Latest polling thread Jan. 27 2015

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thorin_bane

Not so sure on that because in all likely hood more of them would inflitrate the NDP and make it a more business party.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

I thought you said you were concerned with clutter - this is a federal polling thread.

If you want to tak about Ontario politics fill your boots in the Ontario threads

It seems to me you are fine with Liberal clutter but.........nuff said.

You're the King of Clutter.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

The Libs are sliding and the NDP sits in the mid 20s as I said months ago. All this denial by Lib trolls, and after all that trolling, nothing has changed. So called blue Libs will once again vote for Harper to stop the NDP. Why would ANY Liberal on this board claiming to be progressive want to have their claim to power be dependant on Libs who would vote for Harper? That's because the LIBS AND THE TORIE ARE EXACTLY THE SAME. THEIR IS NO DIFFERENCE!

scott16

Arthur Cramer wrote:

The Libs are sliding and the NDP sits in the mid 20s as I said months ago. All this denial by Lib trolls, and after all that trolling, nothing has changed. So called blue Libs will once again vote for Harper to stop the NDP. Why would ANY Liberal on this board claiming to be progressive want to have their claim to power be dependant on Libs who would vote for Harper? That's because the LIBS AND THE TORIE ARE EXACTLY THE SAME. THEIR IS NO DIFFERENCE!

Also one in three Canadians outside of Quebec don't really know Tom Mulcair yet. I assume the NDP will go up when people find out about Tom.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Seriously, for ALL of you Lib Trolls, you know who you are, and in particular one of you, you know who you are, as I wrote, "Why would ANY Liberal on this board cliaiming to be progressive wnat to have their cliam to power be dependant on LIbs who would VOTE FOR HARPER"? What does that say about the LPC, AND.....JUSTIN TRUDEAU? WHO, WHAT PART OF THEIR PARTY, are they going to listen to if the LPC wins? OBVIOUSLY. these voters see NO DIFFERENCE between Justin Trudeau, and Harper. This continued denial of this fact by LPC supporters on this board is infuriating! Don't tell me your party is progressive when it attracts voters that WOULD VOTE FOR HARPER! You know, you can tell  lot about people by the company they keep. All you Libs, your embrace of Justin Trudeau and the LPC given THE TRUTH that you fellow party supporters would vote for your enemy of all things Canadian, Harper, tells most of us on this board exactly what it tells us. You are hypocrites.

Jacob Two-Two

Debater wrote:

And Ipsos Reid has a history of inflating Conservative numbers going back many, many years.  As far back as the 2000 Election, their polling claimed Jéan Chrétien would only win a Minority.

Ha! I totally agree, but it's so easy to admit polling bias when they're pimping for the other party, isn't it Debater? Can you acknowledge that Forum has an equally bad reputation for inflating Liberal numbers? Of course you can't.

Winston

Whose poll is bigger? Debater's or North Report's?

Laughing

Seriously, though, you two need to stop the pis*ing contest. The polls right now are bad for the Liberals _and_ the NDP. They show that Justin Trudeau is too much of a flake to beat Harper in a head-to-head and that Tom Mulcair, while respected, is too far back at the moment to beat him either.

That said, we're still 9 months away from an election - plenty of time for Tom to turn things around, or for Justin to acquire an intellect.

josh

Abacus

 

Cons 33

Libs  32

NDP  24

Green 5

Bloc 4

 

http://abacusdata.ca/federal-tories-and-liberals-in-a-dead-heat/

 

NorthReport

Thanks josh.

Abacus

Party / Dec "14 / "Jan 15 / Change

Cons / 34% / 33% / Down 1%

NDP / 22% / 24% / Up 2%

Libs / 33% / 32% / Down 1%

 

 

nicky

Also from the latest Abacus:

In recent months we had been seeing improvement in Stephen Harper’s reputation. In the latest month’s data, that trend has paused. 34% have a positive view of the PM, while 40% are negative.  For Thomas Mulcair, numbers are stable with 29% positive, and 19% negative.  For Justin Trudeau, negative opinions have risen over the period from November and positive opinions have declined.  He currently finds 34% positive and 31% negative. 

