quebec election predictions (you know you want to)

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love is free love is free's picture
quebec election predictions (you know you want to)

not sure how man others want to test their skills, but i decided to go with brain instead of gut, here is my best prediction:

vote share: pq 34, caq 32, plq 25, qs 7, other 2

seats: pq 61, caq 31, plq 31, qs 2

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

vote share:

PQ: 32%

CAQ: 30%

PLQ: 26%

QS: 8%

ON: 1%

PVQ: 1%

Other: 1%

 

Seat count:

PQ:61

CAQ: 30

PLQ: 31

QS: 2

ON: 1

(I'm predicting the riding boundaries will give the PLQ a higher seat count than its vote share would warrant, and the CAQ a somewhat lower one).

(I also predict you'll see some party splits right after the vote...I'm guessing Marois would prefer to try to get 3 or 4 Caquistes to cross over than give ANYTHING to QS or ON).

Charest will lose in Sherbrooke...but I won't guess as to whom.

 

David Young

P.Q.    - 59

C.A.Q. - 32

P.L.Q.  - 30

Q.S.    -   4

 

TheNewTeddy

Hope it's okay for me to post a link here, but I run an election projection website

http://riding-by-riding.blogspot.ca/

with projections and maps and riding by riding numbers for the Quebec election. 

knownothing knownothing's picture

PQ - 62

PLQ - 31

CAQ - 26

QS - 5

ON - 1

josh

PQ  33

PLQ 30

CAQ 27

QS    7

 

PQ  63

PLQ 36

CAQ 24

QS    2

 

Ippurigakko

popular voters

PQ 33%
CAQ 31%
PLQ 25%
QS 7%
PVQ 2%
ON 1%
OTH 1%

seat

PQ 58
CAQ 36
PLQ  29
QS 2

bouchecl

Here goes:

Vote share: 36% PQ, 27% PLQ, 26% CAQ, 6% QS, 2% ON, 2% PVQ, 1% OTH

Seats: 68 PQ, 35 PLQ, 20 CAQ, 1 QS, 1 ON

Turnout: 68%

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I find it kind of depressing that no one predicts more than 5 seats for QS, especially considering the alternatives.

Ippurigakko

Forum polls said:

past QS voter change to PQ 24%, CAQ 13%, PLQ 5% and they going vote QS only 52%
past PQ going to vote PQ 70%, then LPQ going to PLQ 63% and ADQ going to CAQ 57%

and most NDP goes to CAQ like 52% and QS 57% in 4 or 5 months ago.

DaveW

ah, you are dodging the Official Opposition prediction with a tie!

Yeah, but I agree that a real three-way race (cf. British election 2005) in a parliamentary system built for two parties ends up quite unbalanced:

in 2005 the UK Liberal Dems, recall, got 22 per cent of votes cast, but less than 10 per cent of the seats in Parliament:

.............  Labour/ Tories/ Liberals

Seats won    355^ 198 62

Seat change decrease47* increase33* increase11*

Popular vote 9,552,436; 8,784,915; 5,985,454

Percentage 35.2% 32.4% 22.0%

Hence, if the Quebec Liberals do fall very low today, below 25 per cent, they might see the bottom fall out completely; the CAQ could get an unexpected bounce in 3-way races vs PQ....

 

So, I guess: 58 seats PQ, CAQ 37, Libs 28, 2 QS,

 

Bärlüer

Boom Boom wrote:

I find it kind of depressing that no one predicts more than 5 seats for QS, especially considering the alternatives.

Here's how I see it re: QS seats. Like everyone else, I'm pretty confident about winning Mercier and Gouin.

Next in line is Laurier-Dorion. This is a 3-way race between PQ, PLQ and QS. I'd say the chances of QS winning that seat are at something like 40%.

Next in line is Ste-Marie-St-Jacques. Race between the PQ and QS. I'd say 20% chances of QS winning that seat.

Forget about winning the others (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Outremont, Taschereau). (This isn't to diss the very good work done by the candidates and volunteers in these ridings, of course. And I hope we can raise our vote count as high as possible.)

Bärlüer

And I'd tend to predict a PQ majority, what with the movement favorable to the PQ in the 450 in the last polls (and not even taking into account the latest EKOS and Forum polls).

