Implications of 2012 Quebec election for new provincial NDP party

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jerrym
Implications of 2012 Quebec election for new provincial NDP party

How does the Quebec election results affect the likelihood of Mulcair's provincial NDP party being successful in the next election? While I recognize that a week in politics is an eternity and, in the case of Quebec, one day is an eternity (witness the last federal election), perhaps some of you who are a lot more knowledgable about Quebec might hazard an educated guess on the effects of tonight's vote on the NDP provincially? As an outsider, the divided scene provincially suggests that a provincial NDP has the potential to do very well by attracting anglo federalists who are left-wing or simply fed up with Liberal corruption, as well as the potential of attracting soft nationalists with the appropriate platform and an attractive leader. The multiplicity of parties suggests to me that a large number of seats could be won with a relatively low percentage of the vote compared to federal or other provincial elections. However, my hypothesis is based of a rather limited understanding of Quebec. 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

You're not really interested in a serious discussion of the question.  You've just started this thread to gloat over the PQ's poor showing AND QS's failure to advance further in the seat count, and to use those two events to start a hard-sell push for the establishment of a QNPD.

Just admit what your agenda is.  Also, I'd suggest having the decency to wait a day or two, because your OP looks like passive-aggressive grave-dancing.  That, and by doing this tonight, you'll probably just piss off most of the people you'd like to persuade.

TheNewTeddy

The winning PQ won 1.3 million votes while the NDP, in Quebec in 2011, won 1.6

As for starting an QNPD, Mulcair has already said he plans to. I don't see the OP as being in any way passive-aggressive, or aggressive, though I admit I don't know the watercooler politics around these parts. 

autoworker autoworker's picture

I think the implication is whether those 1.6 million Quebecers who voted NDP/NPD, expect Mulcair to promote Quebec's interests by backing Marois's demands, vis-a-vis Harper. I don't see how Mulcair can square that, without losing support outside Quebec.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

My first impression is that the Liberals aren't dead yet, so putting a new NDP in place in Quebec may be more difficult than originally thought. I suspect the NDP were hoping for an extremely poor showing by the Liberals last night, but they're only four seats behind the PQ.

Brachina

Mulcair is his own man and if Marios thinks he's her attack dog then she has another thing coming to her. The NDP is not the bloc, much to the confusion of the federalist Liberals. Mulcair knows how to handle Marios' nuetred offensive against federalism, he'll pick and choose what he supports and does not support. Marios does not have a mandate to pick fights. Don't forget Mulcair is way more popular and respected then Marios is in Quebec.

Marios is a temp premier at best. She had every advantage, corrupt oppentant, her other oppentant was Legault, the backing of angery students and the best she could do was a minority and a virtual tie in popular vote ( she had a .7 percent margin of victory in popular vote).

Though that idiot with a gun may gain her sympathy.

Still the ground is ripe for the QNDP.

The biggest question is who should lead it and I have a suggestion.

Sadia Groguhe, the NDP's deputy house leader and word has it a very politically talented and ambitious woman.

Plus as a muslim woman and an immigrant it would really give immigrants in Quebec someone who could speak to thier challenges.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

The only way a new Quebec NDP could take off here is if the Liberals were reduced to a rump last night. Didn't happen - the Liberals are only four seats behind the PQ. The NDP probably don't have a chance in the near term of going anywhere in Quebec provincial politics with the Liberals at fifty seats - and they achieved fifty seats despite their unpopularity and with the corruption probe ahead.

My advice to Mulcair and others is to concentrate on the 2015 federal election and stay out of Quebec provincial politics for now.

Brachina

Mulcair has already made the decision and I don't see how the Liberals 50 seats effects things, its not a sign of popularity, its simply a rejection of seperatism. 31 percent is not a vote of confidence, even if they,were expected to do worse. Quebecers hate all of the above right now, a perfect opportunity for the NDP.

Anyways Boom Boom, what do you think of Sadia as a potiential leader?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

What decision has been made???  I'm not aware any decision has been made to go ahead with a Quebec NDP.

ETA: There's a post in the other thread that suggests Mulcair is re-thinking all this.

ETA: If the NDP go ahead with this idea - without consulting their Quebec (federal) membership, that's going to piss off a lot of people.

