2018 Ontario Polls

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jerrym

Mighty Middle, the ONPULSE poll you are quoting in the last post had May 20th as the last day of polling. In that poll the PCs had a 1% lead. Since then, there have been seven polls, six of them showing the NDP with an average lead of 3%, including the most recent of all polls which is also from ONPULSE  showing a lead of 4% for the NDP.

Mighty Middle

jerrym wrote:

Mighty Middle, the ONPULSE poll you are quoting in the last post had May 20th as the last day of polling. In that poll the PCs had a 1% lead. Since then, there have been seven polls, six of them showing the NDP with an average lead of 3%, including the most recent of all polls which is also from ONPULSE  showing a lead of 4% for the NDP.

Here is the new updated one from OnPulse, The survey was completed on May 25 and 26, 2018.

 

jerrym

Here's an unscientific poll of Toronto Star readers showing Horwath won the debate.

Readers were asked the question:

Who did best in the final Ontario election debate?

Doug Ford  30.02%  (3,040 votes)  

Andrea Horwath  36.75%  (3,722 votes)  

Kathleen Wynne  23.63%  (2,393 votes)  

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/27/final-ontario-electio...

 

NorthReport

 

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Polls still show growing support for , with and sliding: - 17 seats - 58 seats - 49 seats

 

https://twitter.com/calculatedpoli/status/1001063161989074944

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

n/a

Let's be clear that Mighty Liberal has picked one of the few recent polls that do not show the NDP leading. He edited the data to make sure that you did not see the momentum (NDP up 5, PC NC Liberal down 5) and the increase in accessible NDP voters. He edited the point of the poll article which showed why both the PC and NDP could win just to show you one side -- so you would think the conclusion was only one-sided.

Mighty Liberal left out this:

"This table gives us a good sense of who is winning the campaign thus far. The Tories are holding onto much of their support, the NDP is converting undecideds and attracting some Liberals, while the Liberals are leaking support to the NDP and undecided category." [Table shows gains and attrition]

Good to insist that the trolls on this site provide full links so you can see what they are editing out of their propaganda.

http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-...

Also if you see the full data you can see more signs of bias and logical lapses:

Example:

Contention that the Conservatives being more evenly spread in regions means they ahve a better chance. Hmm ask the Liberal Manitoba party how that works out: second in cities and second in rural areas leading to almost nothing. What matters is not regional evenness but efficiency in individual seats and not having wasted votes pile up in some places falling shor in others. There is not enough data right now with the significant changes for any pollster to really say if the NDP or Conservatives have the bigger problem here. This also makes a difference based on support levels. Even good distribution is about lots of close wins. This is only a couple support points away from a lot of close losses. The entire argument is based on a mound of bullshit since it is impossible to know which edge of the knife edge you are on.

Example:

Ford is strong becuase he is not losing his right flank. What utter bullshit. Ford has no worries about his right flank and that is not what will decide this. Ford's problem will be if he cannot retain three critcal groups:

1) middle aged supporters (he has the seniors)

2) suburban voters (this is the big 905 question)

3) his more centre supporters who might consider voting NDP or Liberal.

The idea that as long as he keeps the most right wing of his supporters he is fine it a real joke and shows either stupidity of the writer or that the whole piece is propaganda.

Truth is that the Conservatives need a share of the group that defines themselves as centre to win -- they have the right unless there is a surge in small right-wing parties. The NDP has to worry about their centre voters not the left. And they have to worry about voting rates among their supporters.

Example

The contention that the fact that a lead in 2014 voters is hugely significant ignores the fact that this difference is only 4% and the NDP has a 4% of those who did not vote or don't remember. Four years means there is turnover in who is voting as each group is 4 years older.  The benefit here is marginal since we are talking about a 4% advantage each way so the real advantage -- if any is likely half of that unless we presume that there are going to be absolutely no people voting between the ages of 18 and 22 and no voters who did not vote in that age group who are now 22-26 that will now vote.

Example:

The Right is consolidated around Ford. This is a real logical joke. So if the right is already consolidated around Ford, this indicates there is little room to grow.  The split on the left is only important if this exists in individual ridings. If the NDP and the Liberal support are not even (as the poll points out) and they each have stronger areas then the Conservative vote is pittted not just against the next party but also a combination of places where the Liberals are their strongest opposition in some places and the NDP in others. This is not just true regionally -- it is even more true on a seat-by-seat basis.

Now of course Might Liberal did not include this:

"CAN THE NDP WIN THE ELECTION?

"Short answer: Absolutely. I’ve felt that way after looking at the data from our very first survey.

