Latest polling thread Jan. 27 2015

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NorthReport

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Debater wrote:

montrealer58, you haven't said anything of relevance in that post.

The main opponent of the Conservatives are the Liberals.  They say this themselves.  So I'm not sure why you want to keep pretending it's a Conservative vs. NDP race and that the Liberals aren't a factor.

And this is the 2nd time you have said that because Justin Trudeau doesn't have anything to offer you, that should determine the way everything is decided.  Voting isn't just about what's good for you but about what is good for society as a whole.  And having the Conservatives in power is not a good thing for society so having the Liberal option available for voters to be able to defeat Stephen Harper is a good thing.

And I agree the NDP vote will probably not drop below 20%.  But it's down 10 points from the last election whereas the Liberals are dramatically up in support from the last election.  So what point are you making?

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Here are the polling results, using the process to eliminate herding, for the last election from best performance to worst performance in descending order. 

Will there be that much difference between the actual results and the pollsters in the upcoming 2015 election as there was in 2011, our last election? 

Herding:

Herding is a title given to a process that was created by a professional aggregator in the USA called Nate Silver who worked for years for the New York Times. And by-the-way, I am not aware of any aggregator in Canada that uses a process to prevent herding. What the process to prevent herding does is take the average of the last 3 weeks of polling and uses that figure divided by the numberpolls. The reason being is that some pollsters unfortunately may overinflate or underinflate the strength of certain political parties, and then just before the election, that same pollster will publish polls which are more accurate, so as to appear close to accurate. Legitimate pollstsers have nothing to worry about when the process to prevent herding process is used.

It is very possible for public sentiment to change in the last week or days of an election. Also I don't answer polls with the same gravitas that I do when I actually vote.

In 2011 the Orange Crush was a late development so it is your "anti-herding" method that would skew results. Nanos does average out their own numbers over 4 weeks but I wish they didn't. It makes it more difficult to track change in sentiment based on specific events.

If any polling company were deliberately "herding" they would soon be outed. These look pretty consistent to me:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

All the polls are public so people see a range.

NorthReport

Here are the polling results, using the process to eliminate herding, for the last election from best performance to worst performance in descending order, and the most accurate pollster is Ipsos Reid.

Will there be that much difference between the actual results and the pollsters in the upcoming 2015 election as there was in 2011, our last election? 

Herding:

Herding is a title given to a process that was created by a professional aggregator in the USA called Nate Silver who worked for years for the New York Times. And by-the-way, I am not aware of any aggregator in Canada that uses a process to prevent herding. What the process to prevent herding does is take the average of the last 3 weeks of polling and uses that figure divided by the numberpolls. The reason being is that some pollsters unfortunately may overinflate or underinflate the strength of certain political parties, and then just before the election, that same pollster will publish polls which are more accurate, so as to appear close to accurate. Legitimate pollstsers have nothing to worry about when the process to prevent herding process is used.

 

Federal Election 2011 Actual Results: Cons - 40%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 19%


Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 41% / 1% / 28% / 3% / 20% / 1% / 5%

Harris Decima / 36% / 4% / 30% / 1% / 21% / 2% / 7%

Angus Reid / 36% / 4% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 9%

Forum Research / 35% / 5% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 10%

Environics / 39% / 1% / 24% / 7% / 23% / 4% / 12%

Leger Marketing / 37% / 3% / 27% / 4% / 24% / 5% / 12%

Abacus  / 37% / 3% / 26% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 13%

EKOS / 35% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 15%

Nanos Research / 39% / 1% / 23% / 8% / 27% / 8% / 17%

Compas / 46% / 6% / 21% / 10% / 21% / 2% / 18%

 Innovative Research / 39% / 1% / 19% / 12% / 27% / 8% / 21%


Silver's website is: www.fivethirtyeight.com

 

NorthReport

It's kind of interesting, and surprised me to discover, that Ipsos Reid was the most accurate pollster here for the 2011 federal election.

Maybe we should take a look again at Ipsos Reid's most recent federal poll:

Cons - 35%

NDP - 24% - the NDP are clearly in the mid-twenties

Libs - 31%

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6728

Perhaps that is why they are the pollster for the Ontario government.

There is no way that the public can tell for sure about the polling results from one particular pollster that are published.

And that is why Nate Silver, the most professional and accurate polling analyst in North America at least, and who has a track record to prove it, adopted a process in his polling analysis to prevent herding.

Will there be such wide differences as there was for the 2011 election when we do an analysis of the polling for the 2015 election?