JeffWells

With such a weak minority there's a good chance of another Quebec election before the next federal election. Could the NDP have a credible provincial party in place for that? No. Should that be how it invests its time and political capital in Quebec? Absolutely not.

If Mulcair wants to stick with relaunching a provincial party, he should revise his target date to after the next federal election. Better yet would be scrapping it altogether.

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I'm still flabbergasted at how the Liberals managed to get 50 seats. Sometime this week I'm going to look at the electoral map and see where those 50 Liberal seats are. I think the PQ candidate here won easily last night.

Unionist

TheNewTeddy wrote:

As for starting an QNPD, Mulcair has already said he plans to.

All on his lonesome, eh?

Could you kindly refer me to the decision of the NDP to do so - any level of the NDP containing more than one person will do, thanks.

Mulcair is my MP - I voted for him three times in a row - and I don't recall him promising to interfere in Québec politics as part of his campaign pitch.

ETA: What Boom Boom said.

I have a real problem with progressive people who worship "leaders".

Brachina wrote:
... Mulcair has already made the decision ...

There goes another one! Very sad.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I think the NDP will have their hands full trying to win in 2015 - setting up a Quebec NDP will simply drain energy and money from that more important goal of getting rid of Harper.

Strangely, I haven't had as much as one email from the NDP asking me my thoughts on setting up a provincial branch of the NDP here in Quebec.

Unionist

Brachina wrote:
Mulcair is his own man ...

Um, he's my MP, and he's answerable to me. He's also "leader" of the NDP, and answerable to them. As for Québec politics, he is best advised to keep his nose out, or he may lose any lingering respect he may have earned.

Quote:
The biggest question is who should lead it and I have a suggestion. Sadia Groguhe, the NDP's deputy house leader and word has it a very politically talented and ambitious woman. Plus as a muslim woman and an immigrant it would really give immigrants in Quebec someone who could speak to thier challenges.

Thanks for your suggestion. Personally, I think we need a Jew from North Africa in charge.

Do you do much stand-up comedy?

 

Brachina

That cheap Unionist, she has excellent qualifications, history of political activism, a masters degree in pyscology, she run for office before and she's in a leadership position in Cacus as deputy house leader, and yes she North African which gives her a unique perpective that I think would be valueable but hey if that screams tokenism to you Unionist that's about you Unionist, not her.

Quebec deserves better then the rotten choices it has now, sorry if that inferes with QS's dreams of winning a third seat next time, but happen to think a Liberal/CAQ/PQ threesome government will be bad for Quebecers in the long term.

And I do recognize that forming an NDP Quebec wing is a long term project and probably not be contesting the next election which will probably come too soon, but the one after that is another story.

I'll wait till I hear the idea is dead from Mulcair, not some twitter rumour.

lagatta

There has been no vote in any democratic decision-making body in the NDP on fielding an NDP slate in Québec, according to my MP, Alexandre Boulerice, who says it is up to the party membership. He personally thinks the NDP has its hands full with endless fighting back against Harper's "death by a thousand cuts", large and small.

Hmm, Amir Khadir is an immigrant (though he came at the age of ten: his family were leftist opponents of both the Shah and the mullahs. Of Muslim background, but secular. Unless we are making religious belief and practice some kind of requirement?

Unionist, the comedian and actor Gad Elmaleh? He actually holds Canadian citizenship as well as Moroccan and French. Though I doubt he has any interest in such a run, except for mining its comedic potential.

Unionist

Perfect! I'm backing Gad for the job. As long as he keeps kosher and can do great one-liners.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

It seems from afar that the PQ's victory might be short lived. If the Liberals and CAQ can strike a deal on either a coalition or some other arrangement they clearly have the seats to govern as a majority for as long as they can hold it together.  Tell me Unionist, et al from Quebec, is that a real possibility or will they just bide their time and defeat the government when they think they have the advantage.

WyldRage

Luckily, it seems the CAQ is willing to play with the PQ for a while. It seems supporting the liberals, after using their corruption as basis for their campaign, doesn't seem to be a vote winner.

Unionist

kropotkin1951 wrote:

If the Liberals and CAQ can strike a deal on either a coalition or some other arrangement they clearly have the seats to govern as a majority for as long as they can hold it together.  Tell me Unionist, et al from Quebec, is that a real possibility or will they just bide their time and defeat the government when they think they have the advantage.