"By the way, our ability to see this potential is thanks to the depth of our analysis and the quality of our surveys. I think it’s what separates my team at Abacus Data from other firms and it’s how we approach all the work we do.

"Here’s why I feel the NDP can still pull off an upset.

"First, the NDP has the most room to grow. There are still two weeks left in this campaign and two thirds of the electorate is open to voting NDP. More important, that number has increased by almost 10 points since early April while the PC and Liberal pools have shrunk over time.

"Second, the NDP has momentum and momentum is a powerful force in politics. Heading into the long weekend, this is exactly where the NDP wants to be. There are neck and neck with the Tories, the Liberals are sinking, and the number of “convertible” NDP voters continues to grow.

"Third, the more people get to know Andrea Horwath, the more they like her. She had a great debate on CityNews, continues to perform well in public appearances, and is making friends without making many enemies. Her negatives have held steady while her positives have increased by 14 points since early April. The opposite is happening to her primary opponent now, Doug Ford.

"Fourth, only the NDP can appeal to voters who want change and those afraid of Doug Ford at the same time. Voting NDP kills two birds with one stone: you get change and stop Ford. And we find evidence that as more people come to recognize the NDP’s lead over the Liberals, its support will continue to grow.

"Finally, few fear the prospect of an NDP government. Two-thirds feel the NDP and Horwath can govern as well as anyone else including 55% of Liberal supporters and 36% of PC supporters. Moreover, when we ask how they would react to the different parties winning the election, only 19% say they would be dismayed if the NDP formed a government after the election. Less than half of the number who feel the same about the Tories and 34 points lower than those feeling the same about a Liberal win.

Then there is this:

"One thing that is clearer today than two weeks ago is the likely fate of Ms. Wynne and the Liberals. While some popular Liberal MPPs could be saved by voters torn between their desire for change and their affinity for their local representative, the 15-year Liberal dynasty is likely coming to an end. All the key metrics are heading in the wrong direction for them. Unless the public changes its mind about Andrea Horwath, it’s improbable that the Liberals will have enough time to turn things around now that they are clearly in third place. "

This is a classic example of how a troll works on this site:

1) they do not give a link

2) They select the data they want ignoring anythign that balances it

3) they pretend that what they are showing is representative and really coming from someone else

4) They know that if anyone goes to the original source they will have a different view that that they showed (reason for #1)

And the drip-drip trolling of an extremely dishonest troll called Mighty Middle (read mighty liberal) continues.

One strategy regarding this troll: Find the source he does not want you to see and share that so you can see how dishonest he is with his selective quotes.

NorthReport

 

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Ontario Poll Tracker updated, with the NDP's odds of winning the most seats now more than 1 in 5. Odds of PC majority now a coin toss.

 

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1001114410696499201

NorthReport

Andrea Horwath's New Democrats have consistently gained support throughout the campaign and have moved ahead of Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives. The PCs still have a better regional distribution of their vote and so are slightly favoured to win more seats. But the odds of a PC majority are now a coin flip, while the odds of the NDP winning the most seats has jumped to more than 1 in 5. The Liberals appear to have hit their floor in support.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

NorthReport

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Frank Graves Retweeted Doug Johnson Hatlem

I agree and I think your 50/50 was always way more plausible than some of the science fiction coming from the public broadxaster.

Frank Graves added,

Doug Johnson Hatlem @djjohnso

Replying to @VoiceOfFranky @Dleebosh

I always had Ford at 50-50 majority. Much of what happens in these snatch defeat from the jaws of victory campaigns for PCs in Ontario is just undecided Lib/NDP people deciding which one they will vote for this time. https://twitter.com/djjohnso/status/980854498313818112?s=21 

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1000921367536132097

NorthReport

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Paul Wells Retweeted John Michael McGrath

It's kind of gross to put Forum poll numbers under the feed window as though they constituted information.

Paul Wells added,

John Michael McGrath @jm_mcgrath

Watching Kathleen Wynne speak at the Toronto Star ed board. https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/28/live-at-1-pm-kathleen...

