Latest polling thread Feb. 25th, 2015

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nicky

Tom Mulciar has consistently led the other leaders on approval / diasapproval. But he has lagged on  preferred PM.

That is now changing:

Harper has reclaimed the lead, with 38 per cent support from respondents to the Ipsos poll conducted for Global News. Mulcair’s seven-point climb, meanwhile, puts him up at 31 per cent support, a small step in front of Trudeau who’s now sitting at 30 per cent

Justin is suddenly in freefall:

Areas in which Canadians’ opinions on Trudeau fell, compared to February 2014 data, include:

  • Someone you can trust (down seven points)
  • Someone who wants to be prime minister for the right reasons (down seven points)
  • Someone who has a vision for Canada you can support (down seven points)
  • Someone who will best represent Canada on the world stage (down seven points)
  • Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada (down five points)
  • Someone who will support an open and ethical government (down five points

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/1935605/justin-trudeau-tumbles-from-top-pick-f...

 

Brachina

 Hopefully.the.fall continues and increases in speed.

Brachina

 Hopefully.the.fall continues and increases in speed.

nicky

"How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly."— Ernest Hemingway, American author and journalist, Nobel Prize laureate (1899-1961), The Sun Also Rises,

Pierre C yr

Trudeau in Trouble will be a mantra by May.

nicky

Kinsella says hidden EKOS poll shows Tureau down to "Ignatieff levels"

bigcitylib says:
April 13, 2015 at 8:33 pm
IPSOS EXCLUSIVE! HUDAK WINS!! HUDAK WINS!!

Ipsos, the new Forum.

Reply
Warren says:
April 13, 2015 at 9:53 pm
Except… That mysterious Ekos, that iPolitics never wrote about? The reporter in question (Kristie Smith) told me they had obtained more or less the same result about 10 days ago.

Reply
Matt says:
April 13, 2015 at 10:40 pm
Wait……

So Frank Graves at EKOS, he of the “the Liberals need to start a culture war” to beat Harper is intentionally withholding polling results that show Trudeau in a negative light?

Or did I completely misread what you said?

Reply
Warren says:
April 13, 2015 at 10:43 pm
IPolitics has it. Not Frank’s decision.

Reply
Matt says:
April 13, 2015 at 10:57 pm
Yeah, my apologies to Frank. I realized you were saying iPolitics sat on the data after I re-read it.

Warren says:
April 13, 2015 at 9:55 pm
What she sent to me Friday before last:

Hey there,

Got some new polling data from EKOS and it’s showing Trudeau has slipped down to Ignattief levels of popularity — any chance you have some time today to chat?

Reply
Matt says:
April 13, 2015 at 10:36 pm
Warren, im guessing the EKOS poll you were made aware of is what you were talking about a couple weeks ago about “Indigestion” Easter weekend?

Reply
Warren says:
April 13, 2015 at 10:43 pm
Yep

Pondering

nicky wrote:
Kinsella says hidden EKOS poll shows Tureau down to "Ignatieff levels" bigcitylib says: April 13, 2015 at 8:33 pm IPSOS EXCLUSIVE! HUDAK WINS!! HUDAK WINS!! Ipsos, the new Forum. Reply Warren says: April 13, 2015 at 9:53 pm Except… That mysterious Ekos, that iPolitics never wrote about? The reporter in question (Kristie Smith) told me they had obtained more or less the same result about 10 days ago. Reply Matt says: April 13, 2015 at 10:40 pm Wait…… So Frank Graves at EKOS, he of the “the Liberals need to start a culture war” to beat Harper is intentionally withholding polling results that show Trudeau in a negative light? Or did I completely misread what you said? Reply Warren says: April 13, 2015 at 10:43 pm IPolitics has it. Not Frank’s decision. Reply Matt says: April 13, 2015 at 10:57 pm Yeah, my apologies to Frank. I realized you were saying iPolitics sat on the data after I re-read it. Warren says: April 13, 2015 at 9:55 pm What she sent to me Friday before last: Hey there, Got some new polling data from EKOS and it’s showing Trudeau has slipped down to Ignattief levels of popularity — any chance you have some time today to chat? Reply Matt says: April 13, 2015 at 10:36 pm Warren, im guessing the EKOS poll you were made aware of is what you were talking about a couple weeks ago about “Indigestion” Easter weekend? Reply Warren says: April 13, 2015 at 10:43 pm Yep

IPSOS exclusive Hudak wins?

