NDP's Quebec strategy getting noticed in the media II

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MegB
NDP's Quebec strategy getting noticed in the media II

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Issues Pages: 
MegB

Continued from here.

Unionist

From [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ndps-quebec-strategy-getting-n...

Anonymouse wrote:
Unionist lives in Mulcair's riding. What does the NDP need to do to win your vote? Walk on water? Have Layton die and ressurect himself and continue fighting Harper in the Conservative heartlands of the West?

I don't understand. You want me to vote for him twice? You're new around here, aren't you?

 

NorthReport

Painful thought, eh Unionist! Wink

Although perhaps Anonymouse was reflecting on Frank Hanley, a former Montreal City Councillor from Point St Charles, who at election time who would gather his supporters together before the vote and instruct them to go out and vote, and to vote often.

Anonymouse

Unionist wrote:

From [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ndps-quebec-strategy-getting-n...

Anonymouse wrote:
Unionist lives in Mulcair's riding. What does the NDP need to do to win your vote? Walk on water? Have Layton die and ressurect himself and continue fighting Harper in the Conservative heartlands of the West?

I don't understand. You want me to vote for him twice? You're new around here, aren't you?

 

Embarassed

Unionist

Sorry, Anonymouse, didn't mean to be snarky, but I voted and campaigned for Mulcair both times he ran (2007 byelection and 2008 general election), had a falling out when he failed to answer my plea to get the NDP out of the CPCCA and then launched an over-the-top attack on Libby Davies last summer - but we've kissed and made up. As for Layton walking on water, the spring thaw is coming very soon around here, so he'll have to hurry.

 

Anonymouse

Mulcair thinks NPD could elect 6-12 MPs in Quebec

At the beginning of the campaign he said six. Article's title roughly reads "Mulcair predicts more than 10 NPD MPs," although I don't see where he "predicts" this.

Also, I was wrong...there doesn't seem to be anything about Layton going to Quebec City, just spending today in Montreal. Afterwards I believe he is headed to Nfld.

Anonymouse

NPD has a new French ad

Layton is spending Thursday and Friday in Montreal, then Nfld & PEI and will be in Val d'Or, QC on Monday. Layton has also seen a major bump in media coverage in QC since the French debate. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jack in either the Saguenay or Capital region before the campaign closes out.

adma

This *may* be reminding me of the Harper Conservatives coming out of nowhere in Quebec in 2006...

David Young

When Quebec voters change their voting habits, it usually happens in huge waves...

1958 - 50 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 9 in 1957

1962 - 26 Social Credit M.P.s elected after none in 1958

1984 - 58 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 1 in 1980

1993 - 54 Bloc Quebecois M.P.s in their first election.

Has the time come for another seismic shift in the Quebec electorate?

 

Anonymouse

David Young wrote:

When Quebec voters change their voting habits, it usually happens in huge waves...

1958 - 50 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 9 in 1957

1962 - 26 Social Credit M.P.s elected after none in 1958

1984 - 58 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 1 in 1980

1993 - 54 Bloc Quebecois M.P.s in their first election.

Has the time come for another seismic shift in the Quebec electorate?

 

The best poll for the NDP so far had them at a 10% gap with the BQ (ARS: BQ 34%, NDP 24%). I don't think things get interesting for the NDP until any gap with the BQ narrows much more than that, given how evenly spread out the NPD vote is.

bekayne

Anonymouse wrote:

David Young wrote:

When Quebec voters change their voting habits, it usually happens in huge waves...

1958 - 50 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 9 in 1957

1962 - 26 Social Credit M.P.s elected after none in 1958

1984 - 58 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 1 in 1980

1993 - 54 Bloc Quebecois M.P.s in their first election.

Has the time come for another seismic shift in the Quebec electorate?

 

The best poll for the NDP so far had them at a 10% gap with the BQ (ARS: BQ 34%, NDP 24%). I don't think things get interesting for the NDP until any gap with the BQ narrows much more than that, given how evenly spread out the NPD vote is.

