France

428 posts / 0 new
Last post
voice of the damned

(In response to the discussion at the end of the last page...)

Given France's run-off style of presidential elections, a candidate with very little support CAN make it into the final  tournament, if the rest of the stars align just right in the first. See 2002 for the most notable case.

But there is no way I would bet money on Melenchon winning the second round, even if he manages to get in.

Sean in Ottawa

voice of the damned wrote:

(In response to the discussion at the end of the last page...)

Given France's run-off style of presidential elections, a candidate with very little support CAN make it into the final  tournament, if the rest of the stars align just right in the first. See 2002 for the most notable case.

But there is no way I would bet money on Melenchon winning the second round, even if he manages to get in.

Melenchon's chances run about like this -- to get in the second round there needs to be a near tie with two centrist(ish) candidates, Le Pen and Melenchon with Melenchon and Le Pen slightly edging the centrists. Then with a straight up choice between Le Pen and Melenchon, centrist votes may choose to go to Melenchon rather than Le Pen.

Easy to imagine one of the two going in but both? This would require a strong anti-Europe vote. My guess is due to the pro and anti EU axis in voting, Melenchon would rise partly at the cost of Le Pen or visa versa. This means that very likely the final vote will be the centrist pro-Europe against either one of Melenchon or Le Pen. Very doubtful that Melenchon can get a run-off against Le Pen.

The sliver of possibility would be if two centrist candidates remain strong through the first vote -- so that you get Le Pen coming first, Melenchon second, centre/centre right/centre left third, and another centre right/centre left/centre fourth -- all very close. In this scenario you could then have the centre vote have to choose between Melenchon and Le Pen and there is a reasonable chance that they might choose Melenchon. This is very unlikely but not impossible. It would require Melenchon to get about 25% of the vote and have the rest distributed near perfectly. Say LePen 27, Melanchon 25, Centrist 24, Centrist 22, and a couple points to minor candidates.

The reason it is unlikely is that voters seeing the polls will likely move toward the stronger centrist pro EU canddiate to keep one on last ballot. It would take a deadlock so tight that the voters would be unable to make a strategic choice. It would also take Melenchon to get about a quarter of the vote with Le Pen a little more...

iyraste1313