---------------

920

 

NorthReport

What is it that Ipsos Reid does differently that makes it so accurate, most of the time?

josh

NorthReport wrote:

What is it that Ipsos Reid does differently that makes it so accurate, most of the time?

You're back, peddling this crap? I guess you figure that if you keep your head down for 6 months or so, no one will remember. Do you work for them? Or just simply a shill?

Jacob Two-Two

I don't trust Ipsos or Forum in the least. I really think 2011 is a bad example to base your analysis on because unlike most elections there actually was a swift and significant shift in support near the end. Ipsos typically pumps up Con and NDP numbers while undercutting Lib numbers. Same with Harris Decima. It just so happened that their natural biases matched up with the shift that was happening away from the Libs and towards the Cons and NDP.

Brachina

 I don't trust any of them.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Polls or not polls, I remain convinced the NDP sits somewhere 24 and 27% and is in a better positioon to defeat Harper then the Liberals. There is simply not going to be real change by swapping "White" Cats for "Black Cats". They are the same party but with different power elites. The only way to beat Harper is to vote NDP. The fact that Trudeau is attacking the NDP shows the Libs know it. Quebec is going to vote NDP again, and the NDP's current levels of support are not going to decrease. Polls or not, if Harper wins, it'll be because so called Blue Libs, again vote Tory. In other words, Liberals will show once again they prefer Harper and his gang of thugs over the NDP, anytime. It'll be entirely, and solely, the Libs fault again!

Northern-54

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
I don't trust Ipsos or Forum in the least. I really think 2011 is a bad example to base your analysis on because unlike most elections there actually was a swift and significant shift in support near the end. Ipsos typically pumps up Con and NDP numbers while undercutting Lib numbers. Same with Harris Decima. It just so happened that their natural biases matched up with the shift that was happening away from the Libs and towards the Cons and NDP.

 

The major shift was not that close to the end of the election.  It was between three and four weeks before the election (though there was evidence of a shift slightly before that and some pollsters, most notably NANOS, that did not show signs of it until signficantly after).  I was somewhat surprised that EKOS caught the shift relatively early as I've trusted their polls the least for years as they have a history of plumping up the Liberal/Green vote and under-reporting NDP support. 

The smaller shift in the last couple of days was away from the Liberals, particularly in suburban Ontario, where Liberal voters shifted to the Conservatives to prevent an NDP victory.  Ironically, the shift took place in ridings where the NDP had little chance to win and meant a loss of otherwise Liberal seats which would have denied the Conservatives a majority.

I think the 2011 election was a fine example of herding. 

NorthReport

That's understandable Brachina, as we have no way to know when a pollster publishes a poll whether or not it is accurate, and after all politics is a dirty game, unfortunately. Doing an analysis which prevents herding after an election is over is really the only way to know for sure what was going on with the pollsters. And yes last election there was a significant shift as mentioned by JTT, so the pollsters may have a better record for other elections. The 2011 election is the only one that I have done an analysis on federally. If someone else wants to do an analysis on another federal election that would be great. 

I did an analysis on the 2011 election and Ipsos Reid appears to have been the most accurate, and their most recent poll is showing the NDP in the mid-twenties. And yes ia couple of percentage points, one way or another way, amongst the 3 parties does matter, and that can be the reason why some attempt to discredit this pollstser or that pollster. As I mentioned after my analysis I was surprised Ipsos Reid was the most accurate for the 2011 election.

Another interesting analysis would be how each of the 3 parties do during an actual election campaign.

1,050 (+230) 

josh
Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

josh wrote:
">http://www.probe-research.com/documents/150129%20Westman%20Federal%20Par...

Do you live in Manitoba, Josh? I do. People hate Selinger cause the MSM is telling them to. Whatever, Josh.

Winston

I think everyone can agree that the polls are bad right now, for the NDP and the Liberals. The fact is that the Liberals' and MSM's strategy of manufacturing a two-horse race with Harper and Trudeau going head-to-head is doomed to failure. Justin Trudeau just doesn't have the substance or competence to beat Harper. Even Liberal sympathizers I know acknowledge that Justin is a bit of an embarrassment, "but we HAVE to get rid of Harper, no matter what." Well unless things change, many people are going to go to the ballot box, compare their "two" choices, plug their noses and vote for Harper again.

Unless the NDP rebounds over the next several months, giving people the option of a competent alternative, look forward to 4 more years of Harper.

