Latest polling thread Feb. 25th, 2015

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mark_alfred

Rokossovsky wrote:

This was also interesting:

 

Shows that Trudeau may not be the saviour of the Libs after all.

Sean in Ottawa

mark_alfred wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

This was also interesting: 

 

Shows that Trudeau may not be the saviour of the Libs after all.

These are snapshots of different times and individual province results are hardly accurate.

Ignatieff got 25.3% in Ontario in the election and Dion got 33.8%. Martin got 39.9%. I won't predict what Trudeau will get as that is still an unknown. It is not news that the Liberal party slid in each of those elections. The question is -- has this been reversed. We really do not have an answer to that. It certainly appreas that Trudeau has reversed this somewhat but how much of a recovery is a guess and whether it will hold through an election another guess.

I don't think that you can presume that becuase the liberal vote fell before those elections it will now. It may or may not.

Brachina

 I think the point is each of these men were seen as saviors of the Liberal Party and were high in the polls, but things change and things can change for Trudeau too, his numbers aren't that impressive right now.

Pondering

Brachina wrote:

 I think the point is each of these men were seen as saviors of the Liberal Party and were high in the polls, but things change and things can change for Trudeau too, his numbers aren't that impressive right now.

None of them were seen as saviors. The Party was split between Rae and Ignatieff which let Dion produce a surprise win. Head honchos backstabbed Dion to get their preferred candidate in, Ignatieff. Trudeau is not a "savior" either. The hope is that a combination between party brand, support team, and leader will lead to a win. 

Media narratives are dramatized. 

Pondering

wage zombie wrote:

Pondering wrote:

If we want to overthrow the oligarchy we have to get the public on board first. If we aren't going to overthrow the oligarchy then we are arguing over who can best administrate the status quo. 

Nibbling at the edges of the market driven economy isn't going to work. 

I disagree.  Given that we can't yet overthrow the oligarchy we need to nibble as much as we can.  The more we can nibble, the further left we can move the Overton window.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window

Going with the person who can best administrate the status quo just keeps moving the Overton window right, which is the current status quo.  It moved right throughout the Chretien-Martin years and I don't see any indication that Trudeau would be any different.

That is how the right won, slowiy moving the window while they propagandized. If we are willing to wait 30 or 40 years to get back to where we were 30 to 40 years ago that would be a useful tactic. In my opinion we need more transformative change than that. We need to overthrow the oligarchs. Without that any movement of the Overton window is a mirage. 

We don't need to push anti-capitalism or promote new systems, we only need to take power from the oligarchs. 

NorthReport
Rokossovsky

Pondering wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 I think the point is each of these men were seen as saviors of the Liberal Party and were high in the polls, but things change and things can change for Trudeau too, his numbers aren't that impressive right now.

None of them were seen as saviors. The Party was split between Rae and Ignatieff which let Dion produce a surprise win. Head honchos backstabbed Dion to get their preferred candidate in, Ignatieff. Trudeau is not a "savior" either. The hope is that a combination between party brand, support team, and leader will lead to a win. 

Media narratives are dramatized. 

Don't forget about the Paul Martin/Jean Chretien punch and judy show and trying to buy Quebec loyalty with Adscam. Liberals gotta love em. Definitely the most competent managers of the neo-liberal paradise.

thorin_bane
thorin_bane

Pondering wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 I think the point is each of these men were seen as saviors of the Liberal Party and were high in the polls, but things change and things can change for Trudeau too, his numbers aren't that impressive right now.

None of them were seen as saviors. The Party was split between Rae and Ignatieff which let Dion produce a surprise win. Head honchos backstabbed Dion to get their preferred candidate in, Ignatieff. Trudeau is not a "savior" either. The hope is that a combination between party brand, support team, and leader will lead to a win. 

Media narratives are dramatized. 


Thats isn't what you have typed since joining, nor what we use to see about other Lib leaders from propagandists in past elections.

thorin_bane

Pondering wrote:

wage zombie wrote:

Pondering wrote:

If we want to overthrow the oligarchy we have to get the public on board first. If we aren't going to overthrow the oligarchy then we are arguing over who can best administrate the status quo. 

Nibbling at the edges of the market driven economy isn't going to work. 

