Latest USA polling results

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NorthReport

Intrade

Democratic Pres nominee will take Ohio - 78.5%

Democratic Pres nominee will win Florida - 64.5%

Democratic Pres nominee will win Virginia - 70%

Democrats will control the Senate - 65.3%

www.intrade.com

NorthReport

Intrade odds

Date / Obama / )-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 30 / 75.2% / -3.8% / 24.4% / +3.7% / Obama by 50.8%

Sep 28 / 79% / Flatlined / 20.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 58.3%

Sep 28 / 79% / +0.5% / 21.1% / -0.8% / Obama by 57.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

 

NorthReport

Romney has closed the gap by over 10% within the past 3 days. Or has he? These spreads are sure jumping around.

Intrade odds

Date / Obama / )-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Oct 1 / 75.1% / +0.9% / 24.9% / -1.5% / Obama by 50.2%

Oct 1 / 74.2% / -1.9% / 26.4% / +2.7% / Obama by 47.8% 

Oct 1 / 76.1% / -0.2%  / 23.7% / +0.7% / 52.4%

Sep 30 / 76.3% / +1.1% / 23% / -1.4% / Obama by 53.3% 

Sep 30 / 75.2% / -3.8% / 24.4% / +3.7% / Obama by 50.8%

Sep 28 / 79% / Flatlined / 20.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 58.3%

Sep 28 / 79% / +0.5% / 21.1% / -0.8% / Obama by 57.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

 

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

CNN poll today: Romney more unpopular than GW Bush. Laughing

NorthReport
NorthReport

As we all well know, our mainstream media thrives on BS, but as we stand today there is no contest. It does not mean things cannot change but right now Obama is a shoein for a second term.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528840.200-the-us-presidential-election-is-no-contest.html

NorthReport

US Election - 2012 - Polling

With Toss Ups

Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Toss Ups / Req'd to Win-Majority

Oct 2 / Pres / 265 / 191 / 82 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270

Oct 2 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51

Oct 2 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218 

Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218

Without Toss Ups

Date / Race / Dem / GOP  / Req'd to Win-Majority

Oct 2 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Oct 2 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51

Oct 2 / House / Not available

Sep 17 / House / Not available 

 www.realclearpolitics.com

US Election - 2012 - Gamblers

Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread

Oct 3 / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%

Oct 3 / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%

Oct 2 / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3% 

www.intrade.com

NorthReport

US Election - 2012 - Gamblers

Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread

Oct 4 / 65.8% / 34.9% / Obama by 30.9%

Oct 3 / 67% / 32.9% / Obama by 34.1%

Oct 3 / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%

Oct 3 / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%

Oct 2 / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3% 

www.intrade.com

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I think that this guy's horse race is way better than all the horse race reporting going on. The MSM media focus on polls and the "race" is a big part of the dysfunction in the political culture of liberal democracies.

So to inject a little levity I suggest that the whole US MSM is really just riding GANGNAM style.

http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2012/10/12/Gangnam-Style/

 

NorthReport

 

US Election - 2012 - Polling


With Toss Ups

Date / Pres / Dem / Rep / Tossups / Required to Win

Oct 11 / Pres / 201 / 181 / 156 / 270

Oct 5 / Pres / 251 / 181 / 106 / 270

Oct 4 / Pres / 269 / 181 / 88 / 270

Oct 2 / Pres / 265 / 191 / 82 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270

Oct 11 / Senate / 46 / 43  / 11 / 51 

Oct 5 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Oct 4 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Oct 2 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51

Oct 11 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 5 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 4 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 2 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218 

Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218

 

Without Toss Ups

Date / Race / Dem / GOP  / Required to Win

Oct 11 / Pres / 294 / 244 / 270

Oct 5 / Pres / 303 / 235 / 270

Oct 4 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Oct 2 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Oct 11 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 5 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 4 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 2 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51

Oct 11 / House / Not available

Oct 4 / House / Not available

Sep 17 / House / Not available 

 www.realclearpolitics.com

 