I can't see anyone doing a coalition or an accord or whatever with the Liberals. More likely are partial one-at-a-time deals between CAQ and PQ. I hope this doesn't come as too much of a shock to those babblers who call CAQ "federalist" and PQ "separatist".

6079_Smith_W

I thought CAQ planted themselves squarely on the fence on that one.

(though I guess for some "don't rock the boat=federalism")

TheNewTeddy

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/ndp-will-run-quebec-party-in-next-provincial-election-mulcair/article4486345/

 

He can change his mind, or, be unable to do this, but to suggest that it is insane to think there will be a provincial NDP is just silly.

Brachina

I think the time scale is a problem, it'll take time to put together, time which the NDP doesn't have with such an unstable minority which could fall at any time.

Still Mulcair says the desire for a Quebec NDP is strong, so as I said its just a matter of time, not if.

David Young

Let's wait and see what comes from the corruption inquiry.

Should the same results happen to the provincial Liberals as happened to the federal Liberals after the Gomery Inquiry, pro-federalist Quebecers could start looking for a new federalist option.

 

Wilf Day

As I posted August 23:

Wilf Day wrote:

Mulcair and Evan Soloman last night on Power and Politics (CBC): "the possibility."

Soloman:

Quote:
Did you ever speak with Jack Layton about this idea that you mentioned last week about starting a provincial wing of the NDP in Quebec?

Mulcair

Quote:
Yes. . . Our number one goal is being ready for 2015 for the federal election facing the Conservatives. But if we do wind up with a normal four-year cycle, we've already reserved the name, we're going to look very seriously at the possibility of constituting a provincial wing. Now, it's very important that we not take our eye off the ball, because we're not going to start dividing our forces or starting a second front. We're going to stick with the priority. . . .

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Politics/Power+%26+Politics/ID/2271475975/

". . . if we do wind up with a normal four-year cycle" which didn't happen. So it's off the table.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The notion of a Quebec NPD should be tabled until either after 2015 OR after the election of a majority government in the National Assembly.

In the next National Assembly, where the defeat of the government and a snap election will be perpetual possibilities, it's entirely possible that the attempt to create a Quebec NPD would have no other effect than to Khadir and David knocked out of their seats, with no compensatory growth of the QNPD at all.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

P&P tonight spoke to someone at the NDP caucus who said the provincial NDP in Quebec is off for now because of the minority government situation - the NDP doesn't have anything ready if there's another election so soon after yesterday's. And I think that person said there will be consultation with the membership before proceeding.

Brachina

David Young wrote:

Let's wait and see what comes from the corruption inquiry.

Should the same results happen to the provincial Liberals as happened to the federal Liberals after the Gomery Inquiry, pro-federalist Quebecers could start looking for a new federalist option.

 

True, in fact its a safe bet it will, but that doesn't change the fact that your can't create party in two years or less, even with Federal NDP help. Look I'm super disappointed too, but if the NDP does this, it has to be done right, we only get one shot at it.

For now tell any Quebecer you know if thier interested in a provincial NDP to put thier money and effort into building the inforstructure and machine of the Federal NDP, because that's what going to be used as startup inforstructure for a future party and the sooner that's solid, the sooner the NDP ca focus on other projects.

Still won't be likely before 2016.

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

You're not really interested in a serious discussion of the question.  You've just started this thread to gloat over the PQ's poor showing AND QS's failure to advance further in the seat count, and to use those two events to start a hard-sell push for the establishment of a QNPD.

Just admit what your agenda is.  Also, I'd suggest having the decency to wait a day or two, because your OP looks like passive-aggressive grave-dancing.  That, and by doing this tonight, you'll probably just piss off most of the people you'd like to persuade.

You have the arrogance to assume you know my mind better than myself. If you have questions about what someone thinks why not question them about their beliefs rather than acting like a pontiff proclaiming that such and such is what other people think. I have seen you take this approach with other people before on this site. My question was based on a potential opportunity for the success of a provincial NDP party but it was not predicated on the fact that this means the death of the PQ. It was asked as a question because I am not unaware that a provincial party could fail and/or create problems for the federal NDP, but I acknowledged that I have limited knowledge of Quebec. I proposed a possible scenario to provoke debate and get information from people who are more knowledgable about Quebec than me.