I disagree.  Given that we can't yet overthrow the oligarchy we need to nibble as much as we can.  The more we can nibble, the further left we can move the Overton window.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window

Going with the person who can best administrate the status quo just keeps moving the Overton window right, which is the current status quo.  It moved right throughout the Chretien-Martin years and I don't see any indication that Trudeau would be any different.

That is how the right won, slowiy moving the window while they propagandized. If we are willing to wait 30 or 40 years to get back to where we were 30 to 40 years ago that would be a useful tactic. In my opinion we need more transformative change than that. We need to overthrow the oligarchs. Without that any movement of the Overton window is a mirage. 

We don't need to push anti-capitalism or promote new systems, we only need to take power from the oligarchs. 


OK Vote NDP and push them hard left, because that is the ONLY party that can move in that direction. Everyone else doesn't even want to talk about it.

josh
NorthReport
josh

So EKOS is 30-29-23.  With the Greens, as usual, at a too high 9.

Pondering

thorin_bane wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 I think the point is each of these men were seen as saviors of the Liberal Party and were high in the polls, but things change and things can change for Trudeau too, his numbers aren't that impressive right now.

None of them were seen as saviors. The Party was split between Rae and Ignatieff which let Dion produce a surprise win. Head honchos backstabbed Dion to get their preferred candidate in, Ignatieff. Trudeau is not a "savior" either. The hope is that a combination between party brand, support team, and leader will lead to a win. 

Media narratives are dramatized. 


Thats isn't what you have typed since joining, nor what we use to see about other Lib leaders from propagandists in past elections.

I've always acknowledged Trudeau's faults as well as his strengths. I've always said that I am voting for him above Mulcair but that if McQuaig were leading the NDP I'd vote for her. I've disagreed with numerous positions Trudeau has taken. I have emphasized that Trudeau will lean on his team not just himself to get elected.

The "saviors" narrative is just another empty meaningless criticism.

NorthReport

In the last few years in Canada pollsters have seriously failed the voting public

Is it time to reduce the emphasis on polls and the ensuing noise that accompanies them in the mainstream press

The voters in Alberta certainly think so
and in federal politics right now we have Ipsos Reid suggesting the Cons are doing very well whereas EKOS suggests otherwise

Who is lying to us?

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

If the Liberals go back down to 19% are you still going to vote for them?

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

33 is not 'very well' for the Conservatives. It means they don't get a majority. It is a Harper Fail. It means the Liberals are going to have to prop them up to prevent another election. Both polls are satisfactory. Duffy's Diary is going to be the Tome of Fear for Conservatives and Liberals alike. If the Liberal-Conservative Governing Conspiracy Vote (which has governed Canada since before its existence) goes below 55%, they are going to be calling for Unite the Right, as the NDP will win on Lib-Con splits.

Pondering

montrealer58 wrote:

If the Liberals go back down to 19% are you still going to vote for them?

Regardless of where the Liberals stand nationally I will vote based on the situation in my own riding as that is the only way a strategic vote has any impact. If the NDP is the frontrunner in my riding, even if the Liberals are in first place nationally, I will vote NDP. If the Bloc and Conservatives are in contention I will vote Bloc.

My preference is for the Liberals to win but Harper has to go.

Pondering

montrealer58 wrote:

33 is not 'very well' for the Conservatives. It means they don't get a majority. It is a Harper Fail. It means the Liberals are going to have to prop them up to prevent another election. Both polls are satisfactory. Duffy's Diary is going to be the Tome of Fear for Conservatives and Liberals alike. If the Liberal-Conservative Governing Conspiracy Vote (which has governed Canada since before its existence) goes below 55%, they are going to be calling for Unite the Right, as the NDP will win on Lib-Con splits.

Liberals and the reformacons will never unite. The more likely scenario is for the reformacons to split the Conservatives again leaving fiscal conservatives no where to go but the Liberals.

To my mind the biggest risk progressives are facing is the NDP becoming the Liberal party of old. They are pretty much there already. The progressive left of the NDP is going to end up splitting off like the reformers did from the Conservatives if their voices continue being ignored.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The Liberals and the Conservatives have been working as a merged entity since Paul Martin's minority government. Even now, Trudeau says he will not cooperate with the NDP, which can only lead us to assume he will work with Harper if there is something in it for him and his long-serving cronies.