 

Brachina

Winston wrote:

I think everyone can agree that the polls are bad right now, for the NDP and the Liberals. The fact is that the Liberals' and MSM's strategy of manufacturing a two-horse race with Harper and Trudeau going head-to-head is doomed to failure. Justin Trudeau just doesn't have the substance or competence to beat Harper. Even Liberal sympathizers I know acknowledge that Justin is a bit of an embarrassment, "but we HAVE to get rid of Harper, no matter what." Well unless things change, many people are going to go to the ballot box, compare their "two" choices, plug their noses and vote for Harper again.

Unless the NDP rebounds over the next several months, giving people the option of a competent alternative, look forward to 4 more years of Harper.

 

 

 I agree, except I think its possible for the rebound to happen during the election and it might be more likely because Mulcair will finally have the publics attention enough to prove his worth.

scott16

Can someone tell me what Mulcair's unknown/undecided polling numbers are currently?

Pondering

Winston wrote:
I think everyone can agree that the polls are bad right now, for the NDP and the Liberals.

The Liberals are doing great in the polls.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/20150116_slide1.jpg

All they have to do is bide their time until the election is called then release a credible platform.

Winston wrote:
  The fact is that the Liberals' and MSM's strategy of manufacturing a two-horse race with Harper and Trudeau going head-to-head is doomed to failure.

It has been a two horse race since Trudeau became leader of the Liberal party.

Winston wrote:
  Justin Trudeau just doesn't have the substance or competence to beat Harper. Even Liberal sympathizers I know acknowledge that Justin is a bit of an embarrassment, "but we HAVE to get rid of Harper, no matter what."

Liberal supporters don't see Trudeau as an embarrassment at all.

Winston wrote:
Well unless things change, many people are going to go to the ballot box, compare their "two" choices, plug their noses and vote for Harper again.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/samuel-getachew/justin-trudeau-federal-elec...

Trudeau is the most impressive, practical, and smart political leader since the Jean Chrétien era. Since taking over a near-bankrupt, third place, humiliated party less than two years ago, he has made it a growing political movement. The party is now well-organized, better funded, and has attracted strong candidates and volunteers that truly represent the new Canada. This was not achieved by way of political anointment or appointment, but by way of a fair and open political organization and competition.

Trudeau has the luck of being underestimated, like Jean Chrétien was, and the intelligence to turn to experienced people the way Pierre Trudeau and Lester B. Pearson did. Perhaps like all Liberals, there is the will to win in his blood. Given his family pedigree, perhaps the will to win is not only powerful but predestined. Yet if he achieves victory, it will not be just because of his last name, but because he works hard, performs well, knows his weaknesses, and plays to his strengths.

NorthReport

Just try to ignore the silliness in the previous post.

-------------

Scott that's indeed an excellent question and indeed why the NDP will do very well in the actual election. People are starting to get to know Trudeau now because he is being plastered all over the media and that is why the Liberals numbers have been dropping off, and are no longer the front runners they have been during the usless or who cares period.

scott16 wrote:

Can someone tell me what Mulcair's unknown/undecided polling numbers are currently?

nicky

Scott, the latest poll on the question you ask is Forum

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2001%2028)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

While I don't put too much faith in Forum it is broadly in agreement with other recent polls on leadership, although a little low for the NDP and high for the Liberals.

Harper: + 34 - 56 ? 10  overall -22

Trudeau: +43 -37     ? 20  overall +6

Mulcair: +40  - 29    ? 31  overall +11

If you eliminate the unknowns then it is 37% positive for Harper, 53 for Trudeau and 58 for Mulcair.

In Quebec:

Harper +30 -60 ie 33% positive

Trudeau +33 -44 = 43% positive

Mulcair +50 -25  = 67% positive.

So it does seem that Mulcair's nmbers may rise when he is better known

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Whether the NDP is at 20% or 24% is not too important. If it goes below 18% and keeps plummeting I would wonder. Historically, they are in a better position than they have been in a long time.

 

 

 

Jacob Two-Two

The last abacus and Angus Reid polls both had the NDP at 22%. The other numbers were nearly identical as well. Based on the fact that both have good track records and both agree with each other, I think it's fair to say these are close to the real numbers. Con and Liberal tied in the low thirties, NDP in the low twenties.

NorthReport

The NDP received 31% of the votes on May 2, 2011.