The one for Forum Research had the BQ at 27%, both the NDP & Liberals were tied 4% back at 23%

Anonymouse

bekayne wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

David Young wrote:

When Quebec voters change their voting habits, it usually happens in huge waves...

1958 - 50 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 9 in 1957

1962 - 26 Social Credit M.P.s elected after none in 1958

1984 - 58 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 1 in 1980

1993 - 54 Bloc Quebecois M.P.s in their first election.

Has the time come for another seismic shift in the Quebec electorate?

 

The best poll for the NDP so far had them at a 10% gap with the BQ (ARS: BQ 34%, NDP 24%). I don't think things get interesting for the NDP until any gap with the BQ narrows much more than that, given how evenly spread out the NPD vote is.

The one for Forum Research had the BQ at 27%, both the NDP & Liberals were tied 4% back at 23%

Surprised

Anonymouse

English commentators complimenting Layton's Quebec debate performance

 

Recently the Montreal Gazette (anglo, federalist paper) has been giving the NDP quite positive coverage

 

and the latest Ekos poll (April 14-15th) has:

BQ 28

NDP 24

Lib 23

CPC 18

GR 7

 

as well, as the NDP as second choice of 26.1% of Canadian voters:

 

Second choice for Conservatives

1) NDP 23%

2) Lib 20%

Second choice for Liberals

1) NDP 49%

Second choice for BQ

1) NDP 41%

2) Liberals 17%

 

NDP's big bump in the QC media post-debates seems to be cooling off going in to the weekend

 

Also the four party leaders seem to be descending on the same isolated Northern QC riding where the NDP is running star candidate Romeo Saganash. What is going on there?

Anonymouse

For those entertained by metering exercises, here is one that was done during the French debates. The public seems really turned off/cynical about Harper and Ignatieff, and responds strongest to Layton (even when his French is craptacular, as in clip #2) and Duceppe. Also interesting to me, the statements by Duceppe and Layton that got the strongest approval were those talking cooperation (clips #3,4 between parties, between Canadians). As I said earlier and will scream from the hilltops now...this is the theme of the campaign! This is why people can't decide if they want to give Harper a majority to stop the infighting or pull him back to avoid the fears/distaste they have for his agenda.

Anonymouse

I don't know what I was thinking when I said that the NDP media bump was slowing down in QC, because here is some more.

The NDP candidate in Drummond has made a good splash in his home town paper talking about the NDP's economic policies. I fully expect this seat to be a four-way race (NDP @ 17% in 2008) and if the recent NDP poll numbers are for real, a target for a win.

In another strong riding for the NDP (2nd place in 2008 with 15%, Rookie BQ MP was elected @ 18 and is an undergraduate student @ UOttawa), Repentigny, the NDP candidate picks up some good press. Notice his balanced praise of Layton's French debate performance (e.g. criticises Layton a bit) and call for PR.

DaveW

David Young wrote:

When Quebec voters change their voting habits, it usually happens in huge waves...

1958 - 50 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 9 in 1957

1962 - 26 Social Credit M.P.s elected after none in 1958

1984 - 58 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 1 in 1980

1993 - 54 Bloc Quebecois M.P.s in their first election.

Has the time come for another seismic shift in the Quebec electorate?

 

yes, you could add of course 1976 provincially,

and the PQ jumping to power, from I think 6-7 seats to 70-plus and total humilation for Bourassa Liberals ....

 

Wilf Day

The link to the Repentigny story above was wrong. Here's the right link.

By the way, I see he lives in Montreal where he ran municipally, but "He says he knows the area, because members of his family reside in Repentigny." Not a real plus?

bekayne

I don't think I've seen this discussed, but what does the PQ have invested in this election? Are they going all out to prevent a poor Bloc showing?