 

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/1001149865521364992

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Andrea Horwath's New Democrats have consistently gained support throughout the campaign and have moved ahead of Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives. The PCs still have a better regional distribution of their vote and so are slightly favoured to win more seats. But the odds of a PC majority are now a coin flip, while the odds of the NDP winning the most seats has jumped to more than 1 in 5. The Liberals appear to have hit their floor in support.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

The problem here is that polls measure support levels regionally. There is not enough data with things still moving especially to know for sure if distribution is actually favourable to one party or another when it comes to lead parties. It is easier to know with a distant party as there are either some strongholds or not and you need those to get seats in the 20 point range. At 35% nobody really knows if these votes will actually come out nevermind if they will be near wins (efficient) or near losses (inefficient) it is BS for the pollsters to say otherwise. The assumptions made here is that the 2014 distribution of the vote is the same now as it was then. This is illogical. Fist the NDP has nearly doubled their vote. How well distributed this new support level is would be a guess. Also the Conservatives are not that strong so it looks like they have gained some Ford voters in the GTA but not much in other places. Will this mean wins or just more close losses? You have to make faulty assumptions to even pretend to know.

This is in fact one of the problems with polling -- it is not just the reliability of the data but the over-confidence in the ability to interpret it based on a history that has little in common with the present.

Pollsters may get support levels correct or not but to attempt to say that efficiency and distribution is scientific when the bases and support levels have changed dramatically is arrogance. It is not even an art -- it is fortune-telling.

Sean in Ottawa

Here is another issue: even with undecided low, it is less likely that they will go to Ford now than to either the Liberals or NDP. At the start of the campaign I said that the NDP had the advantage in the undecided. I said this as people were looking to either stop Ford or stop Wynne. Now it is clear that Wynne is stopped so I think the stop Wynne votes have already been decided. If you are undecided now then I think you are more likely between NDP and Liberal. So the NDP may have lost the advantage having gained already. Now I think the Conservatives have a disadvantage and more of the undecided will break to the NDP and Liberals than to Ford. He is more polarizing and so it is hard to imagine anyone not for or against him by this point. If you are agianst there are two chocie. If you are for you are already with him.

This is the truly bad news for Wynne: If you are against Ford and open to NDP or Liberal then the large lead the NDP have over the Liberals suggest a break to the NDP as somewhat more likely. The thing is if you have not yet gone to the NDP, there may be resistance there. We are getting close to the point where I think people now undecided are becoming less likely to vote at all. and this is where the poll numbers usually get a bit more accurate.

NorthReport

PCs 37%, Up 1%

NDP 34%, Down 3%

Libs 22%, Down 1%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4236201/ontario-election-poll-ndp-soften-pc-l...

Mighty Middle

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

One strategy regarding this troll:

Babble Comment Policy

Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited.

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

One strategy regarding this troll:

Babble Comment Policy

Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited.

This is not a personal attack. You are being called a troll becuase you are trolling here. If you do not like it stop trolling and the responses will stop.

Quoting parts of articles to mislead people about the point of an article is trolling.

Mighty Middle

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Quoting parts of articles to mislead people about the point of an article is trolling.

The next time I'll post the whole article so there is no confusion and no misunderstanding.

NorthReport

OTOH, this is encouraging. Is this the first day we’ve seen Horwath’s seat range break into majority territory?

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/1001162174813884416

NorthReport

There is no change for that Ipsos poll out today within the margin of error.  

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Quoting parts of articles to mislead people about the point of an article is trolling.

The next time I'll post the whole article so there is no confusion and no misunderstanding.

Post a link and your point. Make your point not disagree with the point of the article while implying that it came from the article.

Posting the whole article is against copyright and puts this site in a difficult position.

But you know all this and are trolling...

comes down to provide links and do not misrepresent articles. You do not have to post the whole thing to do that

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

There is no change for that Ipsos poll out today within the margin of error.  

There will be attempts to manufacture momentum out of this even if there is none now.

NorthReport

This is interesting:

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Those of you who follow the . Daily Tracker will notice the . have gained substantially on the . As of last night, the NDP have the lead, a majority government is now possible Stay tuned for new . poll coming soon

6:42 AM - 28 May 2018

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1001096466004262913

Mighty Middle

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

But you know all this and are trolling...

I'll just post the whole thing so there is no confusion and no misunderstanding. It would be better that way.

NorthReport

Looks like Mainstreet might be releasing their latest public poll in just over 1/2 hour at 2 PM ET today.

NorthReport

Great news in the latest poll for Andrea 

NorthReport

| 39.3% | 37.9% | 16% | May 27-28 n=1,579 IVR to landline and cell phones

 

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1001206481751027714

NorthReport

Mainstreet Polls showing the NDP has gained 14% on the PCs in the last 10 days and Andrea is headed towards the Premier's office.

Party / May 18  / May 28 / Difference

NDP / 29.3% / 39.3% / Up 10%

PCs / 41.9% / 37.9% / Down 4%

Libs / 22.3% / 16% / Down 6.3%

 

NorthReport

NDP keeps surging, Doug Ford 'has blown' the lead

http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/05/28/ndp-keeps-surging-doug-ford-has-bl...