Liberal supporters can refuse to acknowledge the reality that the Liberals are just a front for the Conservatives, however we don't have to participate in their delusion. Canada may wake up to the fact that the Liberals only have their own interests at heart, as they always have.

If you don't know who the sucker is in a poker game, it is probably you. Self-check your 'faith' in your 'beliefs' and 'leaders', or you'll be fleeced again.

nicky
Pondering

montrealer58 wrote:

The Liberals and the Conservatives have been working as a merged entity since Paul Martin's minority government. Even now, Trudeau says he will not cooperate with the NDP, which can only lead us to assume he will work with Harper if there is something in it for him and his long-serving cronies.

The Liberals have not said they won't cooperate with the NDP. They said they won't agree to overthrow a new government before the election is even called.

montrealer58 wrote:
Liberal supporters can refuse to acknowledge the reality that the Liberals are just a front for the Conservatives, however we don't have to participate in their delusion. Canada may wake up to the fact that the Liberals only have their own interests at heart, as they always have.

You are contradicting yourself. Liberals wouldn't have any interests if they were just a front for another political party. I assure you Liberals want to win the election for themselves.

The ndp leader was quick to attack Paul Martin and the Liberals, but all he would say about the front-running Conservatives was that they were “wrong on the issues.” Shortly after the election, arguing that Canadians wanted Parliament to function and for the sniping to end, Layton said that he could and would work with Harper. But based on ominous early warning signs from the Conservatives, he must now be wondering if Harper will work with him.

http://thewalrus.ca/2006-05-politics/

montrealer58 wrote:
If you don't know who the sucker is in a poker game, it is probably you. Self-check your 'faith' in your 'beliefs' and 'leaders', or you'll be fleeced again.

I know who the sucker is and it's NDP supporters who think the NDP puts truth, justice, and the people ahead of it's own self-interest.

 

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

 

 

I know who the sucker is and it's NDP supporters who think the NDP puts truth, justice, and the people ahead of it's own self-interest.

 

 

Is this snark?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

 

 

I know who the sucker is and it's NDP supporters who think the NDP puts truth, justice, and the people ahead of it's own self-interest.

 

 

Is this snark?

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Elites in the Liberal Party always get plum appointments and corporate directorships from their Tory masters after every election. Whatever they do is definitely in their own interest, especially when they are selling Canada down the river. Liberals will say anything to get votes, and govern in the interests of their Tory masters. The "competition" between the Liberals and the Tories is like the dog show at Cruft's. Oh look at the pedigree on that one!

Pondering

Pondering wrote:

montrealer58 wrote:

The Liberals and the Conservatives have been working as a merged entity since Paul Martin's minority government. Even now, Trudeau says he will not cooperate with the NDP, which can only lead us to assume he will work with Harper if there is something in it for him and his long-serving cronies.

The Liberals have not said they won't cooperate with the NDP. They said they won't agree to overthrow a new government before the election is even called.

montrealer58 wrote:
Liberal supporters can refuse to acknowledge the reality that the Liberals are just a front for the Conservatives, however we don't have to participate in their delusion. Canada may wake up to the fact that the Liberals only have their own interests at heart, as they always have.

You are contradicting yourself. Liberals wouldn't have any interests if they were just a front for another political party. I assure you Liberals want to win the election for themselves.

The ndp leader was quick to attack Paul Martin and the Liberals, but all he would say about the front-running Conservatives was that they were “wrong on the issues.” Shortly after the election, arguing that Canadians wanted Parliament to function and for the sniping to end, Layton said that he could and would work with Harper. But based on ominous early warning signs from the Conservatives, he must now be wondering if Harper will work with him.

http://thewalrus.ca/2006-05-politics/

montrealer58 wrote:
If you don't know who the sucker is in a poker game, it is probably you. Self-check your 'faith' in your 'beliefs' and 'leaders', or you'll be fleeced again.

I know who the sucker is and it's NDP supporters who think the NDP puts truth, justice, and the people ahead of it's own self-interest.

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Is this snark?

