave him there.

For the same reason Mulcair ruled it out unequivocally a couple of years ago. At least Trudeau was no where near as emphatic as Mulcair was. Trudeau named specific barriers to a coalition. Barriers can be negotiated. Mulcair's position couldn't be, until he "flip-flopped".  

Trudeau is in position to win. Why would he speculate on a coalition if he loses? Competitors have to show confidence in their ability to win not concede possible defeat before the competition has even begun.

Mulcair's notion that people are going Liberal for fear of the Conservatives winning doesn't apply to polls. 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202...

Question: Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister?

Harper 34%

Trudeau 31%

Mulcair 16%

Mulcair doesn't even rank as a second choice. 

The NDP has upped their campaigning significantly since summer. The Liberals have barely begun but you can be sure they are ready to run the moment the election is called. The astounding part is how much support Trudeau has while holding his cards so close to the chest. 

 

NorthReport

You are suggesting news gets censored. Yes of course it does.

But for political polling that is not the way it often works.

Pollsters publish lots of free polls especially around election time hoping to attract customers for their services.

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

In other words the msp are covering up for the Liberals by not publishing those polls.

Media publishes the polls they pay for. Not the polls other media pays for.

wage zombie

Pondering wrote:

The astounding part is how much support Trudeau has while holding his cards so close to the chest. 

NorthReport

The EKOS poll: Liberals slipping as NDP surges

You know as well as the rest of us do that if the EKOS poll was favourable to the Liberals, the CBC, the Toronto Star, 308, etc. would be publicizing it to the hilt.

They did it recently as you well know so why the silence this time?

Hint, hint, they are trying to discourage Canadians from voting for the NDP.

bekayne wrote:

Many media organizations have their own pollster. For example, ipolitics publishes Ekos polls. They don't publish polls from other pollsters. Is that censorship? 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

The EKOS poll: Liberals slipping as NDP surges

You know as well as the rest of us do that if the EKOS poll was favourable to the Liberals, the CBC, the Toronto Star, 308, etc. would be publicizing it to the hilt.

They did it recently as you well know so why the silence this time?

Hint, hint, they are trying to discourage Canadians from voting for the NDP.

bekayne wrote:

Many media organizations have their own pollster. For example, ipolitics publishes Ekos polls. They don't publish polls from other pollsters. Is that censorship? 

A party moving 2% six months before an election is a non-story. If they went up 10%, it would be covered. When the NDP went up in Quebec during the last election, it was certainly covered.

Rokossovsky

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

This election race is far from over but Canada's Official Opposition Leader has had a good couple of weeks. If it continues, as Graves says, then the non-Conservative voters voters will start giving consideration to the NDP as the alternative to the Cons. Not counting the Liberals out of things yet by a long shot, as the Liberals have money, a lot of the media behind them, and the Trudeau name, but at some point we will probably reach a tipping point, and my hunch is voters will start to coalesce around the party they think can best defeat Harper. 

In my opinion the media has been leaning hard on Trudeau and favoring Mulcair. 

Mulcair makes the most of the media he gets, whereas Trudeau squanders his making nearly incomprehensible speeches filled with the kind of wistful high minded sounding appeals to "democratic" values that served Ignatieff so well.

Brachina

 I look forward to Trudeau telling people to rise up, rise up!

terrytowel

Brachina wrote:

 I look forward to Trudeau telling people to rise up, rise up!

He can't do that because that is Jack Layton's song

NorthReport

Mar 24, 2015 - Percentage drop in Liberal support between their zenith and today: 17.5%

Mar 24, 2015 - EKOS Poll showing Liberals at 28.5% support, lowest level of support since Apr 6, 2013

May 22, 2013 - Forum Rearch Poll showing Liberals at their zenith of 44% support

Apr 16, 2013 - Trudeau becomes Liberal Leader

Apr 6, 2013 - Abacus Data Poll showing Liberals with 27% support

 

NorthReport
adma

terrytowel wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 I look forward to Trudeau telling people to rise up, rise up!

He can't do that because that is Jack Layton's song

I think the reference is more to Iggy's well-meaning 2011-campaign quotation of Bruce Springsteen's My City of Ruins--while totally oblivious to how Canadians relate the "Rise Up" musical meme more with the Parachute Club...

ajaykumar

Lpc internal polls are showing a tie with the CPC. This ekos poll is being promoted by right wingers to show the NDP is strong. On the same day ekos came out abacus (fmr sun ) pollstser also showed a tie. BTW ondp was first many times in the polls which explains premier horwath. In Canada's largest province, where govt are formed, only liberals can stop Tories. Evidence.. Even at its strongest NDP won only 22 seats in 2011. Thats 20% of seats. Liberals lost most seats by very small margins.

