Quebec polls and parties 2014

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alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Union buster Legault quote ; De plus, c’est un gars de principes et un ardent défenseur du droit des travailleurs.

Legault is one sick fuck.

lagatta

Legault is indeed a sick fuck, but that is a satirical site. Good portrait of Rambo, though.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Embarassed

Unionist

Hahaha sorry folks, couldn't resist. Someone posted that on Rambo's Facebook page. You should have heard his reaction! You could almost feel the love.

Brachina

lagatta wrote:

alan, you are correct. Bread and circuses. Mayor Lebeaume has no concern for the rich heritage of Québec City. Like another heritage city, Halifax, it is becoming ringed with the most deplorable sprawl, and historic buildings have been pulled down.

Legault is disgusting. He is profiting from the Charbonneau commission inquiry on corruption and collusion in the construction industry to smear and attempt to cripple the trade union movement here. Mendacious indeed, as "business unions" like Rambo Gauthier's North Shore heavy equipment operators' local are absolutely uninterested in funding social or "political" causes - Legault explicitly mentioned the student movement; he isn't talking partisan politics, which already has strict oversight here, in terms of labour or business funding.

Problem is, except for the hope that QS could pick up a few seats - which is not at all certain, there is nothing to hope for from these elections. We must not forget how right wing and tainted by corruption the Québec Liberals are either. If QS weren't running, I think I'd simply spoil my ballot.

 

 Wow what a mess. Now do you see why Mulcair refuses to take sides in this election and wants a Quebec NDP in the next one.

Unionist

Brachina wrote:

 Wow what a mess. Now do you see why Mulcair refuses to take sides in this election and wants a Quebec NDP in the next one.

No. But since he's the Great Leader, we'll just do whatever he wants. Though I don't really understand why he was too chicken to field candidates this time. Doesn't care enough, or what?

 

CanadaOrangeCat

If you want to punish the Liberals, vote PQ. If you want to punish the PQ, vote QS.

DaveW

good discussions of PKP conflict of interest:

http://blogues.radio-canada.ca/auger/2014/03/11/pkp-etrange-notion-confl...

and effect of PKP recruitment on PQ:

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/402228/Elections2014-l-effet-pkp

Il y aura aussi un effet Péladeau sur le Parti québécois, où il est précédé par sa vision très peu sociale-démocrate et par une réputation de pourfendeur des syndicats. Comme il n’est pas homme à mettre ses convictions au vestiaire, son arrivée entraînera des repositionnements sur le plan des politiques économiques. Le spectre des idées s’élargira, rendant plus difficiles les consensus. Habitué qu’il est à détenir tous les pouvoirs, peu importe ce qu’en pensent les actionnaires et le conseil d’administration, participer à la recherche de consensus sera un défi pour lui, tout comme se plier aux règles de gouvernance stricte de l’administration gouvernementale.

  Il est une règle que, d’emblée, ses adversaires veulent lui imposer. Ils lui demandent de se départir de toutes ses actions pour assurer qu’il ne puisse exercer une influence sur son empire médiatique. Alors qu’il a déjà accepté de mettre tous ses avoirs dans une fiducie sans droits de regard, ce serait créer une deuxième muraille de Chine. Cela ne serait pas sans soulever d’autres enjeux. À qui vendre Québecor ? À la Caisse de dépôt ? Non. À des intérêts hors Québec ? Ce n’est pas souhaitable. Il reviendra au commissaire à l’éthique de lui imposer des exigences suivant les règles qui valent pour tous à l’Assemblée nationale.

Unionist

I think it's time to stop talking about PKP. It's a diversion and a trap. Look at who just signed an open letter having a joint orgasm about how wonderful PKP's jump to the PQ is:

Quote:
Lise Payette
Louise Harel
Lisette Lapointe
Viviane Barbot
Jacques Parizeau
Bernard Landry
Jean Garon
Jean Doré
Jean-Paul L'Allier
Gérald Larose
Marc Laviolette
Gilles Duceppe

Note that that includes two ex-leaders of the biggest trade union federation in Québec.

