Quebec polls and parties 2014

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sherpa-finn

DaveW perservered with: ... reflexes and precedents  from 40 years ago do  affect later outcomes in surprising ways, like the strength of the NDP's Charles Taylor in Mount Royal in the 1960s and the eventual 2010 election of Tom Mulcair in neighbouring Outremont, same general area and electorate

Mont Royal in 1968 ... Outremont in 2010 "same general area and electorate".

I yield to the more determined reader of tea-leaves!

 

lagatta

I think a lot of commie furriner Fred Rose's old riding is south of Mercier, where commie furriner Amir Khadir reigns. Mercier covers a lot of the Plateau, but only down to Rachel. 

Jean-François Lisée has been absolutely vicious to Québec solidaire and especially to Amir Khadir, in his supposedly progressive blog. I (lagatta) wrote a reply, but who knows whether it will appear. http://jflisee.org/quand-amir-khadir-perd-les-pedales-et-son-jugement/#c...

My comment, in case they don't "validate" it:

Le 12/03/2014 à 17 h 14 min, lagatta à montréal a dit : Votre commentaire est en attente de validation.

PKP n’est pas Khomeini, mais il le serait en d’autres circonstances, dans une autre culture. C’est un tueur en série de syndicats, et tout sauf un démocrate. Un exemple bien plus proche de notre culture est le péronisme argentin, latin et de souche catholique. Les péronistes de droite ont torturé, tué et « disparu » les péronistes de gauche. J’en ai connu de ces derniers, jeunes militants comme moi dans les années 70.

Les syndicalistes qui détestent PKP, ce n’est pas parce que c’est un capitaliste, un patron ou un milliardaire. Il y a une différence entre un adversaire et un ennemi qui veut vous écraser. Je suis une travailleuse dite « autonome » et j’ai marché en solidarité avec mes collègues travailleuses et travailleurs des communications aux Journaux de Québec et de Montréal. L’acharnement de Péladeau mine l’existence même de l’ensemble des travailleurs de la culture et des communications.

Unionist

^^^^LIKE^^^^

sherpa-finn

Back to the 'trash ta pancarte' theme for a moment:

Embedded image permalink

 

Stockholm

Its still early and fragmentary but the first poll has been done in Quebec since the Peladeau bomshell and it confirms what I was thinking all along - that by turning the election into a de facto referendum on sovereignty Marois and Peladeau are going to cause a stampede of CAQ voters (who are overwhelmingly federalist) to the Quebec Liberals. Its the second Leger poll of the campaign just in the Quebec City area. They don't have full numbers but last week it was tied between the PQ and PLQ with CAQ a close third - now apparently the bottom has fallen out of CAQ support - but it is all going to the Liberals who now have a seven point lead! If that pattern repeats itself across the province it will create interesting dynamics.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2014/03/12/leffet-peladeau--fait-du-tor...

lagatta

Jeffrey Simpson's insufferable anglo-old-money establishment contempt just oozes out every time he says "secession" (I guess one person's "secession" is another's "national liberation", but secession has Old South connotations in North America at least). However, yes, he does make some good points. One of the most salient, given his editorial-side work in communications, is this:

Mr. Péladeau’s comments about unions have consistently been scathing. But so slavering was Mr. Marois to have Mr. Péladeau run that the party’s platform was suddenly changed. The PQ scrubbed a promise to prevent off-premise workers from doing the work of locked-out ones, presumably because Mr. Péladeau objected to it.

He has worked in the media for decades, and knows that this is absolutely crucial for the rights of workers in communications - and their denial. Rightwing shit and scab Richard Martineau could always claim that he wasn't a scab for precisely that archaic lack of provision in the Labour Code. It makes the anti-scab law, one of the very progressive measures enacted in the PQ's initial mandate (see Karl Nerenberg's article) moot for us. Err, I was just talking to a client. In Europe. That is why I got up at 5 a.m. our time.

I'm proud to say that in my neighbourhood, Alexandre Boulerice and Françoise David, and their respective staffs, joined forces to organise a first meeting of so called "travailleurs autonomes" - "self-employed workers", but this refers more to freelancers than to classic liberal professionals, and our "self-employment" is often a fiction. That is why Claude Robinson is such a hero for many hereabouts.