No, it's in response to the suggestion that people who vote Liberal are suckers for thinking the Conservatives and Liberals are separate parties each running to win while the NDP is some exception outside the political norm that puts it's interests second to that of the people.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

 

No, it's in response to the suggestion that people who vote Liberal are suckers for thinking the Conservatives and Liberals are separate parties each running to win while the NDP is some exception outside the political norm that puts it's interests second to that of the people.

Is this snark too?

Rokossovsky

Pondering wrote:

thorin_bane wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 I think the point is each of these men were seen as saviors of the Liberal Party and were high in the polls, but things change and things can change for Trudeau too, his numbers aren't that impressive right now.

None of them were seen as saviors. The Party was split between Rae and Ignatieff which let Dion produce a surprise win. Head honchos backstabbed Dion to get their preferred candidate in, Ignatieff. Trudeau is not a "savior" either. The hope is that a combination between party brand, support team, and leader will lead to a win. 

Media narratives are dramatized. 


Thats isn't what you have typed since joining, nor what we use to see about other Lib leaders from propagandists in past elections.

I've always acknowledged Trudeau's faults as well as his strengths. I've always said that I am voting for him above Mulcair but that if McQuaig were leading the NDP I'd vote for her. I've disagreed with numerous positions Trudeau has taken. I have emphasized that Trudeau will lean on his team not just himself to get elected.

The "saviors" narrative is just another empty meaningless criticism.

Hilarious. Thinks Trudeau is flawed but will vote for him based on his team, but names none of them, but would vote for the NDP if McQuaig were leader, forgeting that McQuaig was welcomed generously by Mulcair to the NDP team and that he has campaigned hard for her, and as high hopes she will win in the next election, which is likely since she will be running against Morneau the stuffed shirt on the Trudeau team, whose claim to fame is being a corporate aparatchik on the board of the C. D. Howe, institute.

Indeed, I can tell you through my direct knowledge of McQuaig, and having spoken with her, that she has a great deal of respect for Thomas Mucair. Maybe she knows something that you don't.

Aristotleded24

Pondering wrote:
Regardless of where the Liberals stand nationally I will vote based on the situation in my own riding as that is the only way a strategic vote has any impact. If the NDP is the frontrunner in my riding, even if the Liberals are in first place nationally, I will vote NDP. If the Bloc and Conservatives are in contention I will vote Bloc.

[url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurier%E2%80%94Sainte-Marie#Election_resul... are the 2011 results from your constituency:[/url]

NDP: 23, 373

Bloc: 17, 991

Liberal: 4, 976

Conservative: 1, 764

Green: 1, 325

Rhino: 398

Communist: 137

Marxist-Leninist: 77

Independent: 73

Pondering

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Pondering wrote:
Regardless of where the Liberals stand nationally I will vote based on the situation in my own riding as that is the only way a strategic vote has any impact. If the NDP is the frontrunner in my riding, even if the Liberals are in first place nationally, I will vote NDP. If the Bloc and Conservatives are in contention I will vote Bloc.

[url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurier%E2%80%94Sainte-Marie#Election_resul... are the 2011 results from your constituency:[/url]

NDP: 23, 373

Bloc: 17, 991

Liberal: 4, 976

Conservative: 1, 764

Green: 1, 325

Rhino: 398

Communist: 137

Marxist-Leninist: 77

Independent: 73

I will go by where things stand at the time of the election but yes it does seem like I will be voting NDP to block the Bloc if the numbers remain as they are.

Pondering

Rokossovsky wrote:
Hilarious. Thinks Trudeau is flawed but will vote for him based on his team, but names none of them, but would vote for the NDP if McQuaig were leader, forgeting that McQuaig was welcomed generously by Mulcair to the NDP team and that he has campaigned hard for her, and as high hopes she will win in the next election, which is likely since she will be running against Morneau the stuffed shirt on the Trudeau team, whose claim to fame is being a corporate aparatchik on the board of the C. D. Howe, institute.

Indeed, I can tell you through my direct knowledge of McQuaig, and having spoken with her, that she has a great deal of respect for Thomas Mucair. Maybe she knows something that you don't.

Even if I admire someone I don't just vote the way they say to. I evaluate the candidates myself. I doubt Mulcair takes his marching orders from McQuaig. I hope she does win her riding in the next general election. I was disappointed that she lost against Freeland.