As to your alleging that I am trying to dance on the grave of the PQ, I personally do not see the PQ dying, even if they were to suffer a horrendous defeat similar to that of the Bloc last year (unlikely) at the hands of the NDP or any other party. Being of Irish descent, I am well aware of the many times that Irish independence movements failed again and again, often in dismal fashion, and were then counted as dead. Yet after centuries of English rule the Irish achieved independence when conditions were appropriate. I also am aware of Trudeau's declaration that the separtists were dead in the 1970s. Therefore, even in the unlikely scenario of a provincial NDP and/or other federalists parties winning numerous convincing elections in a row, there will be an ongoing independentist base trying to and possibly achieving independence in the near or distant future. My question was simply about how a NDP provincial party might do if it were created and ran in the next election.

I also do not believe it is your job to decide at what point people can or cannot discuss an issue.

 

bouchecl

dupe

bouchecl

Brachina wrote:
Mulcair is his own man and if Marios thinks he's her attack dog then she has another thing coming to her. The NDP is not the bloc, much to the confusion of the federalist Liberals. Mulcair knows how to handle Marios' nuetred offensive against federalism, he'll pick and choose what he supports and does not support. Marios does not have a mandate to pick fights. Don't forget Mulcair is way more popular and respected then Marios is in Quebec. Marios is a temp premier at best. She had every advantage, corrupt oppentant, her other oppentant was Legault, the backing of angery students and the best she could do was a minority and a virtual tie in popular vote ( she had a .7 percent margin of victory in popular vote). Though that idiot with a gun may gain her sympathy. Still the ground is ripe for the QNDP. The biggest question is who should lead it and I have a suggestion. Sadia Groguhe, the NDP's deputy house leader and word has it a very politically talented and ambitious woman. Plus as a muslim woman and an immigrant it would really give immigrants in Quebec someone who could speak to thier challenges.

I think Brachina underestimates Ms Marois political savyy. She might be a Premier leading a minority government, but she is tough as nails (I think she has proven that last night). Mulcair won't have much choice other than support her demands since she plans to base them on a large number of unanswered unanimous motions of the National Assembly, some of them voted by Mulcair during his term there. If the NDP leader is not seen as a staunch defender of Quebec interests in Ottawa with 59 MPs we'll pick another slate of candidates in 2015. Why? In a Quebec-Canada fight, Quebecers usually get behind their Premier against Ottawa.

By the way, who is this Sadia Groguhe? Honestly, I have never heard of her before reading this thread (had to check her bio on Wikipedia).

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

jerrym wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

You're not really interested in a serious discussion of the question.  You've just started this thread to gloat over the PQ's poor showing AND QS's failure to advance further in the seat count, and to use those two events to start a hard-sell push for the establishment of a QNPD.

Just admit what your agenda is.  Also, I'd suggest having the decency to wait a day or two, because your OP looks like passive-aggressive grave-dancing.  That, and by doing this tonight, you'll probably just piss off most of the people you'd like to persuade.

You have the arrogance to assume you know my mind better than myself. If you have questions about what someone thinks why not question them about their beliefs rather than acting like a pontiff proclaiming that such and such is what other people think. I have seen you take this approach with other people before on this site. My question was based on a potential opportunity for the success of a provincial NDP party but it was not predicated on the fact that this means the death of the PQ. It was asked as a question because I am not unaware that a provincial party could fail and/or create problems for the federal NDP, but I acknowledged that I have limited knowledge of Quebec. I proposed a possible scenario to provoke debate and get information from people who are more knowledgable about Quebec than me.

As to your alleging that I am trying to dance on the grave of the PQ, I personally do not see the PQ dying, even if they were to suffer a horrendous defeat similar to that of the Bloc last year (unlikely) at the hands of the NDP or any other party. Being of Irish descent, I am well aware of the many times that Irish independence movements failed again and again, often in dismal fashion, and were then counted as dead. Yet after centuries of English rule the Irish achieved independence when conditions were appropriate. I also am aware of Trudeau's declaration that the separtists were dead in the 1970s. Therefore, even in the unlikely scenario of a provincial NDP and/or other federalists parties winning numerous convincing elections in a row, there will be an ongoing independentist base trying to and possibly achieving independence in the near or distant future. My question was simply about how a NDP provincial party might do if it were created and ran in the next election.

