Quebec election -- final 2 weeks and decision April 7th

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DaveW
Quebec election -- final 2 weeks and decision April 7th

 

No, this is not random thread proliferation: the Quebec polls and parties thread has become overburdened and bogged down, with thousands of posts,  a few feuds and moderator intervention over the weekend after an inappropriate rant;

I proposed that, to clear the air, we start a new thread focusing exclusively on just the last 2 weeks to decision day April 7th; this will eventually run out of steam after the QC election itself,  then  the "polls and parties 2014" thread can continue on its merry way

So away we go, starting with the 308 site's aggregated poll data, showing most likely forecast  as of today March 24th a Liberal majority:

www.threehundredeight.com

 

 

 

 

 

Issues Pages: 
Regions: 
DaveW

also, new frontrunner Couillard now under attack from Right as well, with CAQ leader Legault asking him to denounce **bad word alert** the "shitty" legacy of Jean Charest:

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2014/03/24/le-bilan-liberal-compare-a-d...

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/403488/legault-appelle-couillar...

Trois-Rivières — Le chef de la Coalition avenir Québec, François Legault, appelle son adversaire Philippe Couillard à répudier l’héritage de «merde» léguée par son prédécesseur, Jean Charest.

«Si les Québécois pensent que tout va bien et qu’il n’y a pas de corruption, que l’économie va bien et qu’on ne paie pas trop de taxes, bien qu’ils votent pour les libéraux. Ils n’ont pas besoin de moi!» a lancé M. Legault, lundi avant-midi, en marge d’une annonce sur la stratégie maritime de la CAQ à Trois-Rivières. «Si vous voulez reconnaître que les neuf années libérales ont donné la merde qu’on a actuellement, ben changez! Essayez une autre recette!» a-t-il poursuivi.

 

DaveW

and yes, I have posted nothing about the stupid complaints about voter registration "problems" because, well, they are stupid

Unionist

DaveW wrote:

and yes, I have posted nothing about the stupid complaints about voter registration "problems" because, well, they are stupid

Of course they're stupid, but I think Chantal Hébert nailed the increasingly desperate PQ to the crucifix nicely here:

[url=http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/quebec/2014/03/24/quebecs_fearmongeri...’s fear-mongering PQ bears little resemblance to the party of René Lévesque[/url]

Quote:
According to Bertrand St-Arnaud, who rode in to Montreal bright and early on Sunday to sound the alarm, the April 7 election was at risk of being stolen by the rest of Canada. Hordes of out-of-province university students were determined to storm the bureaucratic gates of the election registration offices to sign up to vote for the federalist Liberal party.

In the absence of physical evidence that Canada’s foot soldiers were on the march, I concluded that the minister must be keeping information from the public, the better to prevent a full-fledged panic.

Given how well-versed today’s students are in the ways of Harry Potter, it seemed fair to assume that they had cleverly donned an invisibility cloak to take Quebec by stealth.

DaveW

another unsavoury sidelight, attacks by Marois and PQ increase on QS leader Francoise David:

I also saw today in Le Devoir protests after Marois acolyte and intellectual deadweight Lise Payette called Ms David a "chat de gouttière", which I guess is a step lower than alley cat and may have sexual connotations, not sure:

http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/22/elections-quebec-solidaire-pq...

La porte-parole parlementaire de Québec solidaire a indiqué que la chef péquiste n'a aucune raison de «jouer les victimes» car elle a délibérément choisi de déclencher une campagne en «croyant sans doute que les électeurs lui dérouleraient le tapis rouge».

Mme David a fait remarquer Mme Marois devait assumer sa décision de déclencher des élections générales.

 

swallow

The local paper in Sherbrooke reports that the total number of disputed registrations here (home to 2 of the 5 ridings allegedly swamped by anglo students) is precisely 1. 