I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:
Hilarious. Thinks Trudeau is flawed but will vote for him based on his team, but names none of them, but would vote for the NDP if McQuaig were leader, forgeting that McQuaig was welcomed generously by Mulcair to the NDP team and that he has campaigned hard for her, and as high hopes she will win in the next election, which is likely since she will be running against Morneau the stuffed shirt on the Trudeau team, whose claim to fame is being a corporate aparatchik on the board of the C. D. Howe, institute.

Indeed, I can tell you through my direct knowledge of McQuaig, and having spoken with her, that she has a great deal of respect for Thomas Mucair. Maybe she knows something that you don't.

Even if I admire someone I don't just vote the way they say to. I evaluate the candidates myself. I doubt Mulcair takes his marching orders from McQuaig. I hope she does win her riding in the next general election. I was disappointed that she lost against Freeland.

I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again.

Your last two posts are a direct contradiction.

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:
Hilarious. Thinks Trudeau is flawed but will vote for him based on his team, but names none of them, but would vote for the NDP if McQuaig were leader, forgeting that McQuaig was welcomed generously by Mulcair to the NDP team and that he has campaigned hard for her, and as high hopes she will win in the next election, which is likely since she will be running against Morneau the stuffed shirt on the Trudeau team, whose claim to fame is being a corporate aparatchik on the board of the C. D. Howe, institute.

Indeed, I can tell you through my direct knowledge of McQuaig, and having spoken with her, that she has a great deal of respect for Thomas Mucair. Maybe she knows something that you don't.

Even if I admire someone I don't just vote the way they say to. I evaluate the candidates myself. I doubt Mulcair takes his marching orders from McQuaig. I hope she does win her riding in the next general election. I was disappointed that she lost against Freeland.

I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again.

Your last two posts are a direct contradiction.

Quote the contradiction if it exists.

NorthReport

Liberals Slip in Quebec
       
The following projection is based upon a blended aggregation of polls conducted in March, 2015 among some 18,000 respondents by Abacus, Ekos, Forum and Leger Marketing. The basic finding is similar to projections we have seen since this past December, a minority parliament with no party close to the required 170 seats for a majority, but the Conservatives in first place. As each new set of polls is considered, there are slight variations from region to region but the net effect has been consistently similar. Ontario and Atlantic Canada have not changed since the previous LISPOP projection, but the Conservatives dropped slightly in BC and Alberta, and have improved in Quebec largely at the expense of the Liberals. The Liberal decline in Quebec might be partially attributable to the larger proportion of polling conducted by Ekos this past month. As noted in the previous LISPOP report, we found that polling firm shows the Conservatives higher and the Liberals lower in their Quebec numbers than other companies. Map can be viewed at http://lispop.ca/elections/fed2015.html

http://www.lispop.ca/seatprojections.html

 

Centrist

BTW, here is a recently released national poll by Oracle Research. It's a CATI poll albeit do not know Oracle's overall fed track record. Thought that I would toss it out there in any event.

http://www.oraclepoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/National-voter-inte...

 

Pondering

Stockholm wrote:

The challenge for Trudeau in Quebec is that in English Canada a lot of people still desperately want to believe in the Trudeau fantasy - so they remain in denial about what a goof he is and they make excuses for his abysmal performance because they still live in this fantasy world where he is some second coming of his father. In francophone Quebec, the Trudeau name is more controversial and there is little or no reservoir of goodwill for Trudeau - if anything Quebecers deep down want him to fail so they can get in the kick at his father they never got a chance to give when Trudeau quit in 1984

That's not true. When polled on the qualities of the leaders Trudeau led in numerous areas. Mulcair is preferred as PM but not by a lot.

English Canada is not fantasizing that he is the second coming of his father. Where do you get this stuff?

NorthReport

Sorry but just don't have a lot of confidence in either Forum nor EKOS polling, and that's why 308's numbers are just Liberal fantasyland.

Garbage in = garbage out!

Hopefully Angus Reid will be out with a poll within the next month. As one of the most accurate federal Canadian pollsters up there with Ipsos Reid, it will be interesting to hear their take on what the numbers are six months out from the election date.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:
Hilarious. Thinks Trudeau is flawed but will vote for him based on his team, but names none of them, but would vote for the NDP if McQuaig were leader, forgeting that McQuaig was welcomed generously by Mulcair to the NDP team and that he has campaigned hard for her, and as high hopes she will win in the next election, which is likely since she will be running against Morneau the stuffed shirt on the Trudeau team, whose claim to fame is being a corporate aparatchik on the board of the C. D. Howe, institute.