US Election - 2012 - Gamblers

Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread

Oct 12 / 61.5% / 38.6% / Dems by 22.9%

Oct 11 / 63.4% / 36.9% / Dems by 26.5%

Oct 11 / Pres / 63.3% / 37.6% / Obama by 25.7% 

Oct 11 / Pres / 61.9% / 38.1% / Obama by 23.8%

Oct 11 / 62.0% / 37.9% / Obama by 24.1%

Oct 10 / 63.1% / 36.9% / Obama by 26.2%

Oct 5 / 67.5% / 32.8% / Obama by 34.7%

Oct 5 / 69.0% / 30.1% / Obama by 38.9%    

Oct 4 / Pres / 65.8% / 34.9% / Obama by 30.9%

Oct 3 / Pres / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%

Oct 3 / Pres / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%

Oct 2 / Pres / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3% 

www.intrade.com

 

Presidential Forecast

Date / Dem / GOP / Diifference / Required to Win

Oct 11 / 289.9 / 248.1 / Dem by 41.8 / 270

Oct 4 / 321.2 / 236.8 / Dem by 84.4 / 270


Chance of Winning

Date / Dem / GOP / Difference / 

Oct 11 / 66.1% / 33.9% / Dem by 32.2%

Oct 4 / 87.1% / 12.9% / Dem by 74.2%


Popular Vote

Date / Dem / GOP / Difference

Oct 11 / 50.0% / 48.9% / Dem by 1.1%

Oct 4 / 51.6% / 47.3% / Dem by 2.7%

www.fivethirtyeight.com

3015

NorthReport

Things have changed since the 1st presidential debate.

Date / Pollster / Dem / GOP / Difference

Oct 12 / Gallup / 47% / 49% / GOP by 2%

Oct 9 / Gallup / 47% / 49% / GOP by 2%

www.gallup.com

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

NorthReport

  Intrade odds

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 27 / 77.8% / +0.9% / 22.4% / -0.5% / Obama now by 55.4%

Sep 27 / 76.9% / +1.2% / 22.9% / -1.8% / Obama by a staggering 54% margin

Sep 26 / 75.7% / +0.6% / 24.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 51%

Sep 26 / 75.1% / +0.7% / 25.1% / +0.1% / Obama by 50%

Sep 26 / 74.4% / +1.4% / 25% / -2.0% / Obama by 49.4%

Sep 25 / 73% / +0.1% / 27% / -0.2% / Obama by 46% 

Sep 25 / 72.9% / +0.9% / 27.2% / -0.3% / Obama's by 45.7% 

Sep 25 / 72% / Flatlined / 27.5% / -0.3% / Obama by 44.5%

Sep 24 / 72% / +0.8% / 27.8% / +0.2% / Obama by 44.2%

Sep 24 / 71.2% / +0.1% / 27.6% / -0.9% / Obama by 43.6%

Sep 23 / 71.1% / +0.2% / 28.5% / -0.5% / Obama by 42.6%

Sep 23 / 70.9% / +0.7% / 29.0% / -0.4% / Obama by 41.9%

Sep 23 / 70.2% / Flatlined / 29.4% / -0.2% / Obama by 40.8%

Sep 22 / 70.2% / -1.4% / 29.6% / +0.9% / Obama by 40.6% 

Sep 21 / 71.6% / -1.0% / 28.7% / +1.6% / Obama by 42.9%

Sep 21 / 72.6% / +2.7% / 27.1% / -2.9% / Obama by 45.5%

Sep 21 / 69.9% / +0.4% / 30.0% / -0.5% / Obama by 39.9%

Sep 20 / 69.5% / +2.5% / 30.5% / -2.2% / Obama by 39%

Sep 19 / 67% / -1.3% / 32.7% / +0.6% / Obama by 34.3%

Sep 18 / 68.3% / +0.3% / 32.1% / -0.2% / Obama by 36.2%

Sep 18 / 68% / +0.6% / 32.3% / -0.2% / Obama by 35.7%

Sep 18 / 67.4% / +1.2% / 32.5% / -1.2% / Obama by 34.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

 

 

 

 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport
DaveW

no question that Romney is having an October surge:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_electi...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_el...

but if those always held, President Kerry might be watching from the sidelines, perhaps after 2 terms, as his successors battled it out ....