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

And therein lies the longstanding historic problem with majority government, both federally and provincially: the elected leader of a majority government doesn't have to pay attention to the Opposition at all, and, indeed, the leader of a majority can buy votes by showering the electorate with goodies - something the Opposition has no power to do.

Mr.Tea

Here's my prediction: I'm about to have a lot of new neighbours in Toronto.

Unionist

Mr.Tea wrote:

Here's my prediction: I'm about to have a lot of new neighbours in Toronto.

Hope your move goes well!

JeffWells

My gut feeling is the CAQ vote is softening somewhat and the Liberals will perform better than expected.

 

vote share:

PQ: 33%

PLQ: 30%

CAQ: 25%

QS: 9%

Other: 3%

 

Seat count:

PQ: 62

PLQ: 35

CAQ 25

QS: 3

 

DaveW

Mr.Tea wrote:

Here's my prediction: I'm about to have a lot of new neighbours in Toronto.

gawd, stalest old Anglo take imaginable Foot in mouth

you know, of course, that over the last 36 years the PQ has been in power for about half, 18 years,

and that over that whole period, reports Statistics Canada, the population of Quebec has bounced upward by about 2 million people ...

no, didn't think so

Mr.Tea

And during that time, Quebec has never been led by anyone as openly hostile towards Anglophones or xenophobic and dripping with contempt towards religious minorities as Pauline Marois.

DaveW

sounds crazy, but you never know: Liberal minority??

http://blogs.montrealgazette.com/2012/09/03/dont-count-the-liberals-out-yet-in-the-quebec-election/

 

.... people seem not to have learned a lesson from Alberta, or to have forgotten it. They’ve been leaning toward the assumption, based on the final polls of the campaign, that Tuesday’s Quebec election comes down to a question of whether the PQ government that will be elected will have a majority in the National Assembly.

It could very well turn out that way. But polling for the last survey of the campaign by Léger Marketing for the QMI news agency, was completed last Friday, four days before the vote. That’s time for Alberta-like late changes in voter intentions.

(Update: Pollster Jean-Marc Léger noted in Le Journal de Montréal Tuesday that in his firm’s final poll, an “enormous” 28 per cent of voters said they could still change their minds. The poll suggested that the PQ vote was relatively solid, but CAQ support was soft.)

And even based on the final published poll results, there’s one Quebec expert on political polling who gives the Liberals a chance of eking out a minority government on Tuesday.

On her blog Ah! les sondages, Claire Durand of the Université de Montréal proposed three different hypotheses for distributing so-called “undecided” votes among the parties.

The first two, the second of which, Durand tweeted, has a “very good track record,”would produce a PQ minority government with the Liberals forming the official opposition and the CAQ holding the balance of power.

 

DaveW

sure it has: Bernard Landry;

net Quebec migration gain/loss: nil

you are confusing several issues, but don't worry, it's pretty common among 2nd-hand observers

 

Unionist

Mr.Tea wrote:

And during that time, Quebec has never been led by anyone as openly hostile towards Anglophones or xenophobic and dripping with contempt towards religious minorities as Pauline Marois.

What about Parizeau? Wasn't he another fascist war criminal anti-semitic racist ethnic-cleansing monster,worse than Marois? Would you mind getting your script straight before the performance begins?? I can give you the mailing address if you've lost it.

ETA: Sorry, I forgot to mention - the preceding was extreme sarcasm, directed at comments that richly merit it.

Mr.Tea

What "script" are you referring to?

Parizeau was bad too. As far as I know, he never actually wanted the government to tell you what religious symbols you could wear.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I'm watching P&P, and they have a poll that shows 60% of respondents don't think a PQ victory will spark a national unity crisis. I thought it would be closer to 70%, myself.

ygtbk

Mr.Tea wrote:

And during that time, Quebec has never been led by anyone as openly hostile towards Anglophones or xenophobic and dripping with contempt towards religious minorities as Pauline Marois.

You seem to be assuming that's a bug. I'm pretty sure it's supposed to be a feature.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Unionist wrote:

Mr.Tea wrote:

And during that time, Quebec has never been led by anyone as openly hostile towards Anglophones or xenophobic and dripping with contempt towards religious minorities as Pauline Marois.