EKOS also releases information directly not just through iPolitics.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/04/liberals-rebound-in-quebec...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Kinsella

He is a partner with the Daisy Consulting Group, a Toronto based firm that engages in paid political campaign strategy work, lobbying and communications crisis management.

Kinsella publicly considered seeking the Liberal nomination for the 2015 Federal election in Toronto—Danforth, but ultimately demurred after believing he would not be approved as a nominee.[8]

Provincial Liberals

Kinsella was a long time supporter of Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty, and was a fixture in Ontario Liberal Party election campaigns while McGuinty was leader. He would apologize for a blog post during the campaign suggesting that Progressive Conservative MPP Lisa MacLeod would rather bake cookies than be seen with farm activist Randy Hillier; MacLeod would later use the remark as the humorous title for a cookbook.[9]

Kinsella supported Sandra Pupatello in the 2013 Liberal Party of Ontario leadership convention that chose a successor to McGuinty.[10] The leadership was won by Kathleen Wynne. Kinsella was sharply critical of Wynne's campaign during the 2014 Ontario election.[11]

Kinsella doesn't impress me. He wants to appear as though he is an insider but he isn't.

nicky

Not an insider like you then Pondering?

josh

No one does bitter better than Kinsella.

Pondering

 

nicky wrote:
Not an insider like you then Pondering?

I'm not an insider.

I do like to drill down into information:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6819

  • Someone you can trust: Harper (36%, +5), Mulcair (32%, +2) Trudeau (31%, -7)
  • Someone who will get things done: Harper (39%, +4), Trudeau (31%, -7), Mulcair (30%, +4)
  • Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada: Harper (40%, +3), Trudeau (32%, -5), Mulcair, (29%, +3)
  • Someone who is best to manage during tough economic times: Harper (45%, +2), Mulcair (28%, +1), Trudeau (27%, -3)
  • Someone who wants to be Prime Minister for the right reasons: Harper (36%, +5), Mulcair (33%, +2), Trudeau (31%, -7)
  • Someone who has a vision of Canada that you can support: Harper (37%, +5), Trudeau (33%, -7), Mulcair (30%, +2)
  • Someone who will provide an open, responsible and ethical government: Mulcair (34%, +2), Trudeau (33%, -5), Harper (32%, +1)
  • Someone who will best lead and represent Canada on the world stage: Harper (39%, +3), Trudeau (33%, -7), Mulcair (28%, +4)
  • Someone whose values best represent my own: Harper (36%, +4), Trudeau (33%, -3), Mulcair (31%, -1)
  • Someone who will promote democracy and its processes effectively: Harper (34%, +3), Mulcair (34%, +3), Trudeau (33%, -5)
  • Someone who has a hidden agenda: Harper (48%, -4), Trudeau (33%, +1), Mulcair (19%, +3)

Personally I find these number disheartening but not for the reasons you think I should.

  • Someone you can trust: Harper (36%, +5), Mulcair (32%, +2) Trudeau (31%, -7)

Harper is the most trustworthy but they are all pretty close.

  • Someone who will get things done: Harper (39%, +4), Trudeau (31%, -7), Mulcair (30%, +4)
  • Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada: Harper (40%, +3), Trudeau (32%, -5), Mulcair, (29%, +3)
  • Someone who is best to manage during tough economic times: Harper (45%, +2), Mulcair (28%, +1), Trudeau (27%, -3)

Harper is the big winner on the administrative front. Those are majority numbers. We can't assume that people vote based on these considerations evenly.

I won't comment on the rest of these now but I don't think they are encouraging numbers for progressives for reasons other than the next election.