By the way, Pauline looks very fetching in her blue hijab. Hardly "trashing". The "vandal" actually made her look very pretty. The contemporary convention of public figures venturing out on a snowstorm bareheaded, as they all will today, is far sillier - and more detrimental to health - than any head covering.

 

 

DaveW

Brachina wrote:

 I wonder what the Quebec polls will show once PKPs enterance into the election has been fully absorbed by the public.

as Stockholm notes above, and analyst Jean Lapierre stressed on CJAD radio this a.m., polls in Quebec City region today show a surge in Liberal support, at expense of local CAQ candidates;

if the 450 region suburbs of Montreal follow such a pattern, catastrophe for the PKP-PQ

Marois is getting her wish for a polarized electorate: 60-40 against her

For the record, 3-4 months ago I called the likely outcome a Liberal minority , and stuck with that through the more recent (Dec-Feb) PQ boomlet; one more time -- Liberal minority the most likely outcome.

As time goes on, though, it gets more and more visceral -- I really hate Pauline Marois, she is basely manipulative and conviction-free : first Left, then Right, then pro-green, then pro-oil, restlessly looking for the formula that works for an independence Yes. Only thing she cares about.

Reminds me of some transparent manipulator from TV's Dallas but maybe in more of a Coronation Street package.  Yell

 

CanadaOrangeCat

The nationalist vision must be progressive or it is not worth bothering with.

The PQ itself makes these arguments for sovereignity on a Facebook page linked to its website for now. "Quebec must make its voice heard internationally that it does not buy into the Canadian agenda. Quebec must get out of hydrocarbons completely. "

None of these things are compatible with a rightist-nationalist complexe which will take its orders from Bay St and strip assets. Maybe there was some kind of Faustian deal. That kind of cynicism is beyond my comprehension.

Krago

Here is how downtown Montreal voted in the last provincial election.

(ADQ should be CAQ below.)

DaveW

a thoughtful essay on the transformation of the PQ into a package of contradictions with only one objective:

http://www.lactualite.com/blogues/le-blogue-politique/le-pari-du-nimport...

On parlera encore longtemps, et de plusieurs manières, de l’arrivée de Pierre Karl Péladeau au Parti québécois.

Les répercussions à moyen et long termes sont encore difficiles à prédire, mais pratiquement tout le monde s’entend déjà pour dire qu’à court terme, au plan tactique, le PQ ira sans doute chercher des votes à la CAQ et qu’il en fera perdre quelques-uns à Québec solidaire.

Ce qui est plus clair, par contre, c’est que la candidature-vedette de M. Péladeau complète la transformation du Parti québécois en parti de n’importe-quoi-pour-la-souveraineté.

Unionist

Oh, I'm not so sure about that conclusion. I think it would be more accurate to say, "complète la transformation du Parti québécois en parti de n’importe-quoi-pour-le-pouvoir".

If these neoliberals can get a better deal for Québec Inc. out of their ROC cousins, they will drop the independence thing just as fast as PKP picked it up.

ETA: And I meant to add - note the author, Jérôme Lussier, was a political advisor to CAQ. His whole article reads like François Legault, including the bit about the Rand Formula (Legault has accused PKP of having opposed the Rand formula, to try to soften the impact of Legault's own newly-minted frontal attack against the unions).

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture
lagatta

Yes, I really liked that QS ad. I don't know what the public perception is.

 

Unionist

Me too - and they've got several other Youtube videos in the last few days which are excellent productions, great content, actually moving... How do we get more publicity for them? Not many views so far...

CanadaOrangeCat

La candidature-vedette  de M. Péladeau complète la transformation du Parti québécois en parti VENDU.

I saw some real estate signs which said VENDU, and it seems appropriate in the political field as well.

bekayne
Unionist

Yeah. I'm a wee bit conflicted about this. I loathe the anti-people, anti-woman, and anti-science elements of Islam, Christianity, Judaism, and probably most other "religions", and people should hopefully be free to say that without excluding themselves from the ranks of a party which used to portray itself as progressive.

The more serious charge (IMHO) was that his FB page contained some sort of references to Marine Le Pen, but I haven't seen detail on that.

