2018 Ontario Polls

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Mighty Middle

Ken Burch wrote:

Not sure why Eastern Ontario remains loyal to the Liberals.  Is it the whole "Franco-Ontarian" thing?  Is there some belief on the part of that community that no party OTHER than the OLP would ever "defend their interests"?  If so, that's a little weird, given that to my recollection, the Rae government didn't do Franco-Ontarians any harm or put any of their rights at risk.

How much does the leader's knowledge of working french come into play?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Not sure why Eastern Ontario remains loyal to the Liberals.  Is it the whole "Franco-Ontarian" thing?  Is there some belief on the part of that community that no party OTHER than the OLP would ever "defend their interests"?  If so, that's a little weird, given that to my recollection, the Rae government didn't do Franco-Ontarians any harm or put any of their rights at risk.

How much does the leader's knowledge of working french come into play?

I can't actually respond to that, because I don't know how much command of working French each of the three major leaders actually has.   It's hard to believe that the ONDP(or the OCCF before 1961)  would NEVER have chosen a leader who had such command.   Bob Rae was strongly bilingual IIRC. 

Mind you, the PC's have also been strong in Eastern Ontario-especially in the "Common Sense Revolution" years- and they were historically the anti-francophone party(and anti-Catholic) party in that province-they were "Orange" in the horrible bigoted Ulster sense of the term.

And I'm not sure Rob Ford even has a command of working English.

Can anybody else speak to Horwath's command of French?  Or what she has proposed that was specifically designed to appeal to Franco-Ontarians?  I'm fairly sure the ONDP is just as committed to the concept of a bilingual Ontario as the OLP-any party on the left-of-center side of the political spectrum WOULD be, after all.

cco

I was watching RDI last weekend, and they did a segment on the Ontario election. Wynne's French makes Harper sound like Molière; however, Ford and (most disappointingly) Horwath didn't even attempt to speak it.

Mighty Middle

If Horwath wins she will no choice but to appoint a Deputy Premier that can speak french. Because the french media will not accept answers from the government in english to the issues of the day.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mighty Middle wrote:

If Horwath win she will no choice but to appoint a Deputy Premier that can speak french. Because the french media will not accept answers from the government in english to the issues of the day.

She's probably got a lot of people in her caucus, and among the field of ONDP candidates, who could fit that bill.  Bilingual education has been a fact of life in much of Ontario for decades now.   She can also use that as a pitch to gain votes in Eastern Ontario, since we can assume that most ONDP candidates there are Franco-Ontarian.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

​(self-delete. dupe posts).

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Bob Rae was strongly bilingual IIRC.

Talking out of both sides of your mouth is not quite the same as bilingual. 

Ciabatta2

Bisson is francophone and so are candidates liek Bourgouin.  So it won't be a problem for her.

Mighty Middle

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Bisson is francophone and so are candidates liek Bourgouin.  So it won't be a problem for her.

Not to mention France Gelinas

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

I don't see why people are getting upset. The NDP is within 1 POINT of the PC's. They are in a position to win this election. 'Ford Nation'  is a small group of simpletons that cannot prop up Ford on their own.

Ford peaked way too early,it's all down hill from there. I  think the NDP is the natural alternative to the Liberals.

What about the Regional breakdown that shows Ford ahead in 3 our 5 regions?

Regions are not the same as ridings -- within those regions there are pockets of seats. It is individual seat strength distribution that matters. The polls cannot tell us this in that much detail.

Within this distribution there is significant variability -- if the Conservative vote is spread evenly they would get a lot more seats but if concentrated they may get less than expected. This is also true of the Liberal vote in reverse -- since the Liberal vote is weak if it is spread evenly they will get fewer seats than if it is more concentrated.

It is the riding by riding totals that are going to matter. Using the polling models to seats the poll that said the most likely result at those numbers was only 2 seats for the Liberals had a band of possibility of many more than that -- there were similar bands for the other parties. This was not based on different vote totals but the difference distribution of the same vote total could produce.

A huge difference would be found in how efficient the NDP-Liberal vote is against each other. If they run head to head too often then the Conservatives could beat them in many places, however, if they are consoidated soemwhat such that the Liberals lead where the NDP is weak and the NDP leads where the Liberals are weak, the Conservatives could be the ones to find themselves running second to NDP and Liberal Candidates where regionally theya re actually the leading party.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Bob Rae was strongly bilingual IIRC.