 

 

 

 

Debater

NEW Weekly Nanos tracker shows drop for Tories as Duffy trial begins

https://twitter.com/globepolitics/status/588092614261547008

Debater

Liberals up on Nanos Index, Conservatives down, NDP now tied with CPC

Liberals - 57.6

NDP - 51.4

Conservatives - 51.2

---

Tuesday, April 14, 2015 6:08PM EDT

The New Democrats have tied the federal Conservative Party on the Nanos Party Power Index for the first time since September 2014.

The Tories continued their downward trend, dropping for the third week in a row and leaving them at 51 out of a possible 100 points:

  • Liberals: 58 (up one point from last week)
  • Conservatives: 51 (down one point from last week)
  • NDP: 51 (unchanged)
  • Greens: 34 (up one point from last week)
  • Bloc: 25 (down one point from last week)

A slight edge

The NDP just barely brushed past the Conservatives this week, as the two parties scored 51.4 and 51.2 points, respectively.

The Liberals remained atop the index, and the Green party also continued to rise, having moved four points since February.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers/ndp-tied-with-conser...

 

NorthReport

A lot of Nanos' stuff seems like gobbledygook.

Anyway here are the most recent polling results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

NorthReport

Canadian voters need to give their collective heads a serious shake. Far from cutting it, Trudeau is beginning to look more and more like a Liberal nitemare.

Justin Trudeau, Liberal leader: Two years in

Justin Trudeau took over the Liberals two years ago. Now, he has six months to reverse slipping numbers.

Paul Wells on Trudeau’s slide.

If they dared, they might have much to discuss. Since the beginning of 2015, the poll aggregator ThreeHundredEight has projected the Liberals winning fewer seats than the Conservatives, based on a rolling average of polls. The NDP under Mulcair has begun to show a little life. To believe Trudeau could take the Liberals back to power in a single step this October, you have had to believe he could at least triple his party’s seat count. That was always a long shot. Now it feels more like one.

You could chalk some of this up to worn-off novelty. But there is something deeper in Trudeau’s decline. He is running out of benefit of the doubt in precincts where he might have assumed the supply was unlimited. Take Michael Harris, the journalist whose book Party of Oneconsolidates his place as one of Harper’s most tireless critics. In a recent column, Harris served notice that Mulcair may be a more serviceable leader for Canada’s anti-Harper forces than Trudeau.

Trudeau has been “skipping time in the House of Commons,” Harris wrote, and on energy issues especially, Trudeau “has been criticized for being Harper Light.” But his “Big Blunder,” Harris wrote, with upper-case Bs, was Trudeau’s decision to support Bill C-51, the Conservatives’ anti-terrorism bill. (Trudeau wants it amended, and hopes to lead the government that will do it, but, in the meantime, he’s not opposing the bill in principle.)

“Canadians are longing for authentic leadership,” Harris wrote. “Only two politicians in Canada are providing it: Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Mulcair.”

Harris isn’t alone. Mulcair’s “best prime minister” score on the Ipsos poll was 18 points behind Trudeau’s last fall. Now he’s a point ahead. (Harper is back ahead of them both.)

 

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/justin-trudeau-liberal-leader-two...

------

5,440

Debater

Ipsos is a pollster with a known pro-Conservative bias.  And the Wells article is about the Ipsos poll.

How come their numbers are at odds with Nanos & EKOS?

And should we all just forget about their track record?  You might remember a year ago when you & Ipsos were claiming every day that Tim Hudak was guranteed to become Ontario Premier?

NorthReport

It's usual for party supporters to lash out at pollsters when their team is heading South.

Your buddy AJ is now bashing EKOS over at Kinsella's site because of the discussion that EKOS's leadership numbers on Trudeau were so bad, they are at Ignatieff's level now, that ipolitics refused to publish them. 

Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid have been the two most accurate pollsters in the last 2 federal elections.

Of course Liberal supporters like the CBC, 308 and EKOS etc, when EKOS comprises almost 50% of 308's polls from where 308 gets its data.  Laughing

But you know the olde adage: Garbage In = Garbage Out

Debater

EKOS has had the WORST numbers for LPC of any pollster this year.  It's certainly not been putting out pro-LPC numbers!