 

lagatta

Dave, the being I love most in the world is a "chat de gouttière", my lovely Renzo, who was a stray kitten and is now the venerable age of 18. No particularly sexual connotation. It just doesn't make sense for Lise Payette to address Françoise David thus. I am old enough to remember when the PQ was the upstart party.

jerrym

Although I never supported with the PQ's ultimate goal, I deeply respected the democratic manner in which many of the early Pequistes, such as Levesque and Godin, pursued their goal of independence. It's been sad to see the party veer increasingly so far to the right that it is ready embrace Peladeau, to see Parizeau and Landry blaming immigrants for the loss of the 1995 referendum, to see an exclusionary secularism (even though I am a secularist) used in the Charter to attract voters, and to see desperate attempts to fear-monger about a possible election defeat caused by ROC students.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Another Leger poll puts the Liberals up 7 points

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/leger-poll-puts-liberals-on-top-1.1744608

DaveW

So it's unanimous: PQ needs a crushing lesson.

Voters, damn the torpedoes full speed ahead! Tongue out

DaveW
Brachina

http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/03/quebec-so-much-for-my-theory-about-the...

 

 Warren has admitted his theory about the electiblity of guys with beards may in fact be wrong! ;D

DaveW

very funny cartoon today in Le Journal shows Couillard on stage raising his hand to push away Jean Charest approaching the microphone,

a good play on the classic Pauline-PKP shove; we should repost that video on this thread

Unionist

ETA: Here's the gif which went viral for a while, if you want to see it - it looked a bit disturbing when I posted it here:

http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/843518285.gif?1394731936

Actually, the original video is better:

[url=http://youtu.be/wOtQlP5cvNc]Marois reminds PKP that he's not the boss, yet[/url]

The key part is all over within the first 10 seconds, but it's fun watching the rest - PKP shuffles around, looking morose like a scolded schoolboy.

 

DaveW

and parody of JdeM:

 Couillard promising to "abolish winter and bring a Mediterranean climate"" to Quebec:

«Tout les autres pays développés sont depuis longtemps passé à autre chose. Regardez les États-Unis, la France, le Japon… ils ont tous adopté des climats plus acceptables depuis longtemps et il est grand temps qu’on rattrape notre retard. Fini les -1000°C, la neige, les tempêtes, le déneigement… on n’a plus les moyens financiers de se payer ca! Savez-vous combien ca coûte l’hiver à chaque année?» - See more at: http://www.journaldemourreal.com/philippe-couillard-promet-dabolir-lhive...

 

«

DaveW

and for a new thread, an undercovered topic: the representation of women in 2014 Quebec election;

two views today, in La Presse and the Globe, with different angles:

Despite 2 highly visible party leaders, too few Quebec women candidates, says FFQ, just 30 per cent:

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2014/201403/24/01-475...

and related:

a mixed picture (in Canada generally) of weak and shortened leadership for women, say researchers: Pauline Marois an outlier among female Premiers in running for a second term:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/redfords-tenure-follows-a-fa...

 

 

Caissa

Do we know how the percentages are breaking in a riding sense?  Which party has the better likelihood of winning more seats even if they loast the popular vote?

Bärlüer

Too Close To Call's model has the following seats projection (including the recent Léger poll): PLQ 64, PQ 54, CAQ 5, QS 2. (Breguet actually thinks that the 64 is slightly too low and should rather be closer to 65-66.)

Three Hundred Eight has a similar seats projection: PLQ 65, PQ 55, CAQ 3, QS 2.

DaveW

worth noting that 63 seats is a bare majority, so 64 or 65 Liberal seats pretty damn close to a minority Govt.

a world of difference between those two results, in one case CAQ gets the balance of power

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Our system is sick when a party of 3 -5 seats can be in a position of power.

zerocarbs

alan smithee wrote:

Our system is sick when a party of 3 -5 seats can be in a position of power.

From living in Europe, my recollection is that Proportional Representation is more likely to produce these situations than our First-Past-The-Post systems. Fringe parties and independents are more likely to earn seats under PR, whereas they'd be wiped out in an FPTP election.

 

DaveW

I dunno, lots of people here want proportional rep, which by definition lets more smaller parties get parliamentary seats;

 and by definition, more small parties would get such leverage (in the extreme, chaos like in Israel)

a proposal:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Group+calls+proportional+representat...