NorthReport

US Election - 2012 - Polling


With Toss Ups

Date / Pres / Dem / Rep / Tossups / Required to Win

Oct 11 / Pres / 201 / 181 / 156 / 270

Oct 5 / Pres / 251 / 181 / 106 / 270

Oct 4 / Pres / 269 / 181 / 88 / 270

Oct 2 / Pres / 265 / 191 / 82 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270

Oct 11 / Senate / 46 / 43  / 11 / 51 

Oct 5 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Oct 4 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Oct 2 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51

Oct 11 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 5 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 4 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 2 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218 

Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218

 

Without Toss Ups

Date / Race / Dem / GOP  / Required to Win

Oct 11 / Pres / 294 / 244 / 270

Oct 5 / Pres / 303 / 235 / 270

Oct 4 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Oct 2 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Oct 11 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 5 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 4 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 2 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51

Oct 11 / House / Not available

Oct 4 / House / Not available

Sep 17 / House / Not available 

 www.realclearpolitics.com

 

US Election - 2012 - Gamblers

Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread

Oct 14 / 61.1% / 38.5% / 22.6%

Oct 13 / 59.4% / 40.7% / 18.7%

Oct 12 / 61.2% / 38.9% / Dems by 22.3%

Oct 12 / 61.5% / 38.6% / Dems by 22.9%

Oct 11 / 63.4% / 36.9% / Dems by 26.5%

Oct 11 / Pres / 63.3% / 37.6% / Obama by 25.7% 

Oct 11 / Pres / 61.9% / 38.1% / Obama by 23.8%

Oct 11 / 62.0% / 37.9% / Obama by 24.1%

Oct 10 / 63.1% / 36.9% / Obama by 26.2%

Oct 5 / 67.5% / 32.8% / Obama by 34.7%

Oct 5 / 69.0% / 30.1% / Obama by 38.9%    

Oct 4 / Pres / 65.8% / 34.9% / Obama by 30.9%

Oct 3 / Pres / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%

Oct 3 / Pres / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%

Oct 2 / Pres / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3% 

www.intrade.com

 

Presidential Forecast

Date / Dem / GOP / Diifference / Required to Win

Oct 13 / 283.1 / 254.9 / 28.2

Oct 11 / 289.9 / 248.1 / Dem by 41.8 / 270

Oct 4 / 321.2 / 236.8 / Dem by 84.4 / 270


Chance of Winning

Date / Dem / GOP / Difference 

Oct 13 / 61.1% / 38.9% / 22.2% 

Oct 11 / 66.1% / 33.9% / Dem by 32.2%

Oct 4 / 87.1% / 12.9% / Dem by 74.2%


Popular Vote

Date / Dem / GOP / Difference

Oct 13 / 49.8% / 49.1% / 0.3%

Oct 11 / 50.0% / 48.9% / Dem by 1.1%

Oct 4 / 51.6% / 47.3% / Dem by 2.7%

www.fivethirtyeight.com

 

 

Otavano

Obama might be the best candiate, but still really nothing more than a mini-Bush.

NorthReport
NorthReport

 

US Election - 2012 - Polling


With Toss Ups

Date / Pres / Dem / Rep / Tossups / Required to Win

Oct 11 / Pres / 201 / 181 / 156 / 270

Oct 5 / Pres / 251 / 181 / 106 / 270

Oct 4 / Pres / 269 / 181 / 88 / 270

Oct 2 / Pres / 265 / 191 / 82 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270

Oct 11 / Senate / 46 / 43  / 11 / 51 

Oct 5 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Oct 4 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Oct 2 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51

Oct 11 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 5 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 4 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218

Oct 2 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218 

Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218

 

Without Toss Ups

Date / Race / Dem / GOP  / Required to Win

Oct 11 / Pres / 294 / 244 / 270

Oct 5 / Pres / 303 / 235 / 270

Oct 4 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Oct 2 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Oct 11 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 5 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 4 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Oct 2 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51