Jacob Two-Two

Well looks like Harper's terrorism bump is already over, and voters are shaking their heads and coming back to the NDP. Tricky thing is getting the timing right. You don't want to peak too soon and enter the election on a downswing.

nicky

Abacus confirms several other recent polls that Mulcair 's approval ratings far exceed his diapprovals and that the trend is in his direction.

Trudeau's approval/ diapproval is about even and on a sharply negative curve.

Harper is still much more unpopular than popular but is gaining ground.

Among those with a view, Mulcair's approval rating is 62%, Trudeau's 52% and Harper's 46%.

scott16

nicky wrote:

Also from the latest Abacus:

In recent months we had been seeing improvement in Stephen Harper’s reputation. In the latest month’s data, that trend has paused. 34% have a positive view of the PM, while 40% are negative.  For Thomas Mulcair, numbers are stable with 29% positive, and 19% negative.  For Justin Trudeau, negative opinions have risen over the period from November and positive opinions have declined.  He currently finds 34% positive and 31% negative. 

Tom Mulcair is at 48% undecided/unknown.

also here's an NDP internal poll.

http://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/3413d0c2-c6f3-4dd5-ae7e-ca7c5326ca2a|_0

Here is the translation from Google

  Quebec remains the heart of the strategy to elect the first NDP government in the history of the country. The NDP is sixty seats in Quebec, at least 40 seats 20 seats in Ontario and British Columbia, La Presse has learned. Other provinces will be leveraged to he hopes to take power.

NDP strategists have spent the end of week meeting in Ottawa in order to refine their strategy in anticipation of the October elections. They surrounded the 170 constituencies needed to form a majority government in the next election.

"It is clear that we must maintain our gains in Quebec. But we must also be able to make gains in Ontario. We have 20 seats now. The target of 40 seats seems realistic. »

- An NDP strategist

The NDP currently holds 54 seats in Quebec.

Despite national surveys that place third in the polls (about 21% according to the website ThreeHundredEight.com), the NDP remains confident. According to an internal survey he conducted among 6,000 people, the NDP is the second choice of a majority of voters - which demonstrates, according to strategists, it has the best growth potential. The survey also reveal a growing concern of voters about "inexperience and [the] poor judgment" Justin Trudeau.

The NDP also finished 2014 by collecting $ 9.6 million from 46,523 donors, the largest amount ever collected in its history. "We are very encouraged by these results. »

FORMER AMBASSADOR IN THE SCRUM

The NDP also boast of attracting prestigious candidates. While the Harper government made the defense of the sovereignty of Ukraine one of the priority issues of its foreign policy, a former Canadian ambassador to Kiev, G. Daniel Caron, intends to enter the political arena wearing the colors of the NDP in the federal election of October 19, La Presse has learned.

Mr. Caron, who was Canada's ambassador to Ukraine from 2008 to 2011 and who joined last August in the team of International Studies at Laval University, will be a candidate in one of the districts of the city Quebec - a region that troops Harper ardently courting for months hoping to regain the seats they have already detained there and have switched to the camp of the NDP in the 2011 elections.

The NDP, who would not say the district where Mr. Caron will be a candidate since it remains some details to finalize, so draws back into the ranks of Canadian diplomacy to strengthen the team in Quebec. NDP MP for Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Hélène Laverdière, was also stationed in some Canadian embassies abroad before making the leap policy in 2011. This is also Laverdière that caused the surprise by beating former Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe in Laurier-Sainte-Marie, a riding he held since 1990.

"G. Daniel Caron is a prestigious nomination for the city of Quebec. He is a member of the NDP and is a longtime progressive. It shares the values of the NDP and he is critical of the management of conservatives, including foreign affairs. Hélène Laverdière knows him well. It is in this context that the discussion took place. Obviously, it consolidates a team already experienced in foreign affairs adviser to Thomas Mulcair, "it is said in the NDP ranks.