NorthReport

NDP Surge Past PCs Into The Lead

“If these trends continue, the NDP can well win the election without the millennial vote coming out to vote in droves.”

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-surge-past-pcs-into-the-lead/

josh
Misfit Misfit's picture

Doug Ford's core support base seems to be in the same range as Trump's.

JKR

Misfit wrote:

Doug Ford's core support base seems to be in the same range as Trump's.

IQ range?

NorthReport

I think Andrea needs 41 or 42 % to be sure to defeat Doug Ford. Gotta keep the momentum up!

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/1001252066730434561

clambake

These polls are giving me way too much anxiety. The thought of Ford with a majority for four years is terrifying. Given their voter efficiency, I feel like the NDP should be at least 4 points up on the PCs to win this. Fuck FPTP

NorthReport

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Seeing a post debate bump for the . s tonight/today PCs back up on top as a result

 

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1001267471775494146

NorthReport

Why is it so complicated for Canadian mainstream media to say what's actually happening as Reuters is able to do, eh!

Ontario polls shift to left in two-way race to replace Liberals

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-election-ontario/ontario-polls...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Premier is less and less mentioned on social media. Joy is up 29% in the overall sentiment conversation about the campaign while anger is down 24%

 

https://twitter.com/yanplante/status/1001547994859298816

NorthReport

EKOS will be out with a poll around Noon tomorrow.

josh
josh
Sean in Ottawa

Well this is the advantage of the pollsters underestimating the number of seats the NDP would get. If the Pollsters say that a 3 point lead over the Conservatives by the NDP is still a Ford majority -- that may make voters want to give the NDP a 10 point lead.

These numbers using the flawed too-close-to-call site give 80 NDP and 44 Conservative -- and nobody else.

It gives the Conservatives Kingston although the local poll has the NDP ahead....

It gives Orleans to the Conservatives but that would be a shock as the Conservatives are unlikely to win that with those numbers (the Liberals would take it)

The Liberals at 17% would not be flat so I think they might still get a couple seats.

A ten point lead is a massive majority.

NorthReport

Innovative 

Party / May 23 / May 29 / Difference 

NDP / 31% / 36% / Up 5%

PCs / 36% / 34% / Down 2%

Libs / 26% / 22% / Down 4%

NorthReport

Some of the reasons 

PCs  No costed  platform

Doug Ford Public had a chance to see him in action during debate where he was sort of forced to answer questions and voters were turned off

Andrea talks about representing average People in Ontario 

 

Pollara

Party / May 23 / May 29 / Difference

NDP / 38% / 43% / Up 5%

PCs / 37% / 32% / Down 5%

Libs / 18% / 17% / Down 1%

NorthReport

CBC's Poll Tracker are not rushing to add the Maclean's Pollara poll like they always do when it is a favourable poll for Liberals. 

Who knew!

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

NorthReport

It's absurd to attach oneself to any one pollster all the time.

Some people have beeen pounding out post after post after post in the federal polling thread about how bad Forum is and how good Nanos is.

And in the current Ontario election, Forum was ridiculed here for their May 23rd poll, but Pollara has just released an almost identical poll. Who knew! I suppose Pollara will now be ridiculed as well. In this Ontario election it looks like Nanos polling was out to lunch and Ipsos Reid might possibly be quite off the mark as well. 

People say they know about herding, but not one poster here has provided us with any actual concrete polling results taking herding into account. Years ago we did that here, and Ipsos and Angus Reid were the most accurate pollsters at the time. But that was then, and this is now, and nothing is ever cast in stone, and it is time to stop the BS.

The reality is every election some pollsters do well and some not so well and they all take turns being close and far away from the actual results. But no one pollster ever has a handle on all the truth all the time.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Great post by Wells!

If he gets money out of a poll that shows his campaign is melting like ice cream on the counter than I'm happy to have been of service.

Paul Wells added,

Marieke WalshVerified account @MariekeWalsh

Ford fundraising email today: “they’re lying again... Some hucksters called "Pollara" did an online survey, and the media is reporting it like real news.” Ford last week: “I don’t pay attention to the polls” #onpoli #onelxn

 

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/1001623612430761984

NorthReport

Andrea and her team have come a long way!

1/6 Post-debate results from our online poll conducted from May 27th-May 29th, 2018: The NDP is now at 36%, a marginal 2% point lead over the PCs (34%), while the Liberals have dropped to a campaign low of 22%. Click for the full report:

 

NorthReport
josh
NorthReport

The NDP are leading in 10 of the last twelve polls

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