You won't see this in the MSM much (at least not yet), but the ex-candidate (Jean Ziragobora Carrière) is a 25-year-old (approximately - he's not sure when he was born) childhood survivor of the Rwanda genocide who came here in 1999 and was taken in by the Carrière family. He has written a memoir (in French) about all that. He's a model, actor, musician, and dancer. This is from last year, when his book was published:

[url=http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/regional/montreal/archives/2013/04/2013... life after hell[/url]

 

 

DaveW

I sympathize with the life story of the ex candidate, Rwanda was the ultimate nightmare

 but there is an endless history of the oppressed becoming the oppressors; no one has a monopoly on either status ... 

Unionist

Speaking of oppressors - don't you find it odd that Carrière had to resign as a candidate, while this hateful person remains?

[url=http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2014/201403/13/01-474... Mailloux[/url], PQ candidate in Gouin, stands by her previous writings wherein she compared baptism and circumcision to "rape", and claimed that the certification of foods as kosher or halal imposes a hidden tax which is used to finance Jewish and Islamist warriors.

Now, I have no doubt that Françoise David will kick her sorry ass come election day... but this is unadulterated Islamophobia and Judeophobia, combined with a modern version of blood libel.

Someone explain to me why she is still a candidate?

 

DaveW

I think she should be out, too;

funny, I looked up the Mailloux bio/campaign info for Gouin when she attacked QSolidaire, and found she was a prof of philosophy and hardcore sovereignist, and figured she was just holding on to the PQ for dear life to preserve her independence dream;

maybe she is worse than appears.

... and maybe the PQ overall is, too, something that is still difficult for a child of the '70s like me to entirely grasp

Stockholm

Unionist wrote:

Yeah. I'm a wee bit conflicted about this. I loathe the anti-people, anti-woman, and anti-science elements of Islam, Christianity, Judaism, and probably most other "religions", and people should hopefully be free to say that without excluding themselves from the ranks of a party which used to portray itself as progressive.

None of that makes it acceptable for someone running to public office to say "Fuck Islam" - especially when there is already a chill of Islamophobia rearing its ugly head all over the western world.

Stockholm

Unionist wrote:

 PQ candidate in Gouin, stands by her previous writings wherein she compared baptism and circumcision to "rape", and claimed that the certification of foods as kosher or halal imposes a hidden tax which is used to finance Jewish and Islamist warriors.

Now, I have no doubt that Françoise David will kick her sorry ass come election day... but this is unadulterated Islamophobia and Judeophobia, combined with a modern version of blood libel.

Someone explain to me why she is still a candidate?

She's probably still a candidate because Marois likely thinks that by standing by her she can blow a dog whistle to anti-semitic swing voters and that it will help her get her majority...sort of a PQ version of Nixon's "southern strategy" (aka "racism"). Any other plausible explanation?

lagatta

Yes, Mailloux is a nasty piece of work. I can't imagine her winning in Gouin. She's very unappealing for one thing. I'm not referring to "conventionally attractive" or not - she just seems like a very harsh, grumpy person.

PQ types keep calling Khadir an "Islamist" too. That family clan are about as secular as it gets.

The "kosher tax" is an old slander. Actually, many people who aren't Jewish or Muslim prefer foods with a kosher symbol, for several reasons.  Unionist, would you have more on her? That article was not very detailed.

Jean Carrière seems more mixed up than anything else. I did find it odd that a Black man would feature anything by Martine LePen, but given his name, I thought he was probably of Haitian or other French West Indies origin. Strange and sad that anyone who has been through the Rwandan genocide would advocate hatred of a group, but sadly, that wouldn't be the first time.

Unionist

lagatta wrote:

The "kosher tax" is an old slander. Actually, many people who aren't Jewish or Muslim prefer foods with a kosher symbol, for several reasons.  Unionist, would you have more on her? That article was not very detailed.

I know she was one of the "Janettes". But she also co-wrote this back in the 1990s:

[url=http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/ncfv-cnivf/sources/fem/fem-breakinglinks-defa... the Links between poverty and violence against women: A Resource Guide[/url]

I don't want Françoise to defeat her. I don't want her to have to sit in the same room as her. When asked, she proudly reaffirmed all the hateful shit she had spewed. She should be turfed.