"The Ukrainian question is an important topical issue and also an important political issue, it is unclear how the Conservatives might criticize the candidacy of one who was ambassador to Ukraine from 2008 to 2011. In fact, the Conservatives should accept his nominate a good eye, he is probably best placed to Canada to inform parliamentarians about the situation and the strategy towards Russia. »

The NDP will also count on the union representative of the FTQ Réjean Bellemare, who will be a candidate in Repentigny, and on the lawyer Action unemployment Hans Marotte, which will run for the votes for the troops of Thomas Mulcair in Saint John.

nicky

Debater has helpfully suggested that that I post this here :

Todays Abacus poll for Quebec:

NDP  35 +7% since December

Lib   27 -8

Bloq  16 -3

Con   18 +4

As for leadership numbers in Quebec

Mulcair (Dec) +48 -10 (now) +46 -9

Justin   (Dec) +37 -24 (now) +32 -29

Harper (Dec) +24 -50 (now) +28 -50.

So Tom has gone from +38 to +35

Justin from +13 to +3

Harper from -26 to -22

Things seem to be slipping away from Justin, slowly nationally and more rapidly in Quebec.

It reminds me of the passage in The Sun Also Rises:

"How did you go bankrupt?

At first gradually, then rapidly."

 

NorthReport

Tired of being lied, or manipulated, mislead, or deceived by the mainstream press and their affiliates yet? For example not a peep from 308

Some people are making a big mistake attempting to trash the Mulcair-led NDP when Mulcair is probably going to be Canadian's best chance of taking Harper down in the next election. 

Canadians have gotten to know Trudeau much better over the past 5 months, and fewer and fewer Canadians are liking what they see of him.

Canadians have increased their support for the Cons by 4% or actually 7% against the hapless Trudeau Liberals.

The NDP is now up 2%, or actually up 5% against those same hapless Trudeau Liberals.

The Trudeau Liberals are now down 3%.

The same hapless Liberals are now down 5% against the NDP.

And these hopeless Trudeau Liberals are now down 7%% against the Cons. 

Politics is all about the trends.

Abacus

Party / Aug 18 / Sep 14 / Oct 17 / Nov 4 / Dec 20 / Jan 28

Cons / 29% / 30% / 30% / 34% / 33%, Up 4%

NDP / 22% / 23% / 25% /24% / 22% / 24%, Up 2%

Libs / 35% / 38% / 32% / 35% / 33% / 32%, Down 3%

 


Slide3

Slide2

http://abacusdata.ca/federal-tories-and-liberals-in-a-dead-heat/

-------------

2,020 (+650)

Brachina

 Its tbose damn Ontario numbers that drag the NDP down, if the NDP could improve thier numbers in Ontario it would help alot, even an increase to say 25% would be a nice boost to the NDPs numbers. I will say I think its primarily the GTA (Downtown Toronto and Scarbough seem the exceptions), GOA, and the bible belt that drags the NDP's numbers down, the NDP does well in  Northern Ontario, and it been growing in the Golden Horseshoe/Southern Ontario. 

scott16

scott16 wrote:

nicky wrote:

Also from the latest Abacus:

In recent months we had been seeing improvement in Stephen Harper’s reputation. In the latest month’s data, that trend has paused. 34% have a positive view of the PM, while 40% are negative.  For Thomas Mulcair, numbers are stable with 29% positive, and 19% negative.  For Justin Trudeau, negative opinions have risen over the period from November and positive opinions have declined.  He currently finds 34% positive and 31% negative. 

Tom Mulcair is at 48% undecided/unknown.

also here's an NDP internal poll.

http://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/3413d0c2-c6f3-4dd5-ae7e-ca7c5326ca2a|_0

Here is the translation from Google

  Quebec remains the heart of the strategy to elect the first NDP government in the history of the country. The NDP is sixty seats in Quebec, at least 40 seats 20 seats in Ontario and British Columbia, La Presse has learned. Other provinces will be leveraged to he hopes to take power.

NDP strategists have spent the end of week meeting in Ottawa in order to refine their strategy in anticipation of the October elections. They surrounded the 170 constituencies needed to form a majority government in the next election.

"It is clear that we must maintain our gains in Quebec. But we must also be able to make gains in Ontario. We have 20 seats now. The target of 40 seats seems realistic. »

- An NDP strategist

The NDP currently holds 54 seats in Quebec.

