Quebec election -- final 2 weeks and decision April 7th

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bekayne

sherpa-finn wrote:

A thoughtful piece in La Presse today by Vincent Marissal on the evolution of the PQ into a party focused (fixated?) on identity politics.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/201403/31/01-4752879-le-choc-la-charge-la-charte.php

Interesting but kind of sad, too.

What else do they have these days?

lagatta

Gérald Godin must be rolling over in his far too early grave. I lived in Mercier way back then, when the northeast of Plateau Mont-Royal wasn't gentrified at all.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I remember when housing in the Plateau was affordable.

Now there is no burough in this city that is.

DaveW

So practically, what would that mean?

-- Hold our noses for another PQ minority?

DaveW

some reflections on the CROP/CAQ poll cited above:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

Of course, the CAQ did not provide all of the results to the media. A cursory look at the PDF shows that roughly 16 pages out of about 50 pages are missing, containing about eight of the roughly two dozen questions asked. Now why could that be?

This is the problem with internal polls. If the poll had been bad for the CAQ, we would never have seen it. This might be the first poll ordered by the CAQ in this campaign (they aren't flush with money, after all) but we don't know if that is the case or not. Did the CAQ get some worse polls earlier in the campaign and keep the results to itself? Will the CAQ release any new polls it might order if the results are less favourable? That we have to ask these questions shows just why internal polls are problematic.

That the leaked report is a scan rather than the actual PDF tells the story - those 16 pages had to be removed somehow. But why? Were the results on those 16 pages unfavourable to the CAQ? Were the questions asked politically embarrassing? Did those questions reveal strategy or concerns that the CAQ has? Likely it is a mix of all three, but for our purposes the first is the most important.

It is hard to analyse a poll that is only partially released, with all the good results for the CAQ still in it and all the bad results hidden from view. The poll certainly has plenty of good news for the CAQ, but it likely also has plenty of bad news. So, while we can say that there are some positive signs for the party based on this leaked poll, we do not know if there are also some very negative signs for the party as well. If this was a normal poll and all of the information was available, my analysis might end up being that despite some good news for the CAQ, overall the party still has no chance.

 

Krago

Here's your Laugh-of-the-Day - a new Forum poll!

Slim Liberal majority within reach as PQ continues to slide, latest poll finds

Liberals at 41% support, PQ at 29%, CAQ at 19%, Québec solidaire at 7%

cco

DaveW wrote:

So practically, what would that mean?

-- Hold our noses for another PQ minority?

Yes.

Specifically, I'm hoping for a PQ minority with QS balance of power, Couillard and Legault defeated in their ridings, and they and Marois all step down. Short of a miraculous QS landslide, that is my best-case scenario. They get worse from there, with "landslide Liberal majority" at the very bottom of the pile.

swallow swallow's picture

DaveW wrote:

nutty-sounding poll results favour CAQ, suddenly: and btw, they paid for them ...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/new-quebec-poll-points-to-shift-among-francophone-voters/article17736217/#dashboard/follows/

The poll also found that Mr. Legault’s image had significantly improved since last week’s debate. At the outset of the campaign the PQ struggled after the arrival of media magnate Pierre Karl Péladeau as a star candidate for the PQ. The vote quickly polarized, boosting support for the Liberals who hammered away at the threat the PQ represented for the holding of another referendum on sovereignty. “However, things have changed in a remarkable way since the debate,” the CAQ stated in its analysis.

Francophone voters are split three ways when asked which leader has conducted the best campaign, with Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard holding a slight lead over Mr. Legault and the PQ’s Pauline Marois.

“The increase in support for the CAQ observed in this poll appear credible but like all shifts in public opinion will need to be corroborated by other measures over the coming days,” the CAQ stated in its analysis of the poll.

How prcisely does one poll "francophone voters" only? By phoning them up and having a computer ask them questions in French? Because no anglophones or allophones can understand french? Do Forum's conputer programmes ask people to pinky-swear that they identify as francophone? Does it assess their intention to remin domiciled? Does it mutter "gens d'ici seulement" as people press their keypads? 

What mystifies me is why these things get any ink at all. 

DaveW

I don't think there is anything sinister in identifying survey respondents' background; for example, national polls note  a language breakdown, per cent of French/English respondents;

I guess if someone answers a telephone poll in English, they count as an English respondent, and the pollster moves on ...

Q. anyone do a phone poll?

 

 

lagatta

I've been polled, but always on the internet.

What do they do with those of us who have spoken more than one language since childhood? Not so rare any more.

swallow swallow's picture

I was polled by phone (Forum, in 2012). It let me select English, or continue in French. I continued in French. Does this make me francophone, or too lazy to press a button? 

Nothing sinister, but Forum results being reported as real news is a bit silly, in my view. All the more so when they claim to be able to categorize people by identity categories that are increasingly not how people categorize themselves. 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

cco wrote:
DaveW wrote:

So practically, what would that mean?

-- Hold our noses for another PQ minority?