Here are some polling results for the NDP just before the last election was called, compared to what votes they actually received, and the difference:

Date - Pollster - Mar '11 - Actual Election

Mar 24 '11 - AR - 19% - 31%, Up 12%

Mar 24 24 '11 - LM - 19% - 31%, Up 12%

Mar 24 '11 - EKOS - 14% - 31%, Up 17%

Mar 23 '11 - IR - 16% - 31%, Up 15%

Mar 20 '11 - HD - 17% - 31%, Up 14% 

Mar 16 ' 11 - EKOS - 16% - 31%, Up 15%

Mar 15 '11 - NR - 20% - 31%, Up 11%

What's significant is not one single solitary pollster had an inkling what was coming, so when people start basing seat projections on polls that may well be 10 months away from a election, it is based entirely on voodoo science. Nothing more, and nothing less. Anyone posting seat projections right now is just trying to manipulate the voters. 

 

welder welder's picture

NorthReport wrote:

The NDP received 31% of the votes on May 2, 2011.

Here are some polling results for the NDP just before the last election was called, compared to what votes they actually received, and the difference:

Date - Pollster - Mar '11 - Actual Election

Mar 24 '11 - AR - 19% - 31%, Up 12%

Mar 24 24 '11 - LM - 19% - 31%, Up 12%

Mar 24 '11 - EKOS - 14% - 31%, Up 17%

Mar 23 '11 - IR - 16% - 31%, Up 15%

Mar 20 '11 - HD - 17% - 31%, Up 14% 

Mar 16 ' 11 - EKOS - 16% - 31%, Up 15%

Mar 15 '11 - NR - 20% - 31%, Up 11%

What's significant is not one single solitary pollster had an inkling what was coming, so when people start basing seat projections on polls that may well be 10 months away from a election, it is based entirely on voodoo science. Nothing more, and nothing less. Anyone posting seat projections right now is just trying to manipulate the voters. 

 

 

Of course,using that logic about pollsters one could also conclude that the NDP could be headed for a massive collapse....Assuming the polsters are using "voodoo science" and have no idea if the NDP is at 20%???

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Seat projections are a joke. You would need samples of 10,000, and that would cost you $250,000 at least.

If you look at the wikipedia page for recent Canadian polls, they were all collected by Interactive Voice Response (IVR) or Internet. No one is calling and filling out sheets any more. All of the data they receive have to be filtered. To actually get a filled out sheet of what a real person thinks has always been expensive. By using IVR and Internet, these pollsters think they can save money. They have a client for the survey and they have to produce it for less than what they are being paid. Produce some dazzling charts and graphs which look about right and run with the money. How do you even know if it is adult voting Canadian citizens answering the IVRs? How do you know that offshore home-workers are not spoofing Canadian IPs so as to earn money doing Canadian Internet surveys? God bless'em. Put me down for NDP!

With "herding" I suppose you are using the same (expensive) piece of data at least twice. More sloppy procedures. If you have a statistics analyser you can take polls from other companies and work the data into yet more summaries. "Moving averages" and more and more charting wonders from the world of stocks and bonds. We want hot zones, candlesticks, and stochastics! 

And someone will look at all of these feces uncritically. Do you think even the media care what the numbers are? They just pay for them so they can have something to put up there. They know as well as we do that there is only one poll, and the rest is spin.

Trudeau can't get the centre-left vote who voted for Chretien and put the NDP in the doldrums for over a decade. Trudeau can't get into the top 2 in Quebec, and he can't hold Ontario. He needs to lead in one of those two administrative subdivisions. Harper is leading in Ontario, Mulcair is leading in Quebec, so there is nothing there for Trudeau. If Trudeau keeps sliding in the polls, he gets hit hard in the FPTP consequences. In the mid-to-high 20s, Trudeau will start getting PC Party-itis.

The sooner the Liberal Party goes the way of the PC Party of Canada, the better. 

NorthReport

Applying the process to prevent herding in the Oct 14, 2008 Election

Election Results: C - 38%,  N - 18%,   L - 26%,  B - 10%

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Bloc / Dif / Total Difference

Angus Reid / 38% / 0% / 26% / 0% / 19% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 1% - Phenomenal Results

Ipsos Reid / 37% 1% / 18% / 0% / 25% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 2% - Amazin' results as well 

Strategic Counsel / 36% / 2% / 27% / 1% / 19% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 4% - Not bad! 

Nanos / 36% / 2% / 20% / 2% / 26% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 5%

Segma / 35% / 1% / 23% / 3% / 21% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 6%

Harris Decima / 35% / 3% / 19% / 1% / 26% / 1% / 9% / 1% / 6% 

EKOS / 35% / 3%  / 19% / 1% / 24% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 6%

 


We can now put to bed the nonsense that Ipsos Reid is not an accurate pollster, eh! 

