quebec election - 04.09.2012

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love is free love is free's picture
quebec election - 04.09.2012

first day in, amir is suggesting a solidaire campaign targetting 15 seats. http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/01/01-456...

quote:

QS a lancé sa campagne au Cabaret du Mile-End, dans le Plateau Mont-Royal, un des quartiers où il compte habituellement le plus d'appuis. Mais le parti a aussi l'oeil sur les circonscriptions de Laurier-Dorion, Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Rouyn-Noranda, Hull, Taschereau, Outremont et Joliette, entre autres. Le parti dit être en mesure de gagner ou d'«obtenir des résultats très intéressants» dans ces circonscriptions, selon les mots de Françoise David, présidente de la formation.

and, obviously, amir's riding of mercier and françoise's riding of gouin, where the chances are pretty good.  and though unmentioned, we can't forget the people's republic of rosemont (adjacent to gouin).

the journal released a poll today that shows the pq ahead in voter preference (33%) and francophone support (39%), but second to charest in leadership (21%).  the plq sits at 31% and 24% of francophones (wow), with charest at 23% on leadership.  the caq is set to tip some seats either way (21% support is nothing to sniff at, especially compared with qs's worst in years 7% support).

at this point, only three things are totally known about the campaign:

1) that most everyone knows what they think of both marois and charest, and that these two performers are such pros/old hands, that nothing they do in the campaign will change any minds;
2) that the caq has the most room for movement here, up or down, depending on the dynamism of the leader;
3) the solidaire vote will rise above 10% if either of the co-spokespeople are allowed into the debate, but come in ~5% if not (huge difference in seats).

love is free love is free's picture

follow up notes from the journal's numbers:

pq is way up in the suburbs north of montreal, with 41% against caq at 28% and plq at 25%.  this is where legault thinks to make his base (old adq turf in 2007), so it's interesting.  south shore suburbs, different story: pq 38, plq 36, caq 20.  on montreal island, we've a plq lead of 33% to 28% for the pq, but they don't want to give us the solidaire number, for some reason.

 

Fidel

Charest asks phony-baloney majority of voters to ensure his party’s re-election

All we need is a phony one, says Charest, and we'll crook and rob the taxpayers like it's no one else's bizness..

love is free love is free's picture

so solidaire has been excluded from the 3 debates, which is going to hurt, no question.  more shocking, perharps, is that i just did the boussole électorale on the rad-can site http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/05/04/001-in... and discovered that my views align most with those of the pq.  fully 75% pq, as opposed to only 68% for solidaire.  i guess i could read the platforms more closely, but i think that result touches on two intangibles: 1) there is an unquantifiable value in voting for a very small, very progressive party that, if successful, could take the debate further leftward, across the board; 2) there is a near-certain media bias in the account of solidaire, wherein my more neutral and balanced revenue answers were assumed not to fit a strongly progressive agenda like that of qs.  tsk tsk.

also in the election news today, charest is going full-bore on the separatism, as marois ignores it almost completely.  learned the lesson of the bq campaign pretty well, i think she did.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Does anyone know if QS has a chance in my riding (Duplessis)? I don't want to make the mistake I made in the last federal election.

nicky

Quebec Solidaire in the last election elected one member and polled 3.6 per cent of the vote, almost exactly what the federal Greens got. QS's exclusion from the debate is at least good precedent to exclude Elizabeth May as well. 

Bärlüer

love is free wrote:

so solidaire has been excluded from the 3 debates, which is going to hurt, no question.

It's been excluded from the TVA debates (Quebecor again going on their own...) (3 one-on-one debates between the PLQ, PQ and CAQ leaders), but it will participate in the "media consortium" (that is, Radio-Canada and Télé-Québec... [I guess V will be running some reality show...]) debate (from which, BTW, Jean-Martin Aussant, Option nationale leader, has been excluded).

Bärlüer

Boom Boom wrote:

Does anyone know if QS has a chance in my riding (Duplessis)? I don't want to make the mistake I made in the last federal election.

I'd say no, it doesn't have any (realistic) chance. In 2008, the results were 52.35% PQ, 34.28% PLQ (2.55% for QS). You can vote QS pretty much in full confidence that you don't run the risk of inadvertently helping the liberal candidate to win.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Could I accomplish the same thing by voting PQ?

ETA: Marois just announced she will roll back the tuition hikes within 100 days of her taking office as Premier.

Bärlüer

Boom Boom wrote:

Could I accomplish the same thing by voting PQ?