Despite national surveys that place third in the polls (about 21% according to the website ThreeHundredEight.com), the NDP remains confident. According to an internal survey he conducted among 6,000 people, the NDP is the second choice of a majority of voters - which demonstrates, according to strategists, it has the best growth potential. The survey also reveal a growing concern of voters about "inexperience and [the] poor judgment" Justin Trudeau.

The NDP also finished 2014 by collecting $ 9.6 million from 46,523 donors, the largest amount ever collected in its history. "We are very encouraged by these results. »

FORMER AMBASSADOR IN THE SCRUM

The NDP also boast of attracting prestigious candidates. While the Harper government made the defense of the sovereignty of Ukraine one of the priority issues of its foreign policy, a former Canadian ambassador to Kiev, G. Daniel Caron, intends to enter the political arena wearing the colors of the NDP in the federal election of October 19, La Presse has learned.

Mr. Caron, who was Canada's ambassador to Ukraine from 2008 to 2011 and who joined last August in the team of International Studies at Laval University, will be a candidate in one of the districts of the city Quebec - a region that troops Harper ardently courting for months hoping to regain the seats they have already detained there and have switched to the camp of the NDP in the 2011 elections.

The NDP, who would not say the district where Mr. Caron will be a candidate since it remains some details to finalize, so draws back into the ranks of Canadian diplomacy to strengthen the team in Quebec. NDP MP for Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Hélène Laverdière, was also stationed in some Canadian embassies abroad before making the leap policy in 2011. This is also Laverdière that caused the surprise by beating former Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe in Laurier-Sainte-Marie, a riding he held since 1990.

"G. Daniel Caron is a prestigious nomination for the city of Quebec. He is a member of the NDP and is a longtime progressive. It shares the values of the NDP and he is critical of the management of conservatives, including foreign affairs. Hélène Laverdière knows him well. It is in this context that the discussion took place. Obviously, it consolidates a team already experienced in foreign affairs adviser to Thomas Mulcair, "it is said in the NDP ranks.

"The Ukrainian question is an important topical issue and also an important political issue, it is unclear how the Conservatives might criticize the candidacy of one who was ambassador to Ukraine from 2008 to 2011. In fact, the Conservatives should accept his nominate a good eye, he is probably best placed to Canada to inform parliamentarians about the situation and the strategy towards Russia. »

The NDP will also count on the union representative of the FTQ Réjean Bellemare, who will be a candidate in Repentigny, and on the lawyer Action unemployment Hans Marotte, which will run for the votes for the troops of Thomas Mulcair in Saint John.

I don't know why the link won't work.

You can see it if you go to pundit's guide twitter feed. It was posted 8 hours ago.

Sorry for the inconvience.

NorthReport

Not a new poll but more possible trouble ahead for the Trudeau Liberals from another one of Canada's most accurate pollsters?

Angus Reid

Party /  Sep 19 '14 / Dec 13 '14 

Cons / 30% /34%, Up 4%

NDP / 22% / 22%, NC

Libs / 36% / 34%, Down 2% - which is a drop of 6% against the Cons

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Again, the Liberals fail to eat into NDP support. By maintaining 20%, the NDP is preventing the Libs and Cons from having any kind of majority mandate. Green Party support is eating into Liberal support in South Western Ontario and B.C. As the Liberals continue to go to zero, the Greens, NDP, and Cons will feast. One thing a Liberal will do is leave a sinking ship.

You are going to see some striking Green effects in localized areas. This is what Orchardism has become, after a journey through the Liberal Party. I think this is also why Harper and May do not like each other at all. This Green thing is becoming a massive headache for the Right, which is quite delightful.

NorthReport

Actually it appears that Ivison is talking though his hat (being polite) when commenting on polls, eh!

This is the typical bullshit, and I mean merde, we see all the time, day-after day, 24/7 in the mainstream press who want a right-wing government no matter Conservative, Liberal or Green, it doesn't make no matter to Corporate Canada.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/15/john-ivison-tom-mulcair-s-2015-r...