*Environics did publish a poll outside the 3 week analysis period used to prevent herding on Sep 2, 2008 as follows:

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Bloc / Dif / Total Difference 

Environics / 38% / 2% / 19% / 1% / 28% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 5%

-------------------------------------------------------------

1370 (+320)

 

NorthReport

So now let's combine the track records using the anaysis to prevent herding for the 2008 and 2011 federal elections*

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

EKOS / 11%

Nanos / 11%

 

*The Bloc results have been excluded from the stats



NorthReport

Like what has been expressed here many times by others, I used to believe that Ipso Reid was not that accurate, and that they favoured the right wing. 

Now, after doing the analysis to prevent herding, it's apparent I was incorrect and that it actually is Ipsos Reid that is probably Canada's most accurate federal pollster, followed by Angus Reid.

So based on this analysis I can confidently say the NDP is polling in the mid-twenties, and puts the NDP within striking distance of grabing that brass ring in October, 2015.  Smile

 

NorthReport

The current polls remind me of when Liberal Paul Martin (you know the Liberal progressive left-wing leader who put his companies Canada Steamship Lines offshore to avoid Canadian income taxes, Canadian environmental laws, and Canadian labour laws, cool, eh) got elected Liberal leader, and mouthpieces like Scott Reid, and yes still around, was mouthing off how Martin was going to win 250 seats.

That was Liberal nonsense then just as is the Liberal nonsense now.

Different leader same nonsense.

Debater

montrealer58 wrote:

Trudeau can't get the centre-left vote who voted for Chretien and put the NDP in the doldrums for over a decade. Trudeau can't get into the top 2 in Quebec, and he can't hold Ontario. He needs to lead in one of those two administrative subdivisions. Harper is leading in Ontario, Mulcair is leading in Quebec, so there is nothing there for Trudeau. If Trudeau keeps sliding in the polls, he gets hit hard in the FPTP consequences. In the mid-to-high 20s, Trudeau will start getting PC Party-itis.

The sooner the Liberal Party goes the way of the PC Party of Canada, the better. 

1.  The Trudeau Liberals have been polling in 1st or 2nd in Quebec for the past 2 years.  Not sure what you mean when you say 'Trudeau can't get into the top 2 in Quebec'.  Btw, the most recent polls from Quebec pollsters (eg. CROP & Leger) had Trudeau ahead of Mulcair in Quebec prior to the Christmas holidays.

2.  The Trudeau Liberals have also been polling 1st or 2nd in Ontario for the past 2 years.  It's the NDP that is polling a distant 3rd in Ontario, so again I'm not sure what Ontario numbers you are looking at.  The NDP is projected to do pretty badly in the seat projections for Ontario right now on 308.com

3.  And if there was no Liberal Party, it would be even harder to vote out the Conservatives.  Why do you think the Conservatives view the Liberals as a threat?  They're the only ones that can take red tory & blue liberal votes away from the Conservatives.  These voters will go Conservative to block the NDP if they have to.  We saw that in 2011 in Ontario.

Debater

Grits on the rise in Western Manitoba?

February 1st, 2015

A new poll is out this weekend that suggests Grit fortunes in this traditionally Conservative heartland are on the rise.

The poll was done Jan 11 to Jan 26  by Probe Research Inc. and was commissioned by the Brandon Sun. Probe polled, by telephone, 803 residents of western Manitoba, in the ridings of Brandon-Souris and in Dauphin-Swan RIver-Marquette, ridings held respectively by Maguire and Conservative Robert Sopuck.

---

In Brandon-Souris it found that 44% would vote for Maguire while 36% would vote for Justin Trudeau’s candidate. Just 10% would cast a ballot for Thomas Mulcair’s NDP.

---

In Dauphin, Sopuck and the Conservatives are the preferred pick of 46% of voters compared to 34% for the Liberals and 11% for the NDP. Historically, this riding too reliably picks the small-conservative candidate going back to 1958. 

---

http://blogs.canoe.ca/davidakin/politics/grits-on-the-rise-in-western-ma...

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

2.  The Trudeau Liberals have also been polling 1st or 2nd in Ontario for the past 2 years.  It's the NDP that is polling a distant 3rd in Ontario, so again I'm not sure what Ontario numbers you are looking at.  The NDP is projected to do pretty badly in the seat projections for Ontario right now on 308.com

You mean in a distant second as of the last poll in Ontario. I guess because the grave error of giving Kathleen Wynne a majority is beginning to sink in: cutting budgets to health care and education; closing schools; selling crown assets and another 8b in losses through P3s.