Indeed, I can tell you through my direct knowledge of McQuaig, and having spoken with her, that she has a great deal of respect for Thomas Mucair. Maybe she knows something that you don't.

Even if I admire someone I don't just vote the way they say to. I evaluate the candidates myself. I doubt Mulcair takes his marching orders from McQuaig. I hope she does win her riding in the next general election. I was disappointed that she lost against Freeland.

I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again.

Your last two posts are a direct contradiction.

Quote the contradiction if it exists.

Sure:

"I will go by where things stand at the time of the election but yes it does seem like I will be voting NDP to block the Bloc if the numbers remain as they are."

"I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again."

nicky

Nanos is on Question period talking about the Duffy trial. He just said that his numbers, to be released this week, "are not pretty" for Harper.

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:
Hilarious. Thinks Trudeau is flawed but will vote for him based on his team, but names none of them, but would vote for the NDP if McQuaig were leader, forgeting that McQuaig was welcomed generously by Mulcair to the NDP team and that he has campaigned hard for her, and as high hopes she will win in the next election, which is likely since she will be running against Morneau the stuffed shirt on the Trudeau team, whose claim to fame is being a corporate aparatchik on the board of the C. D. Howe, institute.

Indeed, I can tell you through my direct knowledge of McQuaig, and having spoken with her, that she has a great deal of respect for Thomas Mucair. Maybe she knows something that you don't.

Even if I admire someone I don't just vote the way they say to. I evaluate the candidates myself. I doubt Mulcair takes his marching orders from McQuaig. I hope she does win her riding in the next general election. I was disappointed that she lost against Freeland.

I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again.

Your last two posts are a direct contradiction.

Quote the contradiction if it exists.

Sure:

"I will go by where things stand at the time of the election but yes it does seem like I will be voting NDP to block the Bloc if the numbers remain as they are."

"I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again."

My vote goes to Trudeau in the sense of who I am backing to win in 2015. I still promote strategic voting in ridings where either the NDP or Liberals are clearly placed to block Harper. In my own riding in 2011 I did vote NDP which was my first choice at the time. My riding will not go Conservative so I could vote my true preference, which is Trudeau, but the NDP is my second choice and I don't want the Bloc to take a seat so if the NDP is ahead of the Liberals by a significant margin then I will vote NDP again. I am not one to cut off my nose to spite my face. If the NDP is neck and neck with the Liberals, then I will vote Liberal.

 

Pondering

nicky wrote:

Nanos is on Question period talking about the Duffy trial. He just said that his numbers, to be released this week, "are not pretty" for Harper.

Tantalizing comment. "Not pretty" to me suggests a significant slide. I don't think the Duffy trial is the sole reason. I read that support for C 51 is dropping although I don't know by how much. A soldier dying on the front may also be impacting sentiments. It's not just training and a few bombing runs. I suspect there are many Canadians who didn't mind our "helping out" but who don't want us directly involved in another war. Harper has tried to Americanize our relationship to the military but it didn't work. It was somewhat misplaced but Canadians took great pride in our peacekeeping reputation.

It will be interesting to see how much he has dropped and which parties benefit.

The latest oil spill could up the Greens in BC. 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:
Hilarious. Thinks Trudeau is flawed but will vote for him based on his team, but names none of them, but would vote for the NDP if McQuaig were leader, forgeting that McQuaig was welcomed generously by Mulcair to the NDP team and that he has campaigned hard for her, and as high hopes she will win in the next election, which is likely since she will be running against Morneau the stuffed shirt on the Trudeau team, whose claim to fame is being a corporate aparatchik on the board of the C. D. Howe, institute.

Indeed, I can tell you through my direct knowledge of McQuaig, and having spoken with her, that she has a great deal of respect for Thomas Mucair. Maybe she knows something that you don't.

Even if I admire someone I don't just vote the way they say to. I evaluate the candidates myself. I doubt Mulcair takes his marching orders from McQuaig. I hope she does win her riding in the next general election. I was disappointed that she lost against Freeland.

