Latest USA polling results

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NorthReport
NorthReport

As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage

 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/as-nation-and-partie...

DaveW

NorthReport wrote:

Monday evening update: Nate Silver pushes Obama’s chances above 90 percent

UPDATED: The 10 p.m. numbers from every Democrat's favorite stats geek show dramatic new movement to the president

Silver’s widely respected because he correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, along with all of the year’s Senate elections, and came within percentage points of predicting the popular vote.

Nate Silver came out of this with greatly increased credibility ...

NorthReport

And Rasmussen and Gallup didn't.

josh

Public Policy Polling did extremely well.  Their final state polls were far and away the best.

NorthReport

Real Clear Politics is discredited as well as it is obviously a right-of-centre political website and its biases were self-evident throughout the campaign.  

JKR

The Democrats received more than 500 thousand more votes than the Republicans in the election of the House of Representatives  that saw the Republicans win a big majority!!

Gerrymandering turned the Democratic lead in votes cast into a 232 - 193 Republican win!!

Why Americans Actually Voted For A Democratic House

How Ridiculous Gerrymanders Saved the House Republican Majority

josh

It'll probably end up 235-200.  But the point's the same.

The 2010 election cost Democrats the ability to affect redistricting in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  And that probably cost them control of the house.

Meanwhile, the largest gender gap ever:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Nov10.html#item-1

 

NorthReport

Josh,

Is there any way that federal politics, the voting and the ballot counting process,  could be taken out of the hands of the state governments?

NorthReport

Forget Nate Silver: Meet The Guy Who Called 2012 In 2002


http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/forget-nate-silver-meet-the-gu...

 

 

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Josh,

Is there any way that federal politics, the voting and the ballot counting process,  could be taken out of the hands of the state governments?

Not as long as the electoral college is around.

NorthReport
josh
NorthReport

Tks again Josh -  this is very informative.

And Canadian polling firm Angus Reid did quite well I see.

Silver appears to have a good handle on what he is doing because he is being quite scientific about it, and does not get into the editorial pontification bs that many people in the industry feel the need to do. Let's use some of his methods to bypass some of the nonsense we get from some of the polling firms and some pundits here in Canada from now on. It is so easy to rig polls and Silver's approach below can offset the rigging to a certain extent.

"Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms."

I wonder if anyone has gone back and conducted a similiar type analysis of what the various polling firms have done in Canada.

5319

 

 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

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NorthReport

Romney in his private sessions with big money (Boca Raton anyone), told his doners that 47% of the people in the USA are mooching off the government.

How ironic as it looks like Romney got 47% of the vote - that's poetic justice for ya. Laughing

So it wasn't even that close, and Obama actually whomped him.

josh

I don't know about whomp, but it was a bigger victory than had been expected.  Right now, Obama's lead exceeds 4 million, and his percentage lead is 50.8 to 47.5.  As noted, by the time the final votes are counted, Romney's total, rounded, should be 47%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/poetic-justice-romney-likely-to-finish-at-47-percent/2012/11/20/8a84ad4e-3351-11e2-9cfa-e41bac906cc9_blog.html

NorthReport

The race was nowhere near as close as most media were suggesting.

 

Joe Scarborough to Nate Silver: “I’m sorry”

After publicly deriding the poll guru's methodology, the Morning Joe co-host offers a belated apology

NorthReport

This is sad, very flippin' sad!

Obama is just no match for determined right-wing bullshit that permeates the good ole USA. mind you he doesn't seem to have the sense of urgency that is required when there is a fuckup. he should have fired the political person in charge of that malfunctioning healthcare website a long, long time ago, and now the Democrats will be paying a serious price in the 2014 Congressional elections.

CNN/ORC poll: Democrats lose 2014 edge following Obamacare uproar

Posted byCNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser

Washington (CNN) – What a difference a month makes.

A new CNN/ORC International poll indicates a dramatic turnaround in the battle for control of Congress in next year's midterm elections.

Democrats a month ago held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates.

That result came after congressional Republicans appeared to overplay their hand in the bitter fight over the federal government shutdown and the debt ceiling.

But the Democratic lead has disappeared. A new CNN/ORC poll indicates the GOP now holds a 49%-47% edge.

The new survey was conducted last week and released Tuesday.

The 10-point swing follows a political uproar over Obamacare, which included the botched rollout of HealthCare.gov and controversy over insurance policy cancelations due primarily to the new health law.

 

 

 

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/26/cnnorc-poll-democrats-lo...

 

wage zombie

NorthReport wrote:

Obama is just no match for determined right-wing bullshit that permeates the good ole USA. mind you he doesn't seem to have the sense of urgency that is required when there is a fuckup. he should have fired the political person in charge of that malfunctioning healthcare website a long, long time ago, and now the Democrats will be paying a serious price in the 2014 Congressional elections.