Heh. That was a real bomb dropping that list of 150 schools in the GTA to be put on the chopping block.

I thought that was a funny exchange between Thibeault and the PC candidate in that debate where he started going on about Harris and 100,000 job vuts, with her retorting "at least we said they were coming, when you are quitely laying off nurses" or something to that effect.

At this rate Harper should be able to spend all his time campaigning in the Prairies and BC, with Kathleen Wynne the "Privatization Premier", helping him out in Ontario.

The bottom of the lake is the limit at this rate.

Debater

Rokossovsky wrote:

Debater wrote:

2.  The Trudeau Liberals have also been polling 1st or 2nd in Ontario for the past 2 years.  It's the NDP that is polling a distant 3rd in Ontario, so again I'm not sure what Ontario numbers you are looking at.  The NDP is projected to do pretty badly in the seat projections for Ontario right now on 308.com

You mean in a distant second as of the last poll in Ontario.

Which poll are you referring to?  Would you cite the name of it, please?  I don't get it when people refer to some vague poll on here without citing which one they are referencing.

I think the most recent poll (the Forum one) had the Liberals ahead by 5 in Ontario.  But it was a weird poll because of the high Con numbers in Quebec.

Rokossovsky

Quote:
In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41%, up 4 points) have surged past the Liberals (34%, down 3 points), breaking the dead heat the parties showed late last year, with the NDP (21%, down 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change) playing catch up.

Ipsos Ried

I guess because the grave error of giving Kathleen Wynne a majority is beginning to sink in: cutting budgets to health care and education; closing schools; selling crown assets and another 8b in losses through P3s.

Heh. That was a real bomb dropping that list of 150 schools in the GTA to be put on the chopping block.

I thought that was a funny exchange between Thibeault and the PC candidate in that debate where he started going on about Harris and 100,000 job vuts, with her retorting "at least we said they were coming, when you are quitely laying off nurses" or something to that effect.

At this rate Harper should be able to spend all his time campaigning in the Prairies and BC, with Kathleen Wynne the "Privatization Premier", helping him out in Ontario.

The bottom of the lake is the limit at this rate.

Rokossovsky

I figures the Liberals will lose one seat in Toronto for each school they close in the GTA.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

So on this thread, like every other one where LPC partisans, its become pretty obvious that we need to vote Liberal because...HARPER. Then when it is pointed out that LIBERALS like Wynn are cutting everything left right and center, runnnig deficits and selling out the public with money losingP3s, its either....CRICKETS, or, at least its not Harper.

Or the other beaut we get is well, he's going to tell us campaign but doesn't want anyone else to steal it, a childish notion. A truly, truly, chilidish notion. And this is despite the fact that Trudeau says he wants P3s even after the Wynnn experience shows its a bad idea.

And of course, the real joke in all of this, is then we New Dems get told WE ARE THE IDEOLOGUES, even though the Libs stick to things that have been CLEARLY SHOW NOT TO WORK!

It is mind boggling, truly mind boggling. And if that isn't enough, there are other people on this board who claim to be neutral or whatever the hell else they are who complain about "partisanship", with almost all of that aimed at NDP supporters.

Well, voting Liberal doens't get rid of Tory policies. So why don't all you Libs just be honest and admit its TOTALLY about power, and that you tihnk if in the process, maybe Trudeau does something good, that would be nice?

Seriously, how about all you Lib partisans start engaging in some real adult conversation, just for once?

 

NorthReport

Bingo!

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Voting Liberal doens't get rid of Tory policies. 

 

Debater

Rokossovsky wrote:

Quote:
In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41%, up 4 points) have surged past the Liberals (34%, down 3 points), breaking the dead heat the parties showed late last year, with the NDP (21%, down 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change) playing catch up.

Ipsos Ried

Ipsos Reid, as we know, overestimates Conservative support in Ontario (eg. last year's Ontario election).

This poll is also almost a month old.  It came out before all of the bad economic news.

Since then, both Nanos & Forum have come out showing the Liberals with higher numbers.

And the new Probe poll even shows the Liberals doing well in Manitoba, which isn't usually a Liberal stronghold.

Debater

No, they are showing the NDP in one poll at 24%.  That's not the mid-20's.  The NDP's overall national average is about 21% right now.  Check the aggregate polling average on 308.com

And Ipsos Reid has a history of inflating Conservative numbers going back many, many years.  As far back as the 2000 Election, their polling claimed Jéan Chrétien would only win a Minority.