All these individuals are now on my "never trust" list.

Having said that, we should focus on more important questions. Austerity. Xenophobia. The attacks on working people and the poor and youth (students & others). And on women (increasing child care rates for no reason whatsoever). And getting rid of CAQ as soon as possible.

At least, that's how I feel right now.

 

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

No PQ,no CAQ....Who's the lesser of the 3 evils?..PLQ?

I have to admit,this election has stumped me and I'll re-iterate,democracy in Québec is officially dead.

Welcome to Harperland,P.Q.

Stephen King couldn't write a more chilling script.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Doesn't PKP provide a great opportunity to talk about the issues?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I'd say that this fiasco would mobilize the left and create some sort of action but with the draconian protest laws,the lobsters are finally in the pot and we're cooked.

 

lagatta

RCM Mayor Jean Doré was also on the CSN legal staff. I got the same missive from another "left péquiste" friend... he's a retired journalist. Handslap to head. No point in arguing. They say we are sectarian and against PKP because he's a very successful businessman. That isn't the point at all. I feel about PKP as I'd feel about a racist or fascist thug, a serial rapist or, eschewing cases of direct violence, a creep who ruined the lives of countless trusting pensioners getting them to invest their life savings in some useless portfolio (in Québec, the infamous offenders are named Vincent Lacroix and Earl Jones). Outside the purview of civil society.

Aristotleded24

Unionist wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 Wow what a mess. Now do you see why Mulcair refuses to take sides in this election and wants a Quebec NDP in the next one.

No. But since he's the Great Leader, we'll just do whatever he wants. Though I don't really understand why he was too chicken to field candidates this time. Doesn't care enough, or what?

Maybe the fact that the party has only just been officially in existence for a few months has something to do with it? I'm sure he would have loved to field candidates in time for this election, but you don't just snap your fingers and have all your candidates lined up, and he backed off the project because Marois had a majority and it's very difficult to organize in those uncertain circumstances. Instead, he refocused his energy at defeating Harper in the rest of the country.

Unionist

Ok, next time when I'm being sarcastic, I'll try to remember to say: "I'm being sarcastic!"

lagatta

Ok, we can have a VERY tacky and rétro laugh: "Samedi soir chez la grosse Mado", about a very sleazy dive-bar cabaret in 60s Mtl, and Péladeau (père):

"Oh pelai, pela, péladeau, o pelai, pela, péladeau, il vend des journaux et n'est pas beau!" (Tony Roman) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wUbVKKNGD4

This is sort of like a scene from a vintage Michel Tremblay play.

sherpa-finn

I must admit that I am thunderstruck by the extent to which progressive leaders in the PQ have rallied around PKP and Marois.  Something very signifcant is afoot, and I have no idea what.

The predominant thinking in the anglo-twitterverse seems to be that the boomer generation leaders of the nationalist camp have concluded that they need to go "all in" this election to secure that electoral majority and prepare for one 'final' referendum.

I personally find that hard to believe - the poll numbers do not look compelling for a PQ election win, never mind a refendum. But I  do not have a credible alternative explanation ... the thought of Larose, Duceppe, Harel and colleagues snuggling up to Peladeau is quite beyond  belief.

Brachina

Unionist wrote:

Ok, next time when I'm being sarcastic, I'll try to remember to say: "I'm being sarcastic!"

 

 People should do what I do and always assume your being sarcastic and/or snarky.

 

 Anyways the Bloc will be the ones to pay for this, Mulcair may not be getting invovled in the election now, but that doesn't mean he's not going to milk PKP later during the federal election. That's assuming thier is a Bloc by then, I think that depends on how this election goes.

Brachina

Unionist wrote:

Ok, next time when I'm being sarcastic, I'll try to remember to say: "I'm being sarcastic!"

 

 People should do what I do and always assume your being sarcastic and/or snarky.