Oct 11 / House / Not available

Oct 4 / House / Not available

Sep 17 / House / Not available 

 www.realclearpolitics.com

US Election - 2012 - Gamblers

Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread

Oct 13 / 59.4% / 40.7% / 18.7%

Oct 12 / 61.2% / 38.9% / Dems by 22.3%

Oct 12 / 61.5% / 38.6% / Dems by 22.9%

Oct 11 / 63.4% / 36.9% / Dems by 26.5%

Oct 11 / Pres / 63.3% / 37.6% / Obama by 25.7% 

Oct 11 / Pres / 61.9% / 38.1% / Obama by 23.8%

Oct 11 / 62.0% / 37.9% / Obama by 24.1%

Oct 10 / 63.1% / 36.9% / Obama by 26.2%

Oct 5 / 67.5% / 32.8% / Obama by 34.7%

Oct 5 / 69.0% / 30.1% / Obama by 38.9%    

Oct 4 / Pres / 65.8% / 34.9% / Obama by 30.9%

Oct 3 / Pres / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%

Oct 3 / Pres / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%

Oct 2 / Pres / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3% 

www.intrade.com

 

Presidential Forecast

Date / Dem / GOP / Diifference / Required to Win

Oct 13 / 283.1 / 254.9 / 28.2

Oct 11 / 289.9 / 248.1 / Dem by 41.8 / 270

Oct 4 / 321.2 / 236.8 / Dem by 84.4 / 270


Chance of Winning

Date / Dem / GOP / Difference 

Oct 13 / 61.1% / 38.9% / 22.2% 

Oct 11 / 66.1% / 33.9% / Dem by 32.2%

Oct 4 / 87.1% / 12.9% / Dem by 74.2%


Popular Vote

Date / Dem / GOP / Difference

Oct 13 / 49.8% / 49.1% / 0.3%

Oct 11 / 50.0% / 48.9% / Dem by 1.1%

Oct 4 / 51.6% / 47.3% / Dem by 2.7%

www.fivethirtyeight.com

 

NorthReport

Yes Obama has been dropping recently in the polls and the gamblers' spread but.....

The Gamblers

Date / Obama / Romney / Spread

Oct 14 / 61.8% / 38.7% / Obama by 23.1%

Oct 14 / 61.5% / 38.6% / Obama by 22.9%

Oct 14 / 61.1% / 38.6% / Obama by 22.5% 

Aug 20  / 57% / 41.6%  / Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

3553

DaveW

incumbent Presidents are usually re-elected -- they have many advantages, esp. visibility -- unless the economy is stagnant and not visibly improving (Jimmy Carter) and/or there is also a 3rd-party challenger (Carter, Bush I certainly; perhaps also Clinton/Gore)

Obama should hold Ohio, given the rebound in employment in autos/the Toledo region, and that could well tip the balance, although he is doing historically well in traditional Republican states like Colorado and Arizona, while Florida is a toss-up...

NorthReport

Whoo! Hoo!

 

The Gamblers

Date / Obama / Romney / Spread

Oct 17 / 65.0% / 35.0% / Obama by 30.0%

Oct 16 / 60.6% / 39.3% / Obama by 21.3%

Aug 20  / 57% / 41.6%  / Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

3517

 

NorthReport

Somebody or maybe everybody, is wrong Laughing

 

Oct 19 / 291.6 / 246.4

Oct 19 / 70.4 / 29.6

Oct 19 50.3 / 48.8

www.fivethirtyeight.com

 

Oct 19 / 281 / 257

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

Oct 19 / 62.4% / 37.5%

www.intrade.com

3818

DaveW
NorthReport

Canada has it's "everyone is out of step" except Nanos, and the USA has Ramussen & Gallup. Go figure.

BTW that Gallup lead for Romney has shrunk from 7% to 3% in less than a week, and Obama is now leading in Ohio by 5% according to Time pollsters.

 

 

NorthReport

Barring some major voter fraud, which is unheard of in the USA as per the Texas Attorney General who does not want international scrutineers, it appears Obama has a lock on getting re-elected.

 

63.3% vs 36.7% or Obama by 26.6%

www.intrade.com

 

Now for the races to control Congress.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senat...