Mulcair's reboot is already showing signs of life for the NDP. Go Brad go!  Smile

Pondering

Why would anyone expect Trudeau's numbers to be anything but soft until he releases a platform? Arguing that Mulcair is on some sort of a roll because he is at the top of his numbers won't make it true.

If the election were held tomorrow Canadians would choose consistency over a changing of the guard: nationally, the Conservatives (35%, up 2 points from December 2014) would edge the Trudeau-led Liberals (31%, down 3 points). This latest wave of polling shows that the tide has gone out on the seven point Liberal lead in September 2014 and would be converted into a fourth consecutive mandate for Prime Minister Harper if the election were held tomorrow.

The Thomas Mulcair-led Official Opposition NDP (24%, no change) continues their traction-less trend seen throughout most of 2014, which is down 7 points from their 2011 election surge.

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6728

adma

Brachina wrote:

 Its tbose damn Ontario numbers that drag the NDP down, if the NDP could improve thier numbers in Ontario it would help alot, even an increase to say 25% would be a nice boost to the NDPs numbers. I will say I think its primarily the GTA (Downtown Toronto and Scarbough seem the exceptions), GOA, and the bible belt that drags the NDP's numbers down, the NDP does well in  Northern Ontario, and it been growing in the Golden Horseshoe/Southern Ontario. 

Don't forget another possible number-dampering factor: the bloom being (perceived to be) off Andrea Horwath's rose.

NorthReport

adma,

The ONT NDP got 24% in the last election - what are they polling now?

NorthReport

LaughingLaughingLaughing

------------------

Slide8

 

 - abacus data.ca today

Stockholm

But Trudeau has released his platform. He will legalize marijuana and everything else stays the same as under Harper

Pondering wrote:

Why would anyone expect Trudeau's numbers to be anything but soft until he releases a platform? Arguing that Mulcair is on some sort of a roll because he is at the top of his numbers won't make it true.

If the election were held tomorrow Canadians would choose consistency over a changing of the guard: nationally, the Conservatives (35%, up 2 points from December 2014) would edge the Trudeau-led Liberals (31%, down 3 points). This latest wave of polling shows that the tide has gone out on the seven point Liberal lead in September 2014 and would be converted into a fourth consecutive mandate for Prime Minister Harper if the election were held tomorrow.

The Thomas Mulcair-led Official Opposition NDP (24%, no change) continues their traction-less trend seen throughout most of 2014, which is down 7 points from their 2011 election surge.

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6728

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

Why would anyone expect Trudeau's numbers to be anything but soft until he releases a platform? Arguing that Mulcair is on some sort of a roll because he is at the top of his numbers won't make it true.

If the election were held tomorrow Canadians would choose consistency over a changing of the guard: nationally, the Conservatives (35%, up 2 points from December 2014) would edge the Trudeau-led Liberals (31%, down 3 points). This latest wave of polling shows that the tide has gone out on the seven point Liberal lead in September 2014 and would be converted into a fourth consecutive mandate for Prime Minister Harper if the election were held tomorrow.

The Thomas Mulcair-led Official Opposition NDP (24%, no change) continues their traction-less trend seen throughout most of 2014, which is down 7 points from their 2011 election surge.

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6728

Or not Pondering. Trudeau is not going to have anything that he can sell; it'll be a steal of the NDP and the Tories. It'll just look "me too". You better hoe people go for your boy's pretty little smile; he's got NOTHING, else.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

NorthReport wrote:

LaughingLaughingLaughing

------------------

Slide8

 

 - abacus data.ca today

LOVE THIS! He better hope he can dazzle people with his pretty smile, because outside of his curly hair, and boyish good looks, Le Dauphin has NOTHNG!

adma

NorthReport wrote:

adma,

The ONT NDP got 24% in the last election - what are they polling now?

I thought I read upper teens somewhere; though that could also the post-election "Wynne honeymoon" talking.

And in a way, even that 24% was residual momentum from prior pushing--all the same, remember the perception that Horwath bumbled a big opportunity, and some of that NDP-stumblebum perception only came to settle in post-election.  Yeah, I know: "perception"--still, it may be a big reason why Ontario fed polling doesn't show a 3-way fight as it might have a year or two ago...