 

 Anyways the Bloc will be the ones to pay for this, Mulcair may not be getting invovled in the election now, but that doesn't mean he's not going to milk PKP later during the federal election. That's assuming thier is a Bloc by then, I think that depends on how this election goes.

DaveW

Assuming also that PKP is still around... I don't, no one has voted yet in St Jerome

swallow

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2014/201403/11/01-474...

Keep the medical clinics open so that people don't need to swamp the emergency rooms and camp out for 8 hours. Now there's a real policy. 

So disappointed in the PQ left - I guess a right-wing republic with its social fabric torn to shreds is better than a scrap of social justice for many of them. Higher-cost daycare, the health tax, cuts to education, subsidies for big oil, selling the country to Quebecor - all fine, apparently. 

Brachina

DaveW wrote:

Assuming also that PKP is still around... I don't, no one has voted yet in St Jerome

 

 Even if PKP loses the Bloc has already kissed his ass, so the damage will have been done.

lagatta

Yes, indeed, QS and the Libs both proposed 24h clinics instead of relying solely on the emergencies - which isn't just inadequate, but ridiculous in monetary terms. But QS wants to build in the existing public CLSC network, and what the Libs propose definitely involves private medicine, though I don't believe they put that aspect front and centre.

bekayne

sherpa-finn wrote:

I must admit that I am thunderstruck by the extent to which progressive leaders in the PQ have rallied around PKP and Marois.  Something very signifcant is afoot, and I have no idea what.

Lust for power?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

swallow wrote:

So disappointed in the PQ left - I guess a right-wing republic with its social fabric torn to shreds is better than a scrap of social justice for many of them. Higher-cost daycare, the health tax, cuts to education, subsidies for big oil, selling the country to Quebecor - all fine, apparently. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxNEiZhpinY

CanadaOrangeCat

The Liberals have won in areas like Laurier Dorion because of the split between the left and the nationalist vote. Marois has run Pierre Céré who was a spokesperson for the unemployed, in a fairly obvious attempt to gain left wing votes in the area.

PKP is the diametric opposite of what you would want to do if you are going to placate the Left. Isn't Marois wasting votes going to the Right? I would have thought going to the Left would remove Liberals from areas like this. The anger at the Liberals is still real.

Nonetheless it looks like that the syndicalist power structure in Quebec has decided to back Marois. Who will eventually get the knife? The unions, of course. If the nationalist vote has cleared the decks of the Quebec Liberals and the CAQ, there will be room for a left-right split within it. In the long term, this is a much bigger opportunity for QS than a NPDQ. 

Aristotleded24

Before reading too much into polls suggesting a tie between the Liberals and the PQ,

Remember that a great deal of Liberal votes are wasted in Montreal and the Ottawa Valley, and the PQ traditionally has a more efficient vote. Even if the Liberals have higher popular support, the PQ could still win, as happened in 1998.

DaveW

yes, all that is standard analysis in QC polling; the PQ French vote needs to be much higher to counterbalance minority Liberals

But a party with 43 pc of the French vote can gain a majority province-wide, with no Anglo votes, balancing  the tilt of Anglo ridings; the PQ has been bobbing up and down around the 43 pc level for a few months, peaking at 45 pc, and sinking more recently to about 41 pc. I think that level of support will continue to sink, making them vulnerable to another minority and even defeat by a Liberal minority, given the 2-way PQ/Liberal polarization that is coming.

it is also standard analysis in QC polling that the Liberal vote is underrepresented in pre-vote polls, and often surprises on election day; this happened in Sept. 2012, when many many people were writing off the Charest Liberals completely, and serious projections had them sinking to  just 39 seats; they finished with 51 seats, a very respectable total in a bid for 4th term

in any case, the best poll analyses are still at the 308 site, even though they themselves have made the above forecasting mistakes, despite all their caution in interpreting things:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

As for my opinion: I think it will be a Liberal minority.

The PKP thing is so polarizing, and potentially such a magnet for gaffes of all kinds, that the PQ downside and PLQ upside will complement each other by late March.