As far as the web site goes he didn't really have much of a choice.  If he had delayed the rollout to get the web site right, that would have been the end of Obamacare.  Republicans couldn't stop it from going out but if the rollout ws delayed they could have blocked it indefinitely.

Web sites get rolled out all the time before they are ready.  Clients act like it is the end of the world.  A web site not working properly is actually never the end of the world.

Despite all these issues, I'm still hopeful that the ACA will be successful, both as a big step towards real health care and as a winning political strategy.

Aristotleded24

The issue with Obamacare is that it is very complex, and in some cases people actually end up paying more for their plans under Obamacare than they did before. Yes there has been plenty of criticism on this issue from the right, but criticism from the left has also been ignored. That criticism is that he tried too hard to compromise with the same insurance companies that have messed up health care in the US for so long. All he had to do was phase in expansion of Medicare until the whole population was covered. Medicare is popular so it's a simple enough thing to explain, and people would get it right away.

Nope. Obama is the author of his own woes.

NorthReport

wz,

Can't agree with you there.

There has to be accountability and responsibility.

Yes, the President's health care package is better than what Americans had before, but the Secretary responsible should have ensured that the wrinkles were ironed out before the launch of the web site, particularly because  the GOP had turned health care into such a contentious issue. It is still not too late but Obama needs to fire that Secretary responsible for this disaster now!

wage zombie

Yes, Obama allowed himself to be stuck having to deliver on a system that needed to be everything to everybody.

But, software projects always ship late.  Almost always.  In the software world, if something isn't ready to ship, people are adults about it and put stuff off if they can (mostly).

In the political world, Obama lost the House, and delaying the rollout was not something he could do without putting the whole thing in jeopardy.  I'm only defending his decision to knowingly roll out software that wasn't ready rather than canning the whole thing.  Sometimes you just need to bite the bullet and release what you have.

I think the ACA will only look better from here on in.  Vermont is using it to implement single payer, California is using it to insure large numbers of currently uninsured (exceeding targets), and Kentucky's kynect is showing that a red state with a Democratic state govt can see real benefits.  Divide and conquer.  State races can now be fought over whether policians are willing to take the free Obamacare money for Medicaid expansions.

As unsatisfying as Obama's been, when his term is over, the ACA could well be biggest accomplishment in 50 years.

wage zombie

I think there is a lot to criticize in the rollout.

For example, at Walgreens and CVS drug stores across the USA, USians can go in and buy health care the same way BC residents can buy ICBC insurance at London Drugs.  They can sit down and talk to a real person about their health care options and pick the best plan for them.  The drug store gets a commission from the insurance company, the patient pas the same price that they would on the web site.

But most people are unaware of this.  Once the awareness is there and people are signed up, the hurdles have been jumped.

Personally I have more criticisms of the communications strategies of the rollout campaign.

It sounds like they made a poor choice in finding the company to build the project.  But this probably says more about how government contracts tend to favour the lowest bid moreso than the people who can do the job.

abnormal

Aristotleded24 wrote:

The issue with Obamacare is that it is very complex, and in some most cases people actually end up paying more for their plans under Obamacare than they did before.

I fixed your post.

Quote:
Nope. Obama is the author of all of his own woes.

Without a doubt.

wage zombie

New poll: Americans optimistic about Obamacare, overwhelmingly oppose GOP position

Quote:

CNN has a very interesting new poll that not only debunks the notion that Americans have already decided Obamacare is a failure, but also reveals that Americans overwhelmingly oppose the GOP's conservative critique of the health care law.

According to the poll (pdf), which surveyed American adults between Nov. 18-20 with a margin of error of ±3.5 points:

  1. Most Americans believe Obamacare's current problems will be solved. 54 percent say they believe current problems will be fixed, compared with 43 percent who say they won't be.
  2. Most Americans believe it's too early to judge whether Obamacare is a success or failure. A total of 53 percent think it is too early to say whether Obamacare is a success or failure. A total of 39 percent think it's a failure and 8 percent already think it is a success.
  3. Most Americans do not support conservative critiques of Obamacare. According to the poll, 41 percent of Americans think Obamacare is too liberal, slightly more than 40 percent who support Obamacare. But 14 percent think it's not liberal enough.

As you might expect, the poll's crosstabs show that most Republicans are certain Obamacare can't be fixed and has already failed, but outside of the GOP universe, people aren't merely open to Obamacare, they are optimistic about its prospects and want it to work.

Obviously, it doesn't matter how open or optimistic the public is if the Obama administration can't ultimately deliver on the promise of Obamacare, but if they do, most Americans are on their side. Republicans have bet everything on failure. If they lose that bet, it will be an absolute political nightmare for them—and it should be.

NorthReport

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