You've never really explained why you like posting pro-Conservative Ipsos polls so much.  Many people asked you this last year when you were posting daily predictions of a Tim Hudak victory.  I wasn't the only one who questioned why you were doing that.

Anyway, I will trust Nik Nanos before I will trust Ipsos.

And tonight, the Nanos Index is showing a continued CPC slide.  If you are a progressive, you're happy to see the declining CPC numbers, yes?

---

The Tories continued their downward trend, dropping for the third week in a row

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers/ndp-tied-with-conser...

Pondering

Harris got the analogy wrong:

Every boxing fan wants to see the first pair settle matters in the ring this May 2 in Las Vegas. Conversely, no progressive politico relishes a fight between Trudeau and Mulcair. That’s because it just might leave Stephen Harper wearing the championship belt again.

Trudeau must be realizing by now that Mulcair is no Patrick Brazeau when it comes to inside fighting.

With a June federal election still a reasonable possibility, the sparring between the two men now requires headgear. In the early going, when it was all Trudeau, Mulcair proved he could take a punch. More recently, the NDP leader has been piling up the jabs using the ring savvy developed over decades in public life at the highest levels. Mulcair is now ahead on points — or at least he is on this judge’s card.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/03/22/is-trudeau-just-handing-harper-the-el...

In the Brazeau fight Trudeau's strategy was to let Brazeau get all the jabs in to the point that Trudeau's head was swimming. Trudeau waited to the end of the second round to land hard hits on Brazeau. He let Brazeau wear himself out. Trudeau prefers to be under-estimated before a fight. 

Brachina

 Mulcair doesn't wear out, he's the grizzily. That's the thing about waiting for your oppenent to wear themselves out, its a gamble that they wear out before you drop, its a bet that worked on Patrick, but it won't work on Mulcair, Mulcair too tough, too smart, and has the energy to run circles around the kid.

Jacob Two-Two

A good fighter won't punch themselves out and will save enough energy to finish the fight, and while you're hanging in there waiting for the other guy to wear down, they're scoring all the points. By the time you decide to join in, it's too late. You've lost every round and only a TKO can win, but your opponent doesn't need to fight anymore. They just need to get to the finish. They fight defensively, the fight ends and you lose.

Basically, the strategy you're applauding only works if your opponent doesn't know how to fight. If you're right and Justin is expecting the campaign to go the way the match with Brazeau went, then he is already toast. Brazeau was a bad fighter. Mulcair is not a bad campaigner.

Debater

Well, actually, Mulcair has had some challenges of his own thus far.

He hasn't been that successful a campaigner and has had trouble translating NDP support into votes at the ballot box.

He still remains in 3rd place.

The other factor that is getting overlooked here is Stephen Harper.  How does Tom Mulcair intend to beat him?

NorthReport

Actually Ipsos Reid with their polling out yesterday has Trudeau in last place behind Mulcair. This is probably why Trudeau is lashing out today, but if the glove fits........

Jacob Two-Two

Harper is already beaten. No swing voters will be coming back to him. Low thirties will be his ceiling for this election. Odds are good he will come out lower than that. He only way he could "win" is if the Liberals step out of the way and let him be Prime Minister like they did before. If they have the sense not to let that happen, then another Harper government is not in the cards.

Mulcair has always been a successful campaigner. The campaign hasn't started yet.

Sean in Ottawa

These polls showing the Conservatives dropping below the NDP in available vote make sense.

Polls have shown for a long time that most Liberals see the NDP as a second choice and the NDP see the Liberals as a second choice. The Conservative base would probably consider self immolation as a more viable second choice than either the NDP or Liberals.

Some Conservatives could be attracted to the rather right-leaning Trudeau. Even if the Liberals lost twice as many votes to the NDP by leaning right any gain he gets from the Conservatives reduces the chance the Conservatives can win.

It is possible Trudeau could help reduce the Conservatives by being a lot like them given that those who are most upset with this are more likely to go to the NDP than the Conservatives.

I don't think the Conservative numbers are good at all-- they have increased in Quebec and are still close to ten points below where they were in 2011. This means that the Conservatives could well be extremely inefficient in votes to seats.