Accomplish what? What I meant was, you can vote whatever party best represents your views without fearing that the liberal candidate might slip through. I figured that party would be QS, but if you prefer the PQ, or Option nationale, or the Green Party... go right ahead!

Boom Boom wrote:
ETA: Marois just announced she will roll back the tuition hikes within 100 days of her taking office as Premier.

... and then, after holding a summit, will proceed to implement another, "kinder" tuition hike...

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Guess I'll vote QS for the first time, then. Smile

WyldRage

Bärlüer wrote:

Boom Boom wrote:

Does anyone know if QS has a chance in my riding (Duplessis)? I don't want to make the mistake I made in the last federal election.

I'd say no, it doesn't have any (realistic) chance. In 2008, the results were 52.35% PQ, 34.28% PLQ (2.55% for QS). You can vote QS pretty much in full confidence that you don't run the risk of inadvertently helping the liberal candidate to win.

Be careful: Charest is betting his "Plan Nord" BS will give him several Northern ridings. While I also doubt they will be easy conquest for him, things shift quickly in Québec.

love is free love is free's picture

duceppe attacks khadir as a mendicant and a traitor, a self-described separatist who "kneels before the ndp" federalists.  what a has-been.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/03/01-456...

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Yeah, Duceppe is yesterday's man.

robbie_dee

Quote:
What started as a campus backlash soon ballooned into an all-out rebellion against a government that was perceived as favouring the rich – and jolted Quebec out of a longstanding political torpor. No one following the student cause could be indifferent. Suddenly, there was a revival of passionate debate about the future of the province not seen since the last sovereignty referendum in 1995.

Konrad Yakabuski, [url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/these-young-people-want-to-..."Age Collides With Politics in Today's Fractured Quebec,"[/url] Globe and Mail, August 4, 2012.

autoworker autoworker's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

Quote:
What started as a campus backlash soon ballooned into an all-out rebellion against a government that was perceived as favouring the rich – and jolted Quebec out of a longstanding political torpor. No one following the student cause could be indifferent. Suddenly, there was a revival of passionate debate about the future of the province not seen since the last sovereignty referendum in 1995.

Konrad Yakabuski, [url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/these-young-people-want-to-..."Age Collides With Politics in Today's Fractured Quebec,"[/url] Globe and Mail, August 4, 2012.


So, Marois steps out of her $8,000,000 mansion, and into the public square-- with her casserole!

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

autoworker wrote:

 So, Marois steps out of her $8,000,000 mansion, and into the public square-- with her casserole!

The last I saw of it was this:  Marois's Île Bizard mansion close to being sold  (with photo)

excerpt:

The luxurious home of Parti Québécois leader Pauline Marois and her husband, Claude Blanchet, has been conditionally sold to a European francophone who bid close to the asking price of almost $7 million.

excerpt:

The luxurious riverside manoir on Île Bizard, on the market since July 2009, has become a political story in Quebec.

The house — which bears the name La Closerie — was recently described by a Radio Canada television host as “a political albatross” for the leader of a party that sees itself as being of the people.

 

Meanwhile, as of 2009, Jean Charest was the owner of 2 houses, a $2 million mansion in Westmount and a  $1 million "chalet" in Nortth Hatley.

robbie_dee

I'm wondering what Quebecois babblers think of Yakabuski's central thesis that there is a fundamental generational divide in Quebec politics which may decide the election. I really don't know, as I live in Toronto and have to rely mainly on English-language media for coverage.I thought it sounded like an interesting argument, though.

Quote:
If debate is healthy, it’s also messy: The student protests have spurred new discussions about what “our Quebec” should look like. It’s also revealed how splintered the answer to that question has become. Canadians may think of Quebec as a province with a strong collective identity – perhaps at times a herd mentality – but that group affiliation has been fractured.

Old regional and partisan divisions still exist. What’s new? Conflict along generational lines. In today’s Quebec, age is becoming a reliable (if imperfect) indicator of politics.

***

PQ Leader Pauline Marois’s generation grew up in a cloistered Quebec. They threw off the shackles of the Catholic Church and the anglophone business establishment. But the Quiet Revolution institutions cherished by Ms. Marois and her ilk – from Hydro-Québec to the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec – have become symbols of crony capitalism for Mr. Nadeau-Dubois’s generation.

A sovereign Quebec that grandfathers such state-sponsored behemoths will not hold appeal for young Quebeckers in the student protest movement.