I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again.

Your last two posts are a direct contradiction.

Quote the contradiction if it exists.

Sure:

"I will go by where things stand at the time of the election but yes it does seem like I will be voting NDP to block the Bloc if the numbers remain as they are."

"I am not just voting for Trudeau based on his team but I am not going to reiterate my reasons yet again."

My vote goes to Trudeau in the sense of who I am backing to win in 2015. I still promote strategic voting in ridings where either the NDP or Liberals are clearly placed to block Harper. In my own riding in 2011 I did vote NDP which was my first choice at the time. My riding will not go Conservative so I could vote my true preference, which is Trudeau, but the NDP is my second choice and I don't want the Bloc to take a seat so if the NDP is ahead of the Liberals by a significant margin then I will vote NDP again. I am not one to cut off my nose to spite my face. If the NDP is neck and neck with the Liberals, then I will vote Liberal.

 

I am not calling you a liar. I am saying that your words don't add up and that is a different point.

I think nobody believes you when you say this. You sound like one of those long time fictional supporters of one party saying they saw the light and are moving to another.

Does not matter what you say here -- your animosity to the NDP would lead most here to consider that you would vote for the Liberals even if they were down to 10% and the NDP were at 50%. It is possible that you would argue in such a case that the Liberals would be better positioned to win.

As for your past voting history -- given your comments about the NDP I would guess there are a few here who might believe you on that and perhaps you are telling the truth. But I am not one of those who can believe you. I am not impressed by your skating around facts as we have seen here or by your many contradictions. And I do tend to believe your frequent statements of opposition and anger with the NDP as having roots close to a decade ago.

The fact that I could say your previous two comments were a contradiction and you pretend that they were not is just another example.

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

My vote goes to Trudeau in the sense of who I am backing to win in 2015. I still promote strategic voting in ridings where either the NDP or Liberals are clearly placed to block Harper. In my own riding in 2011 I did vote NDP which was my first choice at the time. My riding will not go Conservative so I could vote my true preference, which is Trudeau, but the NDP is my second choice and I don't want the Bloc to take a seat so if the NDP is ahead of the Liberals by a significant margin then I will vote NDP again. I am not one to cut off my nose to spite my face. If the NDP is neck and neck with the Liberals, then I will vote Liberal.

I am not calling you a liar. I am saying that your words don't add up and that is a different point.

I think nobody believes you when you say this. You sound like one of those long time fictional supporters of one party saying they saw the light and are moving to another.

Does not matter what you say here -- your animosity to the NDP would lead most here to consider that you would vote for the Liberals even if they were down to 10% and the NDP were at 50%. It is possible that you would argue in such a case that the Liberals would be better positioned to win.

As for your past voting history -- given your comments about the NDP I would guess there are a few here who might believe you on that and perhaps you are telling the truth. But I am not one of those who can believe you. I am not impressed by your skating around facts as we have seen here or by your many contradictions. And I do tend to believe your frequent statements of opposition and anger with the NDP as having roots close to a decade ago.

The fact that I could say your previous two comments were a contradiction and you pretend that they were not is just another example.

All I said was quote the contradictions if they exist because it's impossible to respond to without knowing what you were referring to.

I've made no secret of the fact that I support strategic voting on a per riding basis and I've made no secret of that fact that I support Trudeau's Liberals for 2015 and why.

There is no federal party that comes close to representing my views so I vote for the party I think will deliver the most positive changes.That used to be the NDP but I never considered myself "an NDPer" just because I voted for them in some elections or a Liberal because I voted for Dion.

I would not be so upset with the current direction of the NDP if I thought they were a lost cause. I'm angry with them because I want a progressive choice on the federal landscape and the leadership of the NDP has abdicated that role. In my opinion it is being driven by the party executive. I hope progressive members bide their time and regain control of the party.

The Liberal party had to overthrow the old guard to renew itself. I think the NDP should do the same.

What does it matter who I am or whether or not people believe my voting record or anything else about me. I have no credentials to add weight to my words. I am not claiming my opinion has any more merit than anyone else's. I'm not even claiming to be non-partisan or unbiased.

The arguments I present are either convincing or they are not regardless of who I am or who I vote for.