Yes.

Specifically, I'm hoping for a PQ minority with QS balance of power, Couillard and Legault defeated in their ridings, and they and Marois all step down. Short of a miraculous QS landslide, that is my best-case scenario. They get worse from there, with "landslide Liberal majority" at the very bottom of the pile.

You'd want PKP defeated in HIS riding too, right?  After all, another nightmare scenario would be PKP taking over the PQ leadership after a plurality win and forming a coalition with CAQ.  In that scenario, Peledeau would become Duplessis on bath salts.

lagatta

I most especially want PKP defeated. Ideally by QS. Doubt that will happen.

Policywonk

DaveW wrote:

plus, at 41-29 pc, that it is no slim lead: it would be a landslide!

although it's almost exactly the results in La Presse back in August  2013, when new Lib leader Couillard was first measured against the unpopular PM Marois :

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201308/...

So Marois has gone through almost 8 months of pyrotechnics for no gain....

It's a substantial lead in the popular vote, but not necessarily in seats, as much of the Liberal vote is "wasted" in the largly anglophone constituencies in Montreal. If the PQ vote is going to CAQ, that could mean more Liberal seats outside of Montreal. It is looking more like a Liberal majority than it was though.

lagatta

More on Québec solidaire's strategic vote outlook: http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2014/201403/31/01-475...

There will be a candidates' debate in my neighbourhood this evening, organized by La Coalition contre la pauvreté and Occupons le coeur de l'île (the "casseroles" in Villeray and Petite-Patrie) journalderosemont.com/Elections-provinciales/2014-03-27/article-3666564/Debat-electoral-dans-Gouin/1

https://www.facebook.com/events/386650851476942/ I hope to be able to go. Note the absence of the Liberal candidate.

Caissa

Does anyone on the ground in Quebec care to offer some predictions or has this election just been too volatile?

DaveW

Policywonk wrote:

DaveW wrote:

plus, at 41-29 pc, that it is no slim lead: it would be a landslide!

although it's almost exactly the results in La Presse back in August  2013, when new Lib leader Couillard was first measured against the unpopular PM Marois :

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201308/...

So Marois has gone through almost 8 months of pyrotechnics for no gain....

It's a substantial lead in the popular vote, but not necessarily in seats, as much of the Liberal vote is "wasted" in the largly anglophone constituencies in Montreal. If the PQ vote is going to CAQ, that could mean more Liberal seats outside of Montreal. It is looking more like a Liberal majority than it was though.

That is all calculated into any projection, P.W.:

the figure of 43 per cent of the French vote is usually cited as the majority number for PQ, hence what party needs/aims for;

in the latest Forum poll (for what that pollster's worth), the PQ were drawing just 36 per cent of francophone vote; other QC polls cluster around 38 per cent.

(Just for historical perspective, on re-election in spring 1981, Levesque's PQ got over 60 per cent of the French vote.)

So realistically they are clinging to hopes for a minority Govt right now, and frankly, the possibility of a wipeout -- i.e. 40-something seats and Opposition status is quite real.

 

 

 

DaveW

 at 41-29 pc, that it is no slim lead: it would be a landslide!

although it's almost exactly the results in La Presse back in August  2013, when new Lib leader Couillard was first measured against the unpopular PM Marois :

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201308/...

So Marois has gone through almost 8 months of pyrotechnics for no gain....

 

 

 

DaveW

Caissa wrote:

Does anyone on the ground in Quebec care to offer some predictions or has this election just been too volatile?

Liberal win, odds favour majority, 65 seats-plus;

 calling a minority would like trying to thread the needle, too precise, although 308 comes close, calling for 64 Libs (63 seats is bare majority):

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

Unionist

Caissa wrote:

Does anyone on the ground in Quebec care to offer some predictions or has this election just been too volatile?

You want predictions, when the really huge swing issues haven't even surfaced yet!?

No but seriously, I have seat and vote predictions which I've placed in a sealed envelope, to be opened and revealed here next Tuesday.

Would anyone care to predict what's in my envelope?

 

bekayne

Unionist wrote:

Would anyone care to predict what's in my envelope?

A piece of paper?

cco

Barrette's $1.2M severance cheque raises eyebrows

Does anybody know what happened with Barrette's trial for illegal lobbying? I can't find anything more recent than January, though the trial should be over by now. It's conspicuously absent from reporting on him as a candidate, so much so that I initially thought it was a different Gaétan Barrette.

Pogo Pogo's picture

bekayne wrote:

Unionist wrote:

Would anyone care to predict what's in my envelope?

A piece of paper?

And a pen?

Caissa

If you want to mail (PM) that envelope to me Unioinist, I would hold it in confidence until next Tuesday?  Coverage of the election has been almost non-existent next door in NB.

Unionist

Pogo wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Unionist wrote:

Would anyone care to predict what's in my envelope?

A piece of paper?

And a pen?

LOL thanks for the laugh!

Actually, it's a USB drive.

Formatted.