KenS

The BQ and PQ share or coordinate personnel and resources. So "all out" is the norm. Or put differently, there is nothing more to dip into or committ that isnt out there already.

adma

DaveW wrote:
yes, you could add of course 1976 provincially,

Or, for that matter, 2007 provincially, even if the ADQ was a one-election wonder.

Anonymouse

Wilf Day wrote:

The link to the Repentigny story above was wrong. Here's the right link.

By the way, I see he lives in Montreal where he ran municipally, but "He says he knows the area, because members of his family reside in Repentigny." Not a real plus?

Thanks and yes, it sounds like bad news. On a very slight bright side, the young BQ MP is reputed to be a very progressively minded guy and acting as such in Parliament. That being said, this working class riding should be NDP territory if the party wants to grow in the province.

Anonymouse

For fun, I have been playing around with the UBC Election Forecaster and trying to replicate the strongest recent NDP poll results from QC. Of course, the forecaster is really dumb in that it assumes that nothing changes between 2008 and 2011 at the riding level so all aggregate trends apply equally across ridings (almost certain a false assumption), but it is still interesting as a type of "sensitivity" analysis of how many seats could go one way or another based on the current support shifts the Ekos poll claims.

Results: With the NDP's Ekos polling numbers, I looked at a virtually pure vote shift from the BQ to the NDP, with a pure shift from the Conservatives to the BQ. In the event of such a shift the NDP win Outremont and Gatineau comfortably and nothing else.

The Liberals are the main beneficiaries, winning 4 more seats. Otherwise the seats results remain the same, with the NDP finishing a close second in about 16 mainly francophone BQ seats, mostly in outlying communities around Montreal.

Sweep: I tinkered with switching votes between the BQ and NDP, to see how small the gap has to be before the NDP makes big gains.

NDP seats (Gap: %BQ-%NDP)

3 (4.5%)

4 (3.5%)

5,6 (3.1%)

8,9 (1.9%)

10 (1.6%)

11 (1.5%)

13,14 (1.1%)

15 (0.9%)

16 (0.7%)

17 (0.5%)

18,19 (0.3%)

20 (0.1%)

23 (0%)

------

So in conclusion, it looks like Mulcair can achieve his goal of 6 MPs if the NDP closes the gap with the BQ to 3%, otherwise nothing happens unless the gap gets below 2%. The take-home lesson from this, is that the NDP breakthrough probably happens (given the current polling numbers) when the BQ-NDP gap closes to 3%. Another take-home lesson is that there is a low-hanging tier of seats and then quite a gap before they all start to fall off the tree. So a 6-seat target strategy is probably right on the money.

For fun, here are the 6 seats UBC says go NDP: Outremont, Gatineau, Laurier-Ste.-Marie, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, Drummond, Saint Lambert

Of those, I would be willing to believe Outremont, Gatineau, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, and Drummond are feasible (in that order). The first three are definitely on the NDP's radar and the last has a strong candidate. More likely though, is that the NDP would win Abitibi-Baie James before Drummond (with a 3% gap my model has the NDP 7.1% behind the BQ in Abitibi-Baie James, and assuming a bump from running a star candidate...), and who knows what could happen in Jonquiere-Alma (my projection has the NPD at 17.7%, 25% behind the Conservatives). My projection puts Hull-Aylmer out of reach (the Liberals are polling too high, NDP only reaches 27.4%). Hull-Aylmer depends completely on whether or not the BQ vote folds like a cheap tent. My guess is it won't be enough this time. Jeanne-Le-Ber also goes Liberal by less than 3%, so if NDP candidate Tyrone Benskin has any star power, maybe he could close that gap too.

So there you have it: NDP wins Outremont, Gatineau, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie in the event of a breakthrough. Abitibi-Baie-James, Jeanne-Le-Ber, Drummond as stalking horses.