And in 2011, their first poll of the election had Harper over 40% at about 41% or 42%.  He didn't even hit 40% on election night.

NorthReport

In contrast to the inuendo above, Ipsos Reid was actually the most accurate pollster during the last 2 federal elections in Canada and they currently are showing the NDP in the mid-twenties. 

So now let's combine the track records using the anaysis to prevent herding for the 2008 and 2011 federal elections*

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

EKOS / 11%

Nanos / 11%



Debater
Debater

So 20.6% is the NDP's current National Average.

With 33.7% for the Liberals and 32.4% for the Conservatives.

Debater
NorthReport

Unfortunately the previous two post and the one following are incorrect.

308 works for the CBC and we all know who they support.

Ipsos Reid is the most accurate federal pollster as the statistics show, and they are currently showing the NDP with 24% support which is indeed in the mid-twenties.

NorthReport wrote:

In contrast to the inuendo above, Ipsos Reid was actually the most accurate pollster during the last 2 federal elections in Canada and they currently are showing the NDP in the mid-twenties. 

So now let's combine the track records using the anaysis to prevent herding for the 2008 and 2011 federal elections*

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

EKOS / 11%

Nanos / 11%



NorthReport

Rallying Harper Tories (35%) Break Stalemate and Shoot to Early 2015 Lead Over Liberals (31%) and NDP (24%)Trudeau Grits Falter as Ontario, Quebec Show a Turn Towards Tories

Examining Key Battleground Races…

A new election year also brings with it a change in electoral boundaries, with the addition of 30 new ridings to Canada’s electoral map. This will make key battleground races even more crucial to attaining victory in Canada’s 42nd federal election.

  • In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41%, up 4 points) have surged past the Liberals (34%, down 3 points), breaking the dead heat the parties showed late last year, with the NDP (21%, down 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change) playing catch up.
  • In Quebec, the NDP (31%, up 2 points) have bypassed the Liberal (24%, down 8 points) lead seen at the end of 2014, with the resurgent Bloc Quebecois (25%, up 4 points) jockeying with the Liberals for second place. The Conservatives (18%, up 3 points) and other parties (2%, down 1 point) lag noticeably.
  • In British Columbia, the three-way race continues, this time with the Liberals (34%, up 6 points) slightly edging the Tories (30%, down 3 points) and the NDP (28%, down 3 points) although all are within striking distance of each other, while other parties (8%, no change) trail.
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (58%, no change), as expected, continue to have a solid lead over the Liberals (23%, down 1 point), NDP (16%, up 2 points) and other parties (4%, up 1 point).
  • In Saskatchewan /Manitoba, the Conservatives (46%) hold a noticeable advantage over the Liberals (33%) and the NDP (20%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the commanding Liberal lead (41%, down 12 points) has weakened but is still prominent, still besting the NDP (29%, up 10 points), Conservatives (26%, no change), and other parties (4%, up 2 points).

The data also show a tight battle among many other demographic constituencies:

  • Among men, the Tories (37%, up 1 point) barely best the Liberals (33%, down 2 points), ahead of the NDP (22%, up 1 point), Bloc (5%, up 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change).
  • Among women, preference has shifted to the Conservatives (34%, up 4 points) and away from the Liberals (29%, down 5 points), with support for the NDP (26%, down 1 point), Bloc (7%, up 2 points) and other parties (4%, no change) remaining consistent since last month.
  • Among those aged 55+, the Tories (41%, up 2 points) continue to enjoy their traditional advantage over the Liberals (33%, up 1 point), NDP (19%, down 3 points), Bloc (3%, no change) and other parties (4%, no change).
  • Among those aged 35 to 54, tight battle seen last month has led to a clear Conservative lead (39%, up 6 points) over the Liberals (30%, down 5 points), with the NDP (21%, down 1 point), Bloc (7%, up 2 points) and other parties (3%, down 1 point) trailing.
  • Among those aged 18 to 34, the NDP (36%, up 8 points) have jumped to a solid lead over the Liberals (28%, down 9 points) and Conservatives (22%, down 2 points), while the Bloc (8%, down 1 point) and other parties (6%, up 3 points) lag.

 

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6728

Debater

Yeah, we get it.  You love Ipsos Reid and think they are the greatest thing in the universe.  That poll is a month old.  And some of us haven't forgotten about the daily Ipsos Reid posts last Spring predicting a huge Tim Hudak win in Ontario.

I'll leave the polling analysis to the independent experts like Eric Grenier & Nik Nanos.  They have more credibility than those of us posting on this message board, or those who keep trying to shill for one particular pollster.