Pogo Pogo's picture

CAQ will get a power but in many ways it deserves it (likewise the QS if it was in a similiar situation).  Voters tend to vote for the top two parties, so third party's are somewhat underrepresented in votes.  Also the governing party will choose the party to work with that most matches its viewpoint, their support in many ways needs to be considered as the sum of both party's support. 

Yes some CAQ representatives will be given roles above their resume, but like doesn't happen every day anywise.

It is different if the smalll party is totally different from the government (I think of some examples in Israel).

 

Unionist

And on we go:

[url=http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/couillard-to-publish-tax-returns-marois-refus... to publish tax returns; Marois refuses to do the same[/url]

 

 

Caissa

Will this turn into a case study of how not to run an election campaign? I haven't been watching too closely from next door in NB but it seems that the PQ frittered away an almost guaranteed majority government albeit there is still time for the tide to turn again.

DaveW

Marois apparently has a talent for grand plans and bad results.

A poster somewhere said her record as minister of education was similarly botched, where a new French language-learning method  drew parents' ire. As minister of health, some considered her a screwup; dunno if the reclassification of nurses was her idea, but there were some memorable PQ goofs in the hospitals.

But people like her are more common in older institutions; in the young, '70s  PQ she might  have been relegated to the second tier (as she was), but as years went on, her tortoise-like progress in the bureaucracy gained her a niche. She became eventually irresistible. The Peter Principle??

Who knows her history better?

cco

She did manage to get rid of religious school boards as education minister, something certain other provinces haven't pulled off yet.

Unionist

DaveW wrote:
As minister of health, some considered her a screwup; dunno if the reclassification of nurses was her idea, but there were some memorable PQ goofs in the hospitals.

In 1997, as health minister, she headed up the implementation of early retirement golden handshakes for 1400 physicians, 4000 nurses, and 1800 LPNs - part of Bouchard's deficit zero I-can-be-Mike-Harris-too campaign. It produced years of shortages (no kidding).

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture
Unionist

That CTV report I cited above was probably wrong (what do you expect, it's in English...). I think Couillard is actually now saying that publication of tax returns - which all candidates agreed to do in 2012 - is far from sufficient. He wants them to make public all holdings, including financial instruments like trusts. Legault has apparently agreed to do so - but not Marois. He's playing on the wiretap evidence at the Charbonneau Commission from 2009 alleging that there was a "deal" between Claude Blanchet (Marois's husband) and the real estate arm of the FTQ solidarity fund, to inject $3 million into one of his business ventures via an "exception" to the normal procedures.

More about Couillard's demand and Marois's reticence here:

[url=http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2014/201403/25/01-475... veut que le couple Blanchet-Marois dévoile ses actifs[/url]

 

cco

Legault (and David) agreed to do so "if all other party leaders agreed", as I read it on the CBC. A smooth move, there. He knows he'll never have to produce any actual records, but in the meantime, he's put the blame entirely on Marois.

Policywonk

DaveW wrote:

I dunno, lots of people here want proportional rep, which by definition lets more smaller parties get parliamentary seats;

 and by definition, more small parties would get such leverage (in the extreme, chaos like in Israel)

a proposal:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Group+calls+proportional+representat...

Israel is a extreme case; most places with PR have a highter legislatad or effective electoral threshold. And if larger parties give fringe parties leverage, that is more of a problem with the political culture, not the electoral system. It would make more sense for the larger parties to work together to ensure the fringe parties do not have that leverage. And neither CAQ or QS are really a fringe parties, they have in excess of or just under 10% support.

scott16

I hope I don't offend anyone but as a unilingual Ontarian how are the Leader's english?

I remember I saw an interview with Aussant from Option Nationale and his english was great.

Policywonk

cco wrote:
She did manage to get rid of religious school boards as education minister, something certain other provinces haven't pulled off yet.

Newfoundland did. Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Alberta are the only ones left with separate school boards.