Talking out of both sides of your mouth is not quite the same as bilingual. 

Well yeah.  

NorthReport
NorthReport

Ontario voters, 83% of which want a change in government, know what they have to do to stop Ford. It is up to them.

Ontario Poll Tracker updated as NDP continues to make gains

PCs 39.4%

NDP 31%

Libs 23.2%

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I suspect there's always going to be a lag in the Ontario Poll Tracker's measure of actual ONDP support.  

NorthReport

Entering the long weekend, the PC lead evaporates as NDP momentum builds.

http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-...

Mighty Middle

Calculated Politics has an Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

NorthReport

Leger will be out with a poll soon but don’t necessarily buy it if it shows the NDP with less support than some of the other pollsters as Leger consistently shows the NDP with less support than almost all other pollsters. Funny dat!

Ciabatta2

The calculated politics one is the most realistic-looking seat projection by far this election.

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

I suspect there's always going to be a lag in the Ontario Poll Tracker's measure of actual ONDP support.  

CBC's Ontario Poll Tracker averages polls, so while it will tend to smooth out poll numbers from different polls, it will always lag behind changes in voting trends. 

 

gadar

Inspite of all the excitement around here about the poll numbers, it still looks like Premier Doug Ford when its all said and done. Or maybe the excitement is about the Ford victory, who knows.

A ranked ballot could've yielded a NDP government. 

NorthReport

Voters want another government, the NDP has the momentum, the election is only half over, and the most recent poll showed the NDP basically tied with the PCs for 1st place. What's not to like?

NorthReport

Liberals would prefer to lose to Ford rather than Horwath, and that is the Liberal strategy. Think about that! 

https://twitter.com/kinsellawarren/status/998584972704342016

NorthReport
NorthReport

NDP surges forward in new Ontario election poll; maybe Doug Ford won't become premier

 

Ford's PCs have the support of 35 percent of decided voters, compared to 34 percent for the NDP, which is led by Andrea Horwath.

That's a five percent gain for the NDP from Abacas Data's previous Ontario election poll.

The Liberals under Premier Kathleen Wynne have fallen five percentage points to 24 percent. The Greens are at five percent, which was no change from the previous poll.

According to Coletto, the PCs "have structural advantages within the electorate that make them the favourites still if these numbers hold to election day".

However, he also noted that the NDP can win and that it has the momentum.

https://www.straight.com/news/1078331/ndp-surges-forward-new-ontario-ele...

gadar

I dont want Doug Ford to be the premier.

And NDP is in the best position to beat the Cons. So go NDP.

I have been talking to friends and family in Ontario about voting strategically, and pretty much all of them are voting to stop Ford.

And if the NDP wins, we can cheer together. I am just not very optimistic about it.

Mighty Middle

NorthReport wrote:

Liberals would prefer to lose to Ford rather than Horwath, and that is the Liberal strategy. Think about that! 

https://twitter.com/kinsellawarren/status/998584972704342016

Warren Kinsella said EXILED Liberals would rather lose to Ford than Horwath. These are Blue Liberals who are not really part of the Wynne/Trudeau universe anymore, and thus align more with the Conservatives. As they have been pushed out & marginalized by Trudeau as well. Blue Liberals that opposed the Omar Khadr settlement and the Summer Jobs Attestation.

That being said it is not looking good for Wynne. Warren also had several criitques and blasts about how Trudeau handling his campaign as well in 2015. So consider the source (Kinsella)

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Kinsella's trying to get his 15 minutes of fame back again, and it doesn't seem to be working too well...

NorthReport

Who would the Liberals side with here?

NDP 55 seats

PCs 54 seats

Libs 15 seats

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/998576863353061377

NorthReport
NorthReport

Ontario NDP Gains On PCs 2 Weeks Before Election

Undecided voters appear to be moving to the NDP camp.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/05/21/ontario-election-ndp-pcs-abacus...

Sean in Ottawa

The Liberals would have no choice but to side with the NDP since they would be destroyed at the next election if they did not. For the Liberals the best outcome would be a PC majority where they did not have to take sides and could instead focus on a rebuild. Second best might be a NDP majority. Third would be the position of having to back the NDP.

For the NDP - things are a little complicated -- in the short term a majority is best but depending on how the economic situation goes it may not be a great long-term position. The NDP needs to govern successfuly so if they get the chance now they will have to hope for economics that are more favourable than the last time.

