Sondage - started april 12, 2012

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NorthReport
Sondage - started april 12, 2012

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NorthReport
NorthReport

Incroyable!

PLQ - 35%

PQ - 29% 

CAQ - 24%

QS - 9%

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/22/quebec-liberals-take-lead-over-p...

But Françoise David, leader of the sovereigntist Québec Solidaire seemed to have triumphed in the eyes of those who watched the debate, with 40% of people surveyed ranking her the winner.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Which of those polls was more recent?  Was either taken after the debate?

DaveW

NorthReport wrote:

Leger / Aug / Aug / Aug / Change

CAQ / 21% / 31% / 37% / Up 16%

PQ / 33% / 32% / 33% / Flatlined

PLQ / 31%/ 31% / 28% / Down 3%

QS / 7% / 6% / 6% / Down 1%

 

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Provincial_Voting_I...

 

CAQ leading, at 37% .... like them or not, that is a huge, historic surge !

 

OOOPs,

after examing the Leger poll table, that is 37 % among DECIDED voters only ... but to lead that category at this point is astounding;

maybe my dislike of P. Marois is more widely shared than I thought Tongue out

 

DaveW

this poll of 17 August is much more in line with consensus polls:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

NorthReport

I'm waiting until more recent CROP and Leger polling results come in before jumping to any conclusions 

Stockholm

Leger had the CAQ at 27% NOT 37%

NorthReport

Leger / Aug / Aug / Aug / Change

CAQ / 21% / 31% / 27% / Up 6%

PQ / 33% / 32% / 33% / Flatlined

PLQ / 31%/ 31% / 28% / Down 3%

QS / 7% / 6% / 6% / Down 1%

 

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Provincial_Voting_I...

 

Tks for catching the typo Stock.

Brachina

I thought that math looked off.

DaveW

... the typo that made Legault PM ! Foot in mouth

NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

DaveW wrote:

... the typo that made Legault PM ! Foot in mouth

...with 104% of the polls reporting!

DaveW

be careful: pollsters publish their data, then change/update this data with overnight poll changes  (or typos  Surprised) ;

hence thethreehundredeight poll I posted above on 22.08 is now entirely revised -- from projected PQ majority to ... Liberals leading:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

The projection has swung hard because of this poll, with the Liberals up 4.3 points to 34.2% and the Parti Québécois down 3.5 points to 31.5%. The CAQ, with 23%, is down 1.6 points. Québec Solidare picked up 1.8 points to hit 7.5%.

With the Liberals now in front in the vote projection, they also move ahead in the seat projection. They picked up 20 seats to surge to 58, five short of a majority, while the PQ dropped 16 seats to 49. The CAQ dropped five seats to 16 and Québec Solidaire increased their share from one to two.

NorthReport

Leger and CROP are 2 pollsters in Quebec with a good track record

When that recent Forum poll came out I was quite sure it was BS

For the first time in the history of Leger polling in Quebec the Liberals are in 3rd place.

PQ - 33%

CAQ - 28%

Lib - 27%

Unfortunately the article does not give the poll results for QS 

Parti Quebecois most popular, CAQ comes in second: Poll

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/08/25/parti-quebecois-most-popular-caq-co...

 

NorthReport

Who won the debates?

Legault - 21%

Marois - 15%

David - 14%

Charest - 14%

 

 

http://blogs.montrealgazette.com/2012/08/25/pq-poised-to-form-minority-g...

 

 

NorthReport

Grenier seems to have an agenda because anyone who follows Quebec politics know that Leger and CROP are the 2 reliable Quebec pollsters.

Forum either rigged their poll or it is a serious outlier. 

And for those of you who don't think polls are rigged at least sometimes, get real as this is the dirty game of politics, and just look at the recent polling in Missouri from both the GOP & the Dems.

http://www.985fm.ca/national/nouvelles/sondage-forum-research-a-prendre-...

http://www.journaldequebec.com/2012/08/22/des-resultats-de-sondage-peu-r...

NorthReport

Le PLQ en troisième place pour la première fois en 145 ans?

Rien n’est joué, mais on ne peut rien exclure comme hypothèse dans cette campagne imprévisible

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357756/le-4-septembre-s...

NorthReport

Still waiting to see PQS results for today's Leger poll which is not yet up on their website.

http://legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/ProvVotingIntentionsinQ...