 

Unionist

Stockholm wrote:

She's probably still a candidate because Marois likely thinks that by standing by her she can blow a dog whistle to anti-semitic swing voters and that it will help her get her majority...sort of a PQ version of Nixon's "southern strategy" (aka "racism"). Any other plausible explanation?

There are no anti-semitic swing voters in Gouin. Explanation? There are anti-semitic and Islamophobic creeps in every political party going. Stephen Harper comes to mind - he identifies the Jewish people with Netanyahu, for example. His record on opposing Islamophobia is also less than stellar. I'm not really surprised that Pauline Marois, who is using the xenophobic Charter as a wedge, hasn't yet fired Mailloux - but hopefully she will. Carrière was easier pickings.

 

cco
DaveW

La Piniere is a big suburban Liberal riding, she will likely get trounced;

http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/ridings/view/riding-058

lagatta

But she is a Liberal, simply an Independent Liberal. She hasn't become a PQ supporter.

Unionist

She's a Liberal, and a federalist. And Barrette was a CAQiste until 5 minutes ago. I must say, I hope she trounces Barrette.

 

DaveW

I think the institutional Liberal Party will crush any Independent, no matter how much they invoke a past Liberal affiliation;

make no mistake, mainstream Liberal voters are not into vote-splitting this time, they want Marois out asap

Stockholm

The fact that the PQ is running no candidate in La Piniere and is endorsing Houda-Pepin makes her the de facto pequiste in the race - any vestigial support she has will quickly evaporate and she will only get  votes from the PQ base - which is never enough to win in a non-francophone riding

cco

La Pinière is Brossard, which has a francophone majority. But let me guess, you meant one of those francophone ridings, which vote PQ because francophone Québecers are all virulent racists.

Unionist

cco wrote:

La Pinière is Brossard, which has a francophone majority. But let me guess, you meant one of those francophone ridings, which vote PQ because francophone Québecers are all virulent racists.

That's exactly what he meant - which is why it's best not to engage his profound analytical comments on the Québec scene. But I'm not a good example of stoic resistance in that regard.

Anyway, I'm rooting for Houda-Pépin. And anyone who thinks they can predict Québec electoral whims should email me proof that they predicted: 1. The ADQ becoming official opposition in 2007; 2. The ADQ being annihilated in 2008; 3. The NDP sweep federally in 2011; 4. The outcome of the 2014 provincial election (can wait for that email).

 

Stockholm

I would never say that all francophone Quebecers are virulent racists. in fact i would say that 90% of them are NOT - but the people in francophone Quebec who ARE virulent racists are virtually all PQ voters who want independence since the sovereignty movement has morphed into being all about xenophobia (those are the people the PQ has managed to win back from CAQ with a measure of Muslim-baiting).

Brossard is almost 50% non-francophone and in Quebec these days the PQ tends to get between 0% and 1% of the vote from non-francophones for obvious reasons - so in La Piniere all the Liberals need to win is about 10% of the francophone vote - and in fact they will likely get way more than that.

DaveW

OK, broad and risky QC prediction: Liberal minority govt. on April 7;

but

individual ridings are much simpler, fewer moving parts:

La Piniere votes Liberal. Period. Never voted anything else:

http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/ridings/view/riding-058

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

PQ majority until the election says otherwise.

DaveW

I think they "peeqed" too early ... all downhill from here

Unionist

I don't know who's going to win, DaveW. All I know is that I want Houda-Pépin to wipe the floor with that disgusting Barrette.

But to follow your logic - let me observe that La Pinière has voted Houda-Pépin for 20 years. Never voted in anyone else in 20 years.

And of course, I helped elect Tom Mulcair in Outremont in 2007. Prior to that, the Tories had won one election - in 1988 - and otherwise it was Liberal all the way since at least 1935.

In Québec, plus ça change... ça change plus!

DaveW

yes, you are right that nothing changes in politics ... until it does;

I lived in Outremont in 1988 when it went Tory, first time since Confederation, I think. And Charest's 3rd term win in 2008 broke a cycle of Liberal/PQ two-term alternance that went back 4 decades. (The Libs came surprisingly close to a 4th term in 2012, actually.) If Pauline loses  after one term, it would further break that pattern.

So yes, there will  be surprises, but I doubt the single personality Houda will defeat  the PLQ brand in La Piniere.