 

4039

Ippurigakko

US presidential candidate Canadian preference

              Obama / Romney / Neither / Dunno
total         76%           13%         7%             3%
18-34        75%          11%          8%            6%
35-44        76%          11%       10%            2%
45-54        76%           17%        5%            2%
55-64        76%           13%         7%           4%
65+          78%           15%        4%           2%
Male         73%            18%        7%           2%
Female     80%              9%        7%           5%
Atlantic    80%            12%        7%           2%
Quebec    87%                5%       4%          4%
Ontario    72%             16%         8%         4%
Prairies    69%             16%      15%          0%
Alberta     74%             18%        5%          2%
BC           71%             17%        9%          4%

for more info here:
https://forumresearch.ca/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/23440_Can...

NorthReport

It's crunch time folks, and as we approach next Tuesday, November 6, Obama's spread advantage over Romney with the oddsmakers is substantially enlarging, closing in on 40% now.

Oct 27: 63.3% vs 36.7% or Obama by 26.6%

Oct 31: 68.7% vs 31.3% or Obama by 37.4%

www.intrade.com

DaveW

I will not link to Karl Rove's piece in the Wall Street Journal today, to not give it any extra hits,

but suffice it to say that he notes many recent close-race national polls and concludes the late-deciders are breaking for Romney: 51-48 the result, he "predicts"; bookmark that one

Meanwhile RealClearPolitics shows that almost all of the big flip states -- Pennsylvania, Ohio -- remain solidly Obama, and even Virginia and Florida too close to call ...

I still say Obama: incumbents get re-elected unless things are perceived as terrible (cf. Carter), and this economy is clearly better for key  demographics, esp. industrial workers in the Midwest

go, Mr. O. Tongue out

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Spike Jones wrote:

It's a beautiful day for the race
Stooge Hand is the favorite today
Assault is in there
Dog Biscuit is 3 to 1
Safety Pin has been scratched
Ya ya
And at 20 to 1 ... Beetlebomb

What a great horse race.

Cool

DaveW
6079_Smith_W

I wouldn't say any of it is easy or certain. All of it comes down to next Tuesday, and there is still plenty of room for things to go sideways.

Me, I'm starting to feel like this kid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OjrthOPLAKM

voice of the damned

6079_Smith_W wrote:

I wouldn't say any of it is easy or certain. All of it comes down to next Tuesday, and there is still plenty of room for things to go sideways.

Me, I'm starting to feel like this kid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OjrthOPLAKM

That reminds me of when I was a kid, and the TV premiere of Battlestar Galactica, which I was VERY excited about for reasons that now elude me, was interrupted for live coverage of the signing of the Camp David accords between Israel and Egypt. And the speeches of Begin, Carter, and Sadat just went on and on. And on.

I was fairly politially savvy, by pre-teen standards, but I could not get my head around how BATTLESTAR GALACTICA could be tossed into the bin for the signing of some peace-treaty. I told my father there must be a mistake, maybe the network was running the same report over and over again? No, he told me, you just don't understand, this is more important than Battlestar Galactica. 

If I recall correctly, they never got back to Battlestar Galactica that evening. I think I lost interest in it fairly shortly afterwards.

    

voice of the damned

Hm. I think I have to stand corrected. According to wiki, the pilot of BG was resumed after the Camp David coverage was finished.

http://tinyurl.com/as4l4gq

DaveW

back to the subject, polls;

Mr. O lookin' good, I would say:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109473/daily-breakdown-obama-enters-...

NorthReport

And we know what Rasmussen is up to. Laughing

NorthReport

Looking good for Obama!

 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

DaveW

... I was just going to post that; the comments at end are very interesting, too

in the I-told-you-so dept.: there are just so many Republican commentators being posted at RealClearPolitics saying: Obama really blew his popular support this way and that, it could never work, the American people bla bla ... etc etc.

by contrast, this is  a very astute guy, calling it for Romney:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-han...

I will hold on until the final whistle sounds, but still lookin' good right now for a few nyah-nyahs post-election

NorthReport

DaveW

There is going to be a lot of soul-searching in the GOP after this election to try and understand how the party to abolish slavery has morphed into a white people only party.

If Obama handles it properly the Dems should be able to pick up control of the House in 2014.

The important message coming out of this election from the Dems should be that the American people have rejected the right-wing meanness of the Paul Ryans of this world. 