NorthReport

Thanks adna

-------------------

Cons hit new high in accessible voters but Libs lead according to Nanos today

scott16

Here is the link to that article that didn't work yesterday. This is an internal poll that polled 6000 people.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201502/...

Pondering

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/02/04/canadians-say-harper-is-best-ceo...

Canadians want to go on vacation with Justin Trudeau, get financial advice from Stephen Harper and think Thomas Mulcair would be the most likely to loan them $100, according to Abacus Data....

Harper scored highest with Canadians in five of 16 descriptors, with respondents picking him best suited to be the CEO of a large company (47%), give investment advice (46%), give career advice (41%), give advice to your children about their future (37%) and negotiate a contract on your behalf (38%)...

In addition to being most likely to loan you $100 (38%), Mulcair closely followed Harper in negotiating a contract (35%), giving career advice (36%) and advising your children (33%).....

The Liberal leader was chosen as the best fit for 10 of 16 possible descriptors, including trust to choose a good movie to watch (53%), prefer to have babysit your kids (44%), most able to survive in the wilderness (42%), and trust to look after your pet (40%).

 

NorthReport

Tks Scott

60 seats just in Quebec

If true mulcair could end up as pm

NorthReport

+

NorthReport

+

thorin_bane

Pondering wrote:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/02/04/canadians-say-harper-is-best-ceo...

Canadians want to go on vacation with Justin Trudeau, get financial advice from Stephen Harper and think Thomas Mulcair would be the most likely to loan them $100, according to Abacus Data....

Harper scored highest with Canadians in five of 16 descriptors, with respondents picking him best suited to be the CEO of a large company (47%), give investment advice (46%), give career advice (41%), give advice to your children about their future (37%) and negotiate a contract on your behalf (38%)...

In addition to being most likely to loan you $100 (38%), Mulcair closely followed Harper in negotiating a contract (35%), giving career advice (36%) and advising your children (33%).....

The Liberal leader was chosen as the best fit for 10 of 16 possible descriptors, including trust to choose a good movie to watch (53%), prefer to have babysit your kids (44%), most able to survive in the wilderness (42%), and trust to look after your pet (40%).

 


Sounds like the guy you need to run your country...i mean playschool. Ill take Mulcairs positives.

Rokossovsky

Brachina wrote:

 Its tbose damn Ontario numbers that drag the NDP down, if the NDP could improve thier numbers in Ontario it would help alot, even an increase to say 25% would be a nice boost to the NDPs numbers. I will say I think its primarily the GTA (Downtown Toronto and Scarbough seem the exceptions), GOA, and the bible belt that drags the NDP's numbers down, the NDP does well in  Northern Ontario, and it been growing in the Golden Horseshoe/Southern Ontario. 

I think 2 of the 3 new ridings (formerly 2) in Toronto downtown core are winnable prospects for the NDP, the sad thing is that not all the incumbents are secure, for example Cash in Davenport might go the way of Jonah Schein. Could be close. I predict stability in seats there, when all is said and done unless formidable national momentum picks up, so 2 out of the 5 core ridings; Toronto Center, Univeristy-Rosedale, Spadina Fort-York (dead loss); Davenport.

With substantive national momentum, 3 out of those 5.

I don't have a fix on the rest of the city.

It's the Golden-Horseshoe and Southern Ontario where the NDP can pick up speed in Ontario to get those seats they want, based on the provincial results. They might be able to exploit that.

nicky

Pondering, look at the cross-tabs of the Abacus poll you trumpet. Justin scores well in these categories:

Best substitute drama teacher

Best snowboard instructor

Best critic for Amateur Sport

Most truant Member of Parliament

MP who has proposed least number of new bills (zero)

adma

Rokossovsky wrote:
I think 2 of the 3 new ridings (formerly 2) in Toronto downtown core are winnable prospects for the NDP, the sad thing is that not all the incumbents are secure, for example Cash in Davenport might go the way of Jonah Schein.

Given the scale by which Cash won (2:1 vs an incumbent; by comparison, Schein won only marginally in an open seat), I wouldn't necessarily single *him* out...

