CAQ

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theleftyinvestor
CAQ

May as well have a thread specifically about the party.

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theleftyinvestor

An explanation of the CAQ logo.

theleftyinvestor

"les néo-démocrates mélangés" - mixed-up NDPers.

"les libéraux qui veulent se faire réélire" - Liberals who want to get themselves re-elected - Marlene Jennings?

"les 13 frères et sœurs à Céline" - LOL

flight from kamakura

that's pretty funny, actually

WyldRage

Luckily, it's been going down in the polls since they absorbed the ADQ. They now use the same language as that party, which will continue to draw down their appeal.

Brachina

Does that mean more of the soveriegnty vs. federalism eclisping everything else? I may not have liked the rightwing leaning tendancies but the promise of no more soveriegnty talk for now was, appealing. Maybe QS will evolve into a more automist positition and steal the CAQ's thunder.

theleftyinvestor

Who knows... the graphic came up on the blog of Jean-François Lisée, a journalist who is on the left-sovereigntist end of the spectrum. I saw him on Tout le monde en parle, and he was engaged in a very heated debate with another guy who was much harder right and not-so-sovereigntist (Eric Duhaime). The day of the broadcast, host Guy Lepage tweeted: "J'aime beaucoup ce débat gauche/droite plutôt que fed/souv". And I think a lot of viewers agreed, hey, shouldn't we be arguing about how we fundamentally want to run a society rather than only voting based on the national question?

Duhaime strikes me as a seriously charming smooth-talking conservative ideologue... there's a lot that man has the potential to get away with.

On the show, Lepage asked Lisée if he'd rather live in an independent Quebec with a right-wing government, or a Quebec that's part of Canada with a left-wing government. He answered the first option because they could always throw them out in the next election.

Anyway I started following Lisée on Twitter after that. Evidently I do not share his sovereigntist views, but it was nice to hear him debate and I figured it'd be very instructive to get a better handle on how the left is framed in Quebec.

Brachina

A potential alternative solution, an alliance between QS and a NDP like (but not nessasarily NDP) federalist leftwing party. QS could run in Soverngientists inclined ridings, while the NDP like party could run in federalist inclined ridings with a Nathan Cullen style solution on which party runs in which riding.

WyldRage

The bottom seems to have dropped off for the CAQ's support: 39% PQ, 30% PLQ and 19% CAQ in the new Forum research poll, seen in the Huffington Post Quebec.

http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/02/27/sondage-parti-quebecois-major...

Bärlüer

Nice. The Quebec region results are a bit surprising, though, with the CAQ ending up third there.

Bärlüer

The Forum poll actually included a bunch of other questions. It's a strange, mixed bag, shall we say...

On the Supreme Court's recent decision on the Ethics and Religious Culture course: 60% approve, 30% disapprove the Court's decision.

On Omnibus Crime Bill C-10: 56% approve, 32% disapprove (Eeeeesshh... Surprising and very disappointing. I must say the question was strangely worded, though. It asked: "Are you in favour of or opposed to the federal government's Omnibus Crime Bill C-10 which provides longer sentences for criminals [instead of "longer mandatory minimum sentences"] and expands prisons?" [what? although the Bill's effects undoubtedly mesh with the conservatives' plan to build more prisons, the bill itself does not "expand prisons"... anyway...])

On the tuition fees hike: 53% oppose, 41% favour (Yay!)

They also had a question on the political status of Quebec, but the combination and wording of the choices are so weird as to render the results mostly insignificant, IMO. (They offered: "Completely independent country", "Equal partner in a two country solution" [whatever that means... is that akin to Yvon Deschamps' quip about Quebecers wanting "Un Québec indépendant dans un Canada fort"...?], "Distinct nation within Canada" and "One province among others"). Still, if you add up the first two options, the results total 51%... So much for sovereignty having left the picture...

On the NDP leadership: 46% Mulcair, 5% Topp, others have insignificant support. When restricted only to current NDP Federal supporters, minus those who "don't know": 82% Mulcair, 9% Topp, 3% Nash.

On the Lib leadership: 23% for Trudeau, 22% for Rae; others have insignificant support.

Current Federal party preferences: 29% Bloc, 26% Lib, 22% NDP, 17% Cons, 4% Greens.

flight from kamakura

25% for a completely independent quebec is really the key result there

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture
Unionist

Yeah, they'd like to change it into Alberta. They will fail.

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Yeah, they don't seem to be getting much interest from the electorate so far as I can tell.

Brachina

No body appears to be doing well in Quebec, except for Mulcair :D

I had thought that the PQ had a majority in the bag, now she is down in support, with Charest leading almost by dumb luck, even though rabid dogs are more popular then he is in Quebec, in fact no provincial leader in Quebec is popular right now, I believe they are all under 20% approval rate.

Someday I'd like to meet the devil Jean Charest made a deal with, although I suspect Alison Redford has beat me to it ;p

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture
West Coast Greeny

May 2nd CROP poll (308 seat projection in brackets):

PLQ: 31% (59 seats) [Charest approval 32%, disapproval 67% - an 8 point improvement]
PQ: 25% (37 seats) [leading CAQ and PLQ 30-29-24 among Francophones]
CAQ: 24% (27 seats) [trailing PLQ in Quebec city 35-33, with PQ holding 24]
QS: 8% (2 seats) [10% in Montreal]
GRN: 8% (0 seats) [2% among francophones, 23% among non-francophones]
ON: 2% (0 seats) [Option Nationale is a new hardline sovereigntist party set up by MNA Jean-Marie Aussant]

Quote:
 Someday I'd like to meet the devil Jean Charest made a deal with, although I suspect Alison Redford has beat me to it ;p

Satan couldn't pull this off. Only Charest.