 

NorthReport

The only reason the Romney / Ryan / Republican / GOP camp are afraid is that Nate is exposing their attempted manipulation of the voters

Hey, hacks: Nate Silver’s not taking your job

Pundits appear especially threatened by the New York Times math wiz this election cycle. Why are they so scared?

 

 

Aristotleded24

NorthReport wrote:
DaveW

There is going to be a lot of soul-searching in the GOP after this election to try and understand how the party to abolish slavery has morphed into a white people only party.

If Obama handles it properly the Dems should be able to pick up control of the House in 2014.

The important message coming out of this election from the Dems should be that the American people have rejected the right-wing meanness of the Paul Ryans of this world.

The Democrats need that soul-searching as well, because they are just going to deliver on the Republican agenda anyways. Remember how Bush failed to privatize social security but Obama himself put that option back on the table?

NorthReport

Repreat after me: "This is all Paul Ryan's fault" Wink

electoral college

290 vs 248

senate

54 vs 46 (+1 for Dems)

house

178 vs 224 Frown

www.realclearpolitics.com 

NorthReport

With less than 3 days to go still looking good for Obama!

306.9 +11.4 vs 231

85.1 +11.5 vs 14.9

50.6 +0.3 vs 48

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-...

www.fivethirtyeight.com

 

65.7 vs 31.3, Obama ahead by 34.4

www.intrade.com

 

 

 

NorthReport

70.3 vs 29.9  Obama by 40.4 

www.intrade.com

josh

The popular vote seems to be moving in Obama's direction the last 48 hours. ABC's final tracker has Obama up 50-47. Three days ago it was Romney 49-48. Polls in the battleground are also looking fairly good. But it's still close.

NorthReport

Monday evening update: Nate Silver pushes Obama’s chances above 90 percent

UPDATED: The 10 p.m. numbers from every Democrat's favorite stats geek show dramatic new movement to the president

Silver’s widely respected because he correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, along with all of the year’s Senate elections, and came within percentage points of predicting the popular vote.

Other results from Silver’s Monday evening update:

* He predicts Obama will win 314.4 electoral votes, to 223.6 for Mitt Romney.

* Silver also has Obama winning the popular vote, with 50.9 percent to Romney’s 48.2.

* Among swing states, Silver has turned Florida blue. He has Obama as a 52.5 percent favorite there. Obama is also favored to take Virginia (80.3 percent), Colorado (80.3 percent), Ohio (91.2 percent), New Hampshire (84.9 percent) and Iowa (85 percent).

* Silver installed Romney as a 72.4 percent favorite in North Carolina.

ctrl190

http://www.270towin.com/

Fun and user friendly site where you can make your own electoral college map.

Playing around with it you can definitely see how Obama has more paths to victory.

Here is my prediction:

 

NorthReport

 Date / Time / Obama / Romney / Spread

Nov 6 / 12:05 PM PT / 72% / 28% / 44%

Nov 6 / 10:05 AM PT / 69.6% / 30.3% / 39.3%

Nov 6 / 8:35 AM PT / 73.7% / 26.5% / 47.2%

Nov 6 / 8:30 AM PT / 73.2% / 26.9% / 46.3% 

Nov 6 / 72.5% / 27.5% / Obama by 45.0%

Nov 5 / 70.3% / 40.4% / Obama by 29.9%

Nov 5 / 65.7% / 34.4% / Obama by 31.3%

www.intrade.com

NorthReport

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NorthReport

 

 Date / Time / Obama / Romney / Spread

Nov 6 / 12:55 PM PT / 69.9% / 29.9% / 40%

Nov 6 / 12:05 PM PT / 72% / 28% / 44%

Nov 6 / 10:05 AM PT / 69.6% / 30.3% / 39.3%

Nov 6 / 8:35 AM PT / 73.7% / 26.5% / 47.2%

Nov 6 / 8:30 AM PT / 73.2% / 26.9% / 46.3% 

Nov 6 / 72.5% / 27.5% / Obama by 45.0%

Nov 5 / 70.3% / 40.4% / Obama by 29.9%

Nov 5 / 65.7% / 34.4% / Obama by 31.3%

www.intrade.com

 

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