 

josh
Aristotleded24

Pogo wrote:
bekayne wrote:
Unionist wrote:

Would anyone care to predict what's in my envelope?

A piece of paper?

And a pen?

Here's an iron-clad prediction that will not fail: Quebeckers will go to the polls on Monday April 7, 2014, to elect a new government.

lagatta

I went to the polls on Monday!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Was anybody there?

DaveW

participation is very high so far, with I think 17 per cent of the electorate already voting

DaveW

Caissa wrote:

Does anyone on the ground in Quebec care to offer some predictions or has this election just been too volatile?

I made my final prediction above,

but I should add that I do not think the election has been that "volatile"; the PQ started with close to 40 per cent support and has steadily slid downward to closer to 30 per cent

like a child in a playground, just sliding down

that simple

lagatta

Yes, there were plenty of people, but I didn't have to wait long. Over 1 million people here have voted already.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

New poll

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/exclusive-ctv-poll-liberals-lead-grows-1.1757927

The only exciting part is a surge for QS

lagatta

Yes, also note that 3% think the Green leader would make the best Premier. The Quebec Greens have moved much closer to QS in social policy, declaring themselves ecosocialists.

This must have something to do with the very nasty attacks by some people (presumably close to the PQ, probably more hardline nationalists such as the Vigile crew) against QS. Oh, the absurd claim that QS would foster Islamic fundamentalism here (Islamic fundamentalists, just like Christian, Jewish, Hindu and other religious fundamentalists, are rarely on the left), and the usual redbaiting, based on the fact that Françoise David "voted against the yes" in 1980 - this is presented as a position held "not long ago". Huh? I know I'm an old fartess (though younger than Françoise), but fuck, I can count.Moreover, I doubt very much her group were "against" the yes - I believe they abstained or spoiled their ballots.

She was in a Maoist group - Maoist groups were huge here - and has never denied it or feigned shame about it. Like many of us youthful radicals, she has evolved, while remaining true to her fundamental commitment.

I hate the Québec liberals though. They are very, very sleazy to put it mildly. I could say more, but don't know what we are allowed to say without compromising rabble and babble.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Today on my way home,Marguerite Blais was in the metro (Place St-Henri) handing people pamphlets and trying to engage conversation.

She didn't approach me.

I don't know if I should be insulted or complimented.

bekayne

New Ipsos poll

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/quebec-liberals-widen-lead-over-pq-as-ele...

Lib    even

PQ    -4

QS    +3

CAQ  +3

NorthReport

It would be great to see QS pick up a few more seats. Smile

lagatta

I'd just love that. Now I live in Gouin, but I lived for many years in Laurier-Dorion (i.e. a few minutes' walk north of where I live now). I do try not to make myself unhappy by too much optimism.

DaveW

Bombshell: IPSOS poll has PQ in freefall, QS @ 13 pc,

pls post, somebody

bekayne
alan smithee alan smithee's picture

So a Sun News bottom feeder endorses the PQ.

A party involved with their boss....Quelle surprise...Fuckin' weasel.

jerrym

DaveW wrote:

Bombshell: IPSOS poll has PQ in freefall, QS @ 13 pc,

pls post, somebody

This is the CTV poll quoted above but if you want to look at it on the Ipsos website here is the connection

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6461

Xelandre Xelandre's picture

lagatta wrote:

based on the fact that Françoise David "voted against the yes" in 1980

"against the yes" is not the same as "no".

The Maoists advocated cancellation of the ballots, and the movement fell apart virtually overnight after May 20th.

Krago

This is astounding.

 

From the Ipsos poll, voters between 18 and 34 years of age:

 

Lib - 39%

QS - 23%

CAQ - 18%

PQ - 16%

lagatta

Xelandre, you are right on both counts.

By the way, I've responded to your private message; I no longer receive any notification on rabble about private messages for Gord knows what reason, but now you seem to have been able to send me a message to my own e-mail. Obviously I'll ask around, and get back to you. I am extremely tired after this hellish winter (now: swollen ankle).

I did get out on my bicycle though!!!!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

DaveW wrote:

Bombshell: IPSOS poll has PQ in freefall, QS @ 13 pc,

pls post, somebody

maybe this will bethe tipping point for a QS breakthrough...best-case scenario, left-sovereigntists look at that poll and switch to QS because a PQ loss is now certain...and left-federalists break from the PLQ to do the same, because they now know there won't be a referendum for at least another four years.

Can't blame a person for dreaming.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Krago wrote:

This is astounding.

 

From the Ipsos poll, voters between 18 and 34 years of age:

 

Lib - 39%

QS - 23%

CAQ - 18%

PQ - 16%

Nice that  QS has that evel of youth support-Weird that the PLQ youth support would be that high.  It's not like they offer young people anything in their current program.

Pogo Pogo's picture

lagatta wrote:

 for Gord knows what reason,

Awesome

Wilf Day
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

 

lagatta wrote:

 for Gord knows what reason,

 

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