flight from kamakura

well see what happens in the argenteuil by-election.  whissell won this seat without issue for years, but the next representative could well be the caqiste laframboise, the former bq mp, recently ousted.  he has to be the odds on favorite to win in a region that is shaping up to the THE major battleground (basically, the suburbs and regions surronding the metropolis).  if charest can manage to hold his team steady and beat back this re-tread, it'd do quite a lot to stall caq poll momentum.

theleftyinvestor

From a purely selfish standpoint, if someone has to wrest votes/power away from Charest, I'd rather it be the CAQ than the PQ. Under the CAQ, the federal NDP would reasonably well be able to paint them with the same stripe as Harper when proposing a progressive voice. Under the PQ, the NDP's appeal to soft nationalists suddenly becomes incredibly risky. Each step that Marois takes towards a referendum would give Liberals and Conservatives fuel to burn down the NDP's rest-of-Canada support. Although if there is *anyone* who can walk that fine line, speaking to Quebec and the RoC as a federalist without alienating sovereigntist votes either... it's Mulcair.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I faintly recall that this question has been asked and answered before, probably several times, but my memory of this is gone. Will Mulcair and the NDP support QS in the next Quebec election? Please don't hurt me for asking. Sealed

theleftyinvestor

Unlikely, as QS is a definitively sovereigntist party and the NDP is federalist.

Mulcair has openly talked about the problems with parties in Quebec from a progressive federalist perspective, and also recognizes that federal support is not well-aligned with any provincial parties. He knows that if he knows what's good for him, he will stick to talking about issues and not support any provincial party wholeheartedly.

flight from kamakura

many individual ndp members (like me) will be very active for solidaire, but there's a 0% chance the ndp supports qs.

Unionist

flight from kamakura wrote:

many individual ndp members (like me) will be very active for solidaire, but there's a 0% chance the ndp supports qs.

Correct on both counts.

Too bad, in many ways. QS took a lot of crap from the hard independentist circles for telling people during the last federal election to defeat Harper by voting for either BQ or NDP. It would be nice if the NDP returned the favour. [NOTE: My definition of "hard independentist" is those who don't care how it comes and whether it's based on a progressive "projet de société" or not.]

It hasn't stopped, by the way:

[url=http://www.vigile.net/Quebec-Solidaire-devient]Québec Solidaire is gradually becoming the NPD in Québec[/url] [referring to all the support by QS for NDP candidates, accusing QS of abandoning sovereignty, etc.]

Here's the kind of stuff that really drove them nuts:

[url=http://www.hebdosregionaux.ca/saguenay-lac-st-jean/2011/04/27/amir-khadi... Khadir supports the NDP[/url]

Quote:
Arriving in Alma, MNA Amir Khadir called on Jonquière-Alma riding to massively support the candidacy of Claude Patry of the NDP.

"Every initiative to defeat the Conservatives is welcome. We call on the youth to participate in large numbers in the election and to vote for Claude Patry, the ideal candidate for this riding," said Amir Khadir. [...]

"I'm very pleased with this support. Young people didn't vote in the last election. But having Amir Khadir openly supporting me will get the vote out," said Claude Patry.

Patry, of course, went on to unseat incumbent Conservative cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn.

But the NDP returning that support to QS, in a province where the NDP has no wing of its own? That would require something which QS has and which the NDP doesn't currently have.

 

flight from kamakura

i mean, putting aside the fact that the ndp could never support an independist political formation in any official way, and the fact that the ndp's support cuts across provincial party lines AND the fact that solidaire is highly unlikely to score more than 2-3 seats (and i don't even know where that 3rd one might come from), there's the simple logistical fact that they're different parties.  i do really hope, though, that we see some of our more high profile mps out on the provincial hustings when it comes down to it - imagine ruth-ellen campaigning for you out in maskinongé or boulerice in the petite patrie or turmel door-knocking in old hull, that's some star power that solidaire could definitely use!

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Thanks for the replies. It appears to be the case - and please correct me if I am wrong - that Quebec is doomed to being governed by either the Quebec Liberal party or the PQ. Frown

theleftyinvestor

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/massive-ndp-leads-in-quebec...

Another fascinating breakdown by Forum shows how the federal and provincial voting intentions of Quebecers are mixed. Jean Charest's Liberals get 40% of their support from the federal Liberals, 30% from the Conservatives, and 27% from the New Democrats. The PQ draws 47% of its support from the Bloc and 38% from the NDP, while the Coalition Avenir Québec gets 58% of its support from the NDP, 22% from the Conservatives, and 10% from the Bloc. Federal and provincial politics in Quebec have no relation to one another, at least in terms of political support.

Getting back to the topic of CAQ, anyone want to guess why the provincial party with the highest fraction of NDP supporters is the CAQ?

That doesn't necessarily mean that NDP supporters would vote overwhelmingly for CAQ though. With the polls breaking down to about 29.5% PLQ, 28% PQ and 24% CAQ... Out of 100 random Quebec voters, you would find 29.5*.27 = 8 PLQ-NDP voters, 28*.38= 10.6 PQ-NDP voters, 24*.58 = 14 CAQ-NDP voters, and 7 NDP voters who did not choose any of the above (whether QS or undecided) adding up to the federal poll results of 39.6%. That comes to about 35% of Quebec NDP voters being CAQistes. Is it something about longing to beak free of traditional parties and try something new no matter where on the spectrum?

I think that, for now, Quebec is indeed doomed to being governed by PLQ or PQ - possibly with the CAQ holding the balance of power which doesn't necessarily help. But imagine if, another election cycle down the road, a leftist force were to emerge that is "CAQish" in its approach to sovereignty. How much might that eat into the rest of the parties?