The same goes for those between 35 and 55, though for different reasons. Many among this cohort feel it’s time to rethink Quebec’s statist model and finally address the wealth gap with the rest of Canada.

These Generation Xers and tail-end boomers are more pragmatic than their elders. If they’re not ready to scrap $7-a-day daycare – as parents, they benefit most from it – they question whether it is worth paying the highest taxes in North America to keep it.

They did not fight the Quiet Revolution and, hence, have little stake in defending its sacred cows. They have no sympathy for the students’ quixotic quest for a free education.

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/these-young-people-want-to-...

autoworker autoworker's picture

@Boom Boom: The 8 million figure I saw was for 2009-- geez, times must be tough for Quebec's upper crust, if Marois and her spouse are letting it go for under 7 million-- how much will it be worth if she's elected, any guesses?

love is free love is free's picture

i definitely agree that there's a generation divide between younger and older, but i totally disagree that younger people keen to dismantle quebec's welfare state.  that seems way way off base.  hydro quebec, for instance, is a sacred cow, while most people just want the caisse to reinvest in quebec more than it does (as opposed to playing on international markets).  that's the change we want, if i could generalize like this yabluski dude does.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Marois is just about the worse leader I could imagine for the PQ.

Brachina

CAQ makes a serious play.

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/charest-accuses-ant...

I honestly have no clue how this race is going to turn out, so many players, so many twists, but I'm betting some kind of minority government.

Brachina

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/election-blog/ducep...

Did I not say Mulcair and the NDP would be dragged into to this election by the PQ? If QS does too well this will only grow stronger.

Does anyone have Amir's response to Gilles attack? Mulcair's?

love is free love is free's picture

amir basically said that it was an unfortunate comment on duceppe's part, and he's been leaving it at that.  there's nothing to be gained by engaging this guy, and even less to be gained by moving solidaire off message with the whole sov/fed argument.  as for mulcair and the team, our guys are way way too professional to wade into this one, there's no chance.  if even one mp came out in a dramatic way (press conference, for instance), i'd be very surprised.  our ndp mps are playing a way longer and more interesting game, and though many/most support solidaire individually, it would not be helpful to get engaged at this point.  this election is about electing the pq with the least possible level of support, minority dependent on solidaire if possible, and then following up with an ndp super-majority, en route to a mulcair premier-ship.

autoworker autoworker's picture

Unlike Harper, Mulcair has too much invested in Quebec to remain detached from the issues of this election. He's kidding himself if he thinks he can ride this out. Duceppe has nothing to lose by proclaiming himself as the true sovereigntist, while reminding the Quebecois that Marois and her Pequistes won't pussyfoot with federalists, including the NDP/NPD's watered down, nationalist agenda. Will Mulcair come forward and reiterate his position on a referendum, should the PQ form the next government? I can't see how he can avoid clarification on what's become a key election issue. People want to know whose interests his MP's represent.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Have there been any polls as to the sovereingty question? I thought it was more or less a dead issue until Harper got his majority.

autoworker autoworker's picture

I don't think Quebec will miss an opportunity to up the ante. Sovereignty is always on the table when the chips are down.

WyldRage

Yes, on the 26th of July: 49% in favor of "souveraineté-association". 

http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2012/07/20120726-161228.html

Stockholm

I'm amazed that ONLY 49% of Quebecers say they would be in favour of "having their cake and eating it too". Why isn't it 100%??

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

WyldRage wrote:

Yes, on the 26th of July: 49% in favor of "souveraineté-association". 

http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2012/07/20120726-161228.html

Much appreciated. Thanks!

autoworker autoworker's picture

So, will the NDP/NPD distance itself from QS's beaver bashing?

love is free love is free's picture

the duchesneau caq news is a pretty big deal, great news for that campaign, even if duchesneau is well past his expiry date and comes off as a crank.  solidaire is still waiting on nominations in 13 more districts, the campaign literature looks pretty good, very much on the theme of "debout!"

otherwise, nothing much to report.  as for the ndp, again, there's just nothing to be gained by an intervention into provincial politics.  

Ippurigakko

here Vote Compass

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/features/votecompass.html

 

My results are

QS 68% my highest agree with.
ON 65%
PQ 63%
PVQ 59%
CAQ 50% errrr
PLQ 39% lowest!! lol!

Grandpa_Bill

Boom Boom wrote:

Have there been any polls as to the sovereingty question? I thought it was more or less a dead issue until Harper got his majority.