I also do not believe it is your job to decide at what point people can or cannot discuss an issue.

 

In terms of "grave-dancing", I was actually referring more to the QS showing-I'm not a PQ supporter. 

And it isn't my job to decide anything here...but I do have the right to express my opinion.  And your response seems to confirm that your intention here was to push for the creation of a Quebec NPD...and to do so immediately.  You can do that, but you can also expect a large degree of negative response to the notion if you start such a push as quickly as you did.  

socialdemocrati...

With minority governments being fragile, I'm not sure there's much time to organize a new party. But the CAQ appeared pretty suddenly, with very little time to organize, and you could hardly consider this election a failure for them.

Does the election result signal an opportunity for a new provincial party?

The polls showed huge numbers of undecideds until the last minute, and a lot of low enthusiasm "hold my nose" votes. I can't remember the last time I saw that much voter movement in multiple directions. (The Liberals were leading, then the CAQ was formed with a huge lead, then a huge surge for the PQ, and then a back-and-forth between the PLQ and the PQ.) If we can't safely conclude that "none of the above" would have been a popular option, I'm not sure what other evidence you'd be holding out for.

Another way to look at it... This is a crude shorthand, but there are three leftward sovereigntists parties (PQ, QS, ON) with seats, and two rightward federalist parties (PLQ, CAQ) with seats.

There's plenty of space for a new leftward federalist party. At least in theory.

To state the obvious, a provincial NDP would need (1) Liberal voters who hate Charest's policies but hate separatists even more, and (2) voters who picked QS/PQ to do better for Quebec than the Liberals, but think the whole national question is getting pretty pointless and stupid.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If a Quebec NPD were to be formed, it would have to find a way to communicate with left-federalist voters WITHOUT expressing contempt or hostility towards separatists.  It would need to acknowledge the reality of the grievances that drive sovereigntists, and see the sovereignty movement as something to, in some way, engage...not as something to crush.

A Quebec NPD that takes an "well, I hope you've learned your lesson" tone towards sovereigntists and their cause can never hope to form a government in Quebec.  It's fine to disagree with sovereigntism, but it's political suicide for any possible future Quebec NPD to openly disrespect or condemn it.

It needs to find a way to take, essentially, an agnostic, non-sectarian position on the national question...because if such a party were to present itself as something like a Quebec version of Ulster Unionism(which is, at this point, what federalism still sounds like to the majority of Quebec francophones)it will never be able to move out of minor party status, and the PLQ or something that were to replace the PLQ in its current place on the spectrum would always be able to neutralize such a party by shouting "rally 'round the Leaf' to those who self-identify as federalists.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

dupe post. self-delete.

 

jerrym

David Young wrote:

Let's wait and see what comes from the corruption inquiry.

Should the same results happen to the provincial Liberals as happened to the federal Liberals after the Gomery Inquiry, pro-federalist Quebecers could start looking for a new federalist option.

 

I would agree with David that the party should wait at least until the inquiry outcome. One of the reasons I raised the question is it seemed to me in news broadcasts about the provincial Liberals level of corruption the tone of the broadcasters suggested (in careful wording to avoid libel suits) that the level of corruption of the provincial Liberals may make the federal Liberals' level of corruption that started their downfall look like chickenfeed in terms of the amount of cash involved. Is this how it seems to people in Quebec? Tonight's CBC broadcast said that even if Charest had wanted to stay on as leader, the inquiry would more than likely have destroyed him politically. Since there is now a PQ government, it has every incentive to make sure the inquiry is as thorough as possible and is not canceled as Chretien did with several inquiries that he called when in trouble and then terminated when the outcry died down. If the provincial Liberals are totally discredited in the inquiry, which could well be before the next election, I believe there should be a federalist option that is credible. It is one thing if an independentist party (PQ or QS or other) wins independence against a credible federalist option, another thing if it wins because there is no such option. To me CAQ is right-wing and seems like a ? on independence at some point. Does this seem like a scenario that might occur, thereby leaving the NDP with a dilemma - enter the provincial scene both because of the opportunity that exists and to provide a federalist option, or not enter because we might not be sufficiently prepared for an election and because we might split the vote in an unfortunate manner with other federalist and/or left-wing parties like QS, thereby harming federalist and/or left-wing possibilites of success?