These latest polls are good for the Liberals as well. If the Liberals were to get 22% and the Conservatives had 40% then the Liberals could face a near wipe-out but if the Conservative vote declines to 35% due to NDP gains the Liberals will take seats they otherwise would not have. A split with the NDP and Conservatives tied could leave the Liberals with a seat count of perhaps 10-25 seats. If the Conservative vote is reduced by NDP gains to 35% then the Conservatives will fail to take seats from the Liberals they would have had with a 40% range.

35-35-24 as this Abacus poll suggests is not likely to deliver a majority.

josh
Pogo Pogo's picture

In 1990 the NDP won a landslide with 37%.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Holy Freakin' Crabcakes!  It could actually HAPPEN!

Misfit Misfit's picture

Yes it can

Sean in Ottawa

Pogo wrote:

In 1990 the NDP won a landslide with 37%.

Thesea re interesting numbers -- to compare to 1990 there was more of a gap to the second party and a lot of luck on the splits. In that election the Conservatives managed only 32% so were5 points back this is really quite significant. But there is time and the NDP could well cross 40% by e-day.

The NDP support is much more even in the province than it was in 1990. Back then the NDP had even more in the North and Southwest but less in other places. This more even support is likely to produce a different result than 1990 -- a little edge upwards and there could be a landslide. Some poor bouces and a much lower result.

The available support for the NDP right now is likely higher. This is in some respects very close to the 1990 result except a poorer distribution than at that time but more than two weeks out with momentum in the NDP's favour. I am confident that the NDP would not get 1990 numbers with 37% today but that the odds of increasing on the 37% very real.

In many respects the minimizing of NDP support in the media is helpful as it reduces the chance of an early peak. This could change in the coming week if polls show the NDP opening up some space over the PCs.

Of course there are risks but the NDP do look to be in a perfect position right now: not at a peak but in range.

Sean in Ottawa

Here is a seat projection with the NDP second done with the NDP 10 points behind the Conservatives

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

Seat breakdown is PC 62 NDP 38 Lib 24

If you close that gap the NDP gain 9 and Liberals lose 3 but gain 4 gain and you get a result that looks like this:

PC 52 NDP 47 Lib 25

More likely NDP minority.

If you have the NDP go over 40% and the PCs drop to 32 and Liberals to 22 then there are likely enough seats for a majority.

 

NorthReport

Global seat projection showing Doug Ford losing his seat to NDP

Mahamud Amin in Etobicoke North

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/998964341989879809

NorthReport

Global seat projections

PCs 64 seats

NDP 54 seats 

Libs 6 seats

NorthReport

Hopefully more Liberal supporters and also PC supporters who don’t like Ford will be supporting Andrea

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

josh

NDP needs to knock the Liberal vote down to 20% or below to win.

NorthReport

Leger will be out with a poll shortly which if past history is any indication it will show the NDP with less support as Leger always does

NorthReport

Leger will be out with a poll shortly which if past history is any indication it will show the NDP with less support as Leger always does

NorthReport
NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

josh wrote:

NDP needs to knock the Liberal vote down to 20% or below to win.

That is not at all clear. The Liberals are already down to where the NDP needs them to be. Below this and seats could go to the Conservatives from the Liberals as fast as the NDP.

The NDP need a net gain on the PCs by about 4-6 points now.

The greatest difference now for the NDP would be the Conservatives dropping slightly.

The kind of number change the NDP would need from the Liberals alone now is far too much to expect -- in order to make the gains to the NDP greater than the losses to the Conservativesa in many seats where the NDP is just too distant.

Sean in Ottawa

Please quote the text on these links or give commentary -- it is annoying to have to go to a link to see the subject of a post here.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Global seat projection showing Doug Ford losing his seat to NDP

Mahamud Amin in Etobicoke North

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/998964341989879809

This point is meaningless as it does not account for a leader in the seat or for the nature of the candidate. It is unlikely that this would happen and is only a result of applying more global changes.

The other point abut these projections is the expectation of uniform changes in support are fair when the changes are minor but not accurate when they are this extensive.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Whoever they are!

May 11-15 (a bit dated now)

PCs 38%

NDP 32%

Libs 23%

https://twitter.com/Dleebosh/status/999030846173655041

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