Stockholm

The last time an independent was elected in Quebec was 1966 when Frank hanley won in St. Anne - and he was a a colourful Irishman who would get elected in a teeny riding full of Irish voters back in the days when the stakes were low in QC election before the PQ existed.

DaveW

Marois stands by Mailloux:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Marois+stands+candidate+Louise+Maill...

A Parti Québécois candidate’s comments on religion are once again causing headaches for Pauline Marois.

During a campaign stop in Montreal Friday, the PQ leader told reporters she’s standing by Louise Mailloux — who has repeatedly claimed that kosher products are a scam for rabbis to line their pockets and help fund “religious wars.”

Though she made those statements long before becoming a candidate in the Gouin riding, Mailloux said she “absolutely” stands by them in an interview published in La Presse Thursday.

“The Parti Québécois is not an anti-Semitic party,” Marois said Friday. “We have very good relations with the leaders of this community and all the different communities in Quebec.”

The premier’s defence of Mailloux came on the tail of another controversy involving the party and religion.

 

lagatta

I tend to think Françoise should stay on message and let this person dig her own grave...

Edited to add: Today, Françoise David was talking about measures to reduce household debt:

http://www.quebecsolidaire.net/quebec-solidaire-propose-des-mesures-pour...

I think it is important for a left party to show that it shares the concerns of most people.

Seriously; do people worry about the "kosher tax" or about Hydro rate hikes and the high cost of groceries?

DaveW

speaking of 1966, 

the mother of all anomalies, the 1966 QC election -- won by UNationale with about 41 pc of votes, and Libs lose with about 47 pc:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_general_election,_1966

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Opinion+Unbalanced+borders+electoral...

The first election in which I ever voted was in 1966. It was also the provincial ballot with perhaps the most distorted result in modern memory. The Liberals of Premier Jean Lesage were defeated by the Union Nationale of Daniel Johnson Sr., even though the Liberals received 6.47 percentage points more in the popular vote than the victorious UN.

To add insult to injury, that was enough to give the UN a majority government.

The presence of two additional parties in the 1966 race — the Rassemblement pour l’Indépendance Nationale and the Ralliement National — complicated somewhat the election outcome in our first-past-the-post system. On the other hand, the real culprit was an electoral map riddled with inequity. Sadly, these inequities persist to this very day.

Stockholm

This Louise Mailloux is a real nutbar - she also thinks baptism is a form of RAPE.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2014/201403/14/01-474...

 

DaveW

yes, she's dogmatic, but not too far removed from some New Atheists, Richard Dawkins has said things not too different...

Stockholm

DaveW wrote:

yes, she's dogmatic, but not too far removed from some New Atheists, Richard Dawkins has said things not too different...

I got into trouble for calling floor-crossing "a form of electoral rape" and I am not running for public office. This woman has got to go!!

cco

Nobody's commenting on the circumcision part, I see (though Unionist did mention it briefly above).

lagatta

What Mailloux has said banalises child rape, usually considered to be one of the most heinous crimes.

I can see why circumcision is a bit different, as it is a (usually) unneccessary minor surgery performed for ritual reasons, and I know that some Jewish thinkers have called for it to be replaced with a purely symbolic ceremony, but I do feel strange about its outright banning being imposed by "others". Circumcision has become much less common than it was in my (boomer) cohort, when many non-Jewish and non-Muslim boys underwent the procedure. I do hope we won't launch into a long debate about it in this thread.

cco

lagatta wrote:

I do hope we won't launch into a long debate about it in this thread.

Yeah, probably best not to, on second thought.

Aristotleded24

lagatta wrote:
I can see why circumcision is a bit different, as it is a (usually) unneccessary minor surgery performed for ritual reasons, and I know that some Jewish thinkers have called for it to be replaced with a purely symbolic ceremony, but I do feel strange about its outright banning being imposed by "others". Circumcision has become much less common than it was in my (boomer) cohort, when many non-Jewish and non-Muslim boys underwent the procedure. I do hope we won't launch into a long debate about it in this thread.

Circumcision is not a minor surgery, it is downright painful, especially for a helpless infant who cannot give consent or prepare for the ramifications. It's one thing if a medical situation comes up, but there's absolutely no valid reason that it should continue to be imposed on infants against their will otherwise. I do applaud those Jewish thinkers who have come up with a better alternative.

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