 

Ken Burch wrote: In terms of "grave-dancing", I was actually referring more to the QS showing-I'm not a PQ supporter. 

 

By doubling its seats, even though it resulted in only two seats, I thought the QS showed further potential for growth, which is something that is hard for small parties to do in a FPTP system, so that is why I never considered your statement about death as potentially being about QS. Regardless of whether the independentists take a right-, centre-, or left-wing form, I do not see them dying out, although this does not necessarily guarantee them victory soon or at some point much later. The PQ seems stalled in ideas and appeal to me, winning a minority government more because of the weakness of the main opposition parties that it faced than because of itself. However, I think it could rejuvenate the strong sense of vitality it once had (whether you agree with its approach or not).

socialdemocrati...

Ken Burch wrote:
It needs to find a way to take, essentially, an agnostic, non-sectarian position on the national question...

As far as I can tell, the Federal NDP has taken the following strategy on the national question.

  • The grievances of many sovereigntists can be resolved within a united Canada.
  • The NDP can win over BQ supporters with a more social democratic Canada.
  • The NDP can win over BQ supporters by protecting the French language and culture.

This position is something less than the belligerent Federalism favored by the Liberals, but still more Federalist than complete agnosticism.

... and as far as I can tell, that positioning has worked well with the Quebec electorate.

The alternative explanation for the federal NDP's success in Quebec, one favored by the Liberals, is that those BQ supporters saw an opportunity to move the goal posts for a referendum back to 50%+1, and they hardly care about anything else that the NDP is promisng.

The only way to really find out would be to create a provincial NDP. I'm not sure agnosticism would be required, or even desireable.

autoworker autoworker's picture

The PQ is not immune to corruption. We'll see if anything sticks to Marois, and her backers. Legault may have some insight on that matter. It's quite the can of worms, it seems.

ReeferMadness

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/09/06/pol-cp-ndp-caucus-sherbrooke-quebec-clarity.html

 

I see that Mulcair is a natural NDP-er.  He apparently doesn't mind gambling with Canada's future as long as he gets a few Quebec votes out of the bargain.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

autoworker wrote:
The PQ is not immune to corruption.

Did anybody ever say it WAS?

socialdemocrati...

ReeferMadness wrote:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/09/06/pol-cp-ndp-caucus-sherbrooke-quebec-clarity.html

 

I see that Mulcair is a natural NDP-er.  He apparently doesn't mind gambling with Canada's future as long as he gets a few Quebec votes out of the bargain.

And you sound like a natural Liberal. If there's the potential for the voters to do something you don't like, instead of listening to their concerns, you find every trick in the book to suppress their vote.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

bouchecl wrote:

If the NDP leader is not seen as a staunch defender of Quebec interests in Ottawa with 59 MPs we'll pick another slate of candidates in 2015. Why? In a Quebec-Canada fight, Quebecers usually get behind their Premier against Ottawa.

It seems to me that this is the normal dynamics of politics in Canada. The people of BC always believe that Ottawa is screwing them and don't forget that the Reform was born as an anti-Ottawa party to tap into that same sentiment on the prairies. It seems to be part of a winning strategy for most Nfld. Premiers as well.

In BC the federal NDP was almost decimated for picking the wrong side in the Accord Referendum debate.  The people of BC and the people of Quebec both voted it down. BC though had the highest NO vote in the country and the party lost seats to the Reform and its racist candidates because they supported the Yes side and it lost 68 to 32.  They went from 19 seats to 2. 

However that was in the same time period that the provincial party won their two majority governments. The NDP in BC has two quite distinct parties. The feds and the provincial office are always fighting turf wars and the idea that the federal party would be starting a provincial party seems like a very top down view of how to create a party.  I think Mulcair and his people should go about their business of being OO and if there are people in Quebec who want to begin the process of building a provincial wing they they should do it.  Seems to me that any provincial party that starts needs to be independent of the federal wing and not be some kind of branch plant of the Ottawa based Quebec federal caucus.

Unionist

kropotkin1951 wrote:
I think Mulcair and his people should go about their business of being OO and if there are people in Quebec who want to begin the process of building a provincial wing they they should do it. 

Sounds right to me.

Policywonk

Brachina wrote:

David Young wrote:

Let's wait and see what comes from the corruption inquiry.