 

 

Stockholm

So you think the federal NDP has abandoned its progressive role by bravely defying all the pundits and opposing the draconian Bill C 51 - while boy Justin was cowering behind mother Harper's skirts?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering, your commentary has to be believeable in order to have merit. Sean, and myself, simply don't belive you ever voted NDP, period. Further, frankly, your arguments have been disproved over and over. So really the issue of merit doesn't matter. Either, you have a dfferent idea of what the word "merit", actually believes, or, I am more inclined to believe this, you simply don't care. I am all for you posting, and all for myself and others challenging pretty much everything you write. I wouldn't support any effort or movement of any kind to deny your right to post, but I also wouldn't support others, including myself, from challenging you pretty much all the time. Its about debate. Fine, debate. But if you do, expect response. For myself, I don't believe you have EVER voted NDP.

adma

Pondering wrote:
My riding will not go Conservative so I could vote my true preference, which is Trudeau, but the NDP is my second choice and I don't want the Bloc to take a seat so if the NDP is ahead of the Liberals by a significant margin then I will vote NDP again.

In terms of 2015, fearing the Bloc is as lame as an architectural preservationist fearing 60s Brutalism.

Pondering

adma wrote:

Pondering wrote:
My riding will not go Conservative so I could vote my true preference, which is Trudeau, but the NDP is my second choice and I don't want the Bloc to take a seat so if the NDP is ahead of the Liberals by a significant margin then I will vote NDP again.

In terms of 2015, fearing the Bloc is as lame as an architectural preservationist fearing 60s Brutalism.

I'm not afraid of them I just don't want to be represented by the Bloc. I would prefer a Green rep to a Bloc rep.

In my opinion most voters are non-ideological and don't feel an affiliation to any political party.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:
.

In my opinion most voters are non-ideological and don't feel an affiliation to any political party.

Except you.

NorthReport

Here is an article written by a Liberal about some polling by a firm called Innovative Research:

“Depending on how many seats they win from the NDP in Ontario, the current Ontario results may not be enough for the Liberals even to surpass the NDP without gains elsewhere, particularly from NDP seats in Quebec,” Mr. Lyle said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/federal-liberals-poised-to-...

Debater

Federal Liberals poised to make great election gains in Ontario, poll finds

Monday, Apr. 13 2015

Excerpt:

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Within the city of Toronto, where a total of 646 voters were surveyed, the Liberals appear to be dominant, with the poll showing them supported by 50 per cent of decided voters next to 30 per cent for the Conservatives and just 15 per cent for the NDP. Further breakdowns show those gains coming primarily from the NDP in the city’s core, and from both the Conservatives and the New Democrats closer to the city limits. With Liberal support seemingly consistent across the city, they appear well-positioned to win the vast majority of its 25 seats, although the margin of error is larger for the regional breakdowns.

In the Greater Toronto Area, widely considered to be the single most important electoral battleground in the country, the picture is more complex. In the western section of the GTA, which most notably includes the cities of Mississauga, Brampton and Oakville, the Conservatives appear to remain strong, polling at 44 per cent to the Liberals’ 34 per cent and the NDP’s 15 per cent. But in the northern and eastern parts of the GTA – which among other municipalities includes Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham and Ajax – the Tories and Liberals are shown to be in a virtual tie with Conservatives slightly ahead 43 per cent and 40 per cent. (Sample sizes for the two areas were 377 and 365, respectively.)

Considering the unpopularity of the governing provincial Liberals in the economically hard-hit southwestern and south-central corners of the province, where there are 30 federal seats, Mr. Trudeau’s party fared surprisingly well among the 791 Ontarians polled there – running even with the Conservatives at 35 per cent each among decided voters. And the Liberals and Conservatives are in another virtual tie in eastern Ontario, at 43 per cent and 40 per cent, respectively.

In a poll with plenty of cause for concern for the NDP, responses in Northern Ontario provide more of it – showing Thomas Mulcair’s party sinking from 41 per cent in the past campaign to 25 per cent now, the Tories slipping less precipitously from 36 to 27 per cent and the Liberals rising from 19 to 34 per cent. There, though, a small sample size of 198 respondents means findings have a large margin of error.

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http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/federal-liberals-poised-to-ma...

 

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