NorthReport

Who is shilling for one particular pollster/aggregator besides yourself?

Just askin'

NorthReport wrote:

 

So now let's combine the track records using the anaysis to prevent herding for the 2008 and 2011 federal elections*

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

EKOS / 11%

Nanos / 11%

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

When the federal Liberal party is gone, it will be a great day for Canada. 

 

 

 

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

No, they are showing the NDP in one poll at 24%.  That's not the mid-20's.  The NDP's overall national average is about 21% right now.  Check the aggregate polling average on 308.com

And Ipsos Reid has a history of inflating Conservative numbers going back many, many years.  As far back as the 2000 Election, their polling claimed Jéan Chrétien would only win a Minority.

And in 2011, their first poll of the election had Harper over 40% at about 41% or 42%.  He didn't even hit 40% on election night.

And Forum routinely inflated Liberal numbers, so my immediate conclusion reading the last Forum poll, was not that the Liberals and Conservatives were in a statistical tie, but that the Liberals have fallen into 2nd place, precisely as I have been predicting.

Pretty much says everything we need to know about Trudeau's base, given that he is bleeding support to the right, and not gaining on the left.

Dead candidate. Try again in 2019.

 

 

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Rallying Harper Tories (35%) Break Stalemate and Shoot to Early 2015 Lead Over Liberals (31%) and NDP (24%)Trudeau Grits Falter as Ontario, Quebec Show a Turn Towards Tories

Examining Key Battleground Races…

A new election year also brings with it a change in electoral boundaries, with the addition of 30 new ridings to Canada’s electoral map. This will make key battleground races even more crucial to attaining victory in Canada’s 42nd federal election.

  • In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41%, up 4 points) have surged past the Liberals (34%, down 3 points), breaking the dead heat the parties showed late last year, with the NDP (21%, down 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change) playing catch up.
  • In Quebec, the NDP (31%, up 2 points) have bypassed the Liberal (24%, down 8 points) lead seen at the end of 2014, with the resurgent Bloc Quebecois (25%, up 4 points) jockeying with the Liberals for second place. The Conservatives (18%, up 3 points) and other parties (2%, down 1 point) lag noticeably.
  • In British Columbia, the three-way race continues, this time with the Liberals (34%, up 6 points) slightly edging the Tories (30%, down 3 points) and the NDP (28%, down 3 points) although all are within striking distance of each other, while other parties (8%, no change) trail.
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (58%, no change), as expected, continue to have a solid lead over the Liberals (23%, down 1 point), NDP (16%, up 2 points) and other parties (4%, up 1 point).
  • In Saskatchewan /Manitoba, the Conservatives (46%) hold a noticeable advantage over the Liberals (33%) and the NDP (20%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the commanding Liberal lead (41%, down 12 points) has weakened but is still prominent, still besting the NDP (29%, up 10 points), Conservatives (26%, no change), and other parties (4%, up 2 points).

The data also show a tight battle among many other demographic constituencies:

  • Among men, the Tories (37%, up 1 point) barely best the Liberals (33%, down 2 points), ahead of the NDP (22%, up 1 point), Bloc (5%, up 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change).
  • Among women, preference has shifted to the Conservatives (34%, up 4 points) and away from the Liberals (29%, down 5 points), with support for the NDP (26%, down 1 point), Bloc (7%, up 2 points) and other parties (4%, no change) remaining consistent since last month.
  • Among those aged 55+, the Tories (41%, up 2 points) continue to enjoy their traditional advantage over the Liberals (33%, up 1 point), NDP (19%, down 3 points), Bloc (3%, no change) and other parties (4%, no change).
  • Among those aged 35 to 54, tight battle seen last month has led to a clear Conservative lead (39%, up 6 points) over the Liberals (30%, down 5 points), with the NDP (21%, down 1 point), Bloc (7%, up 2 points) and other parties (3%, down 1 point) trailing.
  • Among those aged 18 to 34, the NDP (36%, up 8 points) have jumped to a solid lead over the Liberals (28%, down 9 points) and Conservatives (22%, down 2 points), while the Bloc (8%, down 1 point) and other parties (6%, up 3 points) lag.

 

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6728

How long are you going to keep hawking that poll? Cluttering up the thread. And show us the breakdown of Ipsos's performance in the Ontario election.

NorthReport

I thought you said you were concerned with clutter - this is a federal polling thread.

If you want to tak about Ontario politics fill your boots in the Ontario threads

It seems to me you are fine with Liberal clutter but.........nuff said.

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