Polls be damned, fearless leader Pauline Marois "is campaigning first on the platform of integrity followed closely by . . . independence."

Meanwhile, Charest says, “I think jobs are an issue, frankly. I think the economy is the issue,”

PQ leader campaigns against the Queen

Punch and Judy politics.

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Grandpa_Bill wrote:

Punch and Judy politics.

 

Perfect summarization of Quebec politics! Laughing

lagatta

I don't trust Marois or the PQ on the tuition-fee moratorium. Well, you know I'm a QS supporter from day one - I was at the founding conference.

Amir is doing well to not respond anything more to Gilles' bad-tempered outburst. It sounded very petty. Lots of sovereigntists here voted  Ndp last time - and I know more than a few leftwing federalists who have voted QS.

lagatta

I don't trust Marois or the PQ on the tuition-fee moratorium. Well, you know I'm a QS supporter from day one - I was at the founding conference.

Amir is doing well to not respond anything more to Gilles' bad-tempered outburst. It sounded very petty. Lots of sovereigntists here voted  Ndp last time - and I know more than a few leftwing federalists who have voted QS.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

The English media (CTV Montreal) is REALLY pushing the CAQ...It seems the only party they are following is the CAQ--24/7.

I'll be voting PQ in a riding that will most likely go PLQ.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

QS has no chance here, but I can't bring myself to vote for a party led by either Marois or Charest.

Brachina

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1236795--hebert-caq-s-francoi...

What do you think a CAQ victory will be on Federal Politics, specifically.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

QS has no chance here, but I can't bring myself to vote for a party led by either Marois or Charest.

Vote QS anyway. The higher their pop. vote is this election the more credible they will be next election. You have to start somewhere.

Unionist

knownothing wrote:

Boom Boom wrote:

QS has no chance here, but I can't bring myself to vote for a party led by either Marois or Charest.

Vote QS anyway. The higher their pop. vote is this election the more credible they will be next election. You have to start somewhere.

Like!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Ippurigakko wrote:

here Vote Compass

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/features/votecompass.html

 

My results are

QS 68% my highest agree with.
ON 65%
PQ 63%
PVQ 59%
CAQ 50% errrr
PLQ 39% lowest!! lol!

 

Mine are

QS 86%

PVQ 72%

ON 71%

PQ 63%

CAQ 45%

PLQ 38%

 

On the compass, I ended up a bit closer to the PVQ than to QS, probably because I voted "neutral" on some of the identity and language questions.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The weirdest thing was discovering that the PVQ favor "public order" over the right to protest(also, that, for some reason, they take the right-wing position of backing the abolition of school boards).

Not sure who the PVQ think they're going to impress with those particular positions...you rarely find pro-austerity "law and order" types that give a shit about "green values".

love is free love is free's picture

yeah, on that vote compass, i was:

pq 75%
qs 68%
on 63%
pvq 63%
plq 51%
caq 43%

really weird result but, as i said above, i think i was answering the questions more pragmatically than their model allows the various programs to be considered.  86% qs is really impressive.

josh

Forumm poll:

PQ 34%
Liberals: 32%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
Greens: 3%

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/09/caq-support-surging-as-pq-quebec...

josh

Forumm poll:

PQ 34%
Liberals: 32%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
Greens: 3%

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/09/caq-support-surging-as-pq-quebec...

josh

Forumm poll: PQ 34% Liberals: 32% CAQ: 24% QS: 6% Greens: 3% http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/09/caq-support-surging-as-pq-quebec...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

QS - 77%

ON - 70%

PQ - 64%

GRN - 63%

CAQ - 52%

PLQ - 36%

 

LOL!

theleftyinvestor

Charest proposes free dental care up to 16 years old... "And over 16: Free extractions for all those who show their teeth!"

"I declare open the Electoral Games of Quebec."

 

What's the difference between an Olympic race and a Quebec electoral race? At the Olympics, the last winner doesn't get to fire the starting pistol.

 

 

Lachine Scot

Ken Burch wrote:

The weirdest thing was discovering that the PVQ favor "public order" over the right to protest(also, that, for some reason, they take the right-wing position of backing the abolition of school boards).

Not sure who the PVQ think they're going to impress with those particular positions...you rarely find pro-austerity "law and order" types that give a shit about "green values".

Source? Is it in that vote compass site? I couldn't find anything about it on their policy site, which by the way has some weird formatting errors :/

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