The big key is of course Ontario. This is the prize that Trudeau hopes will give him the numbers. But even a minor shift in any direction can completely change both the provincial and national maths.

Marco C

Sadly JT might be right about Ontario giving him numbers.

 

If the polls are to be believed the Cons and Lib will split the seats with ndp holding on to what they have. It's a massive mountain for the NDP to scale here. I've already been out canvasing in my riding and and it's interesting to hear from people and then compare it to what people in other province's say.

 

That being said at this moment if nothing much changes in the campagn, then the conservatives will be rduced to a plurality and the liberals will still be the thrid party.

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

Actually Ipsos Reid with their polling out yesterday has Trudeau in last place behind Mulcair. This is probably why Trudeau is lashing out today, but if the glove fits........

Uh, I thought we'd already covered this.

Ipsos = pro-Conservative

Ipsos = predicted Tim Hudak would win a big Majority in 2014

Ipsos = at odds with Nanos, EKOS & other polls

Marco C

Every pollster is at odds with everyother pollster.

 

And that didn't stop Liveral posters from decrying the resurection of liberal domination.

Debater

APRIL 14

NANOS ON THE NUMBERS

Do they have the qualities of a good leader?

Trudeau - 56.7%

Harper - 54.5%

Mulcair - 52.6%

--

Preferred Prime Minister

Harper - 30.5

Trudeau - 30.2

Mulcair - 19.3%

--

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers

Aristotleded24

Brachina wrote:
Mulcair doesn't wear out, he's the grizzily. That's the thing about waiting for your oppenent to wear themselves out, its a gamble that they wear out before you drop, its a bet that worked on Patrick, but it won't work on Mulcair, Mulcair too tough, too smart, and has the energy to run circles around the kid.

Reminds me of that episode of Simpsons when Homer decided to become a boxer.

Rokossovsky

Pondering wrote:

 

nicky wrote:
Not an insider like you then Pondering?

I'm not an insider.

I do like to drill down into information:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6819

  • Someone you can trust: Harper (36%, +5), Mulcair (32%, +2) Trudeau (31%, -7)
  • Someone who will get things done: Harper (39%, +4), Trudeau (31%, -7), Mulcair (30%, +4)
  • Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada: Harper (40%, +3), Trudeau (32%, -5), Mulcair, (29%, +3)
  • Someone who is best to manage during tough economic times: Harper (45%, +2), Mulcair (28%, +1), Trudeau (27%, -3)
  • Someone who wants to be Prime Minister for the right reasons: Harper (36%, +5), Mulcair (33%, +2), Trudeau (31%, -7)
  • Someone who has a vision of Canada that you can support: Harper (37%, +5), Trudeau (33%, -7), Mulcair (30%, +2)
  • Someone who will provide an open, responsible and ethical government: Mulcair (34%, +2), Trudeau (33%, -5), Harper (32%, +1)
  • Someone who will best lead and represent Canada on the world stage: Harper (39%, +3), Trudeau (33%, -7), Mulcair (28%, +4)
  • Someone whose values best represent my own: Harper (36%, +4), Trudeau (33%, -3), Mulcair (31%, -1)
  • Someone who will promote democracy and its processes effectively: Harper (34%, +3), Mulcair (34%, +3), Trudeau (33%, -5)
  • Someone who has a hidden agenda: Harper (48%, -4), Trudeau (33%, +1), Mulcair (19%, +3)

Personally I find these number disheartening but not for the reasons you think I should.

  • Someone you can trust: Harper (36%, +5), Mulcair (32%, +2) Trudeau (31%, -7)

Harper is the most trustworthy but they are all pretty close.

  • Someone who will get things done: Harper (39%, +4), Trudeau (31%, -7), Mulcair (30%, +4)
  • Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada: Harper (40%, +3), Trudeau (32%, -5), Mulcair, (29%, +3)
  • Someone who is best to manage during tough economic times: Harper (45%, +2), Mulcair (28%, +1), Trudeau (27%, -3)

Harper is the big winner on the administrative front. Those are majority numbers. We can't assume that people vote based on these considerations evenly.