What about Parizeau? Wasn't he another fascist war criminal anti-semitic racist ethnic-cleansing monster,worse than Marois? Would you mind getting your script straight before the performance begins?? I can give you the mailing address if you've lost it.

ETA: Sorry, I forgot to mention - the preceding was extreme sarcasm, directed at comments that richly merit it.

OK...the comments directed towards Marois are inflammatory overkill...but Parizeau really IS, personally, a bigoted boozehound.  He really DID make that comment about "the ethnics".  And he'd have received the same well-deserved grief over that if he'd been a PLQ premier blaming "the ethnics" for a "OUI" victory.  Parizeau was and is a disgrace to the sovereigntist cause. 

love is free love is free's picture

"money and the ethnic vote" is what he said. 

DaveW

back on the subject:

nobody above guessed the seat totals remotely correctly, although a couple of us (ahem) had the PQ seats in the 50s, clear minority territory, but usually with the CAQ as Opposition...

 

as outgoing PM Charest said: "encore une fois on a fait mentir les sondages" ....

Well, they did.

josh

Liberals outpeformed the poll numbers.  As, apparently, they historically tend to do.

Stockholm

Except that in the 2007 and 2008 elections there was no evidence of the Quebec Liberals doing better than the polls predicted. In fact in 2007 the PLQ did WORSE than the average of the final polls.

Ippurigakko

I wonder why 2008 was only one year from 2007? is it supposed 4 or 5 years? like Stephen harper  ignore the set date or what?

DaveW

Stockholm wrote:
Except that in the 2007 and 2008 elections there was no evidence of the Quebec Liberals doing better than the polls predicted. In fact in 2007 the PLQ did WORSE than the average of the final polls.

no, agreed, and in the polemic with pollster Leger 2 weeks ago, the latter pointed out that Charest had been nailed in both those elections, within 2 pts of Libs final score;

the other interesting thing about the 2007-2008 pair of elections was of course the rise and fall of the PQ (2007), then of the ADQ (2008), each of which appeared to be on the ropes at one point, but with the CAQ carrying the ADQ electoral space in 2012, there is still a three-horse race in Quebec ...

Unionist

Ippurigakko wrote:

I wonder why 2008 was only one year from 2007? is it supposed 4 or 5 years? like Stephen harper  ignore the set date or what?

Charest had a minority in 2007, and called the election in 2008 because he thought he could get a majority. He didn't have to... wasn't defeated on a confidence vote or anything like that. In fact, he copied what Harper had just done federally. Charest won his majority, while Harper had to wait till 2011.

And no, there's no "fixed date" legislation in Québec to ignore as Harper did federally. But don't be surprised if the PQ and CAQ agree to push that through as part of trying to keep the minority government alive.

And Ken Burch, I'm certainly not denying the xenophobic features of Marois, Parizeau, et al. What gets me is the ignorant rhetorical overkill that paints this as the essential feature of Québec politics. And of course, paints all the "federalists" as being the lovers of Muslims and immigrants and indigenous folks and Asians and Jews... It's the big lie technique, and when it comes from outside Québec (as in some posts above), it needs to be countered with ridicule and sarcasm, then get back on track.

 

Brachina

For the record I've never claimed QS (except against poor beavers :p) was xenophobic, just the PQ.

6079_Smith_W

@ Unionist

Regarding your comment to Ken Burch, I don't deny that some people accusing the PQ might see themselves that way. But I don't think that statement can be made across the board. And more importantly, as I have said before, I don't think it is a valid deflection of legitimate criticism.

I think we can agree there is xenophobia in all dominant cultures, and to some degree in all political movements. So with the understanding that we shouldn't try to play one off against the other, surely it is up for discussion and criticism. Perhaps someone has come right out and said the Liberals and federalists aren't like that, but I must have missed it.

But beyond any argument for sovreignty (which is perfectly valid) Marois used and continues to use "us and them" arguments which I think are fair game for discussion.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I predict Quebec will have an election on Sept 4th, and 125 people will win seats in the National Assembly. 

adma

Ken Burch wrote:

I predict Quebec will have an election on Sept 4th, and 125 people will win seats in the National Assembly. 

 

And I'd be too cautious even for that; after all, there's always the possibility of a candidate dying on the campaign trail and nullifying at least one race until a make-up byelection is held...