Anonymouse

For those interested, here are the numbers I punched into the UBC forecaster:

 

"Migrating from ... party in 2008 Migrating to party ... in 2010
CPC LIB NDP BLQ GRP OTR NON
Conservative Party CPC 81.0 % 19.0 %

Liberal Party LIB 94.1 % 5.9 %

New Democratic Party NDP 100.0 %

Bloc Québecois BLQ 34.2 % 58.1 % 7.7 %

Green Party GRP 100.0 %

Other Parties OTR 100.0 %

Non-Voters NON 100.0 %"

 

Anonymouse

More warm and fuzzy coverage of the NDP. This time in Quebec City. The journalist was impressed that the crowd at the NDP rally was young, unlike for the 3 other parties. Raymond Cote, the NDP candidate in the most winnable seat(?), received a shout out.

Anonymouse

It's been a huge media day for the NDP in Quebec. Lots of glowing coverage and the beginnings of pushback from the Bloc Quebecois. Jack Layton met with popular Quebec City mayor Regis Lebeaume today and the QMI news agency is running the headline "Quebec is in love with Jack"

Lord Palmerston

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEzFER-Dcik]Jack Layton campaigns in Montreal[/url]

David Young

It's so amusing to hear the political commentators who say that even with 24%+ support, the NDP won't win more that 2-3 seats.

When Alexa McDonough ran her first campaign in 1997, the NDP went from 0 seats in Atlantic Canada to 8, electing MPs in ridings like Acadie-Bathurst, Halifax, Dartmouth, Halifax West, Beasejour, Sackville-Eastern Shore, and Sydney-Victoria, where the NDP had never elected members before.

Jack's rise in popularity in Quebec reminds me greatly of Alexa's experience in 1997.

As I listed several examples in a previous post, when Quebec voters change their voting patterns, they do so in force.

 

Lord Palmerston

It's not totally baseless...the NDP suffers under the FPTP system.  The NDP got 25% in Saskatchewan in the last election and zero seats.

Anonymouse

Recap of today:

Local candidates getting news coverage

Serge Bergeron (Beauce) 1, 2

This is Maxime Bernier's riding and unlikely to switch. Bernier is part of a political dynasty in this riding where every family has a bottle of maple syrup on its kitchen table. Yes, they make some of the best maple treats. He wins 2/3rds of the vote.

Québec City candidates: Raymond Côté says the NDP could win half the seats in the Capital region Tongue out Anne-Mary Day also got some shoutouts as candidate in Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles

Romeo Saganash got news coverage across the province

Pierre Jacob in Brôme-Missisquoi 

In what could become a true four-way race economist and 4th time candidate Guy Caron got mention in his race against rookie BQ MP Claude Guimond in 

 

Rimouski-Neigette – Témiscouata – Les Basques. 

Mathieu Ravignat in Pontiac

And not to be left out: Françoise Boivin in Gatineau.

And that doesn't even count all the TV broadcasts and articles about Layton, calling him the "surprise" of the campaign, "second to Duceppe in Québec and second to Harper in Canada" etc. It is probably also the source of radio discussion.

 

 

Krago

The NDP needs to go all out in support of its local campaigns in Quebec.

The central party should transfer enough funds to the Quebec riding associations so that they can pool their money and buy lots of TV ads across the province.  If the riding associations aren't capable of doing so in such a short time-frame (two weeks), maybe they could transfer the money back to the central party and let them handle the details.  Since it would benefit their local campaigns, they could still claim it as a local expense - rather than a national expense - and get a substantial rebate from Elections Canada.

WyldRage

An article on why sovereignists should NOT vote for the NDP.

http://www2.lactualite.com/jean-francois-lisee/le-npd-et-le-quebec-quand...

Pogo Pogo's picture

I hear from multiple sources that the NDP vote is less effective because it is spread out evenly.  What is this based on?  The only regional breakdown I remember seeing showed the NDP vote being concentrated in greater Montreal.  Aren't people saying it is spread evenly simply because they don't know how it is spread out.

bekayne

Pogo wrote:

I hear from multiple sources that the NDP vote is less effective because it is spread out evenly.  What is this based on?  The only regional breakdown I remember seeing showed the NDP vote being concentrated in greater Montreal.  Aren't people saying it is spread evenly simply because they don't know how it is spread out.