Goodbye, Pauline Cry

lagatta

Dave, I frankly have no idea. But I suspect non-francophones will turn out en masse. Alas, I'm afraid that even a significant number of progressive anglos and allos will vote for the (yecch) Libs. Not that I'd expect a MAJORITY non-francophone riding to go QS, but a riding such as Laurier-Dorion could.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I still believe the PQ has all the momentum and still has a chance to get a majority.

I don't think we have seen the last of Pauline Poutine.

lagatta

Some of us (including Gérald Larose and Pierre Paquette, in the day) used to chant:

Parti Québécois, parti bourgeois!

Now I'm trying to think of something (in French) that rhymes with Parti Québécor.

Funny, while "Québécois" suggests lots of French rhymes and no real English ones, I can only think of English ones for "Québécor". Remember that it is also a matter of tonic stress. For example, "fort" rhymes with Québécor, but it could suggest positive strength ("pour un Québéc plus fort") rather than a Québec that is only for the mighty and the strong.

Unionist

lagatta wrote:

Now I'm trying to think of something (in French) that rhymes with Parti Québécor.

How about: "Parti Québécor, crissons-les dehors!"

Or, a little ruder, but might chant better: "Câ-liss-ons-les dehors!"

You know, like:

12, 123, 123, 123!

"Par-ti, Qué-bé-cor, câ-liss-ons, les-de-hors!"

Not recommending. Just replying to your question.

Innocent

 

lagatta

Oh, I most certainly want them to be rude.

Unionist

lagatta wrote:

Oh, I most certainly want them to be rude.

So... did you like it?

How about:

Hostie, quel parti! Péladeau, au poteau!

 

cco

AABB isn't the best rhyme scheme for protest chants. As people drift in and out, it just turns into a mush of people shouting either AA or BB.

That said, it has promise. A bit of reworking in the studio and we'll have a good slogan.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Fuck le Parti Québécois....Simple and to the point.

Unionist

cco wrote:

AABB isn't the best rhyme scheme for protest chants. As people drift in and out, it just turns into a mush of people shouting either AA or BB.

 

Oh, I agree, I just threw that in as a freebie. I'm still pushing for Parti Québécor etc.!

lagatta

Please read our Karl on Parl's excellent analysis of the qualitative shift - no longer just a rightward drift - of the PQ, with the PKP clusterbomb (or clusterfuck).

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/karl-nerenberg/2014/03/pierre-karl-p%C3%...

And Nora Loreto's ongoing account of the campaign:

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/nora-loreto/2014/03/qu%C3%A9bec-election...

Here's hoping Nora is right about the labour movement...

DaveW

I was recycling the weekend newspapers today, and noted that they now seem to be historical remnants -- the issues they were headlining have disappeared from view : Poof!

No one now expects a long, dreary soul-busting debate about the draft charter to dominate the campaign , and frankly PKP has never mentioned that;

it is as if suddenly TV magnate PKP "changed channels" for the whole campaign, introducing the whole State-private sector elites debate that is overdue in Quebec.

My difference with posters above is that I think this is to the PQ's disadvantage, esp. with PKP pushing forward the referendum debate, which makes this  a pre-referendum, and subject to the usual 60-40 Non polarization.

Again, advantage Liberals.

Brachina

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/...

 

 Pauline needs to stop telling Quebecers fairy tales about what seperating from Canada will be like. Canada could very well say no to both bank of Canada seats, tolls, and so on. The truth is the roc would be bitter, hurt, and angery and would not be open to cooperation on much of anything and would likely demand various regions and FNs be given the right to seperate from Quebec.

scott16

can anyone from quebec with knowledge of QC politics tell me PKP's chances in St. Jerome?

Also What are some bellwether ridings in QC?

CanadaOrangeCat

"Just because we work for Quebecor media under our excellent former boss PKP, and he is joining the wonderful business-friendly Parti Quebecois does not mean that I cannot continue to be a free-market Conservative, and it does not in any way imply any of our esteemed publications are biased. Now pay your internet bill or we will cut you off."