Should the same results happen to the provincial Liberals as happened to the federal Liberals after the Gomery Inquiry, pro-federalist Quebecers could start looking for a new federalist option.

True, in fact its a safe bet it will, but that doesn't change the fact that your can't create party in two years or less, even with Federal NDP help. Look I'm super disappointed too, but if the NDP does this, it has to be done right, we only get one shot at it. For now tell any Quebecer you know if thier interested in a provincial NDP to put thier money and effort into building the inforstructure and machine of the Federal NDP, because that's what going to be used as startup inforstructure for a future party and the sooner that's solid, the sooner the NDP ca focus on other projects. Still won't be likely before 2016.

I was going to make that point. Note that in all provinces and territories (Yukon), where there is a provincial/territorial NDP, there is quite a lot of organizational overlap between the provincial and federal wings (at least in terms of it being largely the same people). While I agree that building the federal NDP organization in Quebec whould take priority, that will make it easier to create a provincial NDP organization whenever that happens, as we will be recruiting and training activists and potential candidates. I'm not going to speculate on what happens if the Marois government lasts longer than we expect, what will happen in the next Quebec election, or if we are in an minority situation after the 2015 election federally.

 

Brachina

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2012/09/call-to-quebeckers.html?m=1

The one comment listing potential Quebec Liberal Leaders was all Federal Liberals and it hit me, what if the next Quebec Liberal Leader is a card carrying New Democrat? We know that the Quebec Liberals draw membership from all the federalists parties so its not impossible.

What would this do to the NDP to the eventual possiblity of forming a Quebec NDP?

As for the idea of Trudeau running to be premier of Quebec instead of Liberal leader, it would be an easier path to power then the Prime Minstership.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Hard to see that happening, though.  The PLQ is, at least in its upper ranks, far too much a party of the ultra-wealthy and the corporate mega-elite to let someone with notions of creating a second "Quiet Revolution" take over as leader-especially since, after all the problems Charest had, the PLQ ended up just slightly behind in the seat count AND essentially in a dead heat in the popular vote.  I suspect their attitude will be "in a couple of years, the voters will realize their mistake and return power to we who are entitled to rule, so why should we change at all?".

That, and they may also figure that any leftward move at all will throw votes from them to the "caquistes"(btw, am I a bad person for enjoying that word more since lagatta pointed out what it actually means?).

Brachina
Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Interesting article.

Quote:

"An eventual return of the NDP to Quebec politics will further accentuate this increased prominence of left-vs-right issues. Some are pessimistic about the NDP's ability to be a contender provincially, thinking it won't manage much more than chipping away federalist support from Québec Solidaire. But the party's growth potential is in fact much greater.

Since Tom Mulcair's election as leader, the NDP has been consistently polling at around 40 per cent in surveys of federal voting intentions in Quebec. This means the NDP would enter the provincial scene with an established and popular brand. Furthermore, it has an ability to steal support from all of the existing Quebec political parties. It could easily replace the PLQ as the default option for committed federalists who are turned off by the CAQ's lukewarm commitment to Canada. It could pick up support from voters who currently vote PQ because it's the most progressive party with a chance of forming government. The CAQ meanwhile, would have to contend with a new party capable of garnering support from voters looking for change."

lagatta

Thanks to Boom Boom for finding this thread, I'm reposting this here (from the Sherbrooke Declaration thread) with slight changes:

As I wrote elsewhere, the NDP Québec delegation has stepped back on the idea thrown about of launching a Québec wing of the party.
That is a relief; the last thing we need here is more division and infighting on the left.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2012/11/03/montreal-ndp-par...

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/363129/npd-section-quebec-l-eta...

La Presse - long URL as usual: http://tinyurl.com/LeNPDrecule

The CBC story headlines "division", in La Presse, the "recul" on the idea of floating a Québec wing was the central point. In practice, I know several people who have worked for both NDP and QS campaigns. Some are federalist, some indépendantiste, most are more interested in social issues.

Unionist

Very good. Mulcair's trial balloon got popped. What was worst was launching it in the middle of a campaign where many NDP voters were working for QS (and for the PQ for that matter). I guess if Tom doesn't make prime minister, he wouldn't have minded a fallback as premier.

 

lagatta

And conversely, more than a few QS activists worked for the NDP campaign, and several of these I know had a lot of campaign experience, whether electoral or in social movements.

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