Debater

Security concerns propel Conservatives ahead of Liberals, NDP

Feb 5, 2015 4:07 pm

The Conservatives are once again atop the polls, in large part because of Canadians' concerns over national security. According to an opinion poll released by EKOS Research on Thursday, the Conservatives are the first choice of 35 per cent of Canadians, ahead of the Liberals' 32.2 per cent and the 17.9 per cent registered by the sagging New Democrats.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/02/05/security-concerns-propel-conservative...

Debater

Everyone happy with the new poll numbers?

EKOS - Feb 5, 2015

Conservatives - 35

Liberals - 32

NDP - 18

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/02/05/security-concerns-propel-conservative...

 

Winston

Debater wrote:

Everyone happy with the new poll numbers?

EKOS - Feb 5, 2015

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/02/05/security-concerns-propel-conservative...

You're so charming when you gloat, Debater. All it means is that we have to work all that much harder to put more Liberals behind bars where they belong

Debater

I'm not gloating.  *I'M* not the one that's happy when the Conservatives move ahead.  My point is that some NDPers seem to want the Liberals to go down, without realizing what the consequences are.  Well the Liberals have lost some ground to Harper now because of his campaign to scare Canadians through all the terrorism propaganda.

But it has resulted in not just the Liberals losing ground, but the NDP losing ground as well.  So how is the rise of the Conservatives good for either of the Opposition parties?

EKOS says the Cons are even gaining ground in Québec, which could mean a loss of seats there for the NDP as well.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/02/05/conservatives-back-on-top-with-strong...

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
I'm not gloating.  *I'M* not the one that's happy when the Conservatives move ahead.  My point is that some NDPers seem to want the Liberals to go down, without realizing what the consequences are.  Well the Liberals have lost some ground to Harper now because of his campaign to scare Canadians through all the terrorism propaganda.

Except that the Liberals have indicated their support for the anti-terrorism measures proposed by the Conservative government, so on that file I'm not sure how a Liberal government makes any material difference anyways.

Winston

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Except that the Liberals have indicated their support for the anti-terrorism measures proposed by the Conservative government, so on that file I'm not sure how a Liberal government makes any material difference anyways.

Liberals don't make any material difference on that issue or a host of others but you can probably trust them to walk your dog for you, if substantive policy doesn't do it for you. Dogs are easy to bribe, after all.

Who wants a treat??? How about a government job, boy? Who's a good boy???

josh
Debater

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
I'm not gloating.  *I'M* not the one that's happy when the Conservatives move ahead.  My point is that some NDPers seem to want the Liberals to go down, without realizing what the consequences are.  Well the Liberals have lost some ground to Harper now because of his campaign to scare Canadians through all the terrorism propaganda.

Except that the Liberals have indicated their support for the anti-terrorism measures proposed by the Conservative government, so on that file I'm not sure how a Liberal government makes any material difference anyways.

Well, there are numerous differences between Liberals & Conservatives as have already been documented in the past.

1.  Gay rights

2.  Women's issues/abortion

3.  Drug policy/marijuana legalization

4.  Science/policy/long-form census

5.  Environment

6.  UN/foreign affairs

7.  Aboriginal missing women inquiry

And with regard to the terrorism bill, Trudeau told Harper yesterday the Liberals would institute more oversight, which Harper opposes.

Debater

So Leger differs from EKOS & Abacus by giving higher numbers to the Liberals than the Conservatives.  The one thing they agree on though is that the NDP are in a distant 3rd.

The other difference is that Leger has the NDP & Liberals well ahead of the Conservatives in Quebec.  As a Quebec pollster, they presumably know the Quebec terrain better.  The English Canadian pollsters claim that the Conservatives are surging in Quebec.  Not so says Leger.

Jacob Two-Two

I'll stick with abacus and Angus Reid, who have a better record than EKOS and Leger. EKOS freely admits that they can't get proper numbers on the NDP.

NorthReport

An analysis has been done which showed EKOS as being was it the worst track record of all

Cbc has no shame with their pimping for trudeau their final hope before the liberal lights go out for good

 

NorthReport

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