DaveW
Brachina

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/on-secession-quebeckers-are-no...

 

 I'm not a big Jeffery Simpson fan, but he makes some good points, especially about a happy QS.

 But I'll some one else who is undoubtedly happy about PKP running for the PQ, Tom Mulcair.

sherpa-finn

scott16 asked: can anyone from quebec with knowledge of QC politics tell me PKP's chances in St. Jerome?

That riding (St Jerome, previously Prevost) was PQ for years and years before it went CAQ in the last election.  So given a soft CAQ vote today and the fact that CAQ voters tend to be more conservative (indeed CAQ would have seemed a more 'natural' political home for PKP than the PQ) I would guess from afar that it would be highly winnable for PKP and the PQ. 

DaveW

... or not.

Local voters do not necessarily like parachutes. Proven many many times.

DaveW

scott16 wrote:

can anyone from quebec with knowledge of QC politics tell me PKP's chances in St. Jerome?

Also What are some bellwether ridings in QC?

re St Jerome:

north of Montreal there is an area now known as the 450 region for the regional phone code, and it isnow  growing rapidly past historic suburb Laval; more new suburbs, more sprawl, more young families, etc etc.;

St Jerome is at the northern fringe of all that, an old established town; otherwise, many high tech and aircraft firms like Bombardier around the Mirabel area, and leisure industries a bit farther north in the Laurentions

traditionally area votes a bit to the left of the rest of Montreal, and less Liberal; going way back to the 1960s, today's 450 gave the NDP leader Robert Cliche a foothold in Mille Iles; in 1979, for a key byelection, the PQ lost Prevost riding to Liberals, a foreshadowing of referendum

as for demographics, quite French, incomes would have to check, same for employment etc.:

http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/ridings/view/riding-105

from a recent bit of reporting (HuffPo):

riding narrowly won (897 votes) by CAQ star candidate Duchesneau over PQ guy in 2012, now not running; CAQ may dig up local celebrity, will announce Thursday;

Saint-Jérôme

Jacques Duchesneau, candidat vedette pour la Coalition avenir Québec,
avait remporté l’élection avec 897 votes, contre le député péquiste
sortant, Gilles Robert. Selon les rumeurs, la Coalition fera confiance
cette fois à une personnalité locale, dont l’identité sera dévoilée
jeudi. Du côté du Parti québécois, l’actuel directeur de l’organisme
Pallia-Vie et conseiller municipal de Blainville, Normand Dupont
pourrait porter les couleurs, lui qui a déjà été candidat péquiste dans
Vimont en 2003. [last bit a bit outdated now , eh?]

sherpa-finn

DaveW wrote: going way back to the 1960s, today's 450 gave the NDP leader Robert Cliche a foothold in Mille Iles

Geez, thats a bit of a strech to size up political leanings today. And if I recall correctly (the 60s are generally hazy) Cliche ran federally for the NDP (a world of difference) and 40 miles or so south of St Jerome in the Montreal suburbs that now comprise the city of Laval.

Hey, if we are going to dig for progressive political roots, - howzabout Fred Rose?! Smile

DaveW

I did say "way back", and yes, the 450 is a large suburban region which "votes a bit to the left of the rest of Montreal" ;

but reflexes and precedents  from 40 years ago do  affect later outcomes in surprising ways, like the strength of the NDP's Charles Taylor in Mount Royal in the 1960s and the eventual 2010 election of Tom Mulcair in neighbouring Outremont, same general area and electorate

Unionist

Brachina wrote:

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/...

 

 Pauline needs to stop telling Quebecers fairy tales about what seperating from Canada will be like. Canada could very well say no to both bank of Canada seats, tolls, and so on. The truth is the roc would be bitter, hurt, and angery and would not be open to cooperation on much of anything and would likely demand various regions and FNs be given the right to seperate from Quebec.

I'm so scared of how Canada will punish us if we dare to declare independence. Thanks for the reality check.

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