Pondering

Interesting article. It supports what I have been saying for ages. The Liberals are playing their cards close to the chest. Their numbers will stay soft until they lay out their vision. 

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/john-ivison-w...

The EKOS poll — which puts the Liberals at 28.5%, compared to 31.8% for the Conservatives and 23.2% for the NDP — may be an outlier. An Abacus poll that came out the same day has the Tories and Grits neck and neck, as does the party’s internal polling.

But the trend in all public surveys is the same — a gradual down-tick in support since the terror attacks in Ottawa and Quebec last October.

The EKOS commentary suggested a “lack of clarity as to what the party plans to do for the country and its citizens” may be behind the Liberal slippage. Mr. Trudeau is keeping his detailed policy proposals under wraps until closer to the election — but it means he is left trying to sell concepts, not tax cuts.

.....

The NDP are back in the game and that usually means the Conservatives win by default.

However, it’s early days — we are still nearly seven months from an election.

The Liberals are keeping their policy powder dry, in the hope that tax cuts (and even tax increases for the wealthy) — both likely key components of the platform — boost their support. The anti-terror bill and the mission extension vote will be in the rear-view mirror by then, as voters start to focus on their own economic security.

The Liberals have a plan, and they are likely to stick to it, regardless of how they are buffeted by the polls between now and when the election is called.

But the slip in the polls is a real test of nerve – the first time the divine destiny of the younger Trudeau is being widely, if not openly, questioned by his fellow Liberals.

John's pronouncements concerning the mood of Liberal supporters are questionable. All leaders get some criticism from the rank and file on particular decisions. It doesn't mean the support or confidence in his ability to win is any the less strong. 

 

 

Jacob Two-Two

Pondering wrote:

Interesting article. It supports what I have been saying for ages.

Yeah, the National Post's premier right-wing dittohead supports what you've been saying for ages. Funny that doesn't give you pause for thought, but that's not really your thing, is it?

I do agree that EKOS polls shouldn't be taken seriously and abacus is far more reliable.

NorthReport

Obviously there are serious problems. Maybe some staffing changes could help. Maybe the behind the scenes guy at the top needs to have his wings clipped a bit as the Liberals are definitely stumbling and trending South.

Rokossovsky

Where is the like button?

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Obviously there are serious problems. Maybe some staffing changes could help. 

I don't see any. I've been saying since at least October that Liberals numbers would stay soft because Trudeau is playing his cards close to the chest. He's running his campaign with the same strategy that he won the Brazeau fight with. He is right that people underestimate him and it works to his advantage. 

Rokossovsky

The fact that the Liberals are ahead of the NDP in almost all polls, and you have to plead "underdog" status because "people underestimate" Trudeau speaks volumes. That suggests that people overestimate him.

Jacob Two-Two

Pondering wrote:

He's running his campaign with the same strategy that he won the Brazeau fight with.

I think it's hilarious how Justin supporters keep coming back to his boxing match. Probably because it's the only thing they can point to that looks anything like an accomplishment.

But maybe they're right, and what Canada needs for a leader is a pugilist not a politician. In that spirit I would like to suggest that we award the PM's chair to the great Georges St-Pierre! https://www.facebook.com/georgesstpierre

I think Liberals should be on board with this, given that the only qualifications Justin has is being famous and winning a boxing match. Georges is not just famous in Canada, but is adored around the world. In fact, he's probably the most famous Canadian there is, globally speaking. And as for fighting, GSP has a record of 25 wins and 2 losses against the best martial artists out there, and defended his UFC welterweight title nine consecutive times before retiring from the sport. He is one of the greatest fighters alive. GSPM! GSPM! GSPM!

So what do you say, Liberals? To sweeten the deal, how's this? We have Georges and Justin get into the ring together, and if JT wins I promise I'll vote Liberal in the next election. Because that is a match I would love to see. :D

Rokossovsky

Rokossovsky wrote:

Where is the like button?

Rokossovsky

Rokossovsky wrote:

Where is the like button?

adma

In the context of this thread, *this* is the like button ;-)

http://www.nonstick.com/sounds/Daffy_Duck/ltdd_116.mp3

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