I won't comment on the rest of these now but I don't think they are encouraging numbers for progressives for reasons other than the next election.

I see why, having to comment on probably the most influential attribute of them all would be the one that Mulcair leads in would be hard for you I know:

Quote:
Someone who will provide an open, responsible and ethical government: Mulcair (34%, +2), Trudeau (33%, -5), Harper (32%, +1)

Rokossovsky

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

These polls showing the Conservatives dropping below the NDP in available vote make sense.

Polls have shown for a long time that most Liberals see the NDP as a second choice and the NDP see the Liberals as a second choice. The Conservative base would probably consider self immolation as a more viable second choice than either the NDP or Liberals.

It's ok if they don't vote.

thorin_bane

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-s-liberals-lose-lead-to-t...

NDP gains come in Ontario, B.C.

Liberals votes appear to be trickling to the New Democrats in the areas the party can least afford. In Ontario, where the Conservatives are holding steady with 37 per cent, the Liberals have dropped four points in two months to 35 per cent. The NDP, meanwhile, has picked up three points, sitting at 19 per cent.

With those numbers, the Conservatives could take 49 to 65 seats, with the Liberals winning 40 to 57 and the NDP pocketing 14 to 17.

The NDP is also taking support away from the Liberals in another battleground province. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied with 29 per cent apiece in British Columbia, but that represents a drop of five points over the past two months for the Liberals. The NDP has increased its share by five points to 27 per cent.
___________
The Liberals, at 25 per cent, are holding steady. But the federal NDP has replicated some of the provincial NDP's gains in Alberta, increasing its support by seven points in the last two months. They now stand at 19 per cent, and could conceivably be in the running for two to three seats. The Liberals could win four to seven, with the Tories taking the remaining 23 to 28.

Hmm sounds like Orange wave number 2 coming.

 

NorthReport

Interesting term being used here to describe the Trudeau Liberals.

Trudeau and the Liberals have been losing support for months now but............... 

Team Operation Alienation™ will tell themselves “It’s just Ipsos.” 

 http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/04/team-operation-alienation-will-tell-th...

 

josh

NorthReport wrote:

 

Team Operation Alienation™ will tell themselves “It’s just Ipsos.” 

 http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/04/team-operation-alienation-will-tell-th...

 

 

Yeah, I think that's what former Premier Wynne's team used to tell themselves.

Debater

josh wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

 

Team Operation Alienation™ will tell themselves “It’s just Ipsos.” 

 http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/04/team-operation-alienation-will-tell-th...

 

 

Yeah, I think that's what former Premier Wynne's team used to tell themselves.

Nice one, Josh! Smile

Debater

Liberals top on the Nanos Index, NDP and Greens trending up, Harper and Tories trending down

(Released 04/15/2015)

Nanos tracking is now fully into the period that includes the Duffy trial –the last two weeks of polling suggests a slide for Harper on the preferred PM front, having the qualities of a good leader and also the level of accessible voters for the Tories. The Liberals remain steady while now both the NDP and the Greens are trending positively in the Nanos Party Power Index.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Excellent!

Polls suggest support for NDP increasing at Liberal’s expense

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/polls-suggest-support-fo...

Debater

Excellent for the Conservatives.

NDP gaining from the Liberals, but NDP is not taking away Conservative votes.

This proves what I've been saying for the past several years.  A rise in the NDP vote benefits the Conservatives.

So why are you saying "Excellent"?

Debater

Canadians are following the Duffy Trial with interest and anger: Poll

Apr 18, 2015

As dull and dragging as it's sometimes been, Canadians are following the trial of suspended Sen. Mike Duffy with interest, a new poll suggests.

And it's only making them angrier about the state of the Senate.

Ten days into Duffy's fraud and breach of trust trial, a majority (62%) of respondents to the Mainstreet Technologies survey, released Saturday, say they are following the trial. And 78% believe misuse of Senate funds is widespread.

"The trial and its revelations about policies and procedures for oversight of senator expenses provides people with a glimpse into the Senate, a body that is not usually under any public scrutiny," Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said.