Polling in the past couple of years from Leger & CROP tended to show the NDP running running evenly between regions & linguistic groups

Pogo Pogo's picture

But the Ekos poll last week showed the NDP 10% higher in Montreal.  While it is a smaller sample size it does raise questions about how the sudden bump is playing out.

bekayne

Pogo wrote:

But the Ekos poll last week showed the NDP 10% higher in Montreal.  While it is a smaller sample size it does raise questions about how the sudden bump is playing out.

There's some new Montreal numbers from today's EKOS

BQ  35.7%, Lib 21.7%, NDP 20.6%, Con 14.6%, Green 6.1%

 

Wilf Day

Krago wrote:
The central party should transfer enough funds to the Quebec riding associations so that they can pool their money and buy lots of TV ads across the province.  If the riding associations aren't capable of doing so in such a short time-frame (two weeks), maybe they could transfer the money back to the central party and let them handle the details.  Since it would benefit their local campaigns, they could still claim it as a local expense - rather than a national expense - and get a substantial rebate from Elections Canada.

In and out, anyone?

Anonymouse

My thought too Wilf.

The smears are flying against NDP star candidate Francoise Boivin (Gatineau, the NDP's likely 2nd seat in the event of a breakthrough) from both the BQ and Liberals and getting very low.

It was stunning yesterday how positive the coverage of the NPD was in Quebec City. Then again, Layton had a lot of sweetheart policy announcements to make after what sounded like an enthusiastic meeting with Quebec City mayor Regis Lebeaume. Even though there are only two weeks left, I am guessing the NPD will pay another visit to Quebec, stopping perhaps in Jonquiere-Alma (the Saguenay) to support star candidate Claude Patry, Montreal to support candidates like Helen Leblanc (see below), and Gatineau-Hull-Aylmer given the NDPs high hopes there (yes, the NPD has already been there at least twice already during this campaign). 

Helene Leblanc, NPD candidate in LaSalle Emard (federalist, potential 4-way race, with a good demographic mix in Montreal) was profiled in a local paper. She is one of the NDP candidates with some profile in Quebec having had a strong finish (3rd?) in the Montreal municipal elections as a local candidate for the very green and progressive Projet Montreal.

Jean Rousseau, NDP candidate in Compton Stanstead's debate participation is profiled here. The NPD has a chance here if there is a massive shift from the BQ to NDP, but only IF.

The BQ incumbent is attacking the NDP in Drummond, a very winnable seat for the NDP in a possible 4-way race.

There are too many Quebec editorials about the NDPs gains (positive) to read these days.

The Liberals seem to have made a large online ad buy over the last few days in Quebec. The BQ has also been advertising. I have yet to see any ads for the NDP but I bet most of them are running on TV (hopefully outside the news timeslots given the big and positive billing the NDP has already been getting there).

The BQ has dropped the gloves with the NDP appealing to Quebeckers to vote strategically for the BQ to prevent the Conservatives from getting elected. Duceppe's slogan is "Votez utile" or "Vote useful" in English. For the most part Duceppe has tried to ridicule the NDP, suggesting they are not a party to take seriously. Duceppe has also raised the issue of separation perhaps to solidify his base and attacks on the NPD's sympathy toward Quebec are being floated. Duceppe has to be careful not to let all of this get too ugly or it might explode in his face.

Anonymouse

The media in Quebec City said Layton would never visit. Well guess what...he did, and Quebeckers turned out to support him. Who would have imagined a rally with the NDP like this before Layton became leader?

