first day in, amir is suggesting a solidaire campaign targetting 15 seats. http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/01/01-456...
QS a lancé sa campagne au Cabaret du Mile-End, dans le Plateau Mont-Royal, un des quartiers où il compte habituellement le plus d'appuis. Mais le parti a aussi l'oeil sur les circonscriptions de Laurier-Dorion, Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Rouyn-Noranda, Hull, Taschereau, Outremont et Joliette, entre autres. Le parti dit être en mesure de gagner ou d'«obtenir des résultats très intéressants» dans ces circonscriptions, selon les mots de Françoise David, présidente de la formation.
and, obviously, amir's riding of mercier and françoise's riding of gouin, where the chances are pretty good. and though unmentioned, we can't forget the people's republic of rosemont (adjacent to gouin).
the journal released a poll today that shows the pq ahead in voter preference (33%) and francophone support (39%), but second to charest in leadership (21%). the plq sits at 31% and 24% of francophones (wow), with charest at 23% on leadership. the caq is set to tip some seats either way (21% support is nothing to sniff at, especially compared with qs's worst in years 7% support).
at this point, only three things are totally known about the campaign:
1) that most everyone knows what they think of both marois and charest, and that these two performers are such pros/old hands, that nothing they do in the campaign will change any minds;
2) that the caq has the most room for movement here, up or down, depending on the dynamism of the leader;
3) the solidaire vote will rise above 10% if either of the co-spokespeople are allowed into the debate, but come in ~5% if not (huge difference in seats).