---

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2015/04/18/22351311.html

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Debater wrote:

Excellent for the Conservatives.

NDP gaining from the Liberals, but NDP is not taking away Conservative votes.

This proves what I've been saying for the past several years.  A rise in the NDP vote benefits the Conservatives.

So why are you saying "Excellent"?

Simply because it is necessary for the NDP to eliminate the Liberals as a possible winner before they can get a clear shot at the Cons.

Pondering

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Debater wrote:

Excellent for the Conservatives.

NDP gaining from the Liberals, but NDP is not taking away Conservative votes.

This proves what I've been saying for the past several years.  A rise in the NDP vote benefits the Conservatives.

So why are you saying "Excellent"?

Simply because it is necessary for the NDP to eliminate the Liberals as a possible winner before they can get a clear shot at the Cons.

The NDP has been following that tactic since at least 2005 and it has delivered nothing but Harper governments. Maybe if we eliminated the Conservatives the NDP would become the natural alternative to the Liberals as no party holds power forever.

Stockholm

Debater wrote:

Excellent for the Conservatives.

NDP gaining from the Liberals, but NDP is not taking away Conservative votes.

This proves what I've been saying for the past several years.  A rise in the NDP vote benefits the Conservatives.

So why are you saying "Excellent"?

You've got it all wrong - where is the NDP gaining these days? They are gaining in Alberta - that puts a couple of  Conservative seats in Edmonton in jeopardy from the NDP. the Liberals have zilch in Alberta so it does them no harm. The NDP is also up on average in BC - in BC there are quite a few seats that the Conservatives won by very narrow margins over the NDP last election - and NDP increase in BC means a Conservative decline. The liberals only have two seats in BC so it has no impact on them. The NDP is also doing better in Quebec these days - surely its good news if the NDP numbers rise in Quebec since that can help foil the Conservative plan to win back seats from the NDP in the Quebec City area. Its all good!

Jacob Two-Two

The Liberals delivered the first Harper government by refusing to work with the other opposition parties to remove him. If there had been any doubt before, that incident proved how pointless it is to support the Liberal party. The Conservatives, for all their weaknesses, still have a broad swath of rock-solid support. There is no chance that they will dissolve in the near future. The Liberals, on the other hand, are on a precipice. If they don't impress Canadians in this election, they will implode completely, and their supporters will run to the NDP, a party that actually stands for something. A definite improvement in Canada's political landscape. I sincerely hope that Justin continues his trend of being a useless twit, and the Liberal party continues its trend of losing support in each election. Will it be 12% this time? Maybe 8%?

adma

Debater wrote:
This proves what I've been saying for the past several years.  A rise in the NDP vote benefits the Conservatives.

In Ontario, in 2014, the ONDP snatched Oshawa from the Cons--and the Liberal vote in Oshawa rose anyway!

NorthReport

For the last six elections in a row, the Liberals have received less votes on voting day, and sometimes significantly less votes, than they had in the polls six months out.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-election-2015-can-polls-6-months...

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

What we know as a fact is that a vote for the Liberals is a vote for the Conservatives. Through successive Conservative minority governments, Liberals have propped Harper up at the expense of the Canadian people.

Trudeau will not cooperate with the NDP, which means that if he gets a minority (which is all he can be trusted with now) he is going to have to look for some cooperation from another party. This could work for him if the Conservatives become a third-party rump and the NDP form the opposition.

Debater

@niknanos says Harper can thank suspended Sen. Mike Duffy for his drop in preferred PM poll.

https://twitter.com/CTV_PowerPlay/status/590993865097740288

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater wrote:

@niknanos says Harper can thank suspended Sen. Mike Duffy for his drop in preferred PM poll.

https://twitter.com/CTV_PowerPlay/status/590993865097740288

John 8:7 Debater.

NorthReport

What's good about the Nanos poll is that they have confirmed NDP support at 25%

Now Mulcair has to continue what he has been doing and move Trudeau out of the way so that the NDP can have a clear shot at the Cons

Trudeau is turning out to be a great asset for the NDP as every time Trudeau talks move votes shift to the NDP

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