 

DaveW

analysis from Le Devoir,

which means for me that CAQ could still trend upward if PLQ implodes next week:

[...] tout peut survenir. Et si la CAQ continue sa progression dans les sondages, un effet « boule de neige » accentuant le mouvement pourrait brouiller encore plus les cartes, souligne la sociologue Claire Durand, spécialiste des méthodes de sondage.

Dans une recherche récente, Mme Durand a situé à 13 % le nombre d’électeurs qui votent pour un autre parti que celui qu’ils identifient dans les sondages (l’étude portait sur trois élections récentes au Québec). On les appelle des « swingers ». Et ces électeurs « ont deux fois plus tendance à dire que les sondages ont influencé leur vote », dit Mme Durand. « Ce sont des gens souvent très intéressés par la politique, qui regardent les sondages et s’alignent dessus pour un vote stratégique », indique-t-elle.

Jean-Herman Guay souligne justement que les appels au vote stratégique sont intervenus très tôt dans la campagne actuelle. Ce qui « rend complexe l’analyse des sondages, dit-il. C’est l’effet pervers de notre système électoral, on met de côté ses convictions pour voter pour son deuxième choix. Ça peut fausser les données des sondages et accentuer des phénomènes. »

Jean-Herman Guay croit dans ce contexte qu’un « effet boule de neige » semblable à ce qui s’est passé en avril et mai 2011 au Québec est tout à fait possible. « Mais encore faut-il que M. Legault joue bien ses cartes, qu’il n’y ait pas trop de controverses comme celle sur le financement de Jacques Duchesneau. Pour qu’un mouvement ascendant suscite un grand enthousiasme populaire, il faut bien le mener, comme Jack Layton l’a fait l’an dernier. »

 

 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Still waiting to see PQS results for today's Leger poll which is not yet up on their website.

7%

NorthReport

Charest has really shown his political acumen by calling this election now instead of waiting a year - what a goofball!

 

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2012/08/25/sauve-qui-peut

NorthReport

Tks - seat projections show Quebec Solidaire doubling  their seat count so far and we still have 10 days to go. 

------

People who believe the latest Forum poll - not that much

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/

 

NorthReport

Charest whining bout the polling results. Good to see Leger put him in his place!

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357778/leger-defend-ses...

DaveW

what a roller-coaster:

on 22nd August, just 3 days ago, this site had PLQ/Charest back in the lead: this is equally implausible:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

What...it's not fair that the polls are TELLING people how unpopular Charest's government is?

(btw...anybody want to hazard a guess (assuming the polls in Charest's riding are accurate) as to how soon he'll become the next Tory senator from Quebec?

lagatta

Could be, but I'd be more inclined to see him making pots of money in corporate legal practice, non?

DaveW

NorthReport wrote:

Charest whining bout the polling results. Good to see Leger put him in his place!

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357778/leger-defend-ses...

shoot the messenger, an old tactic and irresistible when you are down ...

wait till polls this week show CAQ neck and neck with PQ, Marois will be doing the same thing

love is free love is free's picture

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/26/01-456...

quebec region: caq 34, plq 29, pq 24, qs 7, on 3

other notes on the regional poll: the adq has the least firm support (47% could change) and the pq the most firm (29% could change).  broadly (and depressingly), younger people support the caq, boomers support the pq, and seniors support the plq.

Bärlüer

love is free wrote:

the adq has the least firm support

The inevitable slip of the tongue...

Unionist

Bärlüer wrote:

love is free wrote:

the adq has the least firm support

The inevitable slip of the tongue...

He meant Union Nationale.

 

DaveW

love is free wrote:

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/26/01-456...

quebec region: caq 34, plq 29, pq 24, qs 7, on 3

other notes on the regional poll: the [caq] has the least firm support (47% could change) and the pq the most firm (29% could change).  broadly (and depressingly), younger people support the caq, boomers support the pq, and seniors support the plq.

I dunno, QC looks pretty solid for them, a regional beachhhead:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/eyes+major+triumph+Quebec+City+region/7148269/story.html

 

 

NorthReport

Duplessis is back!  Laughing

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Lord Trainstation will be thrilled.

DaveW

the bombshell here is hidden in the French vote:

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/27/01-456...

at the beginning of August, PQ led CAQ by 38-25 among francophones;

today that difference is 36-30, and perhaps shrinking.

Meanwhile, the Liberals shrink to less than 20 per cent among francophones declaring an intent: du jamais vu!

 

Elections 2012: Anything Can Happen (tm)

 

 

 

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

dupe post. self-delete.  There's some sort of freaking delay in the posting mechanism that seems to be causing this.  Sorry.

love is free love is free's picture

my guess is that the pq's vastly superior gotv operation keeps the party at ~38% in the polls and a narrow majority win, while the plq plays boisclair's pq 2007 and turns in a performance that gets everyone to talking extinction.  the difference i see is majority vs minority, and that legault's team (an emphasis of his throughout the campaign) is vastly more professional that dumont's gang of loons and cranks.  for those worried about legault, think about the seat-rich areas that the caq hasn't a prayer of getting a seat on montreal island, probably won't get a seat on the south shore, and looks like it'll probably do okay but not great north of montreal.  other than the conservative (small c) area around quebec (i think pq will still win the center city seat), legault's vote isn't that efficient.  33% is a problem for the pq, 36% is probably a majority government.

i just hope that we can take rosemont and sainte-marie--saint-jacques for the good guys, along with gouin and mercier, so that if the pq does come up short against the bad guys, luke and leia (and han and chewbacca hahahaha) can make force the pq to hew left.

DaveW

I can't support you on "narrow majority win" for PQ; I think the momentum has swung away from them enough that they will be scrambling for a minority ...

Bärlüer

Today's riding poll in Taschereau (downtown Quebec city, more "progressive" than other areas in the Quebec region), which puts PQ's Agnès Maltais at 41%, PLQ's Clément Gignac (a "big name" for the PLQ) at 19%, QS's Serge Roy at 16%, CAQ's Mario Asselin at 16% and ON's Catherine Dorion at 7%, might be an indicator that the PQ isn't so out of steam. Or it might mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things.

(Most pundits had previously said that Taschereau would be an ultra-tight race.)

Unionist

I was kinda hoping Serge Roy would take Taschereau... ah well, dreams are free.

DaveW

no new numbers today ???... growl, I am hungry for more; feed us, oh pollster gods!

bekayne

DaveW wrote:

no new numbers today ???... growl, I am hungry for more; feed us, oh pollster gods!

Forum Research:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/30/poll-shows-marois-pq-winning-a-slight-majority-in-quebec-election/

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

QS at 8% in that poll.

DaveW

the last major poll had the francophone vote split 36-30 betwen PQ and CAQ;

this time they are 35-28,

so not the tightening some anticipated, although PQ still declining overall (first early-August campaign numbers on French vote were PQ 38-CAQ 25, with Liberals in between)

.............................

Among francophone voters, who determine the outcome in the bulk of the province’s 125 ridings, the PQ led with 35% support, compared with 28% for the CAQ and 26% for the Liberals. The Liberals were the overwhelming choice of non-francophone voters (67%), followed by the CAQ (19%), the Green Party (5%) and the PQ (4%.)

DaveW

these guys have been very volatile, a week ago projecting a Liberal majority, then 3 days later a PQ majority:

they are alone in placing the Liberals in 2nd place:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

ThreeHundredEight.com

bekayne
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

QS at 9% in that poll. 

lagatta

Yes, we have risen a bit, and this could change the results a bit if we are lucky.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Hopefully, QS can build the enthusiasm even more over this last weekend.  Is Saturday the last day of campaigning, or Sunday?

DaveW

La Presse says little movement, still unpredictable,

but PQ minority the best bet:

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/30/01-4569848-sondage-le-pq-minoritaire-chaude-lutte-pour-lopposition.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_vous_suggere_4570085_article_POS3

 

Le coup de sonde, qui a été réalisé du 27 au 29 août derniers, a permis de joindre par téléphone 1002 personnes, ce qui assure que la marge d'erreur ne dépasse pas 3,1%. Pas de changement dramatique dans les appuis des trois principaux partis depuis la semaine dernière. Seuls les partisans de Québec solidaire ont une raison de se réjouir; le parti gagne deux points, à 9%, conséquence directe de la bonne performance de Françoise David au débat télévisé, observe Youri Rivest, vice-président de CROP.

Une fois répartis proportionnellement les 19% d'indécis, dont 6% de «discrets», CROP constate que le PLQ et la CAQ restent au même niveau que la semaine dernière, avec respectivement 26 et 28% des intentions de vote. Le PQ passe de 33 à 32%, un mouvement d'un point trop faible pour être significatif. Sur les quatre sondages de la campagne, le PQ paraît faire du surplace, le PLQ a baissé mais il s'est stabilisé, et la CAQ voit pour la première fois sa lente progression stoppée.

Pour le spécialiste, Mme Marois est clairement en terrain minoritaire, mais il devient impossible de prédire quel parti formera l'opposition officielle.

 

DaveW

 

barest PQ majority??

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

 

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