Unionist

scott16 wrote:

I remember I saw an interview with Aussant from Option Nationale and his english was great.

Aussant is gone - to be a financier in the U.K. lol. His successor, Sol Zanetti, speaks excellent English.

 

DaveW

scott16 wrote:

I hope I don't offend anyone but as a unilingual Ontarian how are the Leader's english?

I remember I saw an interview with Aussant from Option Nationale and his english was great.

Legault I think has a Montreal businessman's good English, Couillard a good professional use too, after being a consultant in among other places Saudi Arabia,;

Marois' English  is pretty poor, she declined an English debate in part because of that, which is fine, and she has never worked in any Anglo milieu .... obviously Wink

cco

Policywonk wrote:

cco wrote:
She did manage to get rid of religious school boards as education minister, something certain other provinces haven't pulled off yet.

Newfoundland did. Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Alberta are the only ones left with separate school boards.


Hence "certain".

Pogo Pogo's picture

Caissa wrote:

Will this turn into a case study of how not to run an election campaign? I haven't been watching too closely from next door in NB but it seems that the PQ frittered away an almost guaranteed majority government albeit there is still time for the tide to turn again.

  Sorry the current text is the BC NDP, you will have to go a long ways to beat our incompetence. 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture
sherpa-finn

The aggregated weekend polling by Leger confirmed a PLQ lead. But when the pollster disaggregated that data day-by-day, the PLQ lead slipped from 12 points on Friday, to 7 on Saturday, and then only 3 by Sunday.

Unclear if that was the PQ getting a positive bounce from the election fix scare, - or perhaps (more likely) voters just taking a second look at the Liberals and saying .... "Hey, wait a minute. Didn't we just turf out those bums .....? "

It ain't over 'til its over.

adma

alan smithee wrote:

Our system is sick when a party of 3 -5 seats can be in a position of power.

 

In Australia, independents were "in a position of power" under Julia Gillard's non-majority.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

adma wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

Our system is sick when a party of 3 -5 seats can be in a position of power.

 

In Australia, independents were "in a position of power" under Julia Gillard's non-majority.

Well,any way you slice it,it's a bullshit system from top to bottom.

From achieving absolute unquestionable power with 39% of the vote to a party of 3 seats holding the balance of power.

Reform is critically urgent....But it ain't happening in my life time.

 

lagatta

As for English, you can hear Françoise David tomorrow morning on Montréal daybreak. In the except I heard, her English was formal but fine. Idem Sol Zanetti (imagine he's trilingual?) and Aussant.

DaveW

corruption creeping in as big issue, but a wash between 2 big parties, say voters;

http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/Marois+switches+theme+Quebec+familie...

Lagatta, got your PM, will reply

bekayne

DaveW wrote:

corruption creeping in as big issue, but a wash between 2 big parties, say voters;

http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/Marois+switches+theme+Quebec+familie...

Marois is so committed to secularism that she is seen here removing chocolate Easter egges & bunnies from public view.

 Marois

 

lagatta

Also, Marois and the lady behind her got a two-for at the hairdresser's.

josh

The lady in the background looks none too pleased at having to enforce strict secularism.

cco

For a little light diversion, here's a spoof of the House of Cards opening sequence done with Montréal time-lapses. Some very pretty footage.

DaveW

Down with Easter! : Marois

Out by Easter! : voters

alan smithee alan smithee's picture
Policywonk

sherpa-finn wrote:

The aggregated weekend polling by Leger confirmed a PLQ lead. But when the pollster disaggregated that data day-by-day, the PLQ lead slipped from 12 points on Friday, to 7 on Saturday, and then only 3 by Sunday.

Unclear if that was the PQ getting a positive bounce from the election fix scare, - or perhaps (more likely) voters just taking a second look at the Liberals and saying .... "Hey, wait a minute. Didn't we just turf out those bums .....? "

It ain't over 'til its over.

And the PQ may be getting flack from the election fix non-scare now. I think the day to day results have a much larger margin of error than the aggregate of the three days. But there is still time for things to change.

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