Krago

Wilf Day wrote:

Krago wrote:
The central party should transfer enough funds to the Quebec riding associations so that they can pool their money and buy lots of TV ads across the province.  If the riding associations aren't capable of doing so in such a short time-frame (two weeks), maybe they could transfer the money back to the central party and let them handle the details.  Since it would benefit their local campaigns, they could still claim it as a local expense - rather than a national expense - and get a substantial rebate from Elections Canada.

In and out, anyone?

I'm glad somebody noticed!

When the Tories did it back in 2006, I thought it was unethical and borderline criminal.  Now I'm not so sure... Wink

Anonymouse

The NPD is blasting back with 4 new ads, including one that takes a jab at Duceppe criticism of Layton being "a nice guy" but Quebeckers not needing to elect a nice guy, needing to elect a guy that yada yada yada.

The main change in these ads is that the tagline has been modified to say "There is a lot to do. All the better. We are ready, we have the team."

ETA: I'm actually worried the NDP might be running too many ads in Quebec. Given that the ads repeat the same campaign music, they could get very repetitive and thus annoying if they get a lot of back to back play. Also, these ads carry an important message but seem less polished than the previous set. I hope the NDP manages the right balance in their ad buy in Quebec (and doesn't forget the rest of Canada Tongue out)

KenS

It is an unfortunate misnomer labelling what the Cons did in 2006 "In and Out". In and Out, per se, has been done for a long time, And it is legal. What the Conservatives did is use In and Out as a shellgame to move expenses from the national campaign to riding campaigns that had room under their spending cap.

What Krago outined is legal and substantialy close to practices that are relatively common.

Wilf Day

Anonymouse wrote:
The BQ has dropped the gloves with the NDP appealing to Quebeckers to vote strategically for the BQ to prevent the Conservatives from getting elected. Duceppe's slogan is "Votez utile" or "Vote useful" in English.

"Voter utile" is the French phrase for "strategic voting."

I hope Duceppe feels embarassed to use the old Liberal line. Then again, I guess the PQ used that against Amir Khadir and Quebec Solidaire, with some success.

Anonymouse

Wilf Day wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:
The BQ has dropped the gloves with the NDP appealing to Quebeckers to vote strategically for the BQ to prevent the Conservatives from getting elected. Duceppe's slogan is "Votez utile" or "Vote useful" in English.

"Voter utile" is the French phrase for "strategic voting."

I hope Duceppe feels embarassed to use the old Liberal line. Then again, I guess the PQ used that against Amir Khadir and Quebec Solidaire, with some success.

Thanks Wilf, I hadn't seen the term before.

Anonymouse

Layton's visit to Québec City and their mayor (the most popular politician in Québec) continues to generate coattails for local candidates. Following a poll showing Raymond Côté a strong third for the NDP in Beauport-Limolou, the media has given him a solo article and written about the BQ candidate's pushback.

Also from the Québec region, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Conservative Josée Verner's NDP opponent Alexandrine Latendresse picked up a media mention. 

Réjean Genest, NPD candidate from the winnable seat of Shefford (especially given the anecdotal polling evidence of a complete collapse of francophone Liberal support and the crumbling of Central Québec "ma région au pouvoir" support for the Conservatives), got a positive profile in the local press. Looks like a nice guy! Don't tell Duceppe Wink Jack and Tom please visit Shefford!

And while we're on the subject of the flame out of Harper's "ma région au pouvoir" campaign, here is a quote from a Conservative strategist:

 

Même les conservateurs disent le sentir dans certaines régions, nommément Québec, mais aussi le Centre-du-Québec.

«En ce moment, le NPD fait mal à tout le monde, on le sent pour vrai», indique un stratège conservateur.

link

 

Rough translation: Even the conservatives say they feel it [the Jack Layton's appeal] in certain regions, specifically Québec, but also the Centre of Québec. "At this time, the NDP is doing damage to everyone, we really feel it," indicated a conservative strategist.

There were yet more articles about Roméo Saganash today. Wow does this guy sound cool. Check out this lead on an article about him:

Difficile de marcher dans les rues de Val-d’Or avec Roméo Saganash sans se faire arrêter constamment.

Reconnu par tous, particulièrement par les autochtones, il serre des mains, parle aux gens : une phrase en anglais, une phrase en français, une en cri ou en anishinabe (langue parlée principalement par les Algonquins).

Translation: It's hard to walk the streets of Val d'Or with Roméo Saganash with being constantly stopped. Known by everyone, particularly the First Nations/aboriginals, he shakes hands, speaks to people: one sentence in English, one in French, one in Cree or in Anishinabe (language spoken principally by the Algonquin).

 

I recommend reading the whole article, it's really positive/great.

Here is a cheeky editorial about Quebeckers love affair with Jack. Two points from the article: 1) If Quebeckers are in love with Jack, can you imagine what it would be like if his name were Jacques? 2) Love at first sight is often short lived. The same news story wrote an editorial about Jack's rise calling it the fall of "nationalisation" in the presence of strong "nationalism."

It sounds like Mulcair threw Charest under the bus recently as the attacks on the NPD continue to gain steam. Frown

Anonymouse

I'm getting a real kick out of the BQ messages on twitter. They are going in to overdrive trying to stop the NDP surge. They've trotted out ex-NDP candidate Christelle Bogosta who ran and got 9% in Brome-Missisquoi in 2008 and is now the BQ candidate to say the BQ is where it's at. When she switched sides, the only justification the BQ leadership made for her jump was, well we asked her to confirm that she voted "oui" in 1995, so it's all good. Duceppe's new line about Jack is he may be a nice guy but the NDP is not so "nice" for Quebec. Give me a break. It's funny that just a few weeks ago the BQ grassroots couldn't drive away NPD star recruit Jean-Claude Rocheleau fast enough and now they're grasping at the nearest NPD straw they can reach. The NPD is campaigning on a positive message and the BQ is running scared!

David Young

Did I just hear that the NDP just hit 30% support in Quebec?

 

Anonymouse

Duceppe is calling Layton "the best ally of Harper"

NDP candidate Francois Choquette picked up another positive news article in the local paper, this time on environmental issues.

NDP @ 30% in QC is just a rumour right now. We will have to see what the CROP poll says. If you look at the sensitivity analysis above, you will see that if the NDP ties the BQ it wins roughly 20 seats, so if the NDP were actually in the 30s and were above the BQ, that is a scenario the party would be looking at. This would, at the least, move the NDP into 3rd place in the HoC.

Anonymouse

First a quote:

"Mulcair, the NDP’s Quebec lieutenant and a former Quebec cabinet minister, said Wednesday night that the poll results reflect what he has seeing on the ground. In fact, the response he got during a swing through the traditionally sovereignist Saguenay Lac St. Jean region last week was so positive that party organizers joked he had lost his mind when he reported he thought the NDP was at 40 per cent in that area." link

Now for the rumoured polls:

EKOS

NDP 31 BQ 24 LIB 20 CPC 17

CROP

NDP 36 BQ 31 CPC 17 LIB 13 

The CROP numbers could see the NDP win up to 40 seats in Québec. If no other seats changed hands this election, the NDP would be the official opposition, with Jack Layton called upon to be PM if the Conservative minority fell on a confidence vote. These polls are earthshattering.

 

Anonymouse

I tried plugging the CROP numbers in to the UBC projection model.

The NDP wins 37 seats, the Libs lose 14 to win 0, the CPC lose 3 to win 7, the BQ lose 19 to win 30.

Shades of election 2000.

Wilf Day

Anonymouse wrote:
I tried plugging the CROP numbers in to the UBC projection model.

The NDP wins 37 seats, the Libs lose 14 to win 0, the CPC lose 3 to win 7, the BQ lose 19 to win 30.

I did the same, and I got NDP 36, BQ 32, Con 6, Ind. 1, Libs 